UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Nobody is disputing that there were possibly AP present.

However, the random and fleeting nature of the contacts present on the radar screen indicates they were probably due to AP. In all of this, nobody ever saw one of these radar contacts for very long and nobody saw these contacts actually travel a complete path (i.e. come in off the edge of the radar screen, move towards the aircraft, and then leave).
 
people like me will continue to argue that UFOs must be taken seriously by the scientific community. I would have thought that UFO debunkers would welcome a call for scientific investigation...

Jref forum =/= Scientific community.
Besides, you're not interested in scientific research into UFO's. You just like the attention. That's why you post here rather than focus on getting a Phd and do the research yourself.
 
“BUT I ASSUME HIS PAPER…”!???? Now I CAN call you a hypocrite directly!

Nonsense. He wrote papers for several journals including "applied optics". Are you implying that this paper (which covers several pages) is going to be less informative than 20 seconds on a televison program? I think you need to stop exaggerating again.

“Let me know when YOU have read Dr Ireland’s paper! LOL.

But you are the scientist. I thought you were the one who did research before proclaiming a conclusion. It seems like the only things you read is Dr. Maccabee and that is the final solution to you. You are not interested in any other opinions. I guess science and research is not your strong point.

This is mere unfounded assertion. You provide no quotes or figures to support your assertions and thus we are entitled to dismiss them as having NO supporting evidence (especially as has already been demonstrated here.

I am only reporting what the program stated. I did not state that this was the case. If Dr. M has decided he has found more "tie-ups" since then, more power to him. From what you presented, I don't see as many as five that can be definitive in any way.

This is misrepresentation.

Are you stating that Startup lied about this event in front of the cameara? Tell me what did this little event indicate? That the UFO was invisible or that it was probably AP. The plane performed this looping maneuver twice with the same result.

NOT ON DUTY at the time…!? So HOW pray tell could he know precisely what the radar showed on the night? This is mere speculation!

What the program was trying to demonstrate was that it was not unusual for AP returns to be seen and they did often appear just like aircaft returns. Apparently, you are not smart enough to figure this out.

First it must be noted that there were NO boats.

Are you actually stating that there were NO BOATS in the ocean at the time of this event? Can you demonstrate this to be true? Do you or Dr. M have all the information from all the ships and boats that were in that area that night? It is an astonishing statement to make.


What Dr Macebee forgets to mention here is that the radar targets near the coast ALSO had visual confirmation!

Apparently not very good visiual confirmation. Seeing a light in the same general direction as a radar blip is not true "visual confirmation" is it? I would think a real scientist would understand this. You keep presenting evidence that your "scientific credentials" are nothing but a bunch of a bunk.

This is a gross overgeneralisation of the case by both Klass and Astrophotographer. CLEARLY there were UFOs observed by the witnesses at the same time as radar had them and the cameraman filmed them. See my post here for a summary

First of all, the film had no timer on it so we don't know when the lights were filmed and compared to which radar contacts. It is hard to determine. We can "guess" at what each contact was and the one contact as they left Christchurch can be identified. However, that is about it. Second, as I have stated before, seeing a light in the same general direction as a random blip is not true "visual confirmation". Any real scientist would recognize this.


Ah… “there is no proof that aliens were involved”. That’s the bottom line now isn’t it. Somehow there has to be “proof” that aliens were involved. We must now conveniently forget the fact that it is no longer possible to come up with mundane explanations that fit the evidence… now you want direct proof of aliens!

This is an issue about probabilities. It is more probable that these contacts were due to AP than due to something more exotic. AP returns were quite common during the weeks surrounding the events and all the radar operators were aware of it. When a pilot is out "looking for UFOs" as was the case here, and asks if they have any radar contacts, the ATC is going to give them any returns they had.

You did not answer my question. IS THIS YOUR NEW BEST CASE?
 
Rramjet said:
people like me will continue to argue that UFOs must be taken seriously by the scientific community. I would have thought that UFO debunkers would welcome a call for scientific investigation...

What do you imagine the outcome of such an investigation might be? You believe that astrophysicists and aerospace engineers examining the Trent photos, for example, are going to declare that indeed, aliens are visiting us?

There is no way to demonstrate that a disk-shaped object was not either tossed in the air and photographed, or suspended from wires and swung out before being photographed.

