• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

OOS Collapse Propagation Model

Status
Not open for further replies.
a point which Seymour Butz just noticed with literally a couple of minutes of *leg work*.



You're a moron.

It took all of 2 minutes to prove that you're either woefully wrong, or lying.

You're comparing a real world period of freefall to a model that didn't happen.

IOW, you're just as dumb as Tony-the-Twoofer, cuz he ALSO is comparing a real world event to a model that didn't happen.
 
You're comparing a real world period of freefall to a model that didn't happen.
Can't argue with that. NISTs models bear no resemblance to reality. In the slightest.

And, yet again, you're talking about WTC 7. Er, penny drop yet that this thread is not about WTC 7 yet son ? lol.

Sooooo.....

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?
 
Femr writes:

"1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure."

That is the official version of the sequence of failure events for WTC1 and 2. In that order.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In their own words:

1-6D, p 312:

"Table 5–1. Summary of main events that led to the collapse of WTC 1.
Event Number........ Event
1 .......................Aircraft impact
2 .......................Unloading of core
3 .......................Sagging of floors and floor/wall disconnections
4........................Bowing of the south wall
5 .......................Buckling of south wall and collapse initiation"




1-6D, pg 314:

"Bowing of South Wall

The exterior columns on the south wall bowed inward as they were subjected to high temperatures, pull-in forces from the floors beginning at 80 min, and additional gravity loads redistributed from the core. Figure 5–6 shows the observed and the estimated inward bowing of the south wall at 97 min after impact (10:23 a.m.). Since no bowing was observed on the south wall at 69 min (9:55 a.m.), as shown in Table 5–2, it is estimated that the south wall began to bow inward at around 80 min when the floors on the south side began to substantially sag. The inward bowing of the south wall increased with time due to continuing floor sagging and increased temperatures on the south wall as shown in Figs. 4–42 and 5–7. At 97 min (10:23 a.m.), the maximum bowing observed was about 55 in. (see Fig. 5–6).


Buckling of South Wall and Collapse Initiation

With continuously increased bowing, as more columns buckled, the entire width of the south wall buckled inward. Instability started at the center of the south wall and rapidly progressed horizontally toward the sides. As a result of the buckling of the south wall, the south wall significantly unloaded (Fig. 5–3), redistributing its load to the softened core through the hat truss and to the south side of the east and west walls through the spandrels. The onset of this load redistribution can be found in the total column loads in the WTC 1 global model at 100 min in the bottom line of Table 5–3. At 100 min, the north, east, and west walls at Floor 98 carried about 7 percent, 35 percent, and 30 percent more gravity loads than the state after impact, and the south wall and the core carried about 7 percent and 20 percent less loads, respectively. The section of the building above the impact zone tilted to the south (observed at about 8°, Table 5–2) as column instability progressed rapidly from the south wall along the adjacent east and west walls (see Fig. 5–8), resulting in increased gravity load on the core columns. The release of potential energy due to downward movement of building mass above the buckled columns exceeded the strain energy that could be absorbed by the structure. Global collapse ensued."

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Basically, they are saying that the OOS south area floors sagged so badly it pulled in and destabilized the south wall. Then, apparently, the whole core gets pulled down as the top portion tilts 8 degrees or less than 1 degree, nobody seems to know which.

Well it's not 8 degrees :)

No-one seems to have addressed your other points either, and beachnut (bless'im) seems to think that the ROOSD study has failed to portray the post-initiation mechanism of destruction accurately. Odd, as I have yet to see anyone actually find any fault with the mechanism at all.

Would be much more productive if instead of whining, these folk applied their time to help make the study even *more* accurate.

I don't think folk *like* the inclusion of the clarification that ROOSD does not prove, nor disprove MIHOP (as it cannot, as it does not include initiation at all) but such inclusion is of course appropriate for the intended audiences.

Quite surprised that no-one has included any additional detail to clarify the requirements for the initial state, such that ROOSD can ensue.

You, MT, and I are both aware of one calculation of energy expenditure to achieve the separation of one OOS floor region from core and perimeter, but what is it with these folks that they really don't seem to want to refine the *numbers* ?

Bizarre. You'd have thought (bearing in mind no explosives are involved in the described mechanism) that they'd be champing at the bit to iron out any *doubts*.

Ho hum. Scratch JREF for any useful input ?
 
...
Go ahead...be specific though. I'm sure MT has no problem addressing legitimate errors.

15 pages of JREF *denial* and no progress yet...hmmm.
Go ahead publish your work in a real journal. Help Major Tom publish his work in a real journal.

