Finland stops giving Swine Flu vaccine due to increased cases of Narcolepsy

[ShadowSot]

Yeah ... right ... there's another JREF thread for that kinda talk...

Eos of Eons is right, if you got the flu right after getting the shot, your body hadn't even had time to proccess the vaccine. You likely had already gotten infected with the flu before the shot.


I've not had the flu shot, usually don't get the flu. However, if I do get the flu... not gonna whine about it.


Er... to much.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
And then there's this:

It looks like some neurologists have withheld information regarding the link between the Pandemrix and Narcolepsy in order to publish their findings in a scientific journal.
....

This can be easily misinterpreted as some callous act for personal gain when that is not the case at all. It's common to not release snippets of a study before the full paper is ready. And sometimes papers are awaiting peer review before publication.

Clearly as you note, the press mucks up implications of scientific results. And if it isn't some life threatening finding everyone needs to know right now, science just takes time. It's a fact of life when doing science right.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yeah, I read about it in a Swedish paper the other day. 6 million shots, and 8 suspected cases of narkolepsy. Now that's some statistical significance.

It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I had my last flu shot in the early 1990s, and had my worst case of the flu almost immediately thereafter. I also have not had the flu since then.

Yep. Nothing to see here. Move along

Superstitious evidence is always so reliable.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

....
Mind you, it still sounds like hogwash.

The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You likely had a bad immune response to the flu vax, rather then the actual Influenza virus. I suppose you could have had bad luck and not had enough antibodies built up from the shot prior to catching the influenza, but that would be less likely.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU CANNOT GET THE FLU (influenza virus) FROM THE FLU SHOT!!!!

TAM

You can if you catch it from someone while standing in line for the jab.

Fnord forgot to consider that black cat which crossed his path that same year.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I get a flu jab every year, I have for the last ten years. In fact, I had two last year.

I haven't had the flu since I started getting the jabs.

Before that, I had flu twice.


My anecdotal evidence trumps yours, greater numbers.

....

Flu vaccine side effects and effectiveness is one of the most studied subjects of all our vaccines. Fnord just can't think critically about something he/she has developed a fixed belief about all those years ago. It's a common problem with the way the human brain works.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

ok now I am completely lost...someone want to translate for me?

TAM

You can Google English language news reports.

Here's one official press release from the EMA: European Medicines Agency starts review of Pandemrix

And here's the official press release from the Finnish version of the same:
National Institute for Health and Welfare recommends discontinuation of Pandemrix vaccinations

 

[TubbaBlubba]

It can be. It depends on if they have 6 million controls to compare the rate to. We can detect rare events if the sample size is large enough.

It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size.

 

[Mirrorglass]

The vaccine-Narcolepsy connection or the fact one commonly waits for scientific papers to be released in full before leaking snippets to the press?

I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action.

The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities.

 

[George 152]

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

 

[Mirrorglass]

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

A large part of the population is already vaccinated. The worst of the disease is over. There are suspicions of a fairly serious side effect. Why is this such a strange decision?

Well, I do have some suspicions that the motivation for it might have included the rising group-media-hysteria. But it's still a reasonable decision.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's hard to know without knowing the exact details, mainly why the vaccine was suspected. But a quick look shows that 8 narcoleptics in 6 million people would account for about 0,4% of the narcoleptics in the sample size.

With more recent flu vaccine studies, a number of researchers have been collecting and establishing baseline rates of rare occurrences like GBS so we have a denominator. It wouldn't surprise me if the rate of narcolepsy is well established. It all depends on if anyone has collected the data and if a system of reporting the incidence is consistent and reliable.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I was referring to the idea that the authorities wouldn't take the possible connection seriously before the paper was published, or would otherwise dawdle in taking action.

The actual connection I'm still somewhat skeptical about, but I will reserve judgment until the matter has been studied properly. The decision to cease vaccination I generally agree with, as the pandemy seems to be mostly over. The idea of not leaking snippets to the press before the paper is released is generally reasonable; however, the accusations here are of withholding information from relevant authorities.

Once again, there is no reason to immediately notify authorities of 8 cases of narcolepsy after vaccinations.

The way it works in the US is twofold. One, the manufacturers regularly collect post marketing adverse event data. I can and have contacted manufacturers and asked for this unpublished data.

A few unethical incidences have made the news lately of manufacturers hiding negative research results and going ahead with drug production the FDA may not have the same data the manufacturer has. I can only hope this is a rare practice and not indicative of a new trend. It certainly hasn't always been the norm but I do think the Wal St influence on drug companies has the capacity to influence the pharmaceutical industry negatively. If your CEO cares more about the company's stock price than good science, it could be a problem.

The second way it works in the case of vaccines in the US is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system. We are obligated by law to report certain defined vaccine adverse events and anything else that could possibly be vaccine related. The government is collecting this data so naturally they have instant access to it. The data is also in the public arena so anyone can look at it.

I doubt there was any info kept secret from the two vaccine regulating bodies involved here. It's more likely they had the data first.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

People die from influenza.
Are the Finns suddenly bereft of all sense?

