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US authorities framed al-Megrahi for the destruction of Pan Am 103
- Thread starter Rolfe
- Start date
Rolfe
Adult human female
Well, we seem to be pleading "no contest" to the proposition that the US authorities framed Megrahi for that crime, by bribing Giaka, and also the Gaucis, to give evidence to incriminate him. Maybe we should have a look at the real conspiracy theories and see if some counter-arguments can be mustered.
There are three specific areas of fact where conspiracy to pervert the course of this investigation may have happened, and these are
That's the real biggie, and I don't have concrete answers at all. However, the first step is to examine how strong the evidence is for shenanigans having happened in the three areas I listed above.
I'll take them one at a time.
Rolfe.
There are three specific areas of fact where conspiracy to pervert the course of this investigation may have happened, and these are
- The MST-13 timer tragment
- The identity of the radio-cassette player
- The cover-up at Frankfurt
That's the real biggie, and I don't have concrete answers at all. However, the first step is to examine how strong the evidence is for shenanigans having happened in the three areas I listed above.
I'll take them one at a time.
Rolfe.
Rolfe
Adult human female
I'm nowhere near the end of the road with this. There are other threads on Kelly, if you want to search for them. I think the Distalgesic probably did it.
Rolfe.
Hallo Alfie
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Breath dammit breath
Rolfe
Adult human female
The MST-13 timer
Initial assumption regarding the trigger for the Lockerbie bomb was that it was a simple barometric device, one of the items known to be used by the PFLP-GC. These were based on capacitance, and the time taken for a capacitor to charge. These things incorporated an aneroid barometer (altimeter) and were safe indefinitely at ground level. When the pressure dropped to the equivalent of about 8,000 feet above sea level, the contact would close and the capacitor would start to charge. Once the capacitor was charged, it would discharge, triggering the explosion.
These things (sometimes called "ice-cube timers") couldn't be altered by the operator, and the time of the explosion following the drop in pressure was essentially fixed at around 30 to 40 minutes. Therefore, triggering the bomb way out over the Atlantic wasn't an option, but the upside was that the explosion would always occur while the plane was in the air. Maid of the Seas blew apart at 19.03 GMT, 38 minutes after leaving the tarmac at Heathrow.
This was a bit of a problem when considering either a Malta or a Frankfurt introduction. With that sort of device, the first take-off would trigger the explosion and the thing would never have got as far as Heathrow. The investigation never really addressed this all the time they were pursuing the PFLP-GC but at the same time denying the device could have been introduced at Heathrow.
The MST-13 fragment, when it was finally identified, changed all this. That instrument is a simple digital timer. It was far more versatile in a way than the ice-cube device, in that it could be set to trigger exactly when the explosion was wanted - weeks in advance if necessary. However, it would explode at that time irrespective of where the device was - in flight, or on the tarmac, or in a baggage store. It would explain how the device could have been loaded at Malta and negotiated two feeder flights without exploding.
It was also part of a very small manufacturing run, only 20 items, all of which were said to have been sold to Libya.
And it has the most bizarre provenance of any piece of evidence in the history of detection.
Another real oddity is the fact that absolutely no attention was paid to the "fragment of green circuit board" at the time. It's sitting there screaming "I'm a clue, look at me", and nobody does anything. It could have been another fragment from the radio-cassette player, some bits of circuit board having already been found from that. At this time, the RARDE scientists were going mad looking for more such pieces to confirm the exact model of the radio. Another piece, smaller and less distinctive than this, sent them into ecstasies when it was found a few weeks later. Or if it wasn't part of the radio, then it was likely to be part of the IED itself. But nothing. It was just filed away.
In April the fragment was taken to Germany to the Siemens factory, where it was examined further including being cut into two pieces and a sliver removed from one edge. Still no identification.
In June there was another case conference with the Americans, but the Scots were still reluctant to involve them in the identification. However, on this occasion Tom Thurman of the FBI got hold of a photograph of the fragment. As the Scots were departing, he took it to a colleague in the CIA, a man going by the pseudonym Orkin in the records. Orkin went straight to a file and found a complete timer which matched the fragment. This news was telephoned back to Britain, and the Scots contingent pretty much had to turn on their heels at Heathrow and go back to America. Thurman had had the photograph for less than 48 hours (although later, in a TV interview, he waxes lyrical about the months he spent trawling through a gadzillion files to identify the thing....).
