• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Will the real 10 year cost of ObamaCare be over $6 trillion?

Hiding is not really the right phrase. There are differences in the definitions of terms, for example "live births" is so widely variant as to make the OECD comparisons of "live births" preposterous.
OK, let's not use hiding. Let's think about the countries under question. Do you think the health care in Germany, France or the other countries I mentioned is vastly different than ours?

Why is the dismal track record of the US Government in conceiving, administering, and expanding Social Security and Medicare not prima facie evidence of the likely result of expansion of these very same programs, eg., "universal health care"?
Is it a dismal track record? I am not sure I agree with you. Medicare does seem to be in a world of hurt, I agree. Social Security - not so much. I heard on the radio today that a study showed that a 1% increase in each of the employers and employees contribution would set SS solvent for another 75 years. SS has been doing its job quite well for many years, longer than many other govt programs. It needs some help again today but is not an insurmountable problem.
 
PS: I'm sure you are aware that if I simply click and go to heritage.org, I'll come back loaded with facts to refute your "OECD" statistics. This has been done before on JREF many times IIRC.

:dl:

Well, at least you are honest.
 
That's the logical fallacy that we are discussing.

"The Federal Government can do this cheaper".
Your opinion is noted but your opinion does not make it a fallacy necessarily.

By the way......take a look at Japan's debt burden and see if you still want to hold that opinion regarding how great their system is.
Is that debt directly related to health care or are you just assuming it is health care related? Or can we say it is a general indictment of capitalism? I mean, why single out health care as the cause, maybe it is their embrace of capitalism that is the culprit? We can use the USA with our debt as corroborating evidence that the capitalist system does not work.

What about the other countries? Are their health care systems failing also? What is your defn of failure?
 
....
Is that debt directly related to health care or are you just assuming it is health care related? Or can we say it is a general indictment of capitalism? I mean, why single out health care as the cause, maybe it is their embrace of capitalism that is the culprit? We can use the USA with our debt as corroborating evidence that the capitalist system does not work.

What about the other countries? Are their health care systems failing also? What is your defn of failure?

Taking your eighteen questions(???) back to the central premise, we know that the main driver of the US future unfunded liability issue is currently healthcare. We know that expanding that program will expand those liabilities.

That's our system, our numbers, our people, our politicians. I don't like it and you don't like it. But that's the monster they have gone and created. Somehow you think it will get "better if it gets bigger". I think "feed the monster it then has more appetite and smells much worse".

It's fun to assert comparables to the nice socialist countries, isn't it? But let's look at some real comparables.

Suppose you went into a banker to borrow money for a home. You say "I can probably make the payments. My neighbors did".

The banker says "You show me your credit history, bud".

That's really all I've been doing here. I think that's one central point to the arguments of conservatives: The federal government we have has done poorly at certain things - let's not give them more of the jobs in those categories - it's our money, a lot of it, and we don't want to risk wasting it.
 
I heard on the radio today that a study showed that a 1% increase in each of the employers and employees contribution would set SS solvent for another 75 years.

Just so we are all clear on exactly what Lurker is claiming:

http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TRSUM/

Social Security could be brought into actuarial balance over the next 75 years with changes equivalent to an immediate 16 percent increase in the payroll tax (from a rate of 12.4 percent to 14.4 percent) or an immediate reduction in benefits of 13 percent or some combination of the two.

SS has been doing its job quite well for many years, longer than many other govt programs.

Has it? Then why has SS had to take a bigger and bigger bite from people's income over time? It started out at 2%. Right now it is over 7 times that. And now you are suggesting they take even more? When is enough enough? :D
 
Originally Posted by mhaze
That's the logical fallacy that we are discussing.

"The Federal Government can do this cheaper".

Your opinion is noted but your opinion does not make it a fallacy necessarily.

Then name something the government has shown it can do cheaper. :D
 
Taking your eighteen questions(???) back to the central premise, we know that the main driver of the US future unfunded liability issue is currently healthcare. We know that expanding that program will expand those liabilities.

