AE 911 Truth at Full Juggernaut Strength (1,000)

[Alferd_Packer]

How long until everyone in the world is a member of my group?

based on totady world population or do we have to factor in the population growth rate?

 

[metamars]

In other words, you have no proof that the 35 million doesn't contain any engineers as your sloppily worded post originally implied.

Got it, thanks.

Not only do I have "no proof" that absolutely no engineers were in the random samples employed in those polls, I expect that there would have been engineers in those samples, if the total sample size was in the hundreds, since the probability of engineers in the sample is in the neighborhood of 1.5 million / 300 million, or .5%. Like I said, you're nit-picking. That's all you got, because your comment was so dumb.

Better than you, twoof.

AE911T's growth over 5 years at 20% per year compounded annually (I'm being really generous here):

1000 x .20 = 200
1200 x .20 = 240
1440 x .20 = 288
1728 x .20 = 345.6
2073.6 x .20 = 414.72

ASCE's growth over 5 years at half of what I gave AE911T, also compounded annually:

147,000 x .1 = 14,700
161,700 x .1 = 16,170
177,870 x .1 = 17,787
195,657 x .1 = 19,565.7
215,222.7 x .1 = 21,522.27

And now here's AE911Ts growth subtracted from ASCE's:

14,700 - 200 = 14,500
16,170 - 240 = 15,930
17,787 - 288 = 17,507
19,565.7 - 345.6 = 19,220.1
21,522.27 - 414.72 = 21,107.55

Each year, ASCE's growth and AE911Ts gets bigger and bigger.

So yeah... AE911T will never grow as big as ASCE. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Especially since you don't seem to be able to figure these things out yourself.

You still don't get it, do you? (Nice switcheroo from all engineers to ASCE, btw. Say, why'd you do that?) If you had any substantial mathematical acumen, I'd tell you that your problem may be that you don't understand that you're not comparing linear functions. Since you seem awfully naive, mathematically, I'll just tell you that you're out of your element.

Here's your last chance to get it. I don't expect you to admit your error, but at least you can give it up and stop embarassing yourself.

You can see how wrong you are by picking a larger number of years.


I'll pick 40 years.

147,000 * (1.1)^40 = 6,653,110
1,000 * (1.2)^40 = 1,469,771


Not quite, but notice that the difference in membership numbers is now in the miilions, advantage ASCE. specifically, 5,183,339.

So, take 55 years.


147,000 * (1.1)^55 = 27,791,693
1,000 * (1.2)^55 = 22,644,802


Nope, bad guess. Note, though, that the difference has now decreased to 5,146,891. This should tell you immediately that there's something wrong in how you're thinking about this.

I'll take 100 years.


147,000 * (1.1)^100 = 2,025,750,013
1,000 * (1.2)^100 = 82,817,974,522



Seriously, let the spouse make the investment decisions for your household. And before you embarrass yourself further, do yourself a favor and PM a fellow debunker who understands how compound interest works, OK?

 

[Justin39640]

Not only do I have "no proof" that absolutely no engineers were in the random samples employed in those polls, I expect that there would have been engineers in those samples, if the total sample size was in the hundreds, since the probability of engineers in the sample is in the neighborhood of 1.5 million / 300 million, or .5%. Like I said, you're nit-picking. That's all you got, because your comment was so dumb.




You still don't get it, do you? (Nice switcheroo from all engineers to ASCE, btw. Say, why'd you do that?) If you had any substantial mathematical acumen, I'd tell you that your problem may be that you don't understand that you're not comparing linear functions. Since you seem awfully naive, mathematically, I'll just tell you that you're out of your element.

Here's your last chance to get it. I don't expect you to admit your error, but at least you can give it up and stop embarassing yourself.

You can see how wrong you are by picking a larger number of years.


I'll pick 40 years.

147,000 * (1.1)^40 = 6,653,110
1,000 * (1.2)^40 = 1,469,771


Not quite, but notice that the difference in membership numbers is now in the miilions, advantage ASCE. specifically, 5,183,339.

So, take 55 years.


147,000 * (1.1)^55 = 27,791,693
1,000 * (1.2)^55 = 22,644,802


Nope, bad guess. Note, though, that the difference has now decreased to 5,146,891. This should tell you immediately that there's something wrong in how you're thinking about this.

I'll take 100 years.


147,000 * (1.1)^100 = 2,025,750,013
1,000 * (1.2)^100 = 82,817,974,522



Seriously, let the spouse make the investment decisions for your household. And before you embarrass yourself further, do yourself a favor and PM a fellow debunker who understands how compound interest works, OK?