There are other vaccine brands available. This is not a ban on flu vaccine, just on one product. We have one vaccine brand here in the US this year that is not approved for kids under age 9 because there might have been an increase in febrile (or other etiology?) seizures in kids in Australia getting that brand. There is plenty of other vaccine available.

 

[Mirrorglass]

Once again, there is no reason to immediately notify authorities of 8 cases of narcolepsy after vaccinations.

That's a bit of a misleading description. We're talking about 8 new cases of narcolepsy - already clearly above the usual numbers in Finland - noted by doctors who weren't looking for the connection. Several more cases were found once people actually started looking.

Mind you, I'm personally not very convinced Partinen's conduct here was wrong. What I was criticizing was the flimsy logic he used when responding to accusations.

In addition, the paper is rather shady all around. It lists as authors several MDs who were not aware of the paper at all. At the moment, my most likely guess is that Partinen screwed up, and is now trying to cover his tracks. Several of his statements, including the one I originally criticized, seem to fit this scenario.

The way it works in the US is twofold. One, the manufacturers regularly collect post marketing adverse event data. I can and have contacted manufacturers and asked for this unpublished data.

A few unethical incidences have made the news lately of manufacturers hiding negative research results and going ahead with drug production the FDA may not have the same data the manufacturer has. I can only hope this is a rare practice and not indicative of a new trend. It certainly hasn't always been the norm but I do think the Wal St influence on drug companies has the capacity to influence the pharmaceutical industry negatively. If your CEO cares more about the company's stock price than good science, it could be a problem.

The second way it works in the case of vaccines in the US is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system. We are obligated by law to report certain defined vaccine adverse events and anything else that could possibly be vaccine related. The government is collecting this data so naturally they have instant access to it. The data is also in the public arena so anyone can look at it.

I doubt there was any info kept secret from the two vaccine regulating bodies involved here. It's more likely they had the data first.

The system is fairly similar in Finland. However, if I recall correctly, narcolepsy was not foremost among the adverse effects expected from the vaccine, and not all of the doctors who made the diagnoses had made the proper reports. If so, this was misconduct on their part, but understandable with narcolepsy being as rare as it is. Partinen's actions are far more difficult to justify; he knew of the abnormal number of cases for months before contacting the authorities.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm missing your issue here, Mirrorglass. Just what wrong do you think occurred and why was it wrong?

 

[Mirrorglass]

I'm missing your issue here, Mirrorglass. Just what wrong do you think occurred and why was it wrong?

First of all, some doctors diagnosed narcolepsy in children who had been vaccinated a few months earlier, but didn't report it adequately.

Secondly, a group of researchers, led by Partinen, started writing a paper on it. They knew there was an abnormal amount of narcolepsy this year, yet did not pass on this information. According to newspapers, the knowledge became public in early june, and until then, no action had been taken by any authorities.

When later questioned on this, Partinen explained that secrecy had been maintained because scientific journals did not publish papers if bits of the research had been leaked elsewhere.

He further explained this choice by claiming the authorities would be unlikely to act properly if the information was simply brought to them, but once the paper was published, they'd be forced to act. (This statement, in particular, sounds dubious to me.)

In addition, several MDs the paper lists as authors were not aware of the paper at all, and immediately requested their names be removed upon learning of it.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

First of all, some doctors diagnosed narcolepsy in children who had been vaccinated a few months earlier, but didn't report it adequately.

But you don't know that. Who do you think they reported the data to? Was it a coincidence and these doctors just happened to be the researchers interested in publishing a paper?

No, the doctors who first saw these patients would very likely be unrelated to the research project. The doctors who saw the patients would have reported the incidents and that's how the researchers eventually obtained the data.

Secondly, a group of researchers, led by Partinen, started writing a paper on it. They knew there was an abnormal amount of narcolepsy this year, yet did not pass on this information. According to newspapers, the knowledge became public in early june, and until then, no action had been taken by any authorities.

With such an extremely rare potential side effect and a potentially deadly vaccine preventable disease, it is irresponsible to start ringing alarm bells on such a paucity of data.

When later questioned on this, Partinen explained that secrecy had been maintained because scientific journals did not publish papers if bits of the research had been leaked elsewhere.

I believe that is a misconstrued comment. There are rules about publishing material that has been previously published. But leaks and news reports are not the issue, copyright law is.

He further explained this choice by claiming the authorities would be unlikely to act properly if the information was simply brought to them, but once the paper was published, they'd be forced to act. (This statement, in particular, sounds dubious to me.)

I didn't read any such thing. I read that the news media would screw up the information if given snippets and the professional community would then not have the actual data to confirm or refute the news media nonsense.

In addition, several MDs the paper lists as authors were not aware of the paper at all, and immediately requested their names be removed upon learning of it.

This should be examined as a separate issue. I need more data before knowing what this is about. All we have are rumors or one kind or another.

 

[Jensen]

I got the flu shot last winter, and since then I have been falling asleep every night. I just get so tired around 11 pm...