Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

[LondonJohn]

Well, well, well.....

A very timely article in New Scientist magazine:

http://www.newscientist.com/article...-dna-evidence-can-mean-prison-or-freedom.html

 

[RoseMontague]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

Next, this stomach contents thing, almost every site I visit, does not even list this as one of the ways to estimate TOD and the only one that does, says that if PIZZA was eaten and is still in the stomach, then the person died 2 hours after eating it, so I guess it must have those English friends of Meredith, no?

http://www.exploreforensics.co.uk/stomach-contents-as-a-means-of-evidence.html

Stonach contents are not a good way to determine TOD, I know they make sense to most of you, but then you are not coronors, so I put my money on the real experts and they tell me. TOD is between about 9 and 2 in the morning.... thankyou

If I had pizza at 6pm and it was still in my stomach at 2pm without proceeding on its merry way, I have a feeling that I would be having a bad feeling.

 

[christianahannah]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

Next, this stomach contents thing, almost every site I visit, does not even list this as one of the ways to estimate TOD and the only one that does, says that if PIZZA was eaten and is still in the stomach, then the person died 2 hours after eating it, so I guess it must have those English friends of Meredith, no?

http://www.exploreforensics.co.uk/stomach-contents-as-a-means-of-evidence.html

Stonach contents are not a good way to determine TOD, I know they make sense to most of you, but then you are not coronors, so I put my money on the real experts and they tell me. TOD is between about 9 and 2 in the morning.... thankyou

There is even variance among the experts for both the defense and prosecution of Amanda and Raffaele concerning time of death (by stomach contents). I don't believe any have pointed to a direct time of death within 30 minutes (I will have to re-read to be sure). Their testimony, as written in the motivations, gives a broad range of time when death could have occurred. They also include different factors which could affect the digestion process.

 

[piktor]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

Next, this stomach contents thing, almost every site I visit, does not even list this as one of the ways to estimate TOD and the only one that does, says that if PIZZA was eaten and is still in the stomach, then the person died 2 hours after eating it, so I guess it must have those English friends of Meredith, no?

http://www.exploreforensics.co.uk/stomach-contents-as-a-means-of-evidence.html

Stonach contents are not a good way to determine TOD, I know they make sense to most of you, but then you are not coronors, so I put my money on the real experts and they tell me. TOD is between about 9 and 2 in the morning.... thankyou

From Sherlock's link:

"A good example of this would be if the deceased's stomach contents consisted of some sort of pizza. The pizza would take roughly two hours to digest within the stomach and if the autopsy was performed and showed that the pizza was still in the stomach then it would be safe to assume the deceased died within two hours prior to discovery."

So, if pizza was had at at 6:00 PM and finished at 6:30 PM, the victim died at 8:30 PM.

 

[Kestrel]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

The stomach contents indicate Meredith died less than 3 hours after eating the pizza. Assuming her friends are correct, and the meal was consumed between 6 and 7, the latest TOD would be around 10 PM.

The lower limit of 9 comes not from the autopsy report, but from knowing that Meredith was alive at 8:55 PM and had at least a 5 minute walk to the cottage. You do remember that the evidence shows she died at the cottage?

Time of death determined from a body temperature measurement taken 24 hours later is as inaccurate as you claimed.

Next, this stomach contents thing, almost every site I visit, does not even list this as one of the ways to estimate TOD and the only one that does, says that if PIZZA was eaten and is still in the stomach, then the person died 2 hours after eating it, so I guess it must have those English friends of Meredith, no?

http://www.exploreforensics.co.uk/stomach-contents-as-a-means-of-evidence.html

The site actually says "died within two hours prior to discovery", indicating it was created by someone who did not understand the material.

Stonach contents are not a good way to determine TOD, I know they make sense to most of you, but then you are not coronors, so I put my money on the real experts and they tell me. TOD is between about 9 and 2 in the morning.... thankyou

Discarding the evidence of the stomach contents simply because it doesn't support your theory isn't exactly logical. But it may be required to support the prosecutions claim that she died within a half hour of 11 PM.

