Recalling that the OP title is "Applicability of Bazant's model to the real world" can I address Tony's recent post where he makes this important point:
...I say it matters where it was after one story, that the 1 degree or less tilt would not produce a significant horizontal misalignment, and that there would certainly be a significant amount of column on column impact and there would have been a serious deceleration, if the collapse were natural....
I agree with that observation up to the last five words which I have put a rule through. The claim "...if the collapse were natural..." does not follow from the preceding. Leave that issue aside for a short while.
The critical issue is the extent if any of axial contact. And Bazant (in Bazant and Zhou ["BZ"]) makes the assumption which is conservative in the context of the BZ model that there was axial contact between the upper and lower parts of the columns. Tony's "Missing Jolt" hypothesis relies on that axial contact to offer resistance producing a jolt. In the absence of such a jolt Tony concluded (my words to the effect of) "something removed the columns therefore demolition".
Opposing both Tony's position and the Bazant assumption of axial contact I have several times made a bold claim. The latest version being:
It is even more fundamental than that in my explanation. The first step of that logic is to recognise that the top block was moving downwards
so there could not be any significant axial contact of column parts.
Recognise that I am drawing a distinct line in the sand to separate the "initial collapse" - the first downwards movement of the top block, from the "global collapse" which followed.
That line is precisely where Tony postulates his "Missing Jolt". The initial collapse has downward movement of the top block and the impact of that with the lower tower to start the global collapse is where Tony looks for a jolt and I say the contact mechanism was not one which would produce a distinct, large, measurable by video scaling jolt. So, as per my previous post:...and therefore considerations of tilt are irrelevant -- but they offer a convenient "red herring" to distract or derail the debate.
The question which then follows is "how did this no axial contact situation arise?" - which has the usual two polarised and opposing answers.
At that stage I did not elaborate as to what were the two answers to "how did this no axial contact situation arise?" Naturally I had in mind:
- No demolition; AND
- Demolition.
Remembering the premise "...there
could not be any significant axial contact of column parts..." I will explore each of those options briefly:
The "no demolition" case relies on the premise that the top block is falling so the top parts of columns are already bypassing the bottom parts. It matters not how they got into that relationship. Heat affected buckling as per the recent picture posted by pgimeno, inwards "folding" of the columns pulled inwards by sagging floor trusses. the detail matters not. The key point is that the top bit of column is bypassing the bottom bit. AND there is no mechanism to put the two parts back into axial contact. AND, even if there was, the column ends are near certainly rounded or distorted so that axial transfer of load would cause the two to "slip off". And, for the outer tube columns, that bypassing relationship will continue throughout the collapse. Same goes for core columns but the explanation is more complex.
Now let's look at the demolition case where Tony's jolt hypothesis looks for axial contact and finds it missing. I understand that this is seen to come about because a section of column has been cleanly removed. Possibly by a combination of "cutter" and "kicker" charges thereby leaving a clear gap in the column but with the top bit aligned more or less over the bottom. If I have that wrong Tony can put me right on the actual mechanism he has in mind for his jolt. So, given this scenario and the top block falling we have two possibilities:
- The top block falls the distance of the gap and impacts column on column more or less axially. Would that not produce the jolt which Tony cannot find? OTHERWISE
- To avoid the need for a jolt - all or most of the top portions of cut columns have to miss their lower portion counterparts to ensure that there is no detectable jolt thus matching Tony's findings. How does the demolition scenario cause most columns to fall missing their lower parts?
Whatever the outcome of discussions of these possibilities I suggest that this thread has:
- Identified or clarified limitations of applicabiilty of BZ to the WTC Twin Towers collapse; AND
- Identified where the paper "The Missing Jolt..." relies on parts of BZ which are inapplicable.
...and going that far will do me for now.