Although Thurman says (Lockerbie Revisited, I think) that they knew pretty much immediately that the manufacturer was MEBO of Switzerland, the investigators spent several more weeks checking out other leads "just so we didn't miss anything", before finally fetching up on Edwin Bollier's doorstep in September (I think). Edwin's accounts of these timers (as of everything else) are varied and imaginative, however, the bottom line seems to be that he supplied 20 of them to Libya in 1986. Two had subsequently surfaced in Togo and two more in Senegal, which was where the CIA sample had come from.
Coincidentally, Tom Thurman also left the FBI forensics service under a cloud some time later, in the middle of a scandal about fabricated evidence. He went into teaching.
The conspiracy theory version of this is that the fragment was only fabricated in the summer of 1989, and the memo of 15th September is the first real record of its existence. That Tom Thurman and his CIA mate Orkin identified it so fast because they already knew what it was.
I've got an open mind on this, though rather a suspicious one I have to say. So, discuss.
Rofe.
Initial assumption regarding the trigger for the Lockerbie bomb was that it was a simple barometric device, one of the items known to be used by the PFLP-GC. These were based on capacitance, and the time taken for a capacitor to charge. These things incorporated an aneroid barometer (altimeter) and were safe indefinitely at ground level. When the pressure dropped to the equivalent of about 8,000 feet above sea level, the contact would close and the capacitor would start to charge. Once the capacitor was charged, it would discharge, triggering the explosion.
These things (sometimes called "ice-cube timers") couldn't be altered by the operator, and the time of the explosion following the drop in pressure was essentially fixed at around 30 to 40 minutes. Therefore, triggering the bomb way out over the Atlantic wasn't an option, but the upside was that the explosion would always occur while the plane was in the air. Maid of the Seas blew apart at 19.03 GMT, 38 minutes after leaving the tarmac at Heathrow.
This was a bit of a problem when considering either a Malta or a Frankfurt introduction. With that sort of device, the first take-off would trigger the explosion and the thing would never have got as far as Heathrow. The investigation never really addressed this all the time they were pursuing the PFLP-GC but at the same time denying the device could have been introduced at Heathrow.
The MST-13 fragment, when it was finally identified, changed all this. That instrument is a simple digital timer. It was far more versatile in a way than the ice-cube device, in that it could be set to trigger exactly when the explosion was wanted - weeks in advance if necessary. However, it would explode at that time irrespective of where the device was - in flight, or on the tarmac, or in a baggage store. It would explain how the device could have been loaded at Malta and negotiated two feeder flights without exploding.
It was also part of a very small manufacturing run, only 20 items, all of which were said to have been sold to Libya.
And it has the most bizarre provenance of any piece of evidence in the history of detection.
- A rag of grey cloth which turned out to be a shirt collar was picked up in a field behind Blinkbonny Farm near Newcastleton, during a routine search on 13th January 1989.
- The evidence label was signed by DC Gilchrist as the actual finder and DC McColm as the corroborative witness (the team leader to whom the individual searchers showed their finds, to fulfil the Scots Law requirement for two witnesses).
- The label was later seen to have originally read "cloth", but to have been changed to "debris (charred)" by over-writing and re-forming the original letters. Proper procedure for changing labels is to cross out the original, write the new word beside it and initial the alteration. This had not been done. http://www.mebocom-defilee.ch/2008/995/995-1.png, http://www.mebocom-defilee.ch/2008/995/995-2.png
- DC McColm is described (by John Crawford) as having secured a cushy desk job and very seldom going out in the cold and rain to pick stuff up. He also demonstrated a cavalier disregard for chain of custody, preferring to keep his office tidy rather than wait for paperwork to be properly completed.
- DC Gilchrist is described (press report) as being extremely nervous about giving evidence at Zeist. He was completely unable to explain the alteration on the label. His evidence was described in the court judgement as "at best confusing, at worst evasive".
- The item next surfaces at RARDE in Kent on 12th May, when the contents of the bag were examined by Thomas Hayes. He found items of debris embedded in the cloth - a tiny wad of paper, some pieces of black plastic, a small piece of wire, and "a fragment of green circuit board".
