Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[Diastole]

Massei's statistics

I'm struggling a bit with Massei's statistical interpretation on p.175 (PMF translation) of the Report - perhaps someone can help? At the top of the page, Massei references Prof. Introna's TOD estimate derived from body cooling data. The TOD estimate is a normal (Gaussian) distribution with a mean value of 2250h and a 95% "tolerance" (culminative probability?) of about 9 hours centred on the mean TOD. Therefore, in a normal distribution, 2 standard deviations should be about 4 1/2 hours from the mean TOD. This all seems reasonable enough.

However, at the bottom of p.175 Massei opines that "it is possible to formulate hypotheses of the time of death that lie some "tens of minutes" before or after 22:50PM". He assigns these hypotheses a "tolerance" which is "near..95%". My interpretation of the normal distribution curve would suggest about a 50% probability of a TOD more than 90 minutes from the mean TOD. I'm not sure how Massei was able to assign such a high probability (near 95%) to a brief interval (tens of minutes) around the mean TOD. Is Massei's interpretation a bit shaky, or was I asleep that day in statistics class?

 

[Katody Matrass]

I don't know, I've noticed the contradiction during the editing of the translation, I also noticed it had no consequence in the judge's reasonings, so I thought of a mistake. It is clear that the location of the phone at 20:18 was unimportant to the judges and apparently never was object of debate as a meaningful piece of evidence.

It certainly is not a simple mistake. You don't produce by mistake a lengthy paragraph of speculation like this:

20:18:12: Amanda receives the SMS sent to her by Patrick Lumumba, which let her off from having to go to work at the ‚Le Chic‛ pub on the evening of 1 November. At the time of reception the phone connected to the cell on Via dell’Aquila 5-Torre dell’Acquedotto sector 3, whose signal does not reach Raffaele Sollecito’s house. The young woman was therefore far [i.e. absent] from Corso Garibaldi 30 when the SMS reached her, as she was walking in an area which was shown to be served by the Via dell’Aquila 5-Torre dell’Acquedotto sector 3 cell. This point of her route could correspond to Via U. Rocchi, to Piazza Cavallotti, to Piazza IV Novembre, bearing in mind that Lumumba’s pub is located in Via Alessi, and that Amanda Knox would have had to travel along the above-mentioned roads and the piazza in order to reach the pub

I think those are remains of an argument that dropped out of the final version of the motivation (because of its' weakness) and remains only in such a suggested but unexpressed fully form.

What that argument was we observed recently in this thread: Amanda was surely not at Raffaele's therefore it is proven she's a liar. Also the film watching was fake, as the film was running while she was outside therefore we've got a deliberate attempt to fabricate alibi therefore we got premeditation.
Additionally she was out shopping for hard drugs / conspiring with Guede

 

[RoseMontague]

The 22:13 conncection means nothing. It is not true that the connection is stronger in tha gardn than from Meredith's window. It is not true that the 300064 cell is an unusual connection. Although I don't have the phone records of the previous week on Meredith's phone number, the judges on the basis of the records reported that connections to this cell were frequent on Meredith's phone during the previous days:

(..)Analogamente, l’mms in arrivo alle 22:13, che trova il cellulare inglese nella zona di Ponte Rio – Montelaguardia, non dà affatto la dimostrazione che a quell’ora l’apparecchio si trovasse già nei pressi della casa della signora L. B.: i tabulati dei giorni precedenti, come puntualmente osservato dal P.M., documentano al contrario che molte delle comunicazioni relative a quell’apparecchio andavano ad impegnare quella stessa cella, il che sta a significare che vi era un normale rimbalzo fra le celle più direttamente interessanti la zona di Via della Pergola e la cella in questione (a meno di ipotizzare, fuori dalla logica, che M. se ne andasse a passeggio in Via Spe-randio ogni volta che dovesse chiamare i propri familiari). (Judge P. Micheli's report, p. 43)

I think it is an excellent point and one that has to be considered (unless you consider, outside of logic, that Meredith would go for a walk in Via Sperandio whenever she would call her family members). I see that you mention judges rather than judge, but I don't see reference made to this in the Massei report. The fact that the defense is claiming it as unusual means there is still some debate on this issue. That last quote that is in parenthesis seems to me to indicate they do not know where Meredith was when those connections were made and also seems to indicate that particular tower had a history of connects between Meredith and her family. In any case, I appreciate you pointing this out and any further information you have on this would also be appreciated.

