Throwing a large rock through a window would have created a lot of noise. Even a sound sleeper would have been awakened. A burglar might do so just to verify that nobody is home. If lights turn on after the window is broken, the burglar just sneaks away into the dark.
The most likely scenario is Rudy Guede breaking the window and climbing into the cottage while it was empty and Meredith coming home shortly afterwards.
I could accept this explanation...Except for 1 thing...1 tinsy bit of logic here:
Ok, so we're expected to believe that Guede is a "professional" burglar, given the attention to his priors. I'll allow that this is possible, even likely. Then we're expected to believe that he broke into this house through the hardest window to access. Believable, but not quite so likely. We're expected to believe that he broke into Filomena's room where he left no evidence of his being there (other than a broken window) and yet managed to leave evidence of his being in other parts of the house.
Still believable, but now we're starting to tip the scales into the unbelievable due to the number of coincidences.
Ok, so let's continue.
So he breaks into Filomena's room, rifles through her belongings, and yet steals nothing. Not much of a professional burglar, but ok. He then decides, in the middle of burglarizing this house, that he has to use the facilities. Now, we're expected to believe that rather than leave the house with whatever valuables he's found (none, remember), and find a safe place to do his business, he, a professional burglar, uses the bathroom in the cottage.
Now we're just getting way past believable.
Then we're expected to believe that Meredith came home just as Rudy was finishing his business. That rather than simply try to sneak out of the cottage/run away, Rudy decides to attack, rape, and kill Meredith.
I can understand that he would be reluctant to take the laptop after a murder. However, we are expected to believe that he would take 2 cell phones that could be traced back to the murdered girl far more easily than a laptop, as well as her credit/debit card(s). That just doesn't make any sense at all. Now we are so far into the coincidences and back-stepping that the logic-gymnastics required are worthy of a Gold medal (even if they are underage - *cough*china*cough*).
Look, people, the logic-nastics that are required to believe Guede acted alone and this was a mere burglary turned homicide are simply astounding. And sure, bits here and there could be believed to point to this - but when we add the sum of those bits together, it's just not a believable story any longer.
Given the dubious nature of this string of coincidences, coupled with the forensics on the body, we lean very strongly to multiple assailants. We've determined Guede was one, we're looking for at least 1 more - if not 2 and that requires that this was not merely a burglary gone wrong.
So we move on to the rest of what evidence has been collected.
First and foremost, we look to those who had easy access to the cottage and find that out of everyone with access, Amanda and Raf have no solid, credible alibi for that particular evening. In fact, they even acted differently than normal that night. That in, and of, itself is not evidence against them - but it sure doesn't help.
Then we find Amanda's DNA mixed in with Meredith's blood. Again, not 100% proof of Amanda's guilt - but tied together with the lack of an alibi, it really starts to look bad.
Then we get into Amanda's "bad memories", her obfuscation regarding Lumumba, the footprint in Filomena's room, the footprint in the bathroom that implicates Raf (who was her alibi for the night), Raf's DNA on the bra clasp, Raf's admission that Meredith had contact with the suspected murder weapon with a made-up story to explain it, etc.
That's about as unlucky a set of coincidences as could occur to put two innocent kids behind bars, I must say.