- A photograph was taken, apparently using a professional-quality polaroid. All copies in existence are copies of the same original print. http://i133.photobucket.com/albums/q62/chainsawmoth/127-911/2_photo_Hayes_notes.jpg
- He then described the findings in note form and also drew the paper fragment which he had teased out into its individual leaves. http://www.mebocom-defilee.ch/2009/examination.jpg
- This page is numbered 51. However, so is the following page, but that has been changed to 52. Altogether five pages are re-numbered in this way, before the pagination returns to normal. In addition, the dates on the pages are inconsistent, with 15th May beginning on page 50 and continuing on (new) page 52. (I think, this is detailed in another thread.)
Another real oddity is the fact that absolutely no attention was paid to the "fragment of green circuit board" at the time. It's sitting there screaming "I'm a clue, look at me", and nobody does anything. It could have been another fragment from the radio-cassette player, some bits of circuit board having already been found from that. At this time, the RARDE scientists were going mad looking for more such pieces to confirm the exact model of the radio. Another piece, smaller and less distinctive than this, sent them into ecstasies when it was found a few weeks later. Or if it wasn't part of the radio, then it was likely to be part of the IED itself. But nothing. It was just filed away.
- It next surfaces on 15th September. On that date Allan Feraday sent pictures of it (either the original polaroid or new ones) to DCI Williamson in Scotland, with a covering note asking if his "lads and lassies" (the SCRB, presumably) could identify it. http://www.mebocom-defilee.ch/2008/Memo-Feradey.jpg
- This was the month when Hayes left RARDE under a cloud, in relation to the findings of the Birmingham Six enquiry, in which he drew criticism for having fabricated, or at least seriously sexed-up evidence that led to that wrongful conviction. He remained as a consultant until some time in 1990, but eventually retrained as a chiropodist (he had a PhD in his original field of electronics).
In April the fragment was taken to Germany to the Siemens factory, where it was examined further including being cut into two pieces and a sliver removed from one edge. Still no identification.
In June there was another case conference with the Americans, but the Scots were still reluctant to involve them in the identification. However, on this occasion Tom Thurman of the FBI got hold of a photograph of the fragment. As the Scots were departing, he took it to a colleague in the CIA, a man going by the pseudonym Orkin in the records. Orkin went straight to a file and found a complete timer which matched the fragment. This news was telephoned back to Britain, and the Scots contingent pretty much had to turn on their heels at Heathrow and go back to America. Thurman had had the photograph for less than 48 hours (although later, in a TV interview, he waxes lyrical about the months he spent trawling through a gadzillion files to identify the thing....).
Although Thurman says (Lockerbie Revisited, I think) that they knew pretty much immediately that the manufacturer was MEBO of Switzerland, the investigators spent several more weeks checking out other leads "just so we didn't miss anything", before finally fetching up on Edwin Bollier's doorstep in September (I think). Edwin's accounts of these timers (as of everything else) are varied and imaginative, however, the bottom line seems to be that he supplied 20 of them to Libya in 1986. Two had subsequently surfaced in Togo and two more in Senegal, which was where the CIA sample had come from.
Coincidentally, Tom Thurman also left the FBI forensics service under a cloud some time later, in the middle of a scandal about fabricated evidence. He went into teaching.
The conspiracy theory version of this is that the fragment was only fabricated in the summer of 1989, and the memo of 15th September is the first real record of its existence. That Tom Thurman and his CIA mate Orkin identified it so fast because they already knew what it was.
I've got an open mind on this, though rather a suspicious one I have to say. So, discuss.
Rofe.
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Caustic Logic
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Please do. I was preparing to re-post it to the Divide as-is. You might dig the updated top-post.
Terribly sorry. I realized after I should have had a warning. For my part, that's the closest I'll let myself get into a prolonged verbal fistfight. I'm willing to hit back, just not to waste much time on it. The wee beastie is on ignore, but yeah, I couldn't do it right off the bat.
What, someone's smells bad? (the verb version ends in "e")
Kevin_Lowe
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Possibly people don't have much to say because you've got all your ducks so nicely lined up that there's really nothing to argue about, Rolfe.
Megrahi was framed, and he didn't plant the bomb. There's no more to it than that.
How we get the news out to the foaming masses is a problem I don't have an answer to.
Megrahi was framed, and he didn't plant the bomb. There's no more to it than that.
How we get the news out to the foaming masses is a problem I don't have an answer to.
Hallo Alfie
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I cant help but think that if there was something in the line up of the ducks, then someone in the media would run with it and give it attention. Why isn't this happening?
Rolfe
Adult human female
The ducks in part one seem to line up perfectly, I agree. Megrahi was framed in the plain vanilla manner, by "inducing" witnesses to testify against him after he was identified as being a possible suspect, and ignoring the evidence that said he didn't do it. This has happened time and time again in the annals of criminal justice, nothing very remarkable about it except for the high-profile nature of the case, the unusually blatant way the judges went along with the frame-up despite the gaping holes in it, and the subsequent complications involving the compassionate release.
I'm guessing we have to take silence for assent on that one, because the baying mob who were all over threads suggesting he didn't do it this time last year have gone quiet as little mice. (It would be nice if even one or two of these people were to come by and say, OK, I see what you mean, maybe I was a little hasty last year, but that's not human nature I suppose.)
I'm trying to move on to part two, where the ducks are still swimming around somewhat randomly. The suspicions that evidence was planted to turn the attention of the investigation away from the PFLP-GC towards Libya, and that this was done by and with the knowledge of a small number of people involved in the investigation on both the US and UK sides.
This is a far far more serious allegation than blackmailing and bribing witnesses to commit perjury. It also pushes the allegations that the course of the enquiry was perverted back from 1991 to 1989. It's whole new kettle of fish.
Remember, the D&G police started trying to get Tony Gauci to say Megrahi was the purchaser in February 1991. We don't quite know where they got Megrahi's name from at that point, but presumably from following up passengers catching other flights from Luqa at the critical time. The CIA didn't go postal on Giaka to force him to invent his fairy-stories until July 1991.
The allegations I'm putting forward now relate to 1989, only months after the disaster, and appear to be completely separate from any attempt to incriminate Megrahi personally, as this all occurred 18 months to two years before he seems to have entered the frame at all.
Rolfe.
I'm guessing we have to take silence for assent on that one, because the baying mob who were all over threads suggesting he didn't do it this time last year have gone quiet as little mice. (It would be nice if even one or two of these people were to come by and say, OK, I see what you mean, maybe I was a little hasty last year, but that's not human nature I suppose.)
I'm trying to move on to part two, where the ducks are still swimming around somewhat randomly. The suspicions that evidence was planted to turn the attention of the investigation away from the PFLP-GC towards Libya, and that this was done by and with the knowledge of a small number of people involved in the investigation on both the US and UK sides.
This is a far far more serious allegation than blackmailing and bribing witnesses to commit perjury. It also pushes the allegations that the course of the enquiry was perverted back from 1991 to 1989. It's whole new kettle of fish.
Remember, the D&G police started trying to get Tony Gauci to say Megrahi was the purchaser in February 1991. We don't quite know where they got Megrahi's name from at that point, but presumably from following up passengers catching other flights from Luqa at the critical time. The CIA didn't go postal on Giaka to force him to invent his fairy-stories until July 1991.
The allegations I'm putting forward now relate to 1989, only months after the disaster, and appear to be completely separate from any attempt to incriminate Megrahi personally, as this all occurred 18 months to two years before he seems to have entered the frame at all.
Rolfe.
Rolfe
Adult human female
Good question. However, I really don't think "but if this is right, some journalist would have picked it up, so it can't be right" is an adequate refutation to anything.
It has been said quite often of course. Paul Foot's seminal analysis of the trial from 2001 is probably the best - it appeared in Private Eye though, and it's always easy to dismiss Private Eye. I could probably link you to a dozen or more fairly mainstream articles questioning the judgement. The editorial today in the Scotsman questions whether the right person was convicted.
That's the lead editorial in today's paper. We get coverage like that quite often. It just seems as if nobody quite has the guts to come right out and hit the public between the eyes with both barrels on it. It needs someone of the calibre of a Brian Deer to do to the Lockerbie evidence what Deer did to the Wakefield fraud, and nobody has grasped the nettle that firmly.
Rolfe.
Hallo Alfie
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I wasn't actually suggesting, nor did I say "it can't be right" - so I have no idea why you would ascribe that to me. However I can agree that it might have seemed that way.
So putting this to one side. Is there a reason, in your opinion that papers/journalists are running with it? Couple that with the fact that this thread hasn't gained a great deal of momentum, then the casual JREF observer (such as myself) could easily come to the conclusion that this has no legs.
Just asking, no offense.
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Caustic Logic
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It absolutely seems that way, and that's why Rolfedecided that.No mystery, mate, when you say:
The media hasn't run with it, so there must/might not be anything much to it. Take it up with the mass media, I don't know what their problem is. The ducks line up pretty darn good.
Your previous post was similarly 'mis-understandable.' It's all right that you're not convinced by our Internet talk. It's your right. But do note, we're examining actual evidence in great detail, and your counter is that there was no Woodward and Bernstein moment.
ETA: And "no legs?" In case you missed out previous fertile threads stretching back almost a year, I posted links to most earlier in the thread. Legs! It's a millipede nest of 'em! Kevin Lowe is much closer to the mark as to why there's not a lot of comments besides Rolfe. We already agree and don't have much more to add ATM.
Here's a link that might put it in context for you:
http://lockerbiedivide.blogspot.com/2010/06/my-home-base.html
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Rolfe
Adult human female
Because that was a possible inference from what you said, even if you yourself didn't mean to imply it.
9/11 twooferism has "no legs", but that doesn't stop threads growing like Topsy whenever someone else comes along and declares that the towers fell into their own footprints at free-fall speeds, or whatever. Just sayin'.
I touched on my main theory earlier. There are two parts to this. I began with the plain vanilla part, in which Megrahi was the victim of a perfectly standard frame-up job by the police and other investigators, starting in 1991. If you present that on its own, as I did in the OP, it's pretty straightforward and easy to follow and difficult to refute.
The trouble is that nobody approaches it that way. That's the boring way.
The exciting way is to drag in the other part of the story, which is the suspected fabrication of evidence against Libya (not Megrahi himself) in 1989 - two years earlier. This is all sexy because you can weave a big mystery over the provenance of the timer fragment and turn it all into a big conspiracy theory linked to the Gulf War.
Journalists who decide to write on the subject are usually sucked into taking this approach. The problem is, it's far less clear cut, and it reeks of conspiracy theorising. As a result, it's far easier to file it away as another intriguing CT, rather than realise the essence of it is that someone was quite simply framed, entirely separately from the big mystery part of the story.
There are a mindboggling number of documentaries about the Lockerbie case - and this isn't twoofers posting YouTube clips, this is professional film-makers doing documentaries that get shown on TV. Most of them are available online, and I've just about fried my brain watching them. Every single one of them majors on allegations of fabrication of evidence, particularly that timer fragment, and other nefarious conduct.
There isn't a single presentation I've seen which ignores that aspect, and presents the simple case that Megrahi was framed by quite unspectacular means. And yet that's a case that's childishly easy to make once you look at that aspect in isolation.
Rolfe.
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Hallo Alfie
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You guys are taking this a bit personally imo.
I was asking a genuine question and then I am deliberately misquoted - frankly I care not.
At any rate, I'll ask it again why do you think the media haven't run with it?
And "I don't know" seems like a pretty weak answer too given you are "examining actual evidence in great detail".
eta, sorry Rolf, I was writing (among other things) while you were posting, I wrote this prior to your above post.
I was asking a genuine question and then I am deliberately misquoted - frankly I care not.
At any rate, I'll ask it again why do you think the media haven't run with it?
And "I don't know" seems like a pretty weak answer too given you are "examining actual evidence in great detail".
eta, sorry Rolf, I was writing (among other things) while you were posting, I wrote this prior to your above post.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
You might find it instructive to look at the comments following today's Scotsman article on the issue. There are over 300 already.
I don't post on the Scotsman because the comments are a bear-pit, quite frankly. I don't know any of these people from Adam (sorry, Caustic Logic!). However, as far as I've read, the predominant attack force is vehemently asserting that Megrahi is quite self-evidently innocent. An example.
I have no idea who Cynicus Unbound is, he's certainly not me. Have a read at some of the rest of it.
Rolfe.
I don't post on the Scotsman because the comments are a bear-pit, quite frankly. I don't know any of these people from Adam (sorry, Caustic Logic!). However, as far as I've read, the predominant attack force is vehemently asserting that Megrahi is quite self-evidently innocent. An example.
Cynicus Unbound said:
I have no idea who Cynicus Unbound is, he's certainly not me. Have a read at some of the rest of it.
Rolfe.
Caustic Logic
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I've always wondered, that person's comments are simply awesome, And Fifi LaBonBon annoys like few other trolls can. From what "ve read of Scotsman comments.
A.A. Alfie - no, I wasn't taking it personal, just calling it like I see it, right or wrong. I gather you're not convinced / disagree, but not coming right out and saying it. Maybe not, and if so it's no problem.
And hey, if "I don't know"is not a good answer to why the media hasn't blown this up, do you really think "why hasn't the media run with this" is a good argument that something isn't true? (argument, suggestion, whatever way you meant it).
Caustic Logic
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ETA to the above - my answers at this moment to a question I read as I'm nearing bedtime is not like "THE answer that CTists give" or anything like that.
Here, amateur US news media. Somehow that's unaffected.The facts herein are un-challenged. Can you tell me why the wider media IS avoiding a story this alarming and true? http://causticlogic.newsvine.com/_n...of-witnesses-paid-millions-for-misinformation
Here, amateur US news media. Somehow that's unaffected.The facts herein are un-challenged. Can you tell me why the wider media IS avoiding a story this alarming and true? http://causticlogic.newsvine.com/_n...of-witnesses-paid-millions-for-misinformation
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Rolfe
Adult human female
I recognise quite a few of the names because I used to post a lot on the Herald articles before they got fed up with the trolling, sock-puppetry and impersonation that was going on sent every comment there was to the great bit-bucket in the sky, and it was a lot of the same people. Fifi and Grahamski are unionist trolls. The game is for a few Labour researchers and hot-heads to come in and rile up the nationalist posters, then attack the latter group in the main press as "cybernats". I gave up playing that one some time ago.
I've dipped into the Scotsman pages from time to time over the past weeks, and my impression is that the view Megrahi is innocent is becoming more and more unchallenged.
ETA: You really have to get far enough down to where "Haggis Slayers of Fife Unite" starts his all-caps raving. This is honestly the quality of the "Megrahi did it" mob these days. And then by about his third post he reveals himself as a unionist troll.
Rolfe.
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Rolfe
Adult human female
I just noticed this part of Kevin's post. Er, not so. There is a great deal more to it than that. The framing of Megrahi in the simple sense, as I described, is only the tip of the iceberg. I wanted to see if we could agree to take that as read, more or less, before going on to discuss whether there was any substance in the more serious conspiracy theories.
Rolfe.
Rolfe
Adult human female
CL, where did you get that ridiculous picture? Have you any idea what the landscape round Lockerbie looks like? It's the Southern Uplands of Scotland, dammit, not the bloody Alps! If you want to know what it really looks like, put the word "Tundergarth" into Google Maps, and go for the village or the farm to the east of the town, not the street of that name in the town of Lockerbie itself. The tops of the hills, which are rough grass grazed by sheep and cattle, are gentle and rounded, and less than 600 feet above sea level.
I spotted something else as a link from a comment on your blog.
http://www.defraudingamerica.com/lockerbie_index.html
This seems to be the web site of one Rodney Stich, although he refers to himself in the third person. He starts off saying some semi-reasonable things about Lockerbie, but very quickly moves into allegations of massive cover-ups and corruption, none of which can be proved. Within a few more paragraphs the whole thing is tied into all sorts of other incidents, including some sort of 9/11 LIHOP, and the guy is quite frankly raving. He makes Lester Coleman look like the epitome of calm, reasoned sanity.
When investigating journalists find this sort of batcrap lunacy, it's not surprising if they decide to give the whole thing a smart body-swerve.
I'd like to look at the possibility that a couple of pieces of evidence were fabricated, and what the motivation for that might have been if they were, but it's ravings like this that put everybody off serious investigation of that area.
Rolfe.