 

[RWVBWL]

I would be very grateful to know if anyone here attaches any credence to Luciano Aviello's statements that his brother,Antonio and an Albanian,Florio, broke into the cottage on the night of Meredith's murder.
There is also Rudy's diary account of a white car in/by the driveway which he recognised.
Unfortunately I am not yet allowed to post a link.

I know RWVBWL has raised this matter here on more than one occasion but I cannot find any discussion.

_________________________________________________________________

Hi Magister,
Greetings, and welcome to JREF!
I'd luv to talk a bit about this other possible theory, so let's do so, for I sometimes wonder IF Rudy Guede is the true killer of Meredith Kercher...

I noticed this satallite photograph that "Rebel" had posted on PMF,



(Click to enlarge)

and it got me thinking about the location that Miss Kercher's 2 cell phones were found, which was downhill from Via Andrea da Perugia road.
1 was found under some bushes less than 20 feet from the road, and the other less than 60 feet on a persons lawn.
That is far too close to the road, I feel, for a guy who, either walking or running on the side of a road after being involved in a murder, would have thrown...

And so I wondered, could someone in a car, leaving the murder scene, have just thrown the 2 cell phones out of the window? Possible.
I bet that if the phones were tossed out a car window together, 1 would travel farther than the other.
I also wondered if Miss Kercher's never found keys could have also been thrown out a car window too?
Was the area that the cell phones found ever checked using metal detectors?

And then remembering something I had read, Rudy Guede mentions seeing a white car there when he first arrived, as you too have mentioned.
Could this have been Mafioso Luciano Aviello's brother and his friend, attempting to rob the wrong house of paintings? Possible...
Did 1 of them throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's window to gain entrance? Possible.

Keep in mind, I believe that Mr. Aviello says that his brother was after paintings, so if this story is true, I can see them not caring about a laptop(s) computer, nor would the house have even been ransacked.
And Meredith, arriving when a burglary was in progress, was then killed when she saw him and started screaming. I wonder...

Is some of what Rudy Guede has always said happened true? Yes.

Did he come onto the scene right when Miss Kercher was stabbed, and fight with the guy? Possible.
Heck, he could have came onto the scene right as they were leaving.
Did he try to save her afterwards? Possible.
Did he, panicking when he realized that HE was probably going to be blamed for the attack, split fast? Possible.

I feel, that since it appears that Miss Kercher's left hand was found in the air when her body was found, that someone possibly moved her body later on. Did Rudy Guede come back later that evening, possibly after leaving the clubs, and in the late nite/early morning darkness, (when hardly a soul is awake or around), throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's bedroom window and then, when he realized that no one else was there either climbed thru it or came in the front door afterwards. Possible.

I would think that he went into her bedroom to check if she was still alive. I also tend to believe that the sexual assault of Miss Kercher happened postmortem, with Rudy Guede moving her body and after touching her, masturbated himself to climax, leaving a possible semen stain. Afterwards, probably ashamed and disgusted, I can easily seeing him covering her body with the duvet, locking her door, and leaving.

With this in mind, I believe that 16 years in prison that he is currently serving is an appropriate prison sentence for sexually assaulting Meredith Kercher.
But he should have more years added to his sentence for not calling for help...
Rudy Guede might also have information about the person's identity who did kill Meredith Kercher.
BUT, I bet that he will forever keep his mouth shut, for he would probably be very worried, even in jail, that the same fate as befell Miss Kercher will happen to him.

Anyways, Magister, feel free to comment!
RWVBWL

PS-I wonder of something else too:
Who was it that left the blood on the light switches downstairs in the boys house?
I know it was from a cat's bleeding ear, but how does it get on the light switches?
And is this the same person that seems to have stripped Stefano's room of linens, and also shoved his comforter on top of his bed?
Hmmm...

 

[el buscador]

_________________________________________________________________

Hi Magister,
Greetings, and welcome to JREF!
I'd luv to talk a bit about this other possible theory, so let's do so, for I sometimes wonder IF Rudy Guede is the true killer of Meredith Kercher...

I noticed this satallite photograph that "Rebel" had posted on PMF,

[qimg]http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/5301/perugiasatalitea.th.jpg[/qimg]

(Click to enlarge)

and it got me thinking about the location that Miss Kercher's 2 cell phones were found, which was downhill from Via Andrea da Perugia road.
1 was found under some bushes less than 20 feet from the road, and the other less than 60 feet on a persons lawn.
That is far too close to the road, I feel, for a guy who, either walking or running on the side of a road after being involved in a murder, would have thrown...

