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Continuation - Discussion of the Amanda Knox case

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Fulcanelli's point doesn't stand up to the evidence. The cottage in question was in fact relatively isolated.

I do not think so. From what I have read and seen about the apartment, I am more inclined to agree with Fulcanelli's assessment than yours. A more isolated target (not near a busy street, set back much further from any road, not in the vicinty of any streetlights or cameras) makes for a more attractive target.

Burglar bars were installed on the lower floor windows, indicating that the property owners recognized it was a possible target for burglars. In the time since the murder, the cottage has been broken into at least twice. Given this, it's silly to claim that the cottage was an unlikely target for a burglary.

Bars on lower floor windows make good sense for deterring casual crimes of opportunity - which is what the vast majority of burglaries are. However, according to the defense narrative, this was not a case of a lazy burglar finding an unlocked front door. Rather, they posit RG scaled a wall to climb in a second story window (after breaking it with a rock, hardly an act of subtlety designed to make oneself inconspicuous). I'd argue that Filomena's window is an unlikely target for most burglars, and especially so for Rudy Guede.

I am not asserting that, in and of itself, the unlikelihood of Rudy targeting the house necessarily implies that the burglary was staged. However, I do see it as one factor, among several others, that indicate that that is likely the case.
 
Most of the prosecution "evidence" doesn't count as evidence, because it's irrelevant or questionable.

Is this fact or opinion?

In fact, I think any rational person has to conclude based on rock solid evidence that the prosecution team did bend the rules to try to get them: the obvious examples being the constant leaking of false or biased information, the physical abuse used to elicit Amanda's false statement, lying to Amanda that she had tested positive for HIV to get her to list her sexual contacts, the misrepresentation of the footprint data and so on. Whether or not you think they were guilty, I don't think there's any question that the prosecution were bending or outright breaking the rules to brew up public support and achieve a conviction.

The evidence that Amanda's false statement was the result of abuse was? Was she able to identify the person or persons who abused her? Her defense attornies presented how many witnesses that testified that they also had been abused by the Perugia police? Her defense attornies entered how many reports of abuse by the Perugia police into evidence?

It's called the presumption of innocence and the need to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt

Which isn't the same as proving guilt beyond speculative doubts.

Knox was a victim of the well-known and documented tendency for psychologically vulnerable people to break down under intense interrogation and tell their interrogator whatever they think they want to know.

Proof?

Her statement is perfectly consistent with this: it's vague, it expresses confusion about whether the events she is recounting actually happened or not,

It seems perfectly consistent with someone who is lying.

and she recanted it as soon as she had some downtime to get her head straight.

Which took several days???

Raffaele did not say that he had cut Meredith with his knife - that's a PMF talking point with no basis in reality. He made a grammatically ambiguous statement that said he touched "her" with the knife, where "her" could linguistically have been Meredith but in context was obviously Amanda, and he made this statement after having been told by police that they found Meredith's DNA on his knife. He was trying to construct any possible scenario where that DNA could have been there, and the only one he could come up with was that Meredith's DNA had been on Amanda's hand when he touched Amanda with the kitchen knife accidentally.

Exactly the point that Stellafone was making about diverting topics tominutia. Whether Raffaele said that he cut Meredith or merely touched her is irrelevant. The fact is that he did not contest that some of Meredith's DNA was on the blade of the knife.

No it's not very plausible, but then again there is no plausible story for how that DNA got there at all other than contamination by the police.

Or that it was used in the murder.

Contamination or conspiracy. Given that we know the clasp was mishandled, conspiracy isn't needed.

We do? And how would have Raffaele's DNA gotten into Meredith's bedroom?
 
Isolated? The cottage was sitting at the bottom of a virtual ampitheatre surrounded on one side by dozens of apartments directly overlooking it and a main road running right outside it.

Why would he suppose rent money would be just lying around the apartment, especially on a holiday when the banks were shut and the rent wasn't due until days later anyway? Why would Rudy be aware the boys were out of town for the holiday, did they testify in the trial that they told him so? No? Then he didn't know. And one thing he certainly didn't know was if the girls were out or not and if/when any of them may return.

Again, what was wrong with the rest of the houses and apartments in Perugia, many of which would have been empty due to the holiday?