That's our system, our numbers, our people, our politicians. I don't like it and you don't like it. But that's the monster they have gone and created. Somehow you think it will get "better if it gets bigger". I think "feed the monster it then has more appetite and smells much worse".
I seem to recall that a CBO estimate of the plan had it reducing cost after 10 years. I'll have to research for more info.

It's fun to assert comparables to the nice socialist countries, isn't it? But let's look at some real comparables.
Sure is! But I don't dismiss those comparisons without wanting to learn from them. Your attitude seems to be that you would rather ignore the data because it comes from a "socialist" country.

Suppose you went into a banker to borrow money for a home. You say "I can probably make the payments. My neighbors did".

The banker says "You show me your credit history, bud".

That's really all I've been doing here. I think that's one central point to the arguments of conservatives: The federal government we have has done poorly at certain things - let's not give them more of the jobs in those categories - it's our money, a lot of it, and we don't want to risk wasting it.

I can understand your reticence in this matter. I personally think the potential rewards are worth the potential risk but I am commonly accused of being a starry-eyed optimist.
 
Re:healthcare
All of europe, canada...you know those evil western nations.

You're comparing apples and oranges, joobz.

First, this is about whether the US government can do things cheaper, not some foreign government. Assuming that "all of europe, canada" actually do provide health care cheaper (and I'm not agreeing with that), how do you know that's not because their government and societal structure are different than ours?

For example, do they have the same number of lawyers per capita that we do? No, they have far fewer lawyers. There is about 1 per 265 Americans. But France only has 1 per 1400. Germany only 1 per 600. The UK only 1 per 400. And most of the difference in the numbers is in the categories of lawyers who sue doctors and hospitals when someone dies and they didn't order all those tests and procedures they order in America but don't order in other countries. And do you know how many lawyers there are in all of Japan ... of all kinds? There is only 1 for every 5800 people. So maybe the solution is to cap the per capita number of lawyers that is allowed in this country to the ratios in one of those UHC countries that you sooooo admire. You'd be amazed at how many fewer tests doctors would then order. But you democrats aren't prepared to do that, are you? Because those lawyers mostly vote democrat.

And there more structural differences between the US and other countries. Does the EU and canada have to deal with the same number of illegal aliens? No, they have far fewer illegals. Are they as generous with those illegals as we are ours? No, in some cases they provide them with no care whatsoever that isn't paid for up-front by the illegals themselves.

Do the doctors in these other countries make the same amount as doctors in the US? No, on average they make considerably less. If you artificially lower the income of doctors and not those of other professions, the more capable people are going to choose to enter those other occupations rather than medicine. And the quality of doctors will naturally go down. It's simple logic and human nature. So if you don't want the quality of our physicians to drop at the same time you force their salaries lower, you are going to have to cap the salaries of everyone else in the US?

If these things are what it takes to reduce the costs in healthcare in the US, then I just don't see the path to those lower costs without massive change in American pay scales, torte reform and preventing illegal immigration. But democrats aren't proposing any of those structural changes, are they? If fact, they seem dead set against them.

Second, do those european/canadian governments you admire provide the same healthcare that Americans as a rule enjoy? No. And you can't really say something is cheaper if you aren't comparing the price of apples to the price of apples. I'm sure you'll say the details don't matter because those other countries have longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality. But as has been pointed out repeatedly in thread after thread, those measures are heavily influenced by differences in reporting and factors that have nothing to do with health care quality. Remove those factors and their life expectancy and infant mortality rates are not as good as in the US. Look at the 5 year survival rates for cancer. They are considerably lower in many of those european UHC systems. A study by the Eurocare-4 working group, which appeared in Lancet Oncology, found (http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/09/give_me_liberty_or_give_me_hea.html ) "that the United States outperformed European countries in 5-year relative survival rates for all malignancies in men (66.3 versus 47.3) and women (62.9 versus 55.8)." So is it fair to directly compare costs between us and them when we apparently provide better care?