> 8 years of delusions, you and Major Tom have made zero progress... hmmm


No evidence for your delusional cd deal must suck. What progress? Major Tom's paper failed and you and Major Tom want progress so you attack NIST. Super!





You and Major Tom act as if you were structural engineers; but you are paranoid conspiracy theorists who can’t do differential equations, structual engineer, or grasp a working knowledge of physics. Could you use Tony who graduated from XXXXXXXXXXX, to help you with the math you have not done. You both could use some sampling theory and basic physics lab experience. You guys act like you know something, role playing, but don’t have a clue on 911. I bet the expert engineer Heiwa, fresh off his successful debunking of Bazant, can help you and Major Tom.
Oops; my bad, Heiwa’s work was found to be baseless, delusional and without merit. Darn you guys can’t stand up to the real world. Why is that? Guess there will be no journal articles in real publications; better save up some money so you can publish your failed work as is in a vanity journal. Major Tom's work is just like Heiwa's work. Why can't you figure that out?
 
Last edited:
Major Tom's paper failed and you and Major Tom want progress so you attack NIST.
Priceless beachnut.

You say the study has *failed* in one breath, then...
Major Tom's paper proves a gravity collapse
...the next. Consistent.

Might also be useful if you could be clear about where exactly NIST are being *attacked*.

It was slightly unfair to conclude *zero* progress in this thread. There has been a few locals who have agreed that ROOSD is a good description of the post-initiation events...
Dave Rogers said:
I've had a quick look through the paper, and I don't see anything particularly contentious about the hypothesis that the collapse progressed, broadly speaking, in the way you describe. I don't see anything contentious, either, about the statement that this mechanism does not prove that the collapse was unassisted by demolition devices; indeed, I suspect that no feature of collapse propagation could conceivably prove any such thing, because even a controlled demolition using explosives exhibits a natural collapse progression. It's collapse initiation that's the key differentiator in this instance. In the light of that, I would argue that your final section is tautological, and therefore not worth including. With that removed, what you have is potentially an interesting piece of analysis, although it could use a lot of development.

ElMondoHummus said:
I'm sure lots of other folks have said this here before too. Heck, for quite a while now, it's been one of the points we here have been trying to hammer into conspiracy peddlers: That one of the reasons the buildings failed was because the floors were stripped from the columns and removed all lateral support from them.

sheeplesnshills said:
Outside my area of expertise but yes in general the floors collapsing down between the two tubes of columns seems to be what happened. I don't think that was ever in dispute

Newtons Bit said:
Yes, the floors failed in the collapse, not the columns. Congratulations, you wrote a paper describing what the vast majority here has been saying since before you joined this forum.

Seems you are being left to it beachnut eh.

Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?
 
You not getting why, is the Brilliant part, though.:rolleyes:

Oh, I know why. That's what happened. ROOSD is a *formalised* description of the actual post-initiation mechanism of destruction, with the inclusion of the basics of defining that behaviour parametrically, with some math.

The *pancake theory* was almost universally rejected as it's definition was unreasonable.

Bazant et al defined a limiting case, not one which matched observables, so ROOSD is imo intended to fill the void between the extreme and reality.


That's one reason why I unfortunately find it quite humerous that there are so many folk (no names beachnut) that don't or won't *get* that.


By all means feel free to improve the model...but remember it's scope...doesn't include initiation, doesn't include the core.
 
Oh, I know why. That's what happened. ROOSD is a *formalised* description of the actual post-initiation mechanism of destruction, with the inclusion of the basics of defining that behaviour parametrically, with some math.

The *pancake theory* was almost universally rejected as it's definition was unreasonable.

Bazant et al defined a limiting case, not one which matched observables, so ROOSD is imo intended to fill the void between the extreme and reality.


That's one reason why I unfortunately find it quite humerous that there are so many folk (no names beachnut) that don't or won't *get* that.


By all means feel free to improve the model...but remember it's scope...doesn't include initiation, doesn't include the core.
Bazant did a model; you don't understand the model so you attack it. The topic is Major Tom's failed paper. Go head and publish your work and help Major Tom publish his; show us all how it is.

The problem is your work and Major Tom's work is as bad as Jones, Heiwa, and other 911 truth delusion experts living in a fantasy world of conspiracy theories based on lies, hearsay, and failed opinions. You will not publish; if you do you will find your work is baseless, delusional, and without merit. This is why NIST ignores you.