And so I wondered, could someone in a car, leaving the murder scene, have just thrown the 2 cell phones out of the window? Possible.
I bet that if the phones were tossed out a car window together, 1 would travel farther than the other.
I also wondered if Miss Kercher's never found keys could have also been thrown out a car window too?
Was the area that the cell phones found ever checked using metal detectors?

And then remembering something I had read, Rudy Guede mentions seeing a white car there when he first arrived, as you too have mentioned.
Could this have been Mafioso Luciano Aviello's brother and his friend, attempting to rob the wrong house of paintings? Possible...
Did 1 of them throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's window to gain entrance? Possible.

Keep in mind, I believe that Mr. Aviello says that his brother was after paintings, so if this story is true, I can see them not caring about a laptop(s) computer, nor would the house have even been ransacked.
And Meredith, arriving when a burglary was in progress, was then killed when she saw him and started screaming. I wonder...

Is some of what Rudy Guede has always said happened true? Yes.

Did he come onto the scene right when Miss Kercher was stabbed, and fight with the guy? Possible.
Heck, he could have came onto the scene right as they were leaving.
Did he try to save her afterwards? Possible.
Did he, panicking when he realized that HE was probably going to be blamed for the attack, split fast? Possible.

I feel, that since it appears that Miss Kercher's left hand was found in the air when her body was found, that someone possibly moved her body later on. Did Rudy Guede come back later that evening, possibly after leaving the clubs, and in the late nite/early morning darkness, (when hardly a soul is awake or around), throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's bedroom window and then, when he realized that no one else was there either climbed thru it or came in the front door afterwards. Possible.

I would think that he went into her bedroom to check if she was still alive. I also tend to believe that the sexual assault of Miss Kercher happened postmortem, with Rudy Guede moving her body and after touching her, masturbated himself to climax, leaving a possible semen stain. Afterwards, probably ashamed and disgusted, I can easily seeing him covering her body with the duvet, locking her door, and leaving.

With this in mind, I believe that 16 years in prison that he is currently serving is an appropriate prison sentence for sexually assaulting Meredith Kercher.
But he should have more years added to his sentence for not calling for help...
Rudy Guede might also have information about the person's identity who did kill Meredith Kercher.
BUT, I bet that he will forever keep his mouth shut, for he would probably be very worried, even in jail, that the same fate as befell Miss Kercher will happen to him.

Anyways, Magister, feel free to comment!
RWVBWL

PS-I wonder of something else too:
Who was it that left the blood on the light switches downstairs in the boys house?
I know it was from a cat's bleeding ear, but how does it get on the light switches?
And is this the same person that seems to have stripped Stefano's room of linens, and also shoved his comforter on top of his bed?
Hmmm...

Hi RWVBWL, If I'm remembering correctly the phones were thrown over a wall into what rudy (or whoever) thought was a ravine of some sort. If the phones were thrown up and over a wall then they might not have landed very far away. As far as barbie's book is concerned, I wouldn't put much stock into her description of Meredith's body. Seems to me that barbie does love her drama at the expense of the truth.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

stomach contents and surgery

I spoke for a second time to an anesthesiologist about stomach contents. He said that in elective surgery, they ask people not to eat six hours before surgery. This is because the relaxation of the muscle at the near end of the stomach by an anesthetic could allow stomach contents to burn the lungs, etc. I surmise that the six hour period is chosen to be on the long side, so that large or fat-laden meals will also clear.

He also put the odds of no contents leaving the stomach in five hours as zero. He noted many factors that might affect the speed of clearance, including neural abnormalities, alcohol, pregnancy, etc.

 

[RoseMontague]

It certainly is not a simple mistake. You don't produce by mistake a lengthy paragraph of speculation like this:

I think those are remains of an argument that dropped out of the final version of the motivation (because of its' weakness) and remains only in such a suggested but unexpressed fully form.

What that argument was we observed recently in this thread: Amanda was surely not at Raffaele's therefore it is proven she's a liar. Also the film watching was fake, as the film was running while she was outside therefore we've got a deliberate attempt to fabricate alibi therefore we got premeditation.
Additionally she was out shopping for hard drugs / conspiring with Guede

Exactly. I don't know if a "mistake" on the part of Massei is the correct term.

 

[RWVBWL]

Hi RWVBWL, If I'm remembering correctly the phones were thrown over a wall into what rudy (or whoever) thought was a ravine of some sort. If the phones were thrown up and over a wall then they might not have landed very far away. As far as barbie's book is concerned, I wouldn't put much stock into her description of Meredith's body. Seems to me that barbie does love her drama at the expense of the truth.