Third, the health care system in these foreign countries are not doing all that well in many cases. The French health care system is in crisis and ironically it's looking to the US for solutions (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124958049241511735.html ). France has recently imposed co-pays and has been cutting services (for example), all to try and control costs. The UK system is riddled with problems and they've been throwing money at them hand over fist. Which is why their annual percentage change in per capita health care costs is a full 1% greater than ours (http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/09/where_are_healt.html
). In fact, Ireland, Poland, Norway, Greece, Spain, the Czech Republic, The Netherlands (another UHC system touted as a model for us), and Belgium ... all countries with universal health care systems ... have health care cost growth rates of 9.0%, 7.8%, 7.6%, 7.1%, 6.8%, 6.5%, 6.0%, and 5.9%, respectively. All higher than the US rate.

Fourth, maybe the full cost of that "free" healthcare in europe and canada expresses itself in other ways. In reduced growth rates for their entire economy, for instance (i.e., less per capita GDP growth). In 2007, France's per capita GDP (PPP) was $31,200. Germany's was $31,900. But the US' was about $43,800. Obviously, we could easily afford the delta in health care costs between us and them, and it might very well be that the delta in GDPs is reflective of a difference in economic philosophy between those countries willing to adopt universal (socialized) health care (like France and Germany) and those who've maintained a more private (i.e., free market) health care system. In short, had we adopted the same socialist economic philosophy that the French and Germans have had for some time, our GDP might very well now be similar to theirs, in which case we wouldn't now be enjoying the EXTRA $9000 we get to spend every year in the US even after paying for our higher health care costs.

Fifth, per capita GDP (PPP) growth in the US during the period 1999 to 2008 was slightly higher in the US than in France and Germany. In that timeframe, it averaged 1.6% in the US versus 1.5% in France and Germany. And, whatever growth rate there is acts on a larger base in the US than in France or Germany. Thus, if that 1.6% percentage was the case in 2007, the US per capita GDP would grow by $700 in 2008. The per capita GDP of France, however, would grow by only $468 and the per capita GDP of Germany would grow by $479. Subtracting the rise in cost of health care from those figure, in 2008 an American would have an extra $277 in excess GDP to spend on other things, a Frenchman would have an extra $270 in excess GDP, and a German would have an extra $325. Which means that for all intents and purposes, the disparity in the GDP between us and those two countries is remaining essentially constant. Perhaps because we didn't adopt the same socialist economic philosophy as the French and Germans. And the comparison between US GDP and GDP growth rates is even worse (for you) if one looks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(real)_growth_rate
) at the UK, Belgium, Portugal, Sweden, Italy, Denmark, Ireland and Canada. Those countries might be paying a stiff price for their more socialist attitudes that make UHC acceptable.

Like I said, joobz, apple and oranges. And I didn't even list all of the differences you simply ignore in your comparison. :D

So why don't you try to find something that the US government has proven itself able to do cheaper than the private sector in the US. tick tick tick.
 
You're comparing apples and oranges, joobz.
Do you have an example of a laissez faire health care system that is cheaper and better than those countries?

I'm waiting....


ETA:
many of your "issues" listed about the US system are a direct result of free market forces... kind of a bummer eh?
 
Last edited:

Man, I am scratching my head about that one. TVA is much closer to Fannie May, being a separate corporation set up by the federal government, than being something directly operated by the feds.

Tell ya what - when you set up your (fantasy) Federal One Size Fits ALL Medical Plan after the TVA model, you are going to give the employees of the company benefits like the TVA, right?

http://www.tva.gov/employment/benefits.htm

I'm sure you would understand that they wouldn't want (any more than the TVA) that, ahhh, third rate plan that's being push on the American people against their will. And you'd be sure to include, like the TVA, funded pension plans and 401ks, too, right?
 
Man, I am scratching my head about that one. TVA is much closer to Fannie May, being a separate corporation set up by the federal government, than being something directly operated by the feds.

