Utter failure of the 'Sunshine Policy'

[Puppycow]

Remember Kim Dae Jong's 'Sunshine Policy' for which he won a Nobel Peace Prize?

Well, it hasn't done a damn bit of good and it gives North Korea convenient South Korean hostages to bully as pawns in its sick psycho games.

N.Korea Threatens to Shut Off Traffic to Kaesong

Gov't Advises Caution at Kaesong Complex

A government official said, "It is likely that the North will threaten South Korean staff in the industrial park when we introduce sanctions against the North," which is believed to be implicated by the probe. "We're worried because we don't have any good ideas to deal with this."

There is no good way to pull all 1,000 South Korean staff out of the industrial park. Last Friday, as a kind of shot before the bow, North Korea arrested a South Korean staffer in Kaesong for carrying printed North Korean lecture materials, questioned him for three or four hours and then released him.

 

[dudalb]

Yeah, the Sunshine Policy sounds like a classic case of "Bait and Switch",
At times I think the kindest approach in the long run would be to cut off aid to North Korea and let events take their course. Keeping the regime on Life Support is just prolonging the agony.

 

[geni]

Yeah, the Sunshine Policy sounds like a classic case of "Bait and Switch",
At times I think the kindest approach in the long run would be to cut off aid to North Korea and let events take their course. Keeping the regime on Life Support is just prolonging the agony.

Won't work since it has become clear that china is perpared to keep the place upright on it's own.

 

[dudalb]

Well, at least China will be stuck with the bill.......

 

[ARubberChickenWithAPulley]

The Sunshine Policy had some small successes, but unfortunately, never resulted in any big ones. Even the smaller successes were mostly revealed to be a sham: it was later revealed that South Korea had to secretly pay North Korea hundreds of millions of dollars to play ball.

I don't blame Kim Dae Jung for giving it a shot. It was worth a try. But in the end, I think North Korea saw it as little more than an opportunity to get some cash in its pockets, and that's about it.

 

[theprestige]

Well, at least China will be stuck with the bill.......

If China were the only country having serious trouble with North Korea, maybe.

As it is, I'll bet China views North Korea more as a profitable strategic investment than anything else.

 

[Wolfman]

As it is, I'll bet China views North Korea more as a profitable strategic investment than anything else.

Are you insane?

North Korea is insane. And worse, they are an insane gov't that has nukes, and almost certainly also has chemical and biological weapons. And the two closest targets for those weapons are South Korea and China.

China doesn't view North Korea as a "strategic investment"...except perhaps in terms of "Let's try to prevent these maniacs from getting into a situation where they'll use their WMDs".

In a war with North Korea, the outcome is pretty much a certainty.

* The North Koreans will fight fanatically, refusing to admit defeat even when it is obvious to everyone else.

* The North Koreans will ultimately lose. They do not have the capability to defend against American weapons and technology. But it'll be a bloody, desperate battle.

* Once defeat is obvious, the North Koreans will use their WMDs. Of this, I don't think there is any doubt whatsoever. And even if not targeted at China, there is still a very high chance that radioactive fallout, or chemical/biological fallout, will drift over China, and have a significant impact here, also.

How does China view North Korea today?

They view them as a disaster that is just waiting to happen. And their only real interest at this point is in preventing that disaster. But when you're dealing with an insane leader who believes he is god, that becomes pretty damn tricky. The only thing you know for sure is that you don't want to make yourself a target, too.

 

[Wolfman]

Regarding the "Sunshine Policy", it was a joke from the very beginning.

Unfortunately, in the days before it became so obvious that North Korea's leadership was both insane and extremely unstable, China did do a lot to help strengthen and support them. And China does share the blame for the situation today.

Not terribly unlike the situation with Iraq, really...where the U.S. supported for years a despotic government that ultimately turned out to be their enemy.

Governments tend to make short-sighted decisions, out of self-interest for what "seems to be in our best interests at the moment", without much consideration for the more long-term consequences.

 

[ARubberChickenWithAPulley]

But when you're dealing with an insane leader who believes he is god, that becomes pretty damn tricky. The only thing you know for sure is that you don't want to make yourself a target, too.

