Status of health-care reform negotiations?

[Thunder]

Does anyone know what they have agreed upon so far in the House-Senate negotiations?

will there at least be a non-profit co-op plan for Americans to buy into?

i want there to be some sort of non-corporate plan for us to buy into.

 

[shemp]

they have agreed to give us all the shaft

 

[Peephole]

Here's some developments:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/previewing_the_final_health-ca.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/house_and_senate_negotiators_c.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/the_senates_awful_free_rider_p.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/the_mostly_unchanged_excise_ta.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/did_the_unions_and_the_excise.html
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/01/the_health-care_reform_bill_co.html

 

[Beerina]

I suppose it depends on what happens in the Kennedy election (tomorrow?) If the Dems lose, they have 59 in the Senate, and all bets are off.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Actually, even if the Dems lose the MA seat, they can still get HCR through. Here are some ways...

If the Senate can vote on HCR before Brown (assuming he wins) gets certified & seated, then it's a done deal - I think this could very well happen because with the Dems controlling the whole state government of MA, they could easily stretch out the time to certify the election, either legitimately or by less-than-believable means. Another potential wrinkle is that the loser of the MA election could challenge the winner in court, which could put the election results in limbo and therefore allow the Senate vote to go through. My guess is that the second route (challenging the results in court) is the more likely path.

Another way is to simply have the House vote on the Senate version of the bill as it is currently written. A lot of liberals in the House would have to hold their noses to do it, as the Senate version is less liberal, but if push came to shove I think they would. Better, at least politically for them, to have that than nothing at all.

A third way, which I see as very unlikely though stranger things have happened, is to cut some kind of deal with a moderate Republican in the Senate (probably Olympia Snowe) to provide the critical 60th vote. This would, I think, be an absolute last ditch effort, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

So HCR isn't dead if the Dems lose the MA seat, it'll just be a bit more tricky to get it through.

Btw, I heard on the radio today that Obama will be giving his State of the Union speech on Jan. 27th. This makes me think they'll be going with option 1 or 2 above so that he can say they got HCR done in his speech. He'll want to say "we got it done" so that he can move on and discuss other aspects of his agenda, because even us proponents for his HCR plan are starting to get sick of hearing about it all the time.

 

[Beerina]

I suppose it depends on what happens in the Kennedy election (tomorrow?) If the Dems lose, they have 59 in the Senate, and all bets are off.

Today's the day. I reiterate

Everything else is just hot air.

 

[Francesca R]

http://data.intrade.com/graphing/js...URL=https://www.intrade.com&contractId=693300


(contract closed at 77)
My bad, still trading, 68.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Pelosi was on the radio today stating that "we will get health care reform done soon" regardless of the outcome of the MA election. This tells me that she's already twisting a lot of arms in the House to have them vote for the Senate version of the bill. I think it's very likely that will happen perhaps later this week so that Obama can claim success on HCR next week during his SOU address.

 

[Peephole]

It's too bad, bill could still have improved a lot.

 

[David Wong]

Pelosi was on the radio today stating that "we will get health care reform done soon" regardless of the outcome of the MA election. This tells me that she's already twisting a lot of arms in the House to have them vote for the Senate version of the bill. I think it's very likely that will happen perhaps later this week so that Obama can claim success on HCR next week during his SOU address.

Well if I remember the narrow passage of the House version was due to a lot of Blue Dogs wanting a more conservative bill. That's what they have in the Senate version.

I bet the liberal defectors are outnumbered by the blue dogs who find the Senate version more palatable. Besides, it's that or start over.

 

[Peephole]

I don't think Blue Dogs care much about the details, they're concerned about electoral repercussions and won't vote for any bill, regardless of how strong or weak it is.

And I don't think there's that much opposition against the Senate bill by progressives, because they realize there's no other option. Or at least I hope they're smart enough to realize that. So, I wouldn't be surprised if Obama ends up signing the bill in a week or two.

 

[Malerin]

Health care's dead. It barely passed the house last time, and that was with the Stupak Amendment. Strip that away, throw in the loss in Mass and the general unpopularity of the bill, and there's no way the House will pass the Senate version.

 

[willhaven]

There's always the reconciliation process, or simply letting the republicans filibuster as long as they like and see what the electorate thinks of that.

Personally, I think they should cut out the good parts and pass them individually.

 

[Malerin]

There's always the reconciliation process, or simply letting the republicans filibuster as long as they like and see what the electorate thinks of that.

I think they would cheer them on.

Personally, I think they should cut out the good parts and pass them individually.

They might get a few "reforms" this way. But how do you implement something like no-discrimination-based-on-preexisting-conditions without a mandate? I have no love for insurance companies, but I don't see how they can function if they can't turn away unacceptable risks or charge them a much higher premium and there's no increase of healthy people in the "pool" (well, they can function- by raising everyone's premiums).

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

Health care's dead. It barely passed the house last time, and that was with the Stupak Amendment. Strip that away, throw in the loss in Mass and the general unpopularity of the bill, and there's no way the House will pass the Senate version.

Nah--I think the House Democrats are fully aware that politics is often the art of the possible.