 

[Chris C]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

Next, this stomach contents thing, almost every site I visit, does not even list this as one of the ways to estimate TOD and the only one that does, says that if PIZZA was eaten and is still in the stomach, then the person died 2 hours after eating it, so I guess it must have those English friends of Meredith, no?

http://www.exploreforensics.co.uk/stomach-contents-as-a-means-of-evidence.html

Stonach contents are not a good way to determine TOD, I know they make sense to most of you, but then you are not coronors, so I put my money on the real experts and they tell me. TOD is between about 9 and 2 in the morning.... thankyou

I'm glad you said that you would trust the real expert. Since i'm not a coroner and the coroner is the real expert.
This is what the coroner reported for ToD using body temp and autopsy.
ToD using body temperature: Time Of Death between 18:50, Nov. 1 and 04:50, Nov. 2
ToD 2 to 3 hours after eating Pizza.

Pizza was eaten between 5:30pm and 6:30pm. Mutiple witnesses presented by the prosecution testified to this. I only post 5:30pm because i read somewhere that said one of her friends think she might have eaten before 6pm. Then general concensus is she was finished eating by 6:30pm.

Those are the 2 ToD statements by the Coroner. All it takes is a little deductive reasoning. The prosecution claims Meredith died about 11:30pm. Does 11:30pm fit inside both ToD's given by the Coroner? No its impossible, using the Coroners ToD, for Meredith to have died around 11:30.

Why you might ask? Because I'm capable of doing the math. I'm shocked that people that are able to read and write, can't figure out that if you add 2 to 3 hours to 5:30pm to 6:30pm. You get a ToD thats 7:30pm to 9:30pm. Does 7:30pm to 9:30pm fit within the ToD given by the Coroner? The answer is yes. Heck my grammar is terrible, but I can figure out if you add 2 to 3 hours to 5:30pm to 6:30pm, you get 7:30pm to 9:30pm. Maybe something more complicated is needed or maybe if i do it this way it will be less complicated.
(200 + x)hrs to (300 + y)hrs = ToD x = 1730 y = 1830
1930hrs to 2130hrs = ToD

Separated to try and not confuse anyone. Adding more evidence can narrow your ToD even further.
If you have evidence that meredith is alive at 8:55pm(2055 hrs) and your time of ToD is 7:30pm to 9:30pm(1930 hrs to 2130 hrs) you can narrow the ToD further. With this evidence the ToD would be 8:55pm to 9:30pm(2055 hrs to 2130 hrs)

 

[Chris_Halkides]

good article on forensic DNA profiling

Well, well, well.....

A very timely article in New Scientist magazine:

http://www.newscientist.com/article...-dna-evidence-can-mean-prison-or-freedom.html

LondonJohn,

This is a highly useful and informative article. IMHO it is right on the money on both the strengths and limitations of DNA profiling. I hope everyone takes the time to read about the problems in mixed samples and the inconsistencies in setting the threshold values for peak heights. Note that some of the people quoted in this article, such as Dan Krane and William Thompson, are people whom I have quoted in my comments here and in the previous thread.

Here is a good quote, “Bruce Budowle, a former head of the FBI's DNA lab, would also like to see labs employ a second analyst to review initial conclusions, and all of this data be made available to defence teams.” We are still waiting for ILE to cough up the electronic data files.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...idence-can-mean-prison-or-freedom.html?page=2

 

[Chris C]

There is even variance among the experts for both the defense and prosecution of Amanda and Raffaele concerning time of death (by stomach contents). I don't believe any have pointed to a direct time of death within 30 minutes (I will have to re-read to be sure). Their testimony, as written in the motivations, gives a broad range of time when death could have occurred. They also include different factors which could affect the digestion process.