The word 'insane' gets thrown around a bit too much in referring to Kim Jong Il -- in the sense that insanity implies mental instability and irrationality. And by most indications, he is neither. He's a dictator, and a brutal one for sure, but he is also very calculating and skilled at what he does. The vast majority of north Korea's actions have some purpose in mind -- and typically logical ones in the context of what they are trying to accomplish. Their national objectives are bizarre by most country's standards -- they center almost exclusively around preserving the leadership structure and cult of personality -- but to that end, KJI is very very good at it. But I think the idea that he is going to start randomly launching nukes or missiles (not sure if you were implying that here, but people seem to have that impression) is really, really, really unlikely. He has no intention or desire to get into a major war, since it would very likely end with his regime destroyed. The north Korean military leaders aren't stupid; They saw what we did to Iraq (in fact, they studied Gulf War I very carefully and made substantial improvements in various areas to counter what they perceived as U.S. strengths) and know what they would be up against.

KJI is very good at poking and prodding with little incidents to keep himself in the news. In this case, he clearly miscalculated. IMO, the fact that north Korea has publicly denied that they are responsible is an indication that either a) the whole thing was done 'unauthorized' by the captain of the sub or that b) it was intentional, but they drastically underestimated the damage the torpedo would cause, and thus are now trying to disown the entire act. Typically, they're happy to own their little tantrums, and they'll try to justify it (they shot first, they were in our waters, etc.).

 

[Wolfman]

But I think the idea that he is going to start randomly launching nukes or missiles (not sure if you were implying that here, but people seem to have that impression) is really, really, really unlikely. He has no intention or desire to get into a major war, since it would very likely end with his regime destroyed. The north Korean military leaders aren't stupid; They saw what we did to Iraq (in fact, they studied Gulf War I very carefully and made substantial improvements in various areas to counter what they perceived as U.S. strengths) and know what they would be up against.

Please note, I said that he would use WMDs (not just nukes) in the event that war broke out, and defeat seemed inevitable. And if war breaks out, defeat will be inevitable. Call it insanity or not...but I do not doubt for a second that he and other military leaders would use these weapons if defeat seemed likely.

"We're about to be defeated, and face almost certain execution at the hands of our enemies. And gee...we've got all these nukes, and chemical weapons, and biological weapons laying around. And we really have nothing left to lose." <-- what decision seems most likely?

And brilliance doesn't mean a lack of insanity. Every indication I've seen does argue that he believes himself to be either a god, or a direct emissary of some divine power. Yeah, he's great at manipulating the people, keeping them under control, etc...so was Charles Manson, and a number of other charismatic/powerful nutcases throughout history.

 

[ARubberChickenWithAPulley]

Please note, I said that he would use WMDs (not just nukes) in the event that war broke out, and defeat seemed inevitable. And if war breaks out, defeat will be inevitable. Call it insanity or not...but I do not doubt for a second that he and other military leaders would use these weapons if defeat seemed likely.

I don't disagree, but there are still questions about whether they even have a device they could deliver anywhere. They put significant resources into just getting two devices to the point that they could test them (and the first one was embarrassingly bad). But sure, if they could use them, they would if they had no other options. Although Hwang Jang Yop, probably the most senior defector to come out of north Korea (and who knows KJI quite well) disagrees with that.

"We're about to be defeated, and face almost certain execution at the hands of our enemies. And gee...we've got all these nukes, and chemical weapons, and biological weapons laying around. And we really have nothing left to lose." <-- what decision seems most likely?

north Korea doesn't see chemical weapons as a WMD to begin with, so they would probably use them. Their military doctrine sees chemical weapons a conventional weapon to be used as a force multiplier and to deny terrain.

And brilliance doesn't mean a lack of insanity. Every indication I've seen does argue that he believes himself to be either a god, or a direct emissary of some divine power.

I'm not sure about that. I have no doubt he is as narcissistic and utterly self-centered as any dictator, but I've seen plenty to indicate that he is generally aware that the cult of personality is a charade. Michael Breen makes that point in his book on Kim. There is also a story (I'll see if I can find a cite. It was either Hwang or Sun Hae Rong, his sister in law) of him waving to a crowd, and whispering "I'm not stupid. I know this is all fake." For a guy who considers himself a god, Kim is notoriously uncomfortable in public (particularly compared to his father). He does occasional visits to factories and such, but he doesn't do large public speeches, appearances, etc. as his father did. He seems genuinely insecure about himself -- his height, his his weight, his squeaky voice, etc.

Yeah, he's great at manipulating the people, keeping them under control, etc...so was Charles Manson, and a number of other charismatic/powerful nutcases throughout history.

I suppose it depends on how you define "insane." I think someone can be sane and be very twisted and evil. My point is that he's not insane the sense that a lot of people think he is. He's not likely to just pop off randomly and start a war, or randomly launch missiles and WMDs. I think that he'd definitely use them in certain contexts as you note above, but he fully understands what he's doing and the consequences of what he's doing.