Hey, BaC asked and I provided.

TVA is federally owned and was conceived by the federal government. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out why it does not satisfy BaC's query. It provides a commodity CHEAPER than the national average. He wanted an example of that so I provided an example.

The rest of your post has been ignored as it has no relevence to what BaC asked for which I provided.
 
Mhaze, in case you are insinuating that TVA is pretty distinct from the FEd then I suggest you read this: http://www.tva.gov/finance/governance/congressional.htm

Congressional Oversight
The U.S. Congress provides formal oversight of TVA through two committees: the Environment and Public Works Committee of the Senate and the Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment of the House of Representatives’ Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

The Environment and Public Works Committee has jurisdiction over matters such as new federal building construction, the interstate highway system, flood control and navigation projects, air and water pollution control, rural and community economic development, natural disaster relief, endangered species, fish and wildlife refuges, and the regulation of nonmilitary nuclear power.

The Subcommittee on Water Resources and Environment has jurisdiction over matters relating to water resources development, conservation, and management, water pollution control, water infrastructure, and hazardous waste cleanup.

TVA routinely submits budget information to the Office of Management and Budget, and TVA’s budget is included in the consolidated budget of the U.S. government. Additionally, TVA’s financial results are included in the federal government’s financial statements, which are coordinated with the U.S. Treasury and are audited by the General Accounting Office, the audit, investigative, and evaluation arm of Congress.

TVA is subject to the Government Performance and Results Act, which requires that a strategic plan and annual performance reports be submitted to Congress. TVA also submits quarterly operational reports to Congress. In addition, TVA’s Inspector General, who is appointed by the President, submits a semiannual report to Congress describing the results of audits and investigations involving TVA that are conducted by his office.
 
Originally Posted by BeAChooser
Then name something the government has shown it can do cheaper.

http://www.tva.gov/abouttva/keyfacts.htm#ratescompare

How do TVA’s rates compare with those of other power companies?

TVA electricity costs less than most electricity produced around the nation. For residents in the TVA region, the average cost of one kilowatt-hour is 6.4 cents, while the national average is 8.5 cents.

LOL!

First of all, for more than 60 years, Congress appropriated funds to cover the TVA's losses. It wasn't until 1999 that it was asked to stand on it's own without such subsidies. But even now it is still subsidized. Do you know that the TVA pays no federal, state or local taxes, which it's competitors must pay (http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/13/valley-of-the-dams )?

Second, I'm curious how they arrived at those "rates" given that many of the dams and power plants that produce the energy for TVA were built at taxpayer expense. Can you prove to us that the cost of those items has been factored into what TVA charges and not buried in some other line of the massive Federal budget? Are they just getting a free ride on those costs?

Third, fossil fuel plants produce about 60% of TVA’s power, nuclear power produces about 30%, and hydropower produces 10%. Is the mix of power production in the rest of the industry the same? Perhaps this gives TVA some advantage the others can do nothing about? We need to make sure we are comparing apples to apples. Right?

Fourth, what about debt? Do you know that TVA has over $25 billion dollars in long term debt … amongst the highest in the industry? Yet it enjoys a AAA rating which means it can borrow money quite cheaply. Why? Because it's tied to the government and lenders believe the government will stand behind that debt if all else fails. The head of the TVA even boasted about this in the late 90s. Doesn't this give it an unfair advantage over the private sector portion of the industry? Are you sure you are comparing apples to apples? Do you know that the U.S. Treasury carries TVA debt as gross Federal debt? Lenders do.

And let's see what else we can find. Oh yeah:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority

On December 22 2008, the Kingston Fossil Plant coal fly ash slurry spill spilled over 1 billion gallons of coal ash into tributaries of the Tennessee River near Kingston, Tennessee. The Kentucky Sierra Club called the disaster the "worst environmental disaster since Chernobyl"

Wonder how that's going to affect the bottom line? Wonder who is really going to pay for that mess? Customers … or the taxpayer?

