Who will be the Republican candidate next election

[MattusMaximus]

It's hard to say this far in advance. I thought Hillary Clinton was a shoo-in to win her party's nomination until she didn't win it.

True enough. If you had asked me my opinion at this point in the last election cycle, I'd have said it was going to be Hillary Clinton as POTUS and Obama as VPOTUS.

 

[dudalb]

I agree. Whether or not the GOP retakes the U.S. House, I think the TP folks are going to be a thorn in everyone's side (especially the Republican establishment's) for some time to come. I see them flexing their collective muscle once again in the 2012 GOP primaries.

A thorn, yes, but I have a feeling the Tea Party movement will burn itself out a little by 2012.
I know the Democrat fantasy for 2012 is for the GOP to nominate someone who is unelectable, but that is simply not going to happen.

 

[dudalb]

Tea-baggery will have served its purpose after this November, and will be replaced with the regular GOP party operations that it was standing in for all along. For one thing, it's starting to knock off too many standard-bearers and establishment picks (Bennett, Inglis, Scozzofava, Murkowski, Grayson, Crist, etc). They're going to put that dog back on a leash starting Nov 3. I assume that Dick Armey has wrap-up procedures well planned.

Agreed, A lot of the money the Tea Party is getting is coming from regular GOP sources. If the Tea Party tries a actual take over of the party, that funding will cease. End of Tea Party.

 

[dudalb]

Then you have the possibility of a Ross Perot canidate..a independent who will run on a "I am not either of those turkeys" platform. That could have an impact.

 

[a_unique_person]

I'm inclined to say Romney, he's managed to keep his head down since the last election, which is always a good thing.

Is that code for 'not having an affair'?

 

[lomiller]

Agreed, A lot of the money the Tea Party is getting is coming from regular GOP sources. If the Tea Party tries a actual take over of the party, that funding will cease. End of Tea Party.

The tea party runs on publicity not money. Would they stop receiving publicity without Fox News promoting them? Eventually sure.

The question is what does the teabagger do when they are left behind watching from the sidelines as the Republicans they supported try do distance themselves from them? Do they vote republican? Do they just on some third party bandwagon? Do they vote at all

I kind of suspect they will just stay home and stew.

 

[dudalb]

I might make the argument that November might be a lose/lose for the Tea Party.
If the GOP takes the HOuse, a lot of the urgency to "Stop Obama" will vanish,the paranoia factor will go down,and, most of all, the Tea Party will actually have to produce policy rather then anger. Look for SOcial Security and Medicare to be breakers for the Tea Party.
If the GOP fails to take the House, look for the blame to be placed on Tea Party Extremism having scared voters off,and a lot of the tolerence for their antics from mainstream conservatives will stop.

 

[The Painter]

The tea party runs on publicity not money. Would they stop receiving publicity without Fox News promoting them? Eventually sure.

Of course. It's a left wing media. Remember how the media said Beck in DC was going to be a hate filled bigoted racist meeting. Oops, didn't happen.

As for the next Rep candidate.... not going to tell you now.

 

[The Charnel Expanse]

Remember how the media said Beck in DC was going to be a hate filled bigoted racist meeting. Oops, didn't happen.

Who actually said that?

 

[Trakar]

Then you have the possibility of a Ross Perot canidate..a independent who will run on a "I am not either of those turkeys" platform. That could have an impact.

A set of rational third party candidates might get my vote, there are no rational Republican candidates that I'm aware of, who I could or would support and I certainly won't be voting Dem in either the mid-terms nor from the looks of it, in 2012.

 

[Trakar]

A thorn, yes, but I have a feeling the Tea Party movement will burn itself out a little by 2012.
I know the Democrat fantasy for 2012 is for the GOP to nominate someone who is unelectable, but that is simply not going to happen.

no party really thinks their candidate is unelectable, it just turns out that way.

 

[leftysergeant]

A thorn, yes, but I have a feeling the Tea Party movement will burn itself out a little by 2012.

Haven't we been saying that about twoofers for the last six years or so?

 

[dudalb]

A set of rational third party candidates might get my vote, there are no rational Republican candidates that I'm aware of, who I could or would support and I certainly won't be voting Dem in either the mid-terms nor from the looks of it, in 2012.

Gee ,you sound just like a Bizarro version of the Tea Party....Ideological purity above all else.