To keep saying that Rudy had been caught breaking and entering twice is an outright falsehood. He had entered only ONE place, the nursery in Milan because he'd been told it was a doss house and he needed somewhere to sleep. He didn't enter it to burgle it. He has no record for entering anywhere else.

As for his not having a job he had only been out of work for a month. The state in Italy pays benefits and the rent of the unemployed and he also had a very wealthy foster family. He didn't need to steal money to pay his rent or to live.

Rudy was found in possession of a laptop and cell phone stolen from an office in Perugia. Entry in that burglary was made by breaking a second floor window. Rudy claimed to have purchased them in the Milan train station, but somehow knew exactly where they were stolen from.

He was also caught entering a neighbors house at night via an open window. Both of these incidents happened a few weeks before the murder.

The facts indicate that Rudy was no stranger to breaking and entering.

He had also been cut off financially by his foster family.
 
No, I think there's only one door from the main living area to the bathroom (don't think the laundry area has a door, it's just a doorway open to the main kitchen, if you look at the plans of the house on PMF. Assuming of course that they're right). So Rudy could indeed have seen through to the bathroom while standing at the fridge; on the other hand there were two doors between him and the other bathroom and no lights on in that part of the house, so I doubt he could just have looked across and noticed it.

This seems like a very nitpicking discussion, anyway. Rudy says he was in the kitchen near the fridge, very close to the large bathroom, and it's entirely possible he chose to use that bathroom because it was closest. I think you're wrong that it would've been 'natural' for him to use the other bathroom, since it was further away than the one he actually did use. But really it doesn't matter: either would've been possible and he chose to use the large one, which though it indicates he was in that area of the house (maybe going in there after being in the kitchen) obviously doesn't prove it or rule it out.

(I am curious, though, as to your theory as to why he tackled the maze of doors to use that bathroom, if it was such a difficult one to find even while standing next to the fridge. Especially since Amanda would've presumably directed him to her bathroom. Was he doing some laundry?)

ETA: This plan shows a doorway but no door. Don't know whether they're just guessing, that there was no door, that it was kept open or what.

Why are you supposing that part of his story is true, when you don't believe the rest of it? You just like that bit because it puts him by the fridge? The whole context of that as told by Rudy is that it was done in the company of Meredith. Yet, we know that's not true. Neither does any evidence support his going in the fridge. None of Rudy's prints are on the fridge. Raffaele's are, but Rudy's aren't.

Therefore, using the 'fridge' story in your scenario is pure conjecture.
 
and also;





You find the idea that “Rudy could have interrupted the burglary to use the bathroom ….. hard to believe - incredible”?

Then you’re probably about to fall off your chair.

Burglars are frequently known to “take a dump” in homes they’ve broken in to.

Not only that, they’re sometimes known to do so LITERALLY in the middle of the crime, which is to say, on the floor, or even on furniture such as tables (!!).

Why? I don’t really want to go there, but suffice to say we’re considering individuals who often barely qualify as human.

(I felt rather uncomfortable typing that, but it appears that some need to learn a little patterns-of-criminal-behaviour 101 before they hold forth on what is, or is not “credible”.)

There is, I believe, a difference between leaving feces in the middle of someone's floor as a statement and actually using the toilet, only forgetting to flush.

Regardless, the stool sample left by Rudy is not the main evidence against the burglary theory. In fact, when one looks at the preponderance of evidence, there is no valid scenario that involves only Rudy.
 
Fulcanelli's point doesn't stand up to the evidence. The cottage in question was in fact relatively isolated. The cottage sits below street level with no other buildings on the same side of the street. Burglar bars were installed on the lower floor windows, indicating that the property owners recognized it was a possible target for burglars. In the time since the murder, the cottage has been broken into at least twice. Given this, it's silly to claim that the cottage was an unlikely target for a burglary.

Yes. People in Perugia are obliged to take precautions against burglary, and they do. A burglar is not presented with lots of easy targets.

I was at the place in the middle of the day on a weekday, and the traffic along that street consisted of one car every minute or two.

If Rudy was looking for a place to rob, he would have seen the cottage as a relatively easy, low-risk target, especially on a weekend when everyone was away.
 