What other advantages does the TVA enjoy. Well, the TVA is apparently (http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/13/valley-of-the-dams ) exempt from "137 federal laws, such as workplace safety and hydroelectric licensing. The TVA can set electricity rates without oversight by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission that has jurisdiction over private utilities. The Securities and Exchange Commission has limited jurisdiction for oversight of the TVA. The Securities and Exchange Commission has limited jurisdiction for oversight of the TVA. The TVA is the biggest New Deal monopoly, but is exempt from federal antitrust laws. It is exempt from many federal environmental regulations, as well as from hundreds more state laws and regulations. When the TVA wants more assets, it doesn't have to haggle, because unlike private businesses, it has the power of eminent domain." Those sound like some mighty big advantages that this government entity has over private competitors. Perhaps they explain the lower TVA energy prices.

But seriously, I really don't want to denigrate the TVA too much. Afterall, engineers, not lawyers, built the portions that actually do produce the power. :D
 
Thanks, BaC, for your predictable reply. Some points:

1. You asked for an example of the govt providing something cheaper than private industry. I looked for present day prices, not what happened years ago.

2. (From my previous link had you bothered to read it) Does TVA pay taxes?
TVA makes tax-equivalent payments annually to state and local governments in eight states. In 2009 those payments totaled more than $505 million. They are based on power sales revenue in the previous year and property owned by TVA in each state. Such payments make TVA one of the largest “taxpayers” in Tennessee and Alabama. In addition to the seven states and many counties in the Tennessee Valley region, the state of Illinois and two of its counties receive payments for coal reserves TVA owns there.

3. Who cares what the mix is? The private electricity producers will have mixes as well and produce from the cheapest they can.

I can go on addressing your concerns about the comparison (some of which are valid) but the bottom line remains:

TVA Price: $0.064/kWhr
Private Price: $0.085/kWhr


That makes TVA cheaper than the private companies. Some of your concerns may raise the effective price but I doubt it would be that much.
 
Thanks, BaC, for your predictable reply.

Thanks for yours. :D

TVA makes tax-equivalent payments

LOL! Again, the TVA pays no federal income taxes and (I didn't mention this) is exempt for property taxes. As for those tax-equivalent payments, under the TVA Act, it must return 5% of it's revenues to state and local governments in its territory. So what percentage do it's competitor's pay? According to this,

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/prim2/figure1.html

about 11%. Seems like the TVA is getting a nice competitive advantage.

And here's another nice benefit that the TVA has over private sector competitors. You know that cap and trade legislation that democrats are trying to ram through Congress against the wishes of most Americans? It gives 50% of the TVA system an exemption from the renewable electricity standard requiring that utilities provide 12-15% renewable energy and 5-8% energy efficiency by 2020. Utilities with annual electricity sales of more than 5 MWh will be required to meet this standard. But not the TVA. :D
 
So it sounds like we'd need a net accounting of historical subsidies as current debt, plus a consideration of the 11% vs. 5% advantage, to get a crude first cut at comparable costs.

By the logic of Lurker, Government Motors(GM) can do things cheaper than private industry - they just need to zero out senior bondholders' debt.

Which they did.

Seriously, do we know from the per kwh price whether the delivered product is cheaper? The question here is whether this is representative of all costs, or whether some are in other cost streams. Several examples of the latter have been cited...
 
I can go on addressing your concerns about the comparison (some of which are valid) but the bottom line remains:

TVA Price: $0.064/kWhr
Private Price: $0.085/kWhr

When you say "Private Price", you're talking about the national average.
Energy prices throughout the south and the midwest are significantly cheaper than they are in the northeast and southwest. In order to establish that the TVA price is cheaper as a government program than as a private program, that's the wrong metric.
If we compared TN's energy price to, say, West Virginia's, we'd suddenly find the TVA to be completely deficient. Of course, that's unfair too because WV is where all the coal is.
 
Last edited:

Back
Top Bottom