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SNP support crumbling

Undesired Walrus

Penultimate Amazing
Undesired Walrus
Joined
Apr 10, 2007
Messages
11,691
Interesting:

The Herald has a new TNS BMRB poll of Scottish voting intentions, I think it’s the first since the general election (the Herald certainly claim it is, and I haven’t seen any others).

Holyrood constituency vote stands at CON 13%(nc), LAB 45%(+8), LDEM 11%(-1), SNP 29%(-6)
Holyrood regional vote stands at CON 12%(nc), LAB 41%(+4), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 28%(-2)

A solid boost for Labour since the election, especially in the constituency vote. If repeated at the Scottish election next year it would leave Labour on about 60 seats, so not a long way short of an overall majority of 65.
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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

Looks like Salmond has an uphill task before Scotland goes to the polls next year.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
Interesting:


http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

Looks like Salmond has an uphill task before Scotland goes to the polls next year.
Click to expand...

This was always going to happen after a Tory govt has come to power. It may change back a bit depending on how the Scots are affected by cuts but there is a feeling that Labour are the only party to protect us from the Tories. For me that is defeatist and typically Scottish.
 
Given how small the drop is in the lib dem figures how sure are we of the poll's methodology?
 
It's an opinion poll. I didn't start threads whoopeeing when they were showing the SNP at 35%, because these things can change any time. Events - they take you by surprise.

Rolfe.
 
It depends, I think, on the extent to which the SNP was seen as the protest party - and with a Labour government in Westminster, that was fair enough. Will it continue when Labour, who enjoy traditionally strong support, are suddenly putting it to Cameron every night? Who knows. FWIW I think the SNP administration have done a competent job and shown they can govern effectively, but let's see what the rest of the electorate think.
 
Having a fair crack of the whip as regards press support would be helpful. Is there any other country where the governing political party has the support of precisely 0% of the press and media?

The recent defeat of the minimum pricing of alcohol bill was shameful. England will get this first, because the unionist parties will promote it in England. It had to be killed in Scotland to serve up a "defeat" to the SNP. Of course, this was duly reported as a defeat for the SNP in all the media reports.

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
Having a fair crack of the whip as regards press support would be helpful. Is there any other country where the governing political party has the support of precisely 0% of the press and media?
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Any country other than where?

2007-04-29

The Scottish National Party leader Mr Alex Salmond welcomed endorsements and positive statements from a series of Sunday newspapers this morning - in the Sunday Times, Sunday Herald, Scotland on Sunday, and the Sunday Express
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The above is from the SNP website. I don't know if it can be trusted but I believe the Scotsman also came out in support of the SNP for the last election.
 
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There have certainly been positive statements, and support for particular policies, but no paper has ever systematically supported the SNP as a matter of editorial policy. (Well, maybe the Scottish edition of the Sun in the early 1990s....)

And yes, the minimum price on alcohol bill was proposed by the Scottish government. It was defeated by all the other main parties voting against it. Apparently for no other reason than to inflict a defeat on the SNP, because these parties seem to support virtually identical legislation in England.

Rolfe.
 
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Rolfe said:
There have certainly been positive statements, and support for particular policies, but no paper has ever systematically supported the SNP as a matter of editorial policy. (Well, maybe the Scottish edition of the Sun in the early 1990s....)

Rolfe.
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Systematically papers adopt and oppose issues not parties. The only time the editor and a paper comes out and formally backs a particular party is at election time. Last Scottish election you had several papers supporting you.

It is not unusual for papers to critiscise a party's issues but at election time support them.

Was it the grauniad who said ‘Hold you nose and vote labour’?
 
There is a year to go - Labour have to elect a new leader and we have to see what happens to Liberal support now that Clegg is playing the mad axeman. The only real difficulty I have is that Gray is hugely uninspiring as Scottish Labour leader. If they had someone with more (any) charisma and capable of presenting a logical argument I would be pretty relaxed about either party winning. At the end of the day the reason the SNP and Labour parties hate each other so much is because they both want to occupy the same political turf. Salmond appears to be able to negotiate with the Coalition, I suspect Gray will not (I might be wrong of course).
 
Oh:

Rolfe said:
There have certainly been positive statements, and support for particular policies, but no paper has ever systematically supported the SNP as a matter of editorial policy. (Well, maybe the Scottish edition of the Sun in the early 1990s....)
Click to expand...

As you say earlier, Events.
 
Undesired Walrus said:
There is such a thing as a bad winner Rolfe.
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Interpret it like that if you want to, but I thought the thread was an interesting example of both the unreliability of opinion polls some months ahead of the election, and the genuinely unexpected level of the victory that transpired.

The extent of the landslide was phenomenal, and I don't think you can explain it all by the actions of the Scottish edition of the Sun - though obviously having a dreadful tabloid rag on your side doesn't hurt, as exemplified by the Daily Record's support for Labour.

Rolfe.
 
Newspapers support a political party because they're the most popular among people who believe that they are after reading it in the newspaper which based its support of a party on the general feeling of the public with this feeling gained from the newspapers who...
 
Indeed. But again, you're not attributing that landslide to the effect of one taboid rag, surely.

Rolfe.
 
No there were numerous reasons. The UK Government's perceived imperformance (if that's not a word I got dibs) was a major, major contributing factor I believe. I've already explained why I feel that the Libs were unfairly punished in another thread.

Truth is that the SNP represented a genuine choice that wasn't Labour or the Tories. Maybe they are the lesser of 3 (/4/5?) evils. But for independence, they'd have my vote. I wish them (nearly) every success in their governance.
 
I think you underestimate the sheer terror factor when regarding the prospect of Iain Gray as FM and the Scottish Labour numpties in government.

Except, when I mentioned that last night at our local SNP branch meeting, someone pointed out with perfect truth that since most of the electorate didn't even know who Iain Gray was, it probably wasn't as significant a factor as I was imagining.

Rolfe.
 
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