By insisting that such things cannot be "mundane", you're engaging in fantasy, not science. No legitimate and accredited scientist would come to such absurd conclusions; hence, no need and no chance for an investigation.
 
So all in all, while some of the coastal targets may have been AP, the DST (at the very least) certainly was not. So Dr Maccabee in his analysis has most definitely “removed” (at the very least) your “most probable” mundane targets and has also refuted the “mundane” claims of Klass, Sheaffer and Ireland. What then are we left with? Of course we are left with NO mundane explanation at all!

You mean, no mundane explanation that you or Dr. Mac can think of. This is nonsense because scientists from the Physics and Engineering lab (Dr. Ireland being one) felt the explanations of AP were adequate. The only people that were not satisified were the UFO proponents. That is because it was big news. Dr. M placed his stamp of approval on it and, based on his previous MO, is not going to alter his opinon no matter what evidence is presented. BTW, AP does not happen just along the coastline.

Finally, I don’t propose “alien” here, I propose RESEARCH! …and are you seriously contending that scientific research does (and will) lead us nowhere?

And the scientists from the Physics and Engineering lab of New Zealand did research the event. Dr. Ireland's articles on the subject were the results of that research. Just because you and Dr. M don't like the answer does not make it wrong.

As for research, this case can not be researched any more than it already has. It indicates a likely source of radar contacts being AP and lights of various objects. NO DISTINCT PHYSICAL CRAFT was filmed or seen. Everything revolved around some lights and random radar contacts.
 
At the very least Dr Maccabee is a peer-reviewed, published author in mainstream scientific journals. He has a string of qualifications and has successfully made a career in hard science. Can you say the same? Envy does not become you Access Denied.

So is Dr. Ireland. He IS an expert on Atmospheric physics. You chose not to read anything he wrote. What does that say about your research?

Dr. M is an expert on optical physics. I don't consider him an expert on atmospheric physics. Sure, he is an intelligent man but is out of his field.
 

"UFO probably a squid fleet off New Zealand, pilot says"

A link


Squids? Can we have some fun with this, or what?

Paging Stray Cat.

The above link points to a short article (less that 300 words) in the Register-Guard, (Ore Wed, Jan, 3, 1979) titled “UFO probably a squid fleet off New Zealand, pilot says”

What the pilot actually said:

"However, some 106 miles east of Christchurch is a very large Japanese squid fleet” Carran said “The squid fleet is visual to the naked eye for 120 miles with the very, very powerful lights they use.”

“Whether or not the lights can reflect in clouds, I just don’t know because the conditions last night were absolutely first class,” Carran said.

“There was little or no cloud cover and visibility was magnificent. We watched Venus come up and change color and that sort of thing she has always done. But we have nothing else to offer I’m afraid,” Carran said."

The first point to note is that the pilot never actually stated what the title of the article says he does.

The second point is that Carran stated “conditions last night were absolutely first class” - as they were on the night of the UFO sightings - AND Carran had NO trouble identifying a Japanese squid fleet - as they are a relatively common sight in the region - so there is no reason to suppose the pilot of the Argosy would not have been able to identify a Japanese squid fleet in similar conditions!

The third point of immediate note is that a squid fleet does not turn on and off its lights - and if anyone has seen such a fleet (an awesomely unforgettable experience I can assure you!), they will know that they light up a very large surrounding area with intensely bright light …so much so that there is simply NO mistaking them for anything other than they what they are!

Dr Maccabee also list 19 reasons why a squid fleet is not a tenable explanation in “THE CASE OF THE FLYING SQUID BOAT”
(http://brumac.8k.com/NEW_ZEALAND/NZSB.html)

NOTE: This article now talks about the Northbound journey, whereas previously we have been talking about the Southbound leg.

NOTE: the following represent brief summaries of Dr Maccabee’s points and therefore leave out a great deal of detail and may suffer some loss of accuracy as a result. The reader SHOULD read the article for themselves to see how the points are explored in detail.

1) Experienced crew did not recognise the lights as squid boat lights in spite of 15 minutes continuous straight line observation

2) The air crew was aware that there were Japanese squid fleets fishing in NZ waters, so if the light resembled them in any way, that would have been the first thing they would have attributed the light to. They did not.

3) Ireland searched NZ govt. records and turned up NO evidence of a squid fleet in the area. Squid boats never fish alone (usually they “pair off”) so the single light UFOs are inexplicable under the SB hypothesis.