The prosecution can't agree with themselves on a ToD. Remember they convicted Guede on a different ToD than they convicted Knox/Sollecito.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Oh dear. Some people on other forums seem to be under the impression that issues relating to the Kercher case discussed on JREF, PMF, IiP, PS etc (and any documents/translations posted on these sites) actually have some bearing on the outcome of the case. I think it's time to take a deep breath, and remember that we are - I assume - all peripheral players of no importance in the actual legal proceedings taking place in Perugia.

It's not necessary - from the point of view of justice - for anyone on these sites to have access to translations of the sentencing report or the appeals. It's only an interesting sideshow. The only people who need to know and understand these documents (whether in Italian or English) are the appellants themselves, their lawyers, their immediate families, the immediate family of the victim, the prosecutors, and the appeal court itself.

The rest of us are irrelevant. What we're engaging upon here is a sideshow discussion about a tragic murder case, but only for our own purposes. Nothing that's said or done or posted here will have any impact on what happens in Perugia courtrooms. Public opinion - whether in Italy, America, or anywhere in the world, will (or, more correctly, should) have no impact on what happens in Perugia courtrooms. To try to pretend otherwise is an exercise in arrogance, and in futility. To claim that anything posted on online forums or blogs is going to "harm" or "help" the actual legal case against anybody is absurd and fanciful.

Of course, it's true that groundswells of public support can raise profiles of certain cases, but that's a world away from influencing legal proceedings. And, very occasionally, online "sleuths" can uncover something genuinely new in a case, which may end up having a real impact in a courtroom - but these occasions are incredibly rare.

So, while we all debate (some more openly than others), and postulate theories, and search for reasoning and interpretation of our necessarily-limited glimpse of the case, please let's not lose sight of the fact that, in the final analysis, none of us without a direct connection to the case actually really matters. That doesn't invalidate our debates and discussions, but it places them in the correct context.

Thanks for that LJ - finally something I can agree with 100% and something everyone here should agree with 100%.

 

[Danceme]

One of the most interesting books in my true crime collection is called Unnatural Death: Confessions of a Medical Examiner, by Michael Baden, MD, who was the chief medical examiner in New York City for many years. Now that the people following this discussion have read what the esteemed Massei has to say about the time of Meredith's death, I thought it would be useful to provide the opinion of an expert. I have uploaded a few pages from Baden's book to the FOA site, at the following urls:

http://www.friendsofamanda.org/baden01.gif
http://www.friendsofamanda.org/baden02.gif
http://www.friendsofamanda.org/baden03.gif
http://www.friendsofamanda.org/baden04.gif

The relevant discussion begins at the bottom of page 103.

Charlie, your article doesn't prove anything. Your expert, one of four for the prosecution, was refuted at trial by five experts for the defense. Five high-paid forensic experts disagreed vehemently with the four on the prosecution's side. Anything familiar here?

___________________

Thanks for the link Charlie.

Since you didn't do it, permit me to quote the most relevant passage:

"Certain extraordinary situations---the prolonged terror of a kidnapping or rape---would slow digestion considerably...." (My emphasis.)

Do you suppose Meredith could have suffered prolonged terror? I do.

///

Exactly! If the TOD is so imprecise based on stomach contents as countless experts contend,and then she was terrorized, I think it's very reasonable not to follow generalized rules for normal digestion in a normal relaxed person.

 

[Chris C]

Now I'm a little curious about this TOD thing your talking about. Almost everywhere I look for info on this, I read it is only possible to give TOD to within 4 hours of a death after at least 10 hrs has passed, yet most of you have it down to a 1/2 hour. 9:00 - 9:30 ????

The stomach contents indicate Meredith died less than 3 hours after eating the pizza. Assuming her friends are correct, and the meal was consumed between 6 and 7, the latest TOD would be around 10 PM.

The lower limit of 9 comes not from the autopsy report, but from knowing that Meredith was alive at 8:55 PM and had at least a 5 minute walk to the cottage. You do remember that the evidence shows she died at the cottage?