 

[Trakar]

Gee ,you sound just like a Bizarro version of the Tea Party....Ideological purity above all else.

What is the basis of a political party?

(my preference would be to outlaw political parties altogether, but that doesn't seem likely)

 

[dudalb]

What is the basis of a political party?

A ability to be realistic and remember that Politics is the art of the possible.
If the past year has shown anything, it is that the USA is not ready to go as far to the left as you seem to want it to go.
Have fun joining the that 1 or 2 % voting for Nader in 2012.
Any third party candidate who would stand a chance of making it will run on a centrist, "I am not either of those guys" platform.

 

[MattusMaximus]

A thorn, yes, but I have a feeling the Tea Party movement will burn itself out a little by 2012.
I know the Democrat fantasy for 2012 is for the GOP to nominate someone who is unelectable, but that is simply not going to happen.

Well, I will say what I usually say when discussing presidential primaries: I would like to see the GOP nominate a good, solid, socially moderate candidate. I nearly jumped for joy when the Republicans selected McCain in 2008, and I then shrugged off any thought of voting for him once he caved to the religious & social wingnuts and selected Quitter Palin as his running mate.

I tend to agree here with the consensus that the only real electable Republican in 2012 is going to be Romney; I still think that Obama would win against Romney, but it would be closer than with someone else like Palin or Huckabee. At least, that's how it appears so far from where I sit.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Agreed, A lot of the money the Tea Party is getting is coming from regular GOP sources. If the Tea Party tries a actual take over of the party, that funding will cease. End of Tea Party.

And that's going to piss off a LOT of people, if it goes the way you think. Kind of makes you wonder what they (the GOP) would have to pull out of their hat for 2012. Should be interesting to see

Then you have the possibility of a Ross Perot canidate..a independent who will run on a "I am not either of those turkeys" platform. That could have an impact.

Agreed. But that's one reason I don't think the GOP leadership is simply going to cut loose the Tea Party folks right after the 2010 elections. They remember all too well how the independence of the Reform Party in the 1990s hurt them - they'll hold onto the TP folks precisely to keep them from going independent. But in the process they will be catering to a shrinking demographic, for reasons outlined in other posts in the thread.

 

[Trakar]

A ability to be realistic and remember that Politics is the art of the possible.
If the past year has shown anything, it is that the USA is not ready to go as far to the left as you seem to want it to go.
Have fun joining the that 1 or 2 % voting for Nader in 2012.
Any third party candidate who would stand a chance of making it will run on a centrist, "I am not either of those guys" platform.

SO fringe right and right are the only viable choices, or merely the only choices the current political establishments are giving us?

In the late sixties my political and economic considerations were considered firmly Right and I was to the right of most Republican candidates and elected officials, my positions have refined a bit over the last 40 years but undergone no drastic changes, by the time Clinton was elected, the spectrum had shifted so far that I found myself slightly to the left of Clinton on many of these same issues,...and now I am apparently fringe left with the same perspectives and considerations. The media and both political parties have knocked things so out of kilter that I don't expect things to get better any longer, I just hope they don't kill us all in their self absorbed insanity.

 

[dudalb]

And that's going to piss off a LOT of people, if it goes the way you think. Kind of makes you wonder what they (the GOP) would have to pull out of their hat for 2012. Should be interesting to see



Agreed. But that's one reason I don't think the GOP leadership is simply going to cut loose the Tea Party folks right after the 2010 elections. They remember all too well how the independence of the Reform Party in the 1990s hurt them - they'll hold onto the TP folks precisely to keep them from going independent. But in the process they will be catering to a shrinking demographic, for reasons outlined in other posts in the thread.

I think the GOP leadership is banking on, if they win the House, a lot of the over the top rhetoric will go away since the Obama agenda has been "stopped",and most of the Tea Party can be eased into more traditional conservitive politics.
I am also curious as to how many of the new crop of GOP candidates are hard core Tea Party types, and how many just said that to win the primaries?
What is fascinating is Angle in Nevada, who was a Tea Party Icon, is now spending all of her time yelling "I am Mainstream" and who has already backed down from some of her more radical statements. I got a feeling she has already been Turned into an establishment Republican....

 

[Tricky]

Haven't we been saying that about twoofers for the last six years or so?

And so they have. There are still a few hard-cores around, but they have no political clout at all. No party and no politician embraces their views. They are like the chewing gum left under the coffee table from a long-forgotten drunk-up.