Will Clegg have the bottle

Most of the SNP for starters. Roseanna Cunningham had her fingers crossed behind her back. However, that's not the point. The other parties are prepared to go along with the oath for the sake of taking their seats. Sinn Fein, absolutely no way.

I don't see them breaking that absolute and longstanding point of principle just to get involved in the current games. Their constituents might just lynch them.

Rolfe.
 
Here's the BBC graphic they've been showing on TV for the past couple of days.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8659878.stm

Labour plus LibDem is 315.

They then put the 8 DUP and one Independent Unionist automatically with the Conservatives to give them 315, and the SDLP with Labour to give 318. Still almost neck and neck.

This leaves 6 SNP, 3 PC, one Green and one Alliance holding the balance of power.

Labour has (rumour) said it would rather see the Conservatives in government than do any deal with the SNP. The SNP is not averse to dealing with Labour, but during the election campaign said the party would support legislation on an ad hoc basis so far as it was good for Scotland rather than going into a formal alliance or coalition.

There's a suggestion Labour might go ahead with a formal LibDem/SDLP coalition and bank on the nationalists abstaining rather than voting with the Tories. This is a pretty fair bet, but the arithmetic looks much too tight to me even with that assumption.

How certain are the BBC's assumptions about the NI parties, anyway? I'm no expert but I suspect the BBC does have experts compiling these charts.

Rolfe.
Be fair though, the Unionist Independent hates the Tories, and the Alliance Party are firmly with the Libs.
 
The sky may be about to fall. I'm listening to Panorama, and I find myself 100% in agreement with John Reid. I never in a gazillion years thought I'd agree with him about what time it was.

Rolfe.
 
The sky may be about to fall. I'm listening to Panorama, and I find myself 100% in agreement with John Reid. I never in a gazillion years thought I'd agree with him about what time it was.

Rolfe.


Just was watching the same thing and disagreeing with everything the man said! :)
 
Here's the BBC graphic they've been showing on TV for the past couple of days.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8659878.stm

Labour plus LibDem is 315.

They then put the 8 DUP and one Independent Unionist automatically with the Conservatives to give them 315, and the SDLP with Labour to give 318. Still almost neck and neck.

This leaves 6 SNP, 3 PC, one Green and one Alliance holding the balance of power.

Labour has (rumour) said it would rather see the Conservatives in government than do any deal with the SNP. The SNP is not averse to dealing with Labour, but during the election campaign said the party would support legislation on an ad hoc basis so far as it was good for Scotland rather than going into a formal alliance or coalition.

There's a suggestion Labour might go ahead with a formal LibDem/SDLP coalition and bank on the nationalists abstaining rather than voting with the Tories. This is a pretty fair bet, but the arithmetic looks much too tight to me even with that assumption.

How certain are the BBC's assumptions about the NI parties, anyway? I'm no expert but I suspect the BBC does have experts compiling these charts.

Rolfe.

Given how tight the sums are, you can't just ignore the speaker. His three deputies also do not vote.

Currently Speaker is a Tory (Bercow) and two deputy posts are vacant as the sitting MP's (Heal and Lord) both stood down.

Chairman of Ways & Means (first deputy speaker, presides over Budget debates) in the previous parliament was a Tory, Alan Hazelhurst. If Lab/Lib try to put together a coalition, he might come under pressure to stand down and Tories refuse to back a Tory alternative.

At the very least, I suspect that the two vacancies will be filled by either Labour or Liberal MP's. So instead of 315, they will have 313 votes. They can probably rely on the SDLP, which gets them to 316. To get to 321 (650 total less 5 SF, 4 Speaker/Deputies = 641, 321 to get majority), they would need to also add either the Welsh Nationalists, the Green and the Independent Unionist (3+1+1), or the SNP (6) or the DUP (8). DUP and SNP probably not interested (and in any event SNP don't vote on purely English matters so would not have a majority for those matters if only SNP involved).

I find it hard to believe that the Lib Dems will support such a fragile coalition, especially when it would put Brown back in (temporarily) and then a new, unelected PM once Labour chooses a new leader. I suspect the press will be digging out everything a Liberal MP has ever said about having an unelected PM already.
 
That's a point. I was ignoring the Speaker, because I was also ignoring Thirsk, and I thought they would cancel each other out.

I simply can't see how the arithmetic works, and I've been saying that from the start. If it had been a lot closer between Labour and the Tories, so that a Labour/LibDem coalition had a decent working majority, it might have been a different matter. But frankly it doesn't add up and I don't know why so many commentators are pretending it could.

Also, Brown isn't going to leave for months, and we have no real idea who would replace him. This coalition of the losers is going to be forged with no idea who might be leading it? This is ridiculous, quite honestly.

Rolfe.
 
