Matthew Simmons (1943 – 2010)

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Hubbert came up with the idea of peak oil in 1956. It wasn't Simmon's idea, he just used it for grandstanding. He did have a point about how vague our knowledge of oil reserves is, and there is an incentive for countries to overstate reserves. I will give him credit for that.

Judging from Simmon's comments on the BP oil spill he'd lost the plot some time ago.
 
portlandatheist said:
Are you suggesting suicide so he wouldn't have to pay out for his bet? He has plenty of money to cover for it (currently in escrow) and its almost certain that he would have lost the bet as its very unlikely the price of oil will go up from $77.35 to $200 in the next 4 1/2 months.
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That wouldn't do it. The price has to average >= $200/barrel for 2010.
 
MikeMangum said:
That wouldn't do it. The price has to average >= $200/barrel for 2010.
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Good point. I'm too lazy to do the math right now but in order for him to win the bet oil prices would have to be somewhere in the neighborhood of $500/barrel from now to the end of the year for him to have won the bet.
 
JihadJane said:
And...?
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I loathe to admit that I liked the same book as you but I did. I agree with ectoplasm. He had a good understanding of the politics of reserve estimates and the situation in Saudi Arabia. It's a fool's errand to predict when peak oil will happen but it will inevitably happen and likely very soon if not already. There's probably one thing we can actually agree on. Where we differ dramatically is in both the consequences and mitigation of the challenge facing us. It's not going to be the end of the world as we know it but we will have to adjust and come up with alternatives, socialism and totalitarianism not being one of the better solutions that many peak oilers seem to think will be a good way to deal with the challenge as evidenced with their love of Cuba as an guiding light of perfection of how society should organize itself.
We will have oil over $200/barrel someday as Simmons predicted but nobody knows when that day will come and it serves all of us for not only the consequences of less oil available than we are used to, but because of global warming, energy independence, and so on. Looking to Cuba for guidance as a shining light and believing 9/11 conspiracy theories, obsessed with the destruction of Israel, and so on as many peak oilers obviously do, will not accomplish anything beneficial for anybody.
 
Good start but then you drifted off what looks like right-wing, paranoid fantasy land.


portlandatheist said:
I loathe to admit that I liked the same book as you but I did. I agree with ectoplasm. He had a good understanding of the politics of reserve estimates and the situation in Saudi Arabia. It's a fool's errand to predict when peak oil will happen but it will inevitably happen and likely very soon if not already. There's probably one thing we can actually agree on. Where we differ dramatically is in both the consequences and mitigation of the challenge facing us. It's not going to be the end of the world as we know it but we will have to adjust and come up with alternatives, socialism and totalitarianism not being one of the better solutions that many peak oilers seem to think will be a good way to deal with the challenge as evidenced with their love of Cuba as an guiding light of perfection of how society should organize itself.
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Widespread economic collapse appears to have started already and barely any mitigation efforts have begun.

The "peak oilers" focus on Cuba is because, with the collapse of imports from the disintegrating Soviet Union, it experienced an advanced version of what a global decline in energy supplies might look like. It is hard to imagine that the US would have been able to transform its agriculture as effectively as Cuba did in response to its emergency.

Representing this focus as "love" smells like latterday McCarthyist dementia!


We will have oil over $200/barrel someday as Simmons predicted but nobody knows when that day will come and it serves all of us for not only the consequences of less oil available than we are used to, but because of global warming, energy independence, and so on.

Looking to Cuba for guidance as a shining light and believing 9/11 conspiracy theories, obsessed with the destruction of Israel, and so on as many peak oilers obviously do [bollocks! - JJ], will not accomplish anything beneficial for anybody.
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Why do you feel so threatened by Cuba?





Thunder said:
one less scumbag to worry about
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In what way was Matt Simmons a "scumbag", Thunder?

Your comment is bizarre and idiotic.
 
"In the days following Simmon's death some 400 obituaries appeared on the web, on television broadcasts and in hard copy publications around the world. Some of these were written by people and organizations who understand the threat of peaking world oil supplies and praised Matt for his leadership in analyzing and publicizing the issue. Others were written by hostile skeptics who sought to play down his significance or focused on those instances in his voluminous pronouncements where he was wrong. A few even attributed his death to assassination at the hands of the CIA or BP because of recent anti-BP comments on the Gulf oil spill.

Many of the obituaries however were prepared by mainstream and financial news organizations that are either agnostic about peak oil or hold plainly hostile attitudes towards the concept because of the threat a falling oil supply holds for the American way of life or perhaps even to capitalism. Forced to say something because of Simmon's position in the business community, it is interesting to see just how peak oil treated is in the various obituaries that appeared in the financial press."

On the Death of Matthew Simmons

by Tom Whipple.
 
portlandatheist said:
Are you suggesting suicide so he wouldn't have to pay out for his bet? He has plenty of money to cover for it (currently in escrow) and its almost certain that he would have lost the bet as its very unlikely the price of oil will go up from $77.35 to $200 in the next 4 1/2 months.
Click to expand...

Why the heck would anyone with more than two brain cells think that the price of oil would be over $200 by 2011?
 
JihadJane said:
"In the days following Simmon's death some 400 obituaries appeared on the web, on television broadcasts and in hard copy publications around the world. Some of these were written by people and organizations who understand the threat of peaking world oil supplies and praised Matt for his leadership in analyzing and publicizing the issue. Others were written by hostile skeptics who sought to play down his significance or focused on those instances in his voluminous pronouncements where he was wrong. A few even attributed his death to assassination at the hands of the CIA or BP because of recent anti-BP comments on the Gulf oil spill.

Many of the obituaries however were prepared by mainstream and financial news organizations that are either agnostic about peak oil or hold plainly hostile attitudes towards the concept because of the threat a falling oil supply holds for the American way of life or perhaps even to capitalism. Forced to say something because of Simmon's position in the business community, it is interesting to see just how peak oil treated is in the various obituaries that appeared in the financial press."

On the Death of Matthew Simmons

by Tom Whipple.
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So?
 
Alt+F4 said:
Why the heck would anyone with more than two brain cells think that the price of oil would be over $200 by 2011?
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What is a dollar actually worth?
How many bills would you have to burn to get your car to go a mile?
How many hundred dollar bills?
Is the energy content of a $100 bill any higher than that of a $1 bill?

How many promissory notes a gallon of oil is "worth" is a matter for buyer and seller to arrange.
One more offshore screwup, possibly eight well placed bombs along thousands of miles of pipeline and one Iranian tank battalion could double that $200 in a week.
 
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