And, in a beautifully-timed irony, a poster on another forum has just introduced a link to an academic paper, which she believes to indicate that it's possible for a presumptive blood test on a sample to show negative, but for a DNA profile to be recoverable nonetheless:

http://www.hartnell.edu/faculty/jhughey/Files/bloodpatternsandDNArecovery.pdf

Unfortunately, what this poster seems to have overlooked is that the entire rationale of this paper is that specifically fire/heat can cause anomalies to the widely-understood and widely-applied principle of "negative for blood = no DNA". The specific conclusion of the paper is that DNA examiners should not follow this accepted thinking when analysing fire-exposed samples..

So, in fact, this paper actually adds weight to the idea that (outside of a fire-damaged scene), investigators should conduct a presumptive test for blood first. And that only if this presumptive blood test shows positive should they proceed with a full DNA test. The paper argues that an exception to this rule should be applied in the case of fire/heat at the crime scene, but that this is explicitly an exception to the rule.

Just want to address the part highlighted, I found this article [link], titled "Obtaining Typable DNA From Bloodstains That Serologically Test Negative", the abstract states that negative presumptive tests for blood should not be an indicator that further DNA analysis should be abandoned, further searching I found this letter to the author of the article from a police forensic investigator when trying to find more on the study, and as she states

...the tests performed out in the field and even in the confines of the crime lab are properly defined as presumptive tests. In other words, they are NOT confirmatory and should not be taken on face value as a true or false, black or white answer or result.
.
 
I believe that some criminal psychologists interpret this defecation phenomenon as a complex combination of "territory marking" and a psycho-physiological response to heightened anxiety/fear. There are very, very few nonchalant burglars. Most of them (backed up by studies and post-arrest interviews) are something between very nervous and terrified while they are actually committing the crime.

The facts indicate that Rudy was no stranger to breaking and entering.

So the experienced burglar is having a panic-induced colon blowout?
 
There is, I believe, a difference between leaving feces in the middle of someone's floor as a statement and actually using the toilet, only forgetting to flush.

Exactly. I would also add that there is a difference of significance between using the toilet when you're near certain that the homeowners won't return within the time you're there, and when you're not sure if they could come in and surprise you on the hopper*.

*This is why you have a lookout. I have heard no compelling argument that Rudy had an accomplice(s), other than AK & RS, of course.

Regardless, the stool sample left by Rudy is not the main evidence against the burglary theory. In fact, when one looks at the preponderance of evidence, there is no valid scenario that involves only Rudy.

It may not be the main evidence against it, but I think it certainly significantly damages the genuine burglary scenario.
 
There is, I believe, a difference between leaving feces in the middle of someone's floor as a statement and actually using the toilet, only forgetting to flush.

Regardless, the stool sample left by Rudy is not the main evidence against the burglary theory. In fact, when one looks at the preponderance of evidence, there is no valid scenario that involves only Rudy.

Didn`t RG leave feces without flushing on a previous occasion, when he was hanging around at the apartment of "the boys below"!?
So that seems to be just another indication, that RG left them without any connection to "the burglary".
 
Just want to address the part highlighted, I found this article [link], titled "Obtaining Typable DNA From Bloodstains That Serologically Test Negative", the abstract states that negative presumptive tests for blood should not be an indicator that further DNA analysis should be abandoned, further searching I found this letter to the author of the article from a police forensic investigator when trying to find more on the study, and as she states

.

This study is related purely to the ABAcard Hematrace serological test for blood - which is not a presumptive test for blood, but rather a confirmatory test for the presence of human blood.

Hematrace is an immunochromatographic test, which works when human haemoglobin reacts with an antihuman haemoglobin antibody, to form a new antigen-antibody complex. In other words, it works at a biological level, rather than at a simple chemical level.

As such, Hematrace tests are less sensitive than chemiluminescence presumptive tests. The report you've linked to merely (and very specifically) demonstrates that a negative confirmatory test for human blood (Hematrace) doesn't necessarily mean that a DNA test will be similarly negative. It has nothing to do with TMB or other presumptive tests for blood.
 
Just want to address the part highlighted, I found this article [link], titled "Obtaining Typable DNA From Bloodstains That Serologically Test Negative", the abstract states that negative presumptive tests for blood should not be an indicator that further DNA analysis should be abandoned, further searching I found this letter to the author of the article from a police forensic investigator when trying to find more on the study, and as she states

.