Major Tom's paper proves a gravity collapse when you include the reality based evidence he ignores. Do you always ignore the qualifying statements and cherry pick the things you want so you can form delusions? If you continue to attack Bazant's work, you only expose your work as failed and your lack of engineering skills and experience.

Either your work stands on it's own merit or not (NOT). Do you attack NIST and Bazant to hide your failure? That is extra credit failure, as you try to fool laypeople with your faulty science.

Hurry and publish your work so you can get feedback from more engineers. How long have you been a degreed engineer? What about Major Tom? What are the super schools where you guys learned to present such a great defense of your opinions.
 

Oh. My. Many. Gods.

Bazant did a model; you don't understand the model so you attack it.
Wrong (#1). Not attacking Bazant et al. Stating the scope limitations of the model, tick. Stating the distinction between a limiting case model and one matched to observables, tick.

Major Tom's failed paper.
Wrong (#2). Not a paper as yet, a study. Not failed. Even you agree with the ROOSD mechanism. Hurrah ! :)

The problem is your work
Wrong (#3). Not my work. Have read it, tick. Have probably had some comments result in certain elements being included in it, tick.

Major Tom's work is as bad as Jones, Heiwa, and other 911 truth delusion experts
Wrong (#4). A primary intention is to stop the ridiculous claims, such as floor-by-floor explosives, being stated by such folk. It's even explicitly made clear within the text. Disagreeing with ROOSD (or whatever you choose to call it) puts you in a really awkward position, as you imply you don't agree with the mechanism. Wow.

based on lies, hearsay
Wrong (#5). Gravity driven collapse of the flooring is lies and hearsay ? Wow.

You will not publish
Right ! (#1). Not my work.

your work is baseless, delusional, and without merit
Oh. Wrong (#6). Not my work. Baseless ? No. Delusional ? No. Without merit ? No. Should really bump the wrong count up, but I'm trying to be kind.

This is why NIST ignores you.
Wrong (#7). NIST terminated dialogue with me when I asked them why their model had 2/3rds of the core intact during the freefall period of the real event. They could have detailed reasons. They didn't. They chose to stop talking.

Major Tom's paper proves a gravity collapse
Wrong (#8). It outlines the only gravity driven mechanism that matches key observables, but I think some work is required for it to be classified as formal *proof*.

when you include the reality based evidence he ignores.
Wrong (#9). ROOSD does not ignore evidence. It specifically includes key observables.

Do you always ignore the qualifying statements and cherry pick the things you want so you can form delusions?
I hope you have a look in the mirror very shortly...or you could actually read the study you are trying to *debunk*.

Please beachnut, sort yourself out mate. It's ridiculous.
 
... Please beachnut, sort yourself out mate. It's ridiculous.
You and Major Tom have the CD delusion, not I. A serious engineer would put me on ignore on my first post if he had a serious point, or reality based conclusions on 911.


Publish the information you have; is reality stopping you? It has not stopped your delusions on CD. Got a date for publication yet? Do a letter like Heiwa; or is the the only delusion expert with the guts to send a letter? No you were shut down by NIST; lol

If Tom's paper is not failed please have him publish it. Another Heiwa delusional letter to a real journal is needed to remove the Autumn blues.

What floor by floor explosives? That is the clue to your new strategy for you and Major Tom is only a few key things need to be cut to have a gravity collapse. You and Major Tom want to say look!, see how easy it is to knock down the building. lol, which part of no explosives do you fail to grasp?

Seems like you guys have stumbled into the primary energy source of CD; Gravity! lol

After you catch up, you will drop the paranoid CD conspiracy theory and stop supporting terrorist apologists. What will you make up for the Pentagon?
 
A serious engineer would put me on ignore on my first post
However banal your posts may be to me, they do take up space, distract others from the thread subject, and the endless errors and personal attacks do, unfortunately, need to be responded to at times.

My preference would simply be for you not to post. If you have a purpose, I'm really not at all sure what it is. Sticks and stones and all that.

I would have thought that my prior response to you may have resulted in you taking some kind of stock, but apparently not.

Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?
 
Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

Okay, or not okay ?
Sooooo.....

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?

Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?

However banal your posts may be to me, they do take up space, distract others from the thread subject, and the endless errors and personal attacks do, unfortunately, need to be responded to at times.
Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?

You have a lot of nerve talking about posts that 'take up space' when you are spamming the same thing over and over again.
 
Last edited:
Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?


Yes.