4) There WAS a squid fleet about 140 miles east of the South Island and one to the north west of the South island. The co-pilot DID note these lights and recognised them for what they were.

5) If there HAD been a squid boat in the area it would have been a strange coincidence to have only turned on its lights after the plane was well up into the air (all the other SBs had already been fishing for some time...)

6) The pilot had the definite impression that the light was at the same level as the plane

7) While visibility was “unlimited” there was a cloud layer. And the light was first seen as a glow through the cloud tops as the airplane climbed up to and through the layer.

8) When the crew first had a clear view of the UFO they thought at first they were looking at the full moon…until they realised that the moon had set in the west many hours before. A squid boat seen at a distance does not have such an angular size – despite the “brightness” of the surrounding ocean lit by its lights.

9) The crew and passengers had the clear impression that the light was “pacing” the plane. A distant light source CAN give this impression, but given the distance of the flight and the location of the squid fleets it would soon have become apparent that the plane was moving in relation to them, particularly if they had been located where Ireland and Andrews had them.

10) Analysis of the film compared with the know light output of squid boats meant that to produce the images seen, any SBs must have been within 40nm. Dr Maccabee states: “In other words, the image brightness data, coupled with known SB brightness, suggests a location within the 40 nm arc on Figure 1 and argues against the locations suggested by Philip J. Klass in correspondence with me (and published in his book, "UFOS THE PUBLIC DECEIVED"...which was aptly named, because he deceived the public).”

11) The shape of the images on the film rules out SBs

12) (Not sure about this point) After some detailed analysis Dr Maccebee states: “Thus, this brightness increase is at least qualitatively consistent with the SBH, but it is also consistent with any hypothesis in which the airplane got closer to the object as it flew along.”. I think it is actually making the point that for the brightness increase, the SB must have come within 12nm from the plane…and clearly there were no SBs that close.

13) There are 908 frames of continuous filming where the light displays a peculiar green light that protrudes from the side of the round image, which also changes in amplitude. This is definitely not consistent with lights from a SB.

14) The pilot turned the plane to put its nose toward the light …and found he could not do it! After 92 degrees of turn he gave up. This indicated that the “light” reacted to the plane so that it could not come toward it directly.

15) In a “free recall” interview after the event the co-pilot stated the position of the light after the failed attempt to turn toward it. The co-pilot had a good reference point by which to judge the location (the Le Bons Beacon on the Banks Peninsular). This location ruled out Klass’ positioning of the SB.

16) In the same interview the co-pilot stated he could also see the position of the squid fleet on the horizon. He stated that the SBs were a “brilliant white” whereas the “light” was “more orange”.

17) The co-pilot noted that the light “kept station” during the (left hand) turnand remained on the right side of the plane even after the turn. This would have been an extraordinary rate of speed for a SB!

18) Photos of SBs show reflections of the water. The light showed no such reflections.

19) There was a reflection on the water noted by the reporter, but this reflection was seen with a large gap between the light and the reflection as if a light was shining on the sea from high above.

This last point gave rise to the “Flying Squid Boat” comment!.
 
So I will continue to put forward the evidence and the research to support my contentions and I will argue, forcefully if need be, to support my case concerning UFOs. I am sorry if that upsets you, but unfortunately that cannot be a factor in preventing the evidence, the research and the arguments from being placed on the record in this forum.

And the evidence will always found to be less than impressive. You really need to raise your standards of evidence.
 

"UFO probably a squid fleet off New Zealand, pilot says"

A link


Squids? Can we have some fun with this, or what?

Paging Stray Cat.
Its the Zardaulu! I always suspected and here's proof!

Run to the hills!
Run for your lives!

So, Rramjet continues to show evidences of non-scientific methods, eh?

BT1 count one more on the droplets. Not a pilot or engineer. Just someone who flies twice a week on airliners and is quite used to small planes also.
 
"It seems?" You are guessing. Based on what Startup recalls in the NOVA program, it is more likely they were being reported all sorts of random contacts. Which of these contacts do you find the most compelling? Seeing a light at night at the same time and general direction somebody reports a radar contact is not what I would consider hard evidence, would you?
Oh boy… you really are a master of misdirection and misinformation. I am NOT guessing. We have the precise number of contacts the WATCC made with the plane and it is obvious from those contacts that the WATCC did NOT contact the plane with every single sweep of the radar! Only when significant changes of direction or reappearances after disappearances occurred.