PS: In addition, read the author's answer to the letter you quoted. There are true presumptive tests (TMB, PhTh, luminol, etc), and then there are confirmatory tests which can also be used as presumptive tests if required ("confirmatory" is a higher standard of identification than "presumptive").

The author of the letter is mainly complaining about the exclusive use of the word "confirmatory" in the original paper. In addition, the author of the letter inexplicably then recounts an episode which has zero relevance to the paper - she recounts how a presumptive test for semen returned a false negative in an arson case. A presumptive test for semen has nothing whatsoever to do with a Hematrace test for blood (regardless of whether Hematrace is being used as a confirmatory or presumptive test). And, in addition, we've already established that fires require exceptional protocols.
 
So the experienced burglar is having a panic-induced colon blowout?

Why might Guede's previous (alleged) experience of burglary greatly diminish any heightened sense of fear/anxiety during this break-and-enter? Do antelope which are being chased by lions experience any less fear on account of the herd having been chased by lions previously?
 
This study is related purely to the ABAcard Hematrace serological test for blood - which is not a presumptive test for blood, but rather a confirmatory test for the presence of human blood.

Hematrace is an immunochromatographic test, which works when human haemoglobin reacts with an antihuman haemoglobin antibody, to form a new antigen-antibody complex. In other words, it works at a biological level, rather than at a simple chemical level.

As such, Hematrace tests are less sensitive than chemiluminescence presumptive tests. The report you've linked to merely (and very specifically) demonstrates that a negative confirmatory test for human blood (Hematrace) doesn't necessarily mean that a DNA test will be similarly negative. It has nothing to do with TMB or other presumptive tests for blood.

Did you actually read the second link, or even the quote from the investigator (who I would guess has a bit more experience in crime forensics than yourself) as it completely completely contradicts your reasoning?

Did you read the reply from Tracey Dawson Cruz, Ph.D, one of the authors of the paper, on the same link, and I'll quote from last paragraph

Therefore, it is important to present this type of scientific evidence to the community to assure that forensic DNA analysts and crime scene investigators alike are aware of the need to incorporate all information from the crime before discontinuing their testing based exclusively on serological data.

Do you know what presumptive or confirmatory even means?
 
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Did you actually read the second link, or even the quote from someone (who I would guess has a bit more experience in crime forensics than yourself) as it completely completely contradicts your reasoning?

Did you read the reply from Tracey Dawson Cruz, Ph.D, one of the authors of the paper, on the same link, and I'll quote from last paragraph



Do you know what presumptive or confirmatory even means?

Yes I did. And yes I do. Did you read my supplementary post, which dealt with the letter you referred to?
 
Yes I did. And yes I do. Did you read my supplementary post, which dealt with the letter you referred to?

I only saw it after I posted but I still do not think you understand the subject of the letter the two are discussing.

PS: In addition, read the author's answer to the letter you quoted. There are true presumptive tests (TMB, PhTh, luminol, etc), and then there are confirmatory tests which can also be used as presumptive tests if required ("confirmatory" is a higher standard of identification than "presumptive").

The author of the letter is mainly complaining about the exclusive use of the word "confirmatory" in the original paper. In addition, the author of the letter inexplicably then recounts an episode which has zero relevance to the paper - she recounts how a presumptive test for semen returned a false negative in an arson case. A presumptive test for semen has nothing whatsoever to do with a Hematrace test for blood (regardless of whether Hematrace is being used as a confirmatory or presumptive test). And, in addition, we've already established that fires require exceptional protocols.

Inspector Pamela Hofsass, BA is using this case as an example, which resulted in a negative presumptive test, but she ignored this result and did the DNA test anyway, if she was to follow your advice she would not do the DNA test and vital evidence would be missed.

Hofsass goes on to say in the last paragraph of her letter:

A negative presumptive result DOES NOT mean no further testing...

...thoughtful review of all aspects of a crime scene (such as attempts to "wash away" the evidence with household detergents) should be considered before the decision is made to leave potential biological evidence behind.