Time of death determined from a body temperature measurement taken 24 hours later is as inaccurate as you claimed.



The site actually says "died within two hours prior to discovery", indicating it was created by someone who did not understand the material.



Discarding the evidence of the stomach contents simply because it doesn't support your theory isn't exactly logical. But it may be required to support the prosecutions claim that she died within a half hour of 11 PM.

I'm betting the "prior to discovery" was an oversite when writing the article. Regardless its just another site that talks about how long it takes for food to be processed in the stomach. There is a huge difference between roughly 2 hours and roughly 5 hours. The scientific community says food is processed in the stomach in 90 minutes to 3 hours. Mignini says food is processed in the stomach in 5 to 6 hours.

 

[Sherlock Holmes]

Oh, just so you all know, I have no problem with the TOD being between 9 and 9:30 because I believe it was Amanda and Rudie alone who were at the cottage when Meredith was murdered, RS was dragged into it later - the time of death makes no difference in my theory.....

 

[LondonJohn]

LondonJohn,

This is a highly useful and informative article. IMHO it is right on the money on both the strengths and limitations of DNA profiling. I hope everyone takes the time to read about the problems in mixed samples and the inconsistencies in setting the threshold values for peak heights. Note that some of the people quoted in this article, such as Dan Krane and William Thompson, are people whom I have quoted in my comments here and in the previous thread.

Here is a good quote, “Bruce Budowle, a former head of the FBI's DNA lab, would also like to see labs employ a second analyst to review initial conclusions, and all of this data be made available to defence teams.” We are still waiting for ILE to cough up the electronic data files.

http://www.newscientist.com/article...idence-can-mean-prison-or-freedom.html?page=2

Indeed. Quite a lot of stuff in this article resonates strongly. Take this passage, for instance:

"Labs must also take steps to avoid bias. Butler says that some labs continue to insist upon seeing suspect profiles before analysing evidence from the crime scene, which could lead to biased decision-making (see "Crime Scene Investigation: Impartiality"). Analysts also often know too much about a suspect and other evidence to be impartial, and public labs often have close ties to police. "Crime labs, including DNA labs, should not be under the control of a law enforcement agency," says one US analyst, who wished to remain anonymous. "We are scientists, not cops or prosecutors."

In our survey using the Georgia sample, respondents were blinded to contextual information about the case. Larry Mueller of the University of California in Irvine says we may have seen different results if the data had been presented to them by police officers or prosecution lawyers. "The difference between you giving them the data and saying 'what do you make of it?' and the local district attorney giving them the data and saying: 'We've arrested someone, is his profile in here?' is huge," he says."

Does this remind anyone of a certain case from Perugia in 2007......?

 

[Chris C]

Charlie, your article doesn't prove anything. Your expert, one of four for the prosecution, was refuted at trial by five experts for the defense. Five high-paid forensic experts disagreed vehemently with the four on the prosecution's side. Anything familiar here?




Exactly! If the TOD is so imprecise based on stomach contents as countless experts contend,and then she was terrorized, I think it's very reasonable not to follow generalized rules for normal digestion in a normal relaxed person.

You can't reverse the breaking down of the food in the stomach. If she wasn't terrorized until after her food was digested for 3 hours, then her food digested for 3 hours. If your saying digestive system stopped when she was terrorized, that still puts her being terrorized within a time frame in which neither Knox or Sollecito could have been present.

 

[Kestrel]

Exactly! If the TOD is so imprecise based on stomach contents as countless experts contend,and then she was terrorized, I think it's very reasonable not to follow generalized rules for normal digestion in a normal relaxed person.

Watching a chick flick like The Notebook with three friends doesn't really equate to being terrorized.
Meredith's terror had to start after she left Sophie at 8:55 PM, and before her stomach would have been emptied under normal relaxed circumstances.

Your theory still doesn't allow Amanda and Raffaele to participate.