Brian Taylor is talking about a possible Lib/Lab coalition, with the SNP offering a confidence and supply deal at the price of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland.
Chance would be a fine thing. This is cloud cuckoo land.

Rolfe (hopes it's not....)
 
Given how tight the sums are, you can't just ignore the speaker. His three deputies also do not vote.

Convention is that the Speaker may vote in the case of a tie and then in such a way as not to do something which could not be undone e.g. to vote to pass a particular bill. Quite often this may be a vote in favour of the current government as to vote against the government might cause it to fall.

Currently Speaker is a Tory (Bercow)

Speakers automatically cut ties with their previously affiliated party (which apparently was not difficult in Bercow's case as a lot of Tories couldn't stand him).
 
That's a point. I was ignoring the Speaker, because I was also ignoring Thirsk, and I thought they would cancel each other out.

I simply can't see how the arithmetic works, and I've been saying that from the start. If it had been a lot closer between Labour and the Tories, so that a Labour/LibDem coalition had a decent working majority, it might have been a different matter. But frankly it doesn't add up and I don't know why so many commentators are pretending it could.

Also, Brown isn't going to leave for months, and we have no real idea who would replace him. This coalition of the losers is going to be forged with no idea who might be leading it? This is ridiculous, quite honestly.

Rolfe.

It would be insanity to enter into an agreement that can be pulled down by a tiny backbench rebellion or any of the parties falling out. Or of course, by losing a by-election. 16 in the last parliament, roughly three a year.
 
Also, Brown isn't going to leave for months, and we have no real idea who would replace him. This coalition of the losers is going to be forged with no idea who might be leading it? This is ridiculous, quite honestly.

Well it's obviously in the lib dem's interests to make noises about everyone but the tories coalition (heh waiting for cameron to open up talks with centerist labour MPs).

Problem is the Lib dem-Tory coalition doesn't look much less ridiculous. Neither side can move very far without hitting loyaty issues. Even if clegg wouldn't back a no confidence vote in a tory goverment there are a fair number of lib dems that would.
 
Brian Taylor is talking about a possible Lib/Lab coalition, with the SNP offering a confidence and supply deal at the price of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland.
Chance would be a fine thing. This is cloud cuckoo land.

Rolfe (hopes it's not....)

Depends how you spin it. £71 Billion pound reduction in national debt.....
 
Most of the SNP for starters. Roseanna Cunningham had her fingers crossed behind her back. However, that's not the point. The other parties are prepared to go along with the oath for the sake of taking their seats. Sinn Fein, absolutely no way.

I don't see them breaking that absolute and longstanding point of principle just to get involved in the current games. Their constituents might just lynch them.

Rolfe.

Well, I'm cheered to think there may be one party in politics prepared to stand by their principles.

Ironic that it should be Sinn Feinn.
 
Convention is that the Speaker may vote in the case of a tie and then in such a way as not to do something which could not be undone e.g. to vote to pass a particular bill. Quite often this may be a vote in favour of the current government as to vote against the government might cause it to fall.

Convention is to vote in favour of more debate, against any amendments to a bill and against final passage of a bill.

Will vote for the government in confidence motions (apparently George Thomas said he would have voted with the government in the event of a tied confidence motion in 1979).

So they can rely on the Speaker to keep them in power, but not to pass any legislation.

If I understand it correctly!

Speakers automatically cut ties with their previously affiliated party (which apparently was not difficult in Bercow's case as a lot of Tories couldn't stand him).

Technically yes, but Bercow is included in the Tory seats total as reported on the BBC of 306 (with one seat to come which they will win).

Getting Bercow elected speaker might be one of Labour's main achievement in the last parliament! Assuming he gets re-elected as Speaker of course.
 
Well it's obviously in the lib dem's interests to make noises about everyone but the tories coalition (heh waiting for cameron to open up talks with centerist labour MPs).

Problem is the Lib dem-Tory coalition doesn't look much less ridiculous. Neither side can move very far without hitting loyaty issues. Even if clegg wouldn't back a no confidence vote in a tory goverment there are a fair number of lib dems that would.

It would need to be virtually all Lib Dems backing a no confidence vote to mean a Lib dem - Tory coalition actually lost.

Whereas in a rainbow coalition, it might only need one or two from any party (or three or four abstentions).
 
There have been rumours flying around all evening about Labour spokesmen saying they'd rather see the Tories in power in Westminster than come to any agreement with the SNP. This is crystallising to Tom Harris (Glasgow South) on Newsnight saying pretty much that, and/or that he and his colleagues would never under any circumstances sit on the same benches as the SNP.

Labour are also apparently saying that they won't offer PR but merely a switch to the AV system, which is what the Conservatives were offering to Clegg as well. The main difference is that the Conservatives were offering a referendum on the proposal while Labour say they'll just buldoze it through.

Labour have invented a myth for themselves that the SNP were responsible for bringing down the Callaghan government in 1979 and letting in Margaret Thatcher. This isn't of course the whole truth, but it seems to have become their version of canon.

In 1979 we had the first referendum on devolution for Scotland. Labour officially supported a yes vote, but didn't campaign for that on the ground and in fact there was some campaigning against it. The Conservatives supported a no vote - but not because they opposed devolution, but because they said the powers offered were insufficient (which they were) and the best thing to do was to vote no, then an incoming Conservative government would put forward a much better bill with significantly wider powers. The SNP was left running the "yes" campaign almost single-handed. I know of SNP activists who took off their party identification and went to Labour offices to offer to deliver their "yes" literature that was sitting untouched in the printer's boxes, then pushed both that and the SNP's literature through the doors together.

The vote was scuppered by an English Labour MP who proposed an amendment that 40% of the registered electorate had to vote Yes or the bill would fall. Despite the obvious problems with the electoral roll (double registration, dead people and so on), this was passed. In the end although the yes vote was over 50% it wasn't over 40% of the notional electorate, and the Labour government announced no devolution.

As the Callaghan government began to shake, the SNP demanded that the will of the majority of voters be honoured and that the Scotland Act be passed, as their price for supporting Callaghan in a vote of confidence. Labour refused. The SNP votes were instrumental in the loss of that vote, but so were the Liberals.

In 1979, nobody imagined what Thatcher was going to be like. She had in fact promised a better and stronger devolution settlement if voters rejected Labour's bill. Nobody knows how many no votes were cast on that understanding. The SNP saw Labour as having betrayed the Scottish popular vote, and themselves as under no obligation to go on supporting the Labour government.

However, this is spun as the treacherous SNP knowingly delivering Scotland into the hands of the Iron Lady. Actually, if the Labour devolution bill had been passed and a Scottish parliament been in existence, Scotland might have resisted the worst depredations of Thatcherism - which was going to come anyway, nothing Labour or the SNP could have done would have avoided it. But Labour rigged the vote, and refused to keep its promise to Scottish voters, so Scotland was left defenceless through the 1980s.

Every time any question of co-operation comes up (or even any time Labour need a quick insult to throw at the SNP), this supposed "opening of the door to Thatcher" is brought up. Now, it seems, it is to be the reason why Labour would rather see a Tory government in power than come to any arrangement with a perfectly amenable SNP. And yet they'd be happy with a coalition with the LibDems, when the Liberal party also voted for that no confidence motion.

Nice one, guys.

Rolfe.
 
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Labour are also apparently saying that they won't offer PR but merely a switch to the AV system, which is what the Conservatives were offering to Clegg as well. The main difference is that the Conservatives were offering a referendum on the proposal while Labour say they'll just buldoze it through.

Of course the lib dems are opposed to such a change without a referendum. There is also the problem that AV tends to produce even more squewed results than first past the post so I'm not sure what labour and the tories think they are up to.
 
Hoping nobody understands the difference between "electoral reform" and "proportional representation"? So they can say, we offered the LibDems electoral reform but they didn't want it after all?

This is all looking very sticky. Dang. I don't want to have to leaflet the entire neighbourhood again next month.

Rolfe.
 
Hoping nobody understands the difference between "electoral reform" and "proportional representation"? So they can say, we offered the LibDems electoral reform but they didn't want it after all?

This is all looking very sticky. Dang. I don't want to have to leaflet the entire neighbourhood again next month.

Unlikely. Neither lib dems or labour have much to gain from such an outcome and it wouldn't look good for the tories if they tried to force it.

The fallback people are talking about appears to be a tory minority goverment with the lib dems backing their budget in exchange for concessions.

Are PC still just asking for money?
 
That's a point. I was ignoring the Speaker, because I was also ignoring Thirsk, and I thought they would cancel each other out.

I simply can't see how the arithmetic works, and I've been saying that from the start. If it had been a lot closer between Labour and the Tories, so that a Labour/LibDem coalition had a decent working majority, it might have been a different matter. But frankly it doesn't add up and I don't know why so many commentators are pretending it could.

Also, Brown isn't going to leave for months, and we have no real idea who would replace him. This coalition of the losers is going to be forged with no idea who might be leading it? This is ridiculous, quite honestly.

Rolfe.

Governments are not formed purely on arithmetic though. There needs to be policy decisions taken. All 3 discussed options (Con minority, Con/Lib and Con/Lab) will have the potential for working or not working depending on how well they can corral their own side and how arsey the opposition want to be.

As an SNP supporter are you telling me that your MPs will act like spoilt children and vote against policy proposed by Lab/Lib just because they aren't in the coalition? Salmond himself said the party would vote on a policy by policy basis and surely if the Lab/Lib coalition put forward sensible workable policies then most of them will get through?
 

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