Tracey Dawson Cruz, Ph.D even goes onto say, in earlier in the same paragraph I quoted from in the previous post:

This type of case highlights the point of our study very nicely- that case history and circumstances should be carefully considered before deciding to discontinue testing (including DNA analysis) based on either presumptive or confirmatory serological test results.

Neither women is being specific to an arson scene, but are talking about all crime scenes in general, and that both quotes are the opposite of your assertion:

...And that only if this presumptive blood test shows positive should they proceed with a full DNA test.
 
Yes, I am this far behind, slowly catching up on reading the thread.

I don't think I can conclusively demonstrate that officials knew that Amanda's HIV tests were negative when they conveyed the information to her

I think it would be more honest then to not make a positive claim on this then, call it "your theory" or something.

The UNODC, UNAIDS and WHO Policy Brief on HIV testing and counselling in prisons and other closed settings

WHO policies are not legally binding of course.

We might guess that all prison inmates are automatically tested for HIV, but we would not necessarily be correct. It depends on the laws of the country in which one is incarcerated.

<snip> ...

Did the prison test her for HIV in case she was sick and they wanted to treat her? If they did, they also should have tested her for heart disease, lung disease and cancer, all of which kill more people in developed countries than does AIDS. That would have made more sense than testing her for HIV.

In the US, many institutions in which people will be confined in close quarters test for Tuberculosis, despite its relative rarity, not primarily because "in case [they] are sick and they want to treat [them]," but because unlike cancer, it is infectious. The CDC apparently made recommendations (I can't find the original document) that HIV testing be made a regular part of health testing in US prisons for that reason.

Regardless, it's hardly a compelling argument when you neither cite relevant Italian law or standard practice at the Perguia prison systems.

As to the question of lying, well, the bottom line is that false positives for HIV are extremely rare, and second false positives are, naturally, even rarer. Based on the statistical improbabilty that Amanda could have tested falsely positive twice or even once for HIV, I think it is safe to surmise prison officials gave her false information for one purpose or another.

Wikipedia cites that screening tests run false positive rates of 15 in 1000, which is rare, but hardly "extremely" so.

I am unaware of claims that Knox was told she was positive after the second test (a false positive after the second test would I agree constitute 'extremely rare', btw).

As to the question of whether or not giving Amanda false positive HIV test results was psychological torture, we have more anecdotal evidence, provided in Barbie Nadeau's book, Angel Face:

Nadeau?

I thought she was considered an unreliable source by Knox supporters (Bruce, want to chime in here?)

If true

<snip>

It constituted a serious breach of her human rights, and Perugian officials should be censured for it.

I wholeheartedly agree with your principles here, but your arguments here fall far short of proof of your original statements.

We know prison officials lied to Amanda when they told her - twice - that she had tested positively for HIV. We know this was a form of psychological torture.
 
Thank you for the welcome. However, I should note that I do not post at the PMF forums, and I'm not sure why you would assume that to be the case.

This is not the first time there has been cross-forum drift between the JREF forums and other forums which cater to believers in non-mainstream theories, and if you are being less than completely honest about your familiarity with such other forums you would be far from the first to do so.

You wouldn't even be the first cross-forum poster to make claims about relevant personal expertise which turned out to be less than factual, if indeed your claims to personal expertise are not founded in fact.

So call it a view informed by my previous experiences. ;)

Likewise, there is no reason to believe that any one instance is entirely non-representative of the phenomenon as a whole. At any rate, your line of argument is largely moot, because I have had a multitude of experiences with crime and the law that inform my judgment of AK's & RS's guilt. It is not simply one data point.

I think you are failing to grasp the point: No one person's opinion or experiences should ever be taken as authoritative, when properly collected scientific data is available as an alternative authority. I don't care if you tell us you've been in and out of the prison system for eighty years in fifty different countries, as well as having been a police officer, lawyer, judge and hit man. It doesn't matter.

We have scientific studies regarding the issue, which any rational person will take as trumping the opinions of an anonymous internet source with unverifiable claims to personal expertise.

Even allowing for a higher probablility of AK giving a false statement than a random sample of the population, all you have is that - a higher probability. You don't know that it happened in this case. I believe that it probably didn't.