My objection is that you are speaking of events that might well have had durations (possibly differing from one another), and your wording that establishes the sequence of those events is not clear with regard to the potential for those durations to overlap in time. When you say event A is "followed rapidly by" event B, do you mean that B begins a very short (or zero) span of time after A begins? Or that B begins a very short (or zero) span of time after A is complete? Or that B is complete after A is complete, which says nothing about which one began first? Or something else?

In normal discourse this would not be a concern, but this is not normal discourse because you have been willing, previously in this thread, to exploit exactly such ambiguities in NIST's statements about time sequences -- for example, interpreting a statement to the effect that an 8 degree rotation was occurring at time T (meaning, apparently, beginning at or before time T) was equivalent to a claim that 8 degrees of rotation had already occurred at time T.

You have also not defined the event "failure" clearly enough. By some definitions, failure most likely occurred (or began) at the moment the planes impacted the structure. (Had no further events ensued, the buildings would have probably been condemned anyway for structural failure, that is, distortions in the structural framework that made it no longer safe to occupy, had there been any opportunity to closely assess and measure its condition.) By some definitions, failure occurred when members became visibly distorted, indicating that they were no longer capable of bearing their designed loads and that significant load redistribution had occurred in the structure. By some definitions, failure occurred when the structure above (either immediately above, or above in the sense of being partially supported by, two distinctly different possibilities) the failed area began moving, or began descending (the latter being a subset of the former, again two different possibilities).

Please provide a clear definition of "failure" including whether you are treating it as the moment a certain global state or condition is reached (an event of zero duration), a physical process such as the buckling of a member or group of members (an event that has a duration), or the condition of multiple members each reaching an individual state (which also has a duration if not all the members in the group reach that state at exactly the same time). Whatever definition you choose, please include what states or conditions define the beginning and end of that event. Then, restate your hypothesis as a time line clearly indicating the relationship of those failures in time, including whether and how they overlapped.

Then I'll tell you if I agree with you or not.

Respectfully,
Myriad
 
However banal your posts may be to me, they do take up space, distract others from the thread subject, and the endless errors and personal attacks do, unfortunately, need to be responded to at times.

My preference would simply be for you not to post. If you have a purpose, I'm really not at all sure what it is. Sticks and stones and all that.

I would have thought that my prior response to you may have resulted in you taking some kind of stock, but apparently not.

Sooo...

Anyone feel like being clear about the NIST initiation sequence ?

Any objection to...

1) South face failure, followed rapidly by...
2) South to North core and East/West perimeter failure, followed rapidly by...
3) North face failure.

...?
You are off topic, you have no point, and your CD delusion is old paranoid conspiracy theory fantasy. You can't publish your conclusions, they are not based on reality.

The best part studying paranoid 911 conspiracy theorists like you, who make up massive moronic delusions, is listening to Leslie Robertson call your ideas nonsense. You don't have a clue about structural engineering and your think you have something to expose something you can't define or explain. Good work, 8 years of delusions punctuated with persistent failure.

Stop wasting your time with a skeptics forum where you lost the second your CD lies spewed forth. You are sure your CD delusion is real, you need professional help. I recommend a real structural engineer who has not gone nuts like Jones.
 
I have no objection if you want to simplify a complex scenario down to three sentences. Do you plan to get to a point soon?
Point ? Folk here have been repeatedly asking for the thread discussion to move onto initiation. Simply the first question to start that ball rolling. Would prefer folk to develop the ROOSD details, but hey.

Oh, do you personally have any issue with the sequence suggested ?

Myriad said:
My objection is that you are speaking of events that might well have had durations (possibly differing from one another), and your wording that establishes the sequence of those events is not clear with regard to the potential for those durations to overlap in time. When you say event A is "followed rapidly by" event B, do you mean that B begins a very short (or zero) span of time after A begins? Or that B begins a very short (or zero) span of time after A is complete? Or that B is complete after A is complete, which says nothing about which one began first? Or something else?
Simply a way to get the ball rolling as simply as possible.

Am okay with variable timescales, and obviously there is bound to be some overlap between the sequence events. Just trying to present the sequence...south perimeter fails...core fails...north perimeter fails. That is in essence the sequence presented by NIST, yes ?

You have also not defined the event "failure" clearly enough. By some definitions, failure most likely occurred (or began) at the moment the planes impacted the structure.
I'm referring clearly to initiation. The point in time, beginning at arbitary point t0 at which initiation begins. From the essentially static condition, to the rapid initiation of descent.

I'm aware of the assertion of CC creep over the period of IB.

My personal focus will be upon the sequence of events and the timings, so your views on such are very welcome.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom