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Jonbennet Ramsey

And, if the police had acted in a rational way when they went to the house, the murder might well have been resolved in a couple of weeks.

I am ashamed that the US media have given up on this case after all the "effort" they put in initially. :scared:
 
There is a website, Eyes for Lies, done by a woman who is good at detecting deception by reading people's facial expressions.

Ummm... just wondering, who exactly claims she is 'good at detecting deception'? Is there a reason we should trust her opinion over that of, for example, FBI investigators? She sounds a bit 'wooish' to me.
 
Ummm... just wondering, who exactly claims she is 'good at detecting deception'? Is there a reason we should trust her opinion over that of, for example, FBI investigators? She sounds a bit 'wooish' to me.

Research on the subject of detecting deception shows that even professionals are rather bad at doing this.

Consistently, empirical research has shown that many of the behavioural cues that police are trained to use – such as gaze aversion, rigid posture, and fidgeting – are not diagnostic of truth and deception; that laypeople on average are only 54% accurate; that training produces only marginal improvement; and that police investigators, like judges, psychiatrists, customs inspectors, and other professionals who make these judgments for a living, perform only slightly better, if at all.
 
This case was described in the book "The Cases that Haunt Us" by John Douglas. (John Douglas was a criminal profiler with the FBI for years; after he retired, he wrote several books.)

http://www.amazon.ca/Cases-That-Haunt-Us/dp/0684846004


And it appears the dad got impatient waiting for the police to discover the body.

Actually, no... From the description of the events in the book, it wasn't the father that got impatient.... it was a detective left at the house who suggested they do a search of the basement.

Oh, and by the way... it was the father who discovered the body; however, usually in these cases (when the killer is involved in a search), the killer themselves won't discover the body but they'll send someone else to make the find.

The note was suspicious.
Why was it suspicious? Yes, it was written on paper located in the house. But its quite possible that the killer would have had access to the house for hours before the family returned... more than enough time to find paper to write the note.

It should also be noted that the handwriting in the note didn't match one of the parents at all (I think it was the father but I could be wrong), and it was only a marginal match to the other parent (such that many people would have had a similar 'match').

The murder weapon was suspicious.

Why is that? After all, murders do sometimes happen using items the killer happens to find at the scene.

Murdering the child in the house was suspicious.

Yet other killers have also killed people 'in their own house'.

And while it may not be a perfect science, the parents bizarre emotional facies during interviews matched guilty parents.
Just wondering, how exactly do you expect the parents to react? They've lost a daughter, and then found their lives upturned by the police.

The only one who really fooled me in news interviews was Susan Smith.
I see...

Just wondering, how many killers do you happen to watch interviews with? How many were parents? How many are you sure you identified correctly? And if you can mess up Susan Smith, why do you think your analysis of the Ramsey's is any better?

There are other factors that suggest it is someone other than the Ramseys. For example:

- There was a window in the basement that was broken (it had been like that for a while), and there was outside debris in the basement.

- Footprints were found in the basement that did not mach any of the Ramsey family

- There is evidence of burn marks on the body that might have come from a taser (a weapon the family did not have)

Keep in mind that most of the suspicion of the Ramseys is from the police. Yet this is the same police force that was so incompetent that they didn't even bother to properly secure the crime scene back when they thought it was a kidnapping.
 
Ummm... just wondering, who exactly claims she is 'good at detecting deception'?


Maureen O'Sullivan, for one. She's a professor of psychology who conducted research on lie detection. Here is a link to MSNBC, which quotes from an AP news story on O'Sullivan's research.

MSNBC said:
The clues aren’t as obvious as Pinocchio’s nose, but there’s a small group of individuals who can detect the subtle signs that people reveal when they lie.

The vast majority of people don’t notice those flickers of falsehood, but psychology professor Maureen O’Sullivan has found a few that can find the fibbers nearly every time.

Of 13,000 people tested for the ability to detect deception, “we found 31, who we call wizards, who are usually able to tell whether the person is lying, whether the lie is about an opinion, how someone is feeling or about a theft,” she said.

O’Sullivan, who teaches at the University of San Francisco, discussed her findings Thursday at the American Medical Association’s 23rd Annual Science Reporters Conference.

O’Sullivan conducts seminars for police officers and others on how to detect lying, and said observing the wizards helps researchers direct further study.


I am not personally familiar with O'Sullivan, but she appears to be reputable. Here's a link to her academic papers (including the one referred to in the news story).

She [Eyes for Lies] sounds a bit 'wooish' to me.


What is it about her or what she has written that you find wooish?

Her basic claim is that she is able to observe subtle cues, especially in facial expressions, which indicate deception. I've seen a number of news stories in recent years related to this. As I recall, a study a few years ago found that certain autistic people were very good at detecting deception. So I don't find the basic claim to be inherently wooish.

She has been posting her analyses on her site for several years now, and according to her scorecard has a fairly good record. I am not personally familiar with the cases, so am not qualified to judge how good her record on these cases is, but on the surface her claim to a good track record looks reasonable and credible to me.

Is there a reason we should trust her opinion over that of, for example, FBI investigators?


Potentially, yes. Of 13,000 people tested by O'Sullivan for ability to detect deception, she ranked in the top 50. I don't know if individual FBI investigators were tested, or where they placed if they were. But I suspect that on average FBI investigators, even with training, are not that good.

That's not to say that Eyes for Lies would be better at catching criminals than FBI investigators are. Suspecting that a person is being deceptive is only one part of the job. FBI investigators might not be as good at detecting deception, but more skilled at figuring out exactly what the deception is once they do suspect it. People, after all, are deceptive on a large number of things for a large number of reasons.

What she claims to have is a fairly limited skill: being able to spot, with a fair degree of accuracy, signs that a person is being deceptive. I think that makes her analyses of various cases interesting, and potentially worth a read.
 
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I don't know the case, but isn't he innocent until proven guilty? He doesn't need to be 'cleared'. He could be 'uncleared', if there were a case against him other than malicious gossip by internet 'experts'.
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From the Wikipedia Article on "Presumption of Innocence":


The presumption means:
  1. With respect to the critical facts of the case - whether the crime charged was committed and whether the defendant was the person who committed the crime - the state has the entire burden of proof.
  2. With respect to the critical facts of the case, the defendant does not have any burden of proof whatsoever. The defendant does not have to testify, call witnesses or present any other evidence, and if the defendant elects not to testify or present evidence, this decision cannot be used against them.
  3. The jury or judge is not to draw any negative inferences from the fact the defendant has been charged with a crime and is present in court and represented by an attorney. They must decide the case solely on evidence presented during the trial.
Thus (if Wikipedia's info is valid in this case), (1) The asserting party must prove the assertion of guilt; (2a) the defending party is not obligated by law to make a counter-assertion, and (2b) failure to make a counter-assertion is not de facto evidence of guilt; (3a) just because a person is a suspect, it does not automatically mean that he or she is guilty; (3b) there can be no 'metagaming' involved in reaching a verdict; and (4) this is all in context of a trial process that occurs within a court of law, and does not apply to speculation in the media or by the general public.
 
Ummm... just wondering, who exactly claims she is 'good at detecting deception'? Is there a reason we should trust her opinion over that of, for example, FBI investigators? She sounds a bit 'wooish' to me.
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What is her track record, hits to misses?
Having been polygraphed for security clearances, with made-up lies to give some sort of "baseline" response, what would this lady do in those 13000 cases.. were these cases where there was a real reason to be evasive, or just a meaningless..
"Answer yes to these questions"... "Nebraska is the state capitol of Idaho", for instance..
 
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Ummm... just wondering, who exactly claims she is 'good at detecting deception'?
Maureen O'Sullivan, for one. She's a professor of psychology who conducted research on lie detection.

I am not personally familiar with O'Sullivan, but she appears to be reputable. Here's a link to her academic papers (including the one referred to in the news story).
Hmmm... something seems a bit, well, strange... O'Sullivan teaches Psychology, but many of the references in that list are for Cancer research. I know its certainly not impossible that someone is an expert in more than one field, but is it possible that there is more than one "Maureen O'Sullivan" and that this list has mixed the 2 of them up?

By the way, if you look through the list, you'll also see that one of the papers is actually a response to criticisms that her paper generated. (I don't have access to the original papers but it appears some people have characterized her results as a "statistical fluke".)

What is it about her or what she has written that you find wooish?

Her basic claim is that she is able to observe subtle cues, especially in facial expressions, which indicate deception.
Problem is, there can be many reasons why people exhibit certain 'clues', including biological, cultural and personal.... if they think "strange smile indicates lying", it could mean that the person is lying... or it could mean that they just had dental work done, or that their dog just died and they're trying to put on a brave face. Or its possible that the person is being deceptive about something, but just not on the relevant issue.

She may be right more often than wrong (and, from references provided earlier in the thread, there are studies to show clues can be used to determine truth), but I have doubts that her accuracy is enough to consider her a "human lie detector".

She has been posting her analyses on her site for several years now, and according to her scorecard has a fairly good record. I am not personally familiar with the cases, so am not qualified to judge how good her record on these cases is, but on the surface her claim to a good track record looks reasonable and credible to me.
Of course, the thing is, it is herself keeping track of her own 'successes'. Much like a psychic, she may attempt to minimize her failures. Plus, in some cases, she may have had other information guiding her. (For example, I doubt in the case of the Ramseys that she did her analysis knowing nothing about the case.)

Is there a reason we should trust her opinion over that of, for example, FBI investigators?
Potentially, yes. Of 13,000 people tested by O'Sullivan for ability to detect deception, she ranked in the top 50. I don't know if individual FBI investigators were tested, or where they placed if they were.
Guess I need to clarify... I'm not comparing just the ability to detect lies. What I'm doing is comparing her "lie detection" ability against the abilities of FBI and competent police agencies to properly examine all evidence.
 
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...

Problem is, there can be many reasons why people exhibit certain 'clues', including biological, cultural and personal.... if they think "strange smile indicates lying", it could mean that the person is lying... or it could mean that they just had dental work done, or that their dog just died and they're trying to put on a brave face. Or its possible that the person is being deceptive about something, but just not on the relevant issue.

...
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One of our guys failed the poly and lost his job because the question "Have you done anything to be ashamed of" hit too close to home as he was in the middle of a messy divorce.
Another got tossed because he'd heard there were ways to fool the poly, the tack in the shoe kind of thing.
He was wrong.
 
(4) this is all in context of a trial process that occurs within a court of law, and does not apply to speculation in the media or by the general public.

You're right, a lynch mob is under no obligation to follow any of the rules of any authorative body in its society.
 
And she managed to get this "DNA carrying dirt" or sit on a "contaminated toilet" in her own home? She'd be put to bed in her night clothes, do you think she snuck out for a night on the town and got it on her? Perhaps you need to rename yourself Richard Reid because that is some major stretching you are doing.
You are assuming the PJs came right out of the laundry? And the kid had a bath just before getting into them?

Do you have a link indicating the amount of DNA that was found? Was there even enough to say what type of cell it came from?
 
Reed Richards?

This sounds almost as mad as accusing the McCanns of being responsible for Madeleine's death, quite honestly.

Grieving parents can come across in different ways. I was completely taken in by Shannon Matthews's mother's little act on camera, and it turned out she'd conspired to abduct the child herself. I always felt there was something false about Kate McCann, but the facts tell me this impression is simply wrong. And so on.

Rolfe.
Some of the guilty parents over the years have fooled us. But how many of the ones with more incriminating behavior have been exonerated?

I can't tell about the McCanns. I think that one is 50:50. It's not so unclear about the Ramsey case.
 
The letter of apology from the Boulder DA to John Ramsey gives a few more details:
That DA has a motive to write such a letter. He was criticized for how they handled the case. And John Ramsey had friends within the local government (can't recall the details there).

The description of the DNA suggests it was really tiny amount. If they found the same DNA on the ransom note, the garrote or the pen used to write the note or something else, then you have something tying an unknown male to the crime.

Did this criminal have gloves on for everything except handling the tights? The DNA in question has other explanations including contamination after the fact.
 
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Why is that? After all, murders do sometimes happen using items the killer happens to find at the scene.

Not to mention that the duct tape and nylon cord used to tie JonBenet and tape her mouth were never found. This would seem to indicate that the murderer brought them with him and carried them out.

It would seem unlikely that the Ramseys would kill their daughter, then carefully stage a crime scene (including sexually assaulting their daughter or their daughter's body, tying her up, and putting duct tape over her mouth) and dispose of the nylon cord and duct tape, yet then leave a piece of a paint brush from their house on her body, and leave the pad of paper they used for the ransom note sitting in plain sight.

So okay, they're not exactly experienced criminals, so maybe they were just really shoddy and really lucky that the police work was so lousy.

But when you factor in: No obvious motive. Unidentified male DNA on the panties, tights, and DNA under her fingernails. An unidentified footprint in the basement. An obvious entry point. Duct tape and rope missing... and so on -- the idea of an intruder seems a lot more likely.

I'm sure we could still create a scenario that fits all that evidence where the Ramseys did it, but it seems like you'd be stretching things quite a bit to make it fit.
 
Some of the guilty parents over the years have fooled us. But how many of the ones with more incriminating behavior have been exonerated?

I can't tell about the McCanns. I think that one is 50:50.


You can NOT be SERIOUS!!!

Rolfe.
 
Hmmm... something seems a bit, well, strange... O'Sullivan teaches Psychology, but many of the references in that list are for Cancer research. I know its certainly not impossible that someone is an expert in more than one field, but is it possible that there is more than one "Maureen O'Sullivan" and that this list has mixed the 2 of them up?


Yes, that's certainly possible. I'm not familiar with O'Sullivan, so I don't know what papers she has or hasn't written. However, attempting to look up one of the medical papers on the list (in hope of finding a copy of the article itself, as that would likely identify the Maureen O'Sullivan who co-wrote it) lead me to a separate academic source which lists O'Sullivan's papers -- and this list also includes the paper on lie detection. So if it's an error, it appears to be a widespread one.

If someone can go by a med library and look up one of her articles (or if someone can find a copy of one available online) that would be a good way to settle it. The actual article should include some note identifying the author -- what school she is associated with, for instance. But until then I'm inclined to give O'Sullivan the benefit of the doubt. Legitimate sources indicate she's a reputable academic. A cursory search by me did not turn up any instances of her endorsing questionable pseudo-scientific beliefs.

That doesn't mean there isn't something out there to be dug up. And even if she is a legit academic, that doesn't mean she's correct in her findings.

But the question was asked, Who says Eyes for Lies has an ability to detect lies? I was providing an answer. There is at least one person, who appears to be a legitimate academic, who tested her (along with a lot of other people) and says she is gifted in that area.

She may be right more often than wrong (and, from references provided earlier in the thread, there are studies to show clues can be used to determine truth), but I have doubts that her accuracy is enough to consider her a "human lie detector".


I agree. That's a colorful, attention-grabbing description, and people today are fond of such things. (Even, regrettably, many folks who post on this site.) It's something which I think we as skeptics should be striving to avoid in our own writing, and trying to encourage others to show similar restraint in theirs.

What Eyes for Lies actually claims to be able to do, if one reads what she has written on her site, is a bit more modest.

In offering up the link to her analysis of what was said on a CBS program, I did not mean to imply this was the last word on the subject -- simply that it is an interesting analysis of the case which might be worth reading for folks who are still puzzling over the JonBenet Ramsey case.


Of course, the thing is, it is herself keeping track of her own 'successes'. Much like a psychic, she may attempt to minimize her failures. Plus, in some cases, she may have had other information guiding her. (For example, I doubt in the case of the Ramseys that she did her analysis knowing nothing about the case.)


Again, you have a good point. I am not particularly interested in murder cases myself, so I am not familiar enough with the cases she has weighed in on to be able to do a fair evaluation of her success rate myself.

But in reading what she has written, I am inclined to judge her favorably. She makes rather straightforward statements and predictions in her analyses, and the actual analyses are still up there for people to read and evaluate for themselves. As far as I can see, she has done a reasonably fair job in reporting her successes and failure.

This is not like "psychics" who babble on at great length and then, after the case has been solved, abstract the few items in their babblings which, quoted selectively enough, may sound like hits. A distinguishing characteristic is that "psychics" almost never provide the complete transcript of what they said, and only select out the bits they claim were their predictions after the fact. With Eyes for Lies, the complete transcripts of her analyses are right there -- and she is posting them, publicly, while the cases are in progress.

Guess I need to clarify... I'm not comparing just the ability to detect lies. What I'm doing is comparing her "lie detection" ability against the abilities of FBI and competent police agencies to properly examine all evidence.


Guess I need to clarify, too. I'm not saying Eyes for Lies is the last word on the Ramsey case, or that her opinion trumps any contrary opinion by FBI or police agencies. I am saying that, for those intrigued by the case, she is an interesting source and that her observations are worth considering.

I am motivated a lot in life by curiosity. In trying to figure out the answers to things, I look at a lot of different -- often conflicting -- sources. Some sources are worth giving weight to; others carry little to no weight.

Eyes for Lies seems to do a reasonably good job of analyzing people's statements and pinpointing places which appear deceptive. As such, she seems a source worth giving some weight to, and putting on the scales with various other sources to try to figure out where the balance lies.
 
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Yes, that's certainly possible. I'm not familiar with O'Sullivan, so I don't know what papers she has or hasn't written. However, attempting to look up one of the medical papers on the list (in hope of finding a copy of the article itself, as that would likely identify the Maureen O'Sullivan who co-wrote it) lead me to a separate academic source which lists O'Sullivan's papers -- and this list also includes the paper on lie detection. So if it's an error, it appears to be a widespread one.


Oops! Correction: obvious error in what I wrote. I just looked a little more closely at the site I just cited, and it is doing a search of papers by M. O'Sullivan. That, obviously, will turn up many papers which are not by Maureen O'Sullivan.

My apologies. And your theory, that the first list may have works by different authors, seems a little more likely now. Hold on and I'll try to check more carefully.
 
Did this criminal have gloves on for everything except handling the tights?

The tight and panties, yes. This would make quite a bit of sense, actually. The first DNA they collected (which they collected early on in the investigation) was found in a blood spot in her panties. So yes: the killer takes his gloves off to sexually assault JonBenet. He pulls her tights down, digitally penetrates her (causing the bleeding) and leaves his DNA co-mingled with her blood, as well as the "touch" DNA on her longjohns when he pulled them down.

And to be clear, they found the same DNA on three different spots: In her panties, on the waistband of her longjohns, and on the side of her longjohns.
 

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