 

[Malkmus]

Exactly! If the TOD is so imprecise based on stomach contents as countless experts contend,and then she was terrorized, I think it's very reasonable not to follow generalized rules for normal digestion in a normal relaxed person.

That equation doesn't make any difference in this case though, since we know Meredith wasn't "terrorized" until at least three hours after eating. For what you're saying to have worked the act of restraining her and inflicting the 40 wounds would have had to happen over the course of 2 and a half hours, from approximately 9:00 until 11:30. But that obviously doesn't fit. If the acts against her had started when the prosecution alleges they did (somewhere around 11:00) then the food in her stomach would have already had about 5 hours to digest "normally".

 

[Kevin_Lowe]

Exactly! If the TOD is so imprecise based on stomach contents as countless experts contend,and then she was terrorized, I think it's very reasonable not to follow generalized rules for normal digestion in a normal relaxed person.

If Meredith had been terrorized from 6:30 until 9pm you, Fine and Piktor would have a very good point. However we know she was not, and as LondonJohn points out terrorising someone doesn't magically reverse the process of digestion.

Terror starting at 9pm could not push back the time of death substantially, and in any case Amanda and Raffaele were at home until at least 9:46pm plus travel time. It's still not physically possible for them to have been there while Meredith was terrorised or murdered.

From Sherlock's link:

"A good example of this would be if the deceased's stomach contents consisted of some sort of pizza. The pizza would take roughly two hours to digest within the stomach and if the autopsy was performed and showed that the pizza was still in the stomach then it would be safe to assume the deceased died within two hours prior to discovery."

So, if pizza was had at at 6:00 PM and finished at 6:30 PM, the victim died at 8:30 PM.

If it wasn't for witness testimony combined with the fact Meredith was murdered at her home, which together show her to be alive until 9pm, an 8:30pm time of death wouldn't be out of the question based on the stomach evidence. The witness testimony limits Meredith's time of death to the later end of the plausible range for the state of her stomach contents.

 

[HumanityBlues]

___________________

Thanks for the link Charlie.

Since you didn't do it, permit me to quote the most relevant passage:

"Certain extraordinary situations---the prolonged terror of a kidnapping or rape---would slow digestion considerably...." (My emphasis.)

Do you suppose Meredith could have suffered prolonged terror? I do.

///

You also supposed pepper spray was illegal in Seattle, Washington. You were wrong, though you still have not admitted it.....

 

[Chris C]

Oh, just so you all know, I have no problem with the TOD being between 9 and 9:30 because I believe it was Amanda and Rudie alone who were at the cottage when Meredith was murdered, RS was dragged into it later - the time of death makes no difference in my theory.....

Amanda also has an Alibi other than Sollecito that makes it near impossible to be present for a ToD between 9 and 9:30

 

[Chris C]

If Meredith had been terrorized from 6:30 until 9pm you, Fine and Piktor would have a very good point. However we know she was not, and as LondonJohn points out terrorising someone doesn't magically reverse the process of digestion.

Terror starting at 9pm could not push back the time of death substantially, and in any case Amanda and Raffaele were at home until at least 9:46pm plus travel time. It's still not physically possible for them to have been there while Meredith was terrorised or murdered.



If it wasn't for witness testimony combined with the fact Meredith was murdered at her home, which together show her to be alive until 9pm, an 8:30pm time of death wouldn't be out of the question based on the stomach evidence. The witness testimony limits Meredith's time of death to the later end of the plausible range for the state of her stomach contents.

I seriously dont understand how the girl that says she walked Meredith halfway home, wasn't more of a suspect than Knox/Sollecito. Knox/Sollecito had a better alibi than that girl. After all ,she was in Meredith's physical presence during the Time of Death window. I mean, according to the ToD from the autopsy its very possible Kercher died within 5 mins of the last time she says she saw Meredith. How does she manage to get an alibi in 5 minutes. Like i have said before though, I dont think her friend did it, I'm just showing that she should have been more of a suspect than knox.