If AE911T is still around in 40 years, how good of a job did they do today?
Obviously it's not about investigations or anything of the sort. It's about making money.

 

[funk de fino]

I'll take 100 years.

Did you really just post that?

 

[W.D.Clinger]

I can see you're not very good at math. Perhaps W.D.Clinger will be good enough to explain to you why you're wrong. Or, you can go ask any banker or accountant "If I deposit $1,000 at 16% interest in one account, and $1,000,000 at 1% interest in another, will the first account ever exceed the second?" If you really want to have fun, you can solve for y (=years) where

((1,000)^1.16)^y = ((1,000,000)^1.01)^y

It might be a good idea to let your spouse handle the family finances...

This should be

(1,000) * (1.16)^y = (1,000,000) * (1.01)^y

AE911T's growth over 5 years at 20% per year compounded annually (I'm being really generous here):

Five years isn't long enough, because AE911T isn't growing all that fast.

So yeah... AE911T will never grow as big as ASCE. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. Especially since you don't seem to be able to figure these things out yourself.

You're almost certainly right that AE911T will never become as big as ASCE, but metamars wants us to consider the hypothetical situation in which the current growth rates continue exponentially into the indefinite future, disregarding all of the reasons that won't happen.

You can see how wrong you are by picking a larger number of years.

I'll pick 40 years.

147,000 * (1.1)^40 = 6,653,110
1,000 * (1.2)^40 = 1,469,771

Not quite, but notice that the difference in membership numbers is now in the miilions, advantage ASCE. specifically, 5,183,339.

So, take 55 years.

147,000 * (1.1)^55 = 27,791,693
1,000 * (1.2)^55 = 22,644,802

Nope, bad guess. Note, though, that the difference has now decreased to 5,146,891. This should tell you immediately that there's something wrong in how you're thinking about this.

I'll take 100 years.

147,000 * (1.1)^100 = 2,025,750,013
1,000 * (1.2)^100 = 82,817,974,522

Why'd you change the numbers?

With the original numbers (1000 members of AE911T growing by 16% annually, 1571900 engineers growing by 1% annually), the population of AE911T would exceed the number of engineers after 54 years. After 109 years, the population of AE911T would exceed the current human population of this planet. After 280 years, the population of AE911T would exceed the estimated number of stars in the known universe (about 10²¹, according to NASA). After 1195 years, the population of AE911T would exceed the estimated number of atoms in the universe (10⁸⁰).

These calculations eventually become silly, because they are hypothetical consequences of the assumption in boldface above. In reality, a prudent NWO would take steps to limit the AE911T population before it gets out of hand. Absent a prudent NWO, nature herself would accomplish the same end by more brutal means.

 

[Lenbrazil]

For those of us not up on obscure TV trivia who was the doctor on the Brady Bunch whose name appears as a PhD on the AE911T site? Are you sure it's not some one with the same name?

Also SoT is wrong and Metamars is right, the group is growing proportionally faster that the number of engineers as a whole, the former has increased about 20% in 2 - 3 years the latter at about 1% a year. That doesn't change the fact they still represent an infantesimally pathetic 1 in 10,000 US engineers

 

[Mr.Herbert]

For those of us not up on obscure TV trivia who was the doctor on the Brady Bunch whose name appears as a PhD on the AE911T site? Are you sure it's not some one with the same name?

"Is There a Doctor in the House" was an episode from season 1 of the Brady Bunch. One by one the Brady kids were sent home with the measles. Mike at work and Carol at home, both called their pediatricians.

Dr. Porter - Marion Ross
Dr. Cameron- Herbert Anderson

Cameron Porter PHD- imaginary person created by Mr. Herbert.

 

[Grizzly Bear]

Today, I have one member in my group. Next year, I convince some one else to join me. The following year, I convince two more.

Each year, my group has grown by 100%.

Now I stop taking data. And instead make wild, extravagant assumptions about how sustainable will be this growth rate.

How long until everyone in the world is a member of my group?

What are the odds that this is a group of people competent in math or statistics?

Interestingly a great analogy to the growth issue is assuming it's based on a 'fixed interest rate.' Except I'd point out that since the variables dictating who signs up, aren't set constants, the assumption is rendered moot..

 

[Telltale Tom]

So, you are a member of A&E911T? What architectural or engineering qualifications do you have?

You know the ae911truth is very clear that anyone can join.

Just because we don't have any support from licensed structural engineers doesn't mean that we are not a power for change.

We are only a thousand from around the world and we have at least 80 licensed structural/civil engineers. But we are growing and we have a leadership that is dedicated to change. We have the stamina to keep going and it seems to me the debunker movement is tired and finished. They have said everything they can say, while we can keep going.