_________________________________________________________________

Hi el Buscador,
Thanks for that info.
That is the first I have heard that the phones were thrown over a wall. Maybe I can find reference to this somewhere, I'll dig thru Perugia Shock, unless someone else can chime in.

What's interesting though, is that "Murder in Italy" states that the 2nd phone, which was found less than 20 feet from the side of the road, was under dead leaves and brambles.

Less than 20 feet isn't that far, heck I'm looking out a sliding glass door window right now, and that is less than the distance to where the car is parked in the street along the curb. My sister's lil' kid could throw a cell phone farther than that, especially downhill while walking on the side of a road.

The fact that it was found under some leaves, tells me that:
1) The person buried the cell phone, but not the other one, or
2) The person threw it, it landed on top of some leaves and a bunch of leaves fell down overnight on it or an animal covered it after it was thrown, or
3) The person threw or flung it in a sideways manner, such as out of a car window and it landed at an angle and went under some leaves and brambles.

Anybody else have have any input?
Thanks, RWVBWL

PS-Contrary to popular innocentisti -( of which I am 1) - opinion, there are quite a few gems in "Angel Face" that I had not read of before, though there are numerous mistakes too. Still a worthy read though, in my opinion.

Does anyone else know if it is true that Miss Kercher's "left arm was found bent with her blood smeared hand still suspened in the air near her face."

 

[RoseMontague]

deleted

 

[Magister]

_________________________________________________________________

Hi Magister,
Greetings, and welcome to JREF!
I'd luv to talk a bit about this other possible theory, so let's do so, for I sometimes wonder IF Rudy Guede is the true killer of Meredith Kercher...



and it got me thinking about the location that Miss Kercher's 2 cell phones were found, which was downhill from Via Andrea da Perugia road.
1 was found under some bushes less than 20 feet from the road, and the other less than 60 feet on a persons lawn.
That is far too close to the road, I feel, for a guy who, either walking or running on the side of a road after being involved in a murder, would have thrown...

And so I wondered, could someone in a car, leaving the murder scene, have just thrown the 2 cell phones out of the window? Possible.
I bet that if the phones were tossed out a car window together, 1 would travel farther than the other.
I also wondered if Miss Kercher's never found keys could have also been thrown out a car window too?
Was the area that the cell phones found ever checked using metal detectors?

And then remembering something I had read, Rudy Guede mentions seeing a white car there when he first arrived, as you too have mentioned.
Could this have been Mafioso Luciano Aviello's brother and his friend, attempting to rob the wrong house of paintings? Possible...
Did 1 of them throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's window to gain entrance? Possible.

Keep in mind, I believe that Mr. Aviello says that his brother was after paintings, so if this story is true, I can see them not caring about a laptop(s) computer, nor would the house have even been ransacked.
And Meredith, arriving when a burglary was in progress, was then killed when she saw him and started screaming. I wonder...

Is some of what Rudy Guede has always said happened true? Yes.

Did he come onto the scene right when Miss Kercher was stabbed, and fight with the guy? Possible.
Heck, he could have came onto the scene right as they were leaving.
Did he try to save her afterwards? Possible.
Did he, panicking when he realized that HE was probably going to be blamed for the attack, split fast? Possible.

I feel, that since it appears that Miss Kercher's left hand was found in the air when her body was found, that someone possibly moved her body later on. Did Rudy Guede come back later that evening, possibly after leaving the clubs, and in the late nite/early morning darkness, (when hardly a soul is awake or around), throw an 8.8 lb rock thru Filomena's bedroom window and then, when he realized that no one else was there either climbed thru it or came in the front door afterwards. Possible.

I would think that he went into her bedroom to check if she was still alive. I also tend to believe that the sexual assault of Miss Kercher happened postmortem, with Rudy Guede moving her body and after touching her, masturbated himself to climax, leaving a possible semen stain. Afterwards, probably ashamed and disgusted, I can easily seeing him covering her body with the duvet, locking her door, and leaving.

With this in mind, I believe that 16 years in prison that he is currently serving is an appropriate prison sentence for sexually assaulting Meredith Kercher.
But he should have more years added to his sentence for not calling for help...
Rudy Guede might also have information about the person's identity who did kill Meredith Kercher.
BUT, I bet that he will forever keep his mouth shut, for he would probably be very worried, even in jail, that the same fate as befell Miss Kercher will happen to him.