More, the WATCC did NOT report “all sorts of random contacts”. In FACT they did NOT report all the alleged AP contacts near the coast at all to the plane - just the once when the pilots first contacted them when they stated they had seen them for over half an hour already – from that point on the WATCC reported ONLY the target NEAR the plane itself!

Then it was a case of the WATCC contacting the plane and the pilots confirming or not whether they had a visual at the WATCC’s cited location. THAT IS confirmatory evidence!

It is QUITE obvious from your comments that not only have you NOT read Ireland’s paper, but you have NOT read Dr Maccabee’s radar report either!

"BTW, Dr. M. interviewed the wellington ATC named Geoffrey Causer. According to Klass, Maccabee interviewed him and asked if they had ever seen erratic blips before. Causer's response was:

Yes, I have. I think if you'd check with most of the radar controllers at Wellington, we've all seen anamolous propagation, or unidentified returns from time to time. We haven't taken too much notice of them. It was only because of the interest shown by this particular flight and by preivous (UFO) sightings on the 21st of December, you know. The was a lot of interest shown. (Klass UFOs: the public deceived p.236)
So? Causer stated that they had seen unidentified targets before but they had paid little attention to them assuming anomalous propagation – until of course those APs turned out to have visual confirmation on the night in question! LOL. You REALLY like to twist things around don’t you. No wonder you think Klass a role model, you take after him in method very closely.
 
However, the random and fleeting nature of the contacts present on the radar screen indicates they were probably due to AP. In all of this, nobody ever saw one of these radar contacts for very long and nobody saw these contacts actually travel a complete path (i.e. come in off the edge of the radar screen, move towards the aircraft, and then leave).
You… ughhh… how … now you almost leave me speechless. This is outright misinformation from you. You have NO proof that things were NOT observed on radar – in fact all the evidence (of the WATCC contacts with the plane) suggest precisely those things WERE observed…and sometimes NOT just fleetingly - perhaps if you had actually READ Dr Maccabee’s radar report you would have the information you need to make an informed comment next time.
 
Then it was a case of the WATCC contacting the plane and the pilots confirming or not whether they had a visual at the WATCC’s cited location. THAT IS confirmatory evidence!

The bolded part is NOT confirmation, so it's obviously a false claim.

Also, the ratio between confirmed and unconfirmed would be what? One number will do, or a simple "I don't know".
 
You… ughhh… how … now you almost leave me speechless. This is outright misinformation from you. You have NO proof that things were NOT observed on radar – in fact all the evidence (of the WATCC contacts with the plane) suggest precisely those things WERE observed…and sometimes NOT just fleetingly - perhaps if you had actually READ Dr Maccabee’s radar report you would have the information you need to make an informed comment next time.
If you can see a Squid Fleet from 120 miles, and the people on the plane saw some ambiguous lights in a black sky, how do they know that the lights are not 120 miles away and the radar returns are AP?

Do you not see that the whole set up is a form of confirmation bias?
Only counting the hits and forgetting about the misses.
 
We have the precise number of contacts the WATCC made with the plane

Good, that's a starting point. And that number would be...?

and it is obvious from those contacts that the WATCC did NOT contact the plane with every single sweep of the radar! Only when significant changes of direction or reappearances after disappearances occurred.

You're now guessing.

More, the WATCC did NOT report “all sorts of random contacts”. In FACT they did NOT report all the alleged AP contacts near the coast at all to the plane - just the once when the pilots first contacted them when they stated they had seen them for over half an hour already – from that point on the WATCC reported ONLY the target NEAR the plane itself!

So we're down to one (1) visual contact that roughly coincides with a radar contact?

you have NOT read Dr Maccabee’s radar report either!

There is no "radar report" to be read. Or do you mean Dr M's wordy description of different things that happened during this even?
 
Nonsense. He wrote papers for several journals including "applied optics". Are you implying that this paper (which covers several pages) is going to be less informative than 20 seconds on a televison program? I think you need to stop exaggerating again.
YOU “chastised” ME for not having read Ireland’s paper. Then in reference to that SAME paper you indicated that you ALSO had not read it. I was merely pointing out that it was hypocritical of you to call me out for not having read something when CLEARLY you had not read it either!

