... how else is this woman supposed to judge how any of these strangers she meets are likely to act in a sexual setting?
My inability (or hers) to answer that question doesn't mean that what she's suggesting is a valid technique. It also presumes that there is a way to tell. Do you have any evidence for markers that indicate the likelihood of a man being a rapist? If so, please present them.
Most men don't go from stranger to intimate partner without some sort of interaction in-between. I find the notion that a man willing to interrupt a woman "otherwise occupied" having a higher rapist potential to be absurd, but I'm willing to hear evidence to the contrary.
Since by far the riskiest group for a woman is the intimate partner group, presumably the markers are difficult to identify or they are simply being ignored. Remember, about 20% of adult rapes were committed by spouses.
Part of the issue in my opinion revolves around what types of events we think of when we think of rape. In the NVAWS data we see that the majority of rapes do not involve a threat of harm, perceived threat of harm or actual physical harm beyond the act itself. A small minority involve weapons and/or serious physical harm (more than bruises, welts, etc). What the study did not tell us is the association between threats and actual violence and the relationship of the perpetrator. It seems reasonable to assume that the stranger rapes would be the most likely candidates since it
seems a woman is less likely to be in an intimate situation with a stranger that then gets "out of hand" for lack of a better term. Likewise, it
seems that an intimate partner is less likely to use a weapon for sex. I have no data to back this up.
The vast majority of intimate partner rapes occur during the relationship. We don't know at what point (first sexual encounter, 10th, 100th) it happens or even if there's a pattern. We do know that a significant number are by spouses, so presumably there's an existing comfort level with the person.
Rape is obviously a continuum. It goes from violent attacks by strangers to some undefined point involving intimate partners where no physical violence or threat of physical violence is involved. It would seem to me that the different situations would require different methods of risk assessment and techniques for avoidance.
At the violent stranger end of the continuum the NVAWS doesn't provide any real data for how those events go down. Obviously some will involve break-ins. Some will involve abductions, and those can range from being grabbed without ever seeing the person first to the Ted Bundy style where a polite, clean-cut gentleman approaches an obviously
unoccupied woman. From what I've read those men tend to be serial offenders.
At the other end of the spectrum we have spouse rapes that don't involve violence or threats of violence, and some of the rapes reported to NVAWS were considered a "minor incident, not a crime." What does that tell us? Obviously the man has made it past many levels of screening. What we don't know is much about how these situations go down. Is every man a potential rapist in the bedroom? It's possible. Perhaps there's something about the relationship and/or the situation itself that leads up to that one event.
I don't think this theory is unsound. We recognize that otherwise non-violent people can sometimes snap under pressure or because of a combination of circumstances. The majority of the rapes involve drugs and/or alcohol on the part of the man, and I'm pretty sure physical violence is similar. This doesn't justify it, and I'm making no attempt to do so. What I'm pointing out is the difficulty in identifying those people in advance because they are all around us. They could be us.
Of course, there are countless other situations along the continuum. There are people who put on a good show for a while before revealing their nastier side. Some start with small episodes of relatively minor violence, which I believe the evidence shows is a good indicator of future major violence.
Truth is, I don't know what reliable indicators there are. I can speculate in a more sound way than this woman. For example, for some people the elements of control in a sexual encounter are more prominent. Some men like being physically aggressive and some women enjoy it (same with roles reversed). Some don't. I would say that those couples who are into that are more likely to have an event that gets out of hand. This is
not excusing the man or blaming the woman. It's about risk assessment.
As I pointed out earlier, most of the rapes involve drugs/alcohol on the part of the perpetrator. It's well known that alcohol impairs judgment. The study Hans referenced indicated that the vast majority of college men admitting to rape described situations involving an intoxicated women and presumably at least some were intoxicated as well. Studies have also shown that when a man is aroused, he will make different judgments about what's appropriate. Men evaluating date rape stories while aroused are more likely to view certain conduct as acceptable compared to men who are not aroused.
Putting it altogether when it comes to rapes in the intimate partner category, I would offer that those men who enjoy the physical control are more likely exert physical control in a sexual encounter than those who don't. If the couple in the past has engaged in physically aggressive behavior in the bedroom, the more likely it is that at least an attempt will be made again. The more they've done it, the more likely the element will be seen again. I think that's a reasonable conclusion.
Of course, physically aggressive sexual behavior itself is a continuum. Decorum prevents me from getting into details, but magazines like
Cosmo discuss things like this as perfectly normal. There's nothing wrong with that so long as both parties are into it, and once again, this is about risk assessment, not blame.
Assuming these elements are present at some level, it's not unreasonable to consider them going to another level. That's not to say they cannot be introduced out of the blue - it's just risk assessment. If the man is intoxicated, he's less likely to make sound judgments. If he's aroused already, he's even less likely to recognize what's acceptable. Add in stressors like money, job, and relationships, he's more likely to be violent as well.
It would seem to me, then, that the evaluation of one's intimate partner is an ongoing process. I would think that each sexual encounter with him is an indicator of what may happen in a future sexual encounter, no matter what he says or does outside of the bedroom (remember the study about men evaluating date rape stories).
And while a woman may "trust" her man not to step over the line, I'm going to say that in any given sexual situation, if the man enjoys physical control, is intoxicated, has demonstrated in the past a lack of sound judgment while aroused, and is currently stressed out, the risk of rape is much higher than with a guy who is none of those things.
Again, none of what I describe is blaming the woman or excusing the man. You asked about risk assessment, and I am giving my theory and supporting it with evidence. And since the a woman is many times more at risk with the 25 men she dates than the thousands of strangers and acquaintances she meets, this type of risk assessment provides the most protection.