So you agree then that there is reasonable doubt as to whether or not Amanda's statement accusing Lumumba and putting herself at the scene was a false statement elicited by sleep deprivation, physical abuse and sustained interrogation? That's fine then, we can add it to the pile of irrelevant, inconclusive "evidence" and move on.

The evidence that Amanda's false statement was the result of abuse was? Was she able to identify the person or persons who abused her? Her defense attornies presented how many witnesses that testified that they also had been abused by the Perugia police? Her defense attornies entered how many reports of abuse by the Perugia police into evidence?

Rhetorical questions are a convenient way of avoiding actually making any factual claims or declarative statements. If you have a point to make, I suggest you rewrite it in the form of factual claims supporting a specific conclusion, instead of "Just Asking Questions" (or JAQing off as it's sometimes referred to around here).

I've already stated the facts that led me to my conclusion, and what my conclusion is. Your turn.

Exactly the point that Stellafone was making about diverting topics tominutia. Whether Raffaele said that he cut Meredith or merely touched her is irrelevant. The fact is that he did not contest that some of Meredith's DNA was on the blade of the knife.

I think you need to reread the relevant posts again, because you are clearly failing to understand the point which is being contested. The PMF talking point, which is malignant nonsense, is that Raffaele wrote that he touched Meredith with the blade of the knife. He did not do so: He wrote that he touched Amanda with the blade of the knife, presumably speculating that Amanda somehow had DNA from Meredith on her hand at that time.

The PMF spin is that he was claiming that Meredith was in his house when he was cooking dinner one night. The fact that neither he nor anyone else has ever claimed that Meredith was ever at his house, before or since, doesn't seem to bother them, nor does the fact that this talking point makes zero sense. (The problem with partisan echo chambers like PMF is that confirmation bias runs amok and claims like this gets picked up and repeated despite the fact that they are patent nonsense).

Since this was written after he had been told by the police that Meredith's DNA was on his kitchen knife and he was trying to make sense of this claim, claiming that "the fact is that he did not contest that some of Meredith's DNA was on the blade of the knife" is also malignant nonsense. It is not indicative of criminality to take the police at their word - at worst it is indicative of naivety when it came to how the Perugia police and Mignini were tackling the case.

We do? And how would have Raffaele's DNA gotten into Meredith's bedroom?

He was a frequent visitor to the house and would have shed skin cells all over it as human beings do, and the bra clasp had six weeks to sit around gathering dust in a corner. That's ignoring the demonstrated flaws in police handling of the bra clasp which could have contaminated it, and ignoring the fact that we know that the bra clasp was contaminated with foreign DNA because it had DNA from multiple unknown people on it. So unless you are espousing a theory where AK, RS, RG and two or three extra people all ganged up on Meredith, with most of them taking turns handling the bra clasp for some damned strange reason, you have to concede that irrelevant, foreign DNA got all over the bra clasp.

That's also ignoring the possibility of outright falsification.

We've cited papers showing that the dust from well-travelled corridors can contain testable levels of DNA, albeit relatively degraded. It's consistent with what we know of the topic that an object gathering dust in a house where someone is a frequent visitor could pick up trace amounts of DNA from that visitor. As such, it looks to me like one more piece of "evidence" which is inconclusive and can't get us to proof beyond reasonable doubt.
 
I wasn't interested in the bloody footprint on the bathmat in my post, just the non-existent shoeprints leading from the bathroom to the bedroom that should have been there if your scenario was what likely happened. Without these shoeprints the story doesn't ring true to me, it simply couldn't have happened that way.

What is your theory as to how it got there?
 
So do you then agree then that we can add this piece of "evidence" to the pile of inconclusive "evidence", and that there is reasonable doubt with regard to the prosecution narrative on this point as well?


Sure. I don't understand why it is difficult for you to grasp that I am not attempting to fabricate a narrative for the courtroom.

Are you ready to agree that if we are going to discuss only the propriety (or "safety", as LJ would say) of the verdict then we must only offer evidence and argument as it was presented in the courtroom ... to the jury (or judges)? This applies to both guilt or innocence.

The instant you bring up anything else then the topic becomes one of the likelihood of actual guilt or innocence, which is not the same thing.

You still insist on trying to have it both ways. Suggestions of possible guilt judged by some caricature of courtroom standards, but suggestions of innocence open to any hypotheses of what might be "possible".
 
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