But you are the scientist. I thought you were the one who did research before proclaiming a conclusion. It seems like the only things you read is Dr. Maccabee and that is the final solution to you. You are not interested in any other opinions. I guess science and research is not your strong point.
Ireland’s paper is available only on a “pay per article” option from the journal in question – and that is US $35! I bet you did not even know THAT much Mr researcher. I decided that given Dr Maccabees extensive refutation of that article and my current financial situation, I simply could not afford it. If however YOU can afford it, WHY have YOU not purchased it?

I am only reporting what the program stated. I did not state that this was the case. If Dr. M has decided he has found more "tie-ups" since then, more power to him. From what you presented, I don't see as many as five that can be definitive in any way.
But it was NOT the number of “tie ups” that was your main point! It was that the reporter stated that there were many more than there actually was. It was THIS that you provided NO evidence for (in fact you are probably right – but I am tired of you merely stating ostensibly unfounded assertions without doing ANY research to support them with evidence!). There is good reason for the reporter to have assumed there were more visual confirmations of the radar targets than there actually were - IF he in fact DID - but if you had read Dr Maccabees report you SHOULD have known this already.

Are you stating that Startup lied about this event in front of the cameara? Tell me what did this little event indicate? That the UFO was invisible or that it was probably AP. The plane performed this looping maneuver twice with the same result.
No, YOU are the one talking “lies” just as YOU were the one making derogatory comments in a similar fashion about the Trents earlier. You obviously have not learned your lesson.

Besides I have already explained that just because the pilots could not see the UFO at a particular time, does NOT mean it was not there. Given that when it WAS observed, it was blinking on and off, it could easily have gone “off” and not been seen, just as sometimes it was “on” and WAS seen.

What the program was trying to demonstrate was that it was not unusual for AP returns to be seen and they did often appear just like aircaft returns. Apparently, you are not smart enough to figure this out.
Oooo… personal abuse now… not satisfied with passing derogatory comments about the witnesses you now turn that focus on me. LOL.

…but when those radar returns have visual confirmation…which they DID and were filmed… what then Astrophotographer? What then?

Are you actually stating that there were NO BOATS in the ocean at the time of this event? Can you demonstrate this to be true? Do you or Dr. M have all the information from all the ships and boats that were in that area that night? It is an astonishing statement to make.
Perhaps I overstated the case in the heat of the moment. There were NO boats identified in the area.

Apparently not very good visiual confirmation. Seeing a light in the same general direction as a radar blip is not true "visual confirmation" is it? I would think a real scientist would understand this. You keep presenting evidence that your "scientific credentials" are nothing but a bunch of a bunk.
I have qualified my statement with an explanation that while it was not possible to directly link the radar targets with the visual sightings, the fact that the visual sightings occurred in the same area as the radar targets and at the same time is at least suggestive of a likely conjunction.

First of all, the film had no timer on it so we don't know when the lights were filmed and compared to which radar contacts. It is hard to determine. We can "guess" at what each contact was and the one contact as they left Christchurch can be identified. However, that is about it. Second, as I have stated before, seeing a light in the same general direction as a random blip is not true "visual confirmation". Any real scientist would recognize this.
We have at least ONE solid visual/radar/film conjunction (most probably two). We have at least five radar visuals.

This is an issue about probabilities. It is more probable that these contacts were due to AP than due to something more exotic. AP returns were quite common during the weeks surrounding the events and all the radar operators were aware of it. When a pilot is out "looking for UFOs" as was the case here, and asks if they have any radar contacts, the ATC is going to give them any returns they had.
When you have visual confirmation of a radar target, then that is evidence that the target is REAL. Something IS there at the location. THAT is something that cannot be disputed in this case, no matter how much you try to twist and turn and misdirect the argument.

The WATCC would report a radar contact, and the pilots would THEN confirm or not a visual contact. It was NOT (as you state in clear misdirection) the other way round!

You did not answer my question. IS THIS YOUR NEW BEST CASE?
I have answered this question on numerous occasions. That you either did not read or did not like my answer to you on those occasions is not my concern. That you KEEP asking the question even after I have answered it says something about your attitude here. IF you did not like my previous answers, then you should point out WHERE or what parts of those answers you did not like. Then I could reply rationally to you.