 

[carlitos]

Yes, the debunkers had said everything they can say, like the truth about the day's events. While, the creative forces at ae911truth* can just keep making up new stuff. So they never run out of material. "Thermite" goes out of date? Go to "thermate." After that's done, it's "nanothermite." Then back to "thermate matches for conventional explosives." Very creative. Zero accomplishments but hey, what are you gonna do.

* that is, the 3 or 4 guys in this "movement" that actually do something - Jones, Gage, etc.

ETA - I noticed that you quoted a question, and typed a bunch of words that didn't answer orphia nay's question. Any reason why?

 

[Arus808]

You know the ae911truth is very clear that anyone can join.

and its quite apparent they do.

 

[tfk]

Interestingly a great analogy to the growth issue is assuming it's based on a 'fixed interest rate.' Except I'd point out that since the variables dictating who signs up, aren't set constants, the assumption is rendered moot..

Exactly. The assumption of constant annual percent growth is absurd.

One main reason is the example I gave. It is easy to generate large percentage changes in small numbers. It's much harder to do so in large numbers.

A bigger effect is that we have already passed "Peak Nutty Engineer", and are on the downslide. This was made obvious when he presented to (IIRC) 20,000 architects & engineers at the San Fran show this year...

... and managed to sign up TWO new suckers "less than first rate, competent architects".

Here, BTW, is the standing of AE911t, Pilots4twoof & Randi.org in internet traffic for the last 6 months.

The Truth Movement is about to extinguish.


Tom

 

[Thunder]

how is growing by .8% in 3 months a bad thing?

just askin'.

 

[Telltale Tom]

Exactly. The assumption of constant annual percent growth is absurd.

One main reason is the example I gave. It is easy to generate large percentage changes in small numbers. It's much harder to do so in large numbers.
A bigger effect is that we have already passed "Peak Nutty Engineer", and are on the downslide. This was made obvious when he presented to (IIRC) 20,000 architects & engineers at the San Fran show this year...

... and managed to sign up TWO new suckers "less than first rate, competent architects".

Here, BTW, is the standing of AE911t, Pilots4twoof & Randi.org in internet traffic for the last 6 months.
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=176&pictureid=2252[/qimg]
The Truth Movement is about to extinguish.
Tom

The AIA conference was in April not Nov and was for architects not architects and engineers. Apparently its not only 'truthers' that draw wrong conclusions from limited data.

 

[carlitos]

Telltale Tom, instead of quibbling over irrelevant details that won't ever change a single thing in the real world, would you care to take a stab at an alternate hypothesis to explain 9/11? We have a thread for that, right here.

ETA - vinnie / metamars, everyone else - You too if you are interested!

 

[tfk]

how is growing by .8% in 3 months a bad thing?

just askin'.

A tragic analogy...

A guy with a wife & 4 kids in Haiti used to have a home and a small savings account of $500 in the bank. While, thankfully, his family survived, his home is gone, the bank is gone & he's got $30 in his pocket. Digging thru the wreckage of what was once his home, he finds a quarter. Compared to a few minutes ago, his net worth over just went up by 0.8%.

The tears in his eyes are not celebratory because of his recent good fortune ...

0.8% improvement over an abysmal situation is still an abysmal situation.


Tom

 

[beachnut]

You know the ae911truth is very clear that anyone can join.

Just because we don't have any support from licensed structural engineers doesn't mean that we are not a power for change.

We are only a thousand from around the world and we have at least 80 licensed structural/civil engineers. But we are growing and we have a leadership that is dedicated to change. We have the stamina to keep going and it seems to me the debunker movement is tired and finished. They have said everything they can say, while we can keep going.

Yes with numbers like this it will be hard for the marines to keep you guys down.

I was looking at the impressive evidence you guys have it is amazing the ample evidence is flowing like rivers of molten steel under the WTC.

 

[metamars]

You still don't get it, do you?

Shorter version

 

[Sword_Of_Truth]

Metamars, if you were to recruit astronomers and astrophysicists into the Flat Earth Society, how many do you think you could get by the end of the century?

 

[W.D.Clinger]

Telltale Tom, instead of quibbling over irrelevant details that won't ever change a single thing in the real world, would you care to take a stab at an alternate hypothesis to explain 9/11?

How about an alternate hypothesis to explain Telltale Tom?

He's given us the most cogent commentary on AE911truth I can recall during my brief membership in this forum. It takes courage for a truther to speak so much truth here. Let's give him some slack.