Anyways, Magister, feel free to comment!
RWVBWL

PS-I wonder of something else too:
Who was it that left the blood on the light switches downstairs in the boys house?
I know it was from a cat's bleeding ear, but how does it get on the light switches?
And is this the same person that seems to have stripped Stefano's room of linens, and also shoved his comforter on top of his bed?
Hmmm...

Hi RWVBWL
Thank you for the warm welcome
I certainly think this alternative theory is plausible.
It would also possibly explain the following:
How Meredith was quickly overpowered.
The unidentified footprints and DNA traces found in her room.
The unidentified footprints found in Filomena's room.
That nothing was stolen (apart from the cash,bank cards and cellphones).
Rudy saying Amanda was not there in his Skype call to a friend.
Rudy's beating in prison.
I also place significance on the breaking of omerta by mafioso Luciano Aviello in naming his brother.
Re Rudy's diaries...
I agree they cannot be totally discounted.
Anyone creating a web of deceit tends to incorporate as much of the truth as possible to aid memory under questioning.
To your very interesting scenario I would add...
The 2 killers may have opened the external shutters of Filomena's room and thrown the rock from the outside, then lay in wait.
Very shortly afterwards Meredith arrived home and they rushed her as she was unlocking the front door.
Rudy could have been on his way to visit the guys downstairs.
He saw the front door upstairs ajar/heard a noise and entered, only to be immediately attacked.
He retreated to the bathroom only emerging after Meredith had been murdered.
He collected the towels, sexually assaulted her, then fled locking the door.
I am doubtful that he did return.
But I agree he will never talk.

Perhaps you would be kind enough to post again that link to Alternate Theories, post 79.

 

[RoseMontague]

_________________________________________________________________

Hi el Buscador,
Thanks for that info.
That is the first I have heard that the phones were thrown over a wall. Maybe I can find reference to this somewhere, I'll dig thru Perugia Shock, unless someone else can chime in.

What's interesting though, is that "Murder in Italy" states that the 2nd phone, which was found less than 20 feet from the side of the road, was under dead leaves and brambles.

Less than 20 feet isn't that far, heck I'm looking out a sliding glass door window right now, and that is less than the distance to where the car is parked in the street along the curb. My sister's lil' kid could throw a cell phone farther than that, especially downhill while walking on the side of a road.

The fact that it was found under some leaves, tells me that:
1) The person buried the cell phone, but not the other one, or
2) The person threw it, it landed on top of some leaves and a bunch of leaves fell down overnight on it or an animal covered it after it was thrown, or
3) The person threw or flung it in a sideways manner, such as out of a car window and it landed at an angle and went under some leaves and brambles.

Anybody else have have any input?
Thanks, RWVBWL

PS-Contrary to popular innocentisti -( of which I am 1) - opinion, there are quite a few gems in "Angel Face" that I had not read of before, though there are numerous mistakes too. Still a worthy read though, in my opinion.

Does anyone else know if it is true that Miss Kercher's "left arm was found bent with her blood smeared hand still suspened in the air near her face."

This would be a good question for someone familiar with the area. Perhaps Michiavelli could answer this or get an answer from someone who knows. Al-Fakh at IIP indicated it was possible for someone to throw the phones from a place served by the 30064 22:13 tower over a rail and land them in the garden where they were found. I was unable to locate that post off-hand but will look again later.

 

[Machiavelli]

I think those are remains of an argument that dropped out of the final version of the motivation (because of its' weakness) and remains only in such a suggested but unexpressed fully form.

Well, it's possible, but I won't go that further. The argument is a reasoning where the judge got the cell number wrong and did not check back, so the piece of reasoning was forgotten behind and not corrected maybe not because of its weakness, but because of its lack of importance.

 

[LondonJohn]

I spoke for a second time to an anesthesiologist about stomach contents. He said that in elective surgery, they ask people not to eat six hours before surgery. This is because the relaxation of the muscle at the near end of the stomach by an anesthetic could allow stomach contents to burn the lungs, etc. I surmise that the six hour period is chosen to be on the long side, so that large or fat-laden meals will also clear.

He also put the odds of no contents leaving the stomach in five hours as zero. He noted many factors that might affect the speed of clearance, including neural abnormalities, alcohol, pregnancy, etc.