I have told you, there IS no “best case”. There is merely evidence and research. I consider this case a very good one to support my contentions about UFOs. You obviously have a different opinion and that is why we are arguing the merits of it. IF you CAN convince me that the case is not a good one – by presenting EVIDENCE to support you assertions - then I will change my mind, but so far, you have presented nothing that cannot be easily countered or shown to be implausible or false.
 
You mean, no mundane explanation that you or Dr. Mac can think of. This is nonsense because scientists from the Physics and Engineering lab (Dr. Ireland being one) felt the explanations of AP were adequate. The only people that were not satisified were the UFO proponents. That is because it was big news. Dr. M placed his stamp of approval on it and, based on his previous MO, is not going to alter his opinon no matter what evidence is presented. BTW, AP does not happen just along the coastline.

And the scientists from the Physics and Engineering lab of New Zealand did research the event. Dr. Ireland's articles on the subject were the results of that research. Just because you and Dr. M don't like the answer does not make it wrong.
It seems Dr Maccabee was taking advice on his radar analysis from David Atlas.

In order to investigate the possibility that atmospheric anomalies could explain the DST, I contacted David Atlas (1980), an expert in atmospheric effects on radar. He pointed out that typical "dot angels", i.e., echoes from birds, insects and clear air turbulence (CAT), probably could be detected by the Wellington radar, but he doubted that these could be detected at a distance as great as 80 nm. When told of the DST his immediate response was, "UFO." Then he suggested a closer look at the capabilities for detecting birds or flocks of birds at long distance, although the evidence that the DST persisted for at 4 radar rotations did bother him because that would seem to imply birds could fly as fast as the aircraft, an obvious impossibility.”
(http://brumac.8k.com/NEW_ZEALAND/RADARUFOS.doc)

Do you know who David Atlas is? I "Googled" him and found this:

” Dr. David Atlas is one of the founding fathers of radar meteorology. There is scarcely an area within the field that he has not significantly influenced.

After serving as one of the first U.S. Army Air Corps radar meteorologists during World War II, Dr. Atlas spent 18 years as the chief of the U.S. Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories' Weather Radar Branch in Bedford, Massachusetts, where he foresaw the importance of Doppler in weather radar and studied its use to measure winds. He was a professor of meteorology at the University of Chicago from 1966 to 1972, and he directed the Atmospheric Technology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at Boulder, Colorado from 1972 to 1976. His efforts at NCAR led to major advancements in weather radar use and paved the way for the National Weather Service and the FAA to use Doppler radar to measure severe weather. In 1977, Dr. Atlas became founding director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. There, he drove the development of space-based instruments for monitoring the earth's atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Since retiring in 1994, he continues his research at Goddard as a Distinguished Visiting Scientist.

Dr. Atlas is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Society, the U.K. Royal Meteorological Society, and the American Meteorological Society (AMS), serving as AMS president in 1975. His honors include the Royal Meteorological Society's Symons Gold Medal. A member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Dr. Atlas holds 22 patents and has published more than 260 papers.”
(http://www.ieeec.com/portal/pages/about/awards/bios/2004picard.html)

Ireland HAS been refuted in his analysis by Dr Maccabee who had been receiving advice on his analysis from none other that David Atlas!

As for research, this case can not be researched any more than it already has. It indicates a likely source of radar contacts being AP and lights of various objects. NO DISTINCT PHYSICAL CRAFT was filmed or seen. Everything revolved around some lights and random radar contacts.
Ooo… you really know how to attempt misdirection. RADAR/VISUAL/FILM CONJUNCTION Astrophotogrpaher. THAT is what we HAVE in this case. No matter HOW had you try, THOSE facts will stand.
 
If you can see a Squid Fleet from 120 miles, and the people on the plane saw some ambiguous lights in a black sky, how do they know that the lights are not 120 miles away and the radar returns are AP?

Do you not see that the whole set up is a form of confirmation bias?
Only counting the hits and forgetting about the misses.

Because the squid boats WERE identified for what they were. There were also a number of occasions when the WATCC reported a radar contact at a specific position and the pilots noted a visual confirmation of a target at that position.

I think the "confirmation bias" is actually working against YOU here. A "hit" is a "hit". It is positive confirmation that an object exists at the point the radar indicated it should. Whatever else might be occurring, you cannot deny this point. We also have at least one confirmed radar/visual/film concurrence in this case. Do you simply dismiss that? If so, on what grounds?
 
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