Absolutely. I've almost given up trying to fight "counter-arguments" in this area. It truly is not dissimilar to trying to catch an eel with your bare hands. Like you, I have near certainty (backed up with my own knowledge and experience in this area, and ALL the scientific/medical literature and accumulated knowledge) that a meal consumed between around 18.30 and 19.00 will not - under ANY circumstances - still be entirely within the stomach beyond 22.00.

I did also see another proposition that perhaps the pizza meal had in fact completely exited Meredith's stomach, and that the stomach contents in fact comprised the apple crumble & ice cream pudding. However, this proposition is unfeasible for two reasons: firstly, cheese matter and fibrous vegetable matter was found in Meredith's stomach contents - consistent with pizza but not apple crumble and ice cream; and secondly, the chyme from the pizza meal would have been found distributed along the upper/middle part of Meredith's small intestine - whereas the autopsy found nothing between her stomach and the very end of her small intestine.

 

[RoseMontague]

Charlie,
Is there any way you can get a better resolution on this image you posted yesterday?

http://www.friendsofamanda.org/cottage_cleaning_supplies.jpg

I am interested in knowing the names of these products. Any of the italian locals recognize the products by their packaging?

 

[LondonJohn]

Well, it's possible, but I won't go that further. The argument is a reasoning where the judge got the cell number wrong and did not check back, so the piece of reasoning was forgotten behind and not corrected maybe not because of its weakness, but because of its lack of importance.

This is an excellent explanation. I'm sure this sets everyone's minds at rest concerning this matter...

 

[Machiavelli]

Does anyone else know if it is true that Miss Kercher's "left arm was found bent with her blood smeared hand still suspened in the air near her face."

Meredith obviously put her left hand on her wound after she was struck.
She didn't do the same with her right arm, because her arm was grabbed by someone.

 

[RoseMontague]

Meredith obviously put her left hand on her wound after she was struck.
She didn't do the same with her right arm, because her arm was grabbed by someone.

One person could probably grab her with one hand and stab her with another.

 

[Machiavelli]

I see that you mention judges rather than judge, but I don't see reference made to this in the Massei report.

No but I always consider the rulings prior of the lastest as as part of the process. I bear in mind that the Micheli's report itself is part of the file in Amanda and Raffaele's trial, massai had it. I consider as well the subsequent second Rudy's trial which was dealt with by further eight judges.

 

[RoseMontague]

Well, it's possible, but I won't go that further. The argument is a reasoning where the judge got the cell number wrong and did not check back, so the piece of reasoning was forgotten behind and not corrected maybe not because of its weakness, but because of its lack of importance.

Are we talking about Amanda or Massei?

 

[LondonJohn]

I'm struggling a bit with Massei's statistical interpretation on p.175 (PMF translation) of the Report - perhaps someone can help? At the top of the page, Massei references Prof. Introna's TOD estimate derived from body cooling data. The TOD estimate is a normal (Gaussian) distribution with a mean value of 2250h and a 95% "tolerance" (culminative probability?) of about 9 hours centred on the mean TOD. Therefore, in a normal distribution, 2 standard deviations should be about 4 1/2 hours from the mean TOD. This all seems reasonable enough.

However, at the bottom of p.175 Massei opines that "it is possible to formulate hypotheses of the time of death that lie some "tens of minutes" before or after 22:50PM". He assigns these hypotheses a "tolerance" which is "near..95%". My interpretation of the normal distribution curve would suggest about a 50% probability of a TOD more than 90 minutes from the mean TOD. I'm not sure how Massei was able to assign such a high probability (near 95%) to a brief interval (tens of minutes) around the mean TOD. Is Massei's interpretation a bit shaky, or was I asleep that day in statistics class?

You're correct. Massei does not understand what "95% tolerance" means in respect to the Henssge Nomogram for ToD using post mortem body temperature. As you summise, he jumps to the totally unsupported (and unsupportable) conclusion that the nomogram makes it "95% certain" that Meredith died "within tens of minutes" either side of the 22.50 median point. This is arrant nonsense, and yet another example of Massei's flawed reasoning.

The truth in respect to the Henssge Nomogram is that the longer the body has cooled, the less and less precise it becomes in trying to estimate time of death. When the body has cooled to 22 degrees (as Meredith's had), there are very large margins of error in using the Henssge Nomogram - as you say, the 25th and 75th percentile points would actually lie around 100 minutes either side of the mean. And, as Prof Introna also pointed out in his report for the defence, the fact that Meredith's weight was merely estimated makes a mockery of trying to use the Henssge Nomogram with any degree of precision, as does a one-time-only measurement of the ambient temperature in the murder room.