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Amanda Knox guilty - all because of a cartwheel

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It is understandable, William Parcher. I think that this is a very good reflection of what real investigations and real world issues are actually like for those who are involved with them. As I know from my own work, there are no certainties most of the time.

Here it should be simple to know what the facts are, at least about the washing machine: so one would think. But what actually happens? Things are said; picked up and reported correctly or incorrectly; not picked up and not reported; people talk and memory becomes distorted; they are sure for the purposes of conversation: not sure for the purposes of giving evidence on oath. All sorts of sources of confusion.

My own understanding of the washing machine, for what it is worth, is this.

In October Knox said (on MySpace, I think) that they had got a new washing machine and that it was not working. She said Laura (one of the housemates) was dating a handyman and he was going to fix it. She did not mention it again until after the murder.

The police and/or Romanelli testified that the power light was on at 1:00 pm on Nov 2nd. Knox said that Kercher had put it on the previous evening, So the implication was Kercher had put it on and it had run, but she had not emptied it nor switched it off.

In court Romanelli said that the machine was "umido". There is dispute about what this means in the various reports: some say it means damp/wet: some say it means warm/damp/wet. I do not speak Italian and I do not know what it means.

There seems to be no doubt that Kercher's clothes were in the machine. There is doubt about whether these were clothes she had been wearing at her friend's house on the afternoon of Nov 1st or other clothes. There is doubt about whether some of Knox's clothes were mixed in (though there is no doubt the majority were Kercher's).

Knox said she never used the machine. She said she preferred to go to the laundrette. I believe she also said the machine was unreliable, which is why her October MySpace is important because there was no reason to suppose it did not work properly. Few people go to the launderette if there is a working machine in the house because frankly it is a pain: but of course some may.

The clothes did not show any blood or other useful forensic traces, so far as I am aware.

What we all have to accept is that some of this confusion for us is not confusion for the court: we do not have the transcripts of the testimony, we only have reports of what was said. But they heard the evidence and they had the opportunity to ask questions.

For example: we do not know if the clothes were the same as Kercher wore because the trousers she wore and which were in the machine have been variously described as her "torn jeans" and as her "boyfriend's jeans". But is this the same pair or a different pair? Since this might be quite important it is possible the question was asked and answered in court but did not make it to any of the reports we rely on. Journalists, no matter how conscientious, cannot give us this kind of detail: one focuses on one bit of the story and another on something else. If it is established these are one and the same pair then from the point of view of a report of the day's proceedings it might not occur to the journalist to make that plain: after all in a day's testimony they can only give what seems to them to be important. And that will also differ from one journalist to another

Similarly, Romanelli said "umido": the journalists I rely on are english speaking. Translation is very difficult to do well. I have a friend who is fluent in three languages and his english is better than mine, though not his native tongue: but he finds translation hard because there is no one-one correspondence. So humid in english is not the same as umido in Italian and I do not know whether it necessarily carries the idea of warmth. Some reporters translate it that way and some don't. But the jury and judge are Italian and so is Romanelli.They will know what the word carries in that language better than any translator no matter how good, and no matter how conscientious a journalist is, who is not a native speaker. It may be there was no discussion to clarify the word because Italians do not need to have that discussion.

Earlier in this thread some emphasised that we have to be aware that those who are in court are better placed to judge than we are: and this was criticised as over-reliance on authority or some such concept: but it isn't. It is a realistic appreciation of the limits of what we can know and what the judge and jury can know.

We can compare reports and we can glean a lot and so we should: but that gap will always remain.

The starting point for this thread was that there was a miscarriage of justice because there was no evidence on which to convict. I have done as much research as I reasonably can in the short time I have been involved in it. You can do that too.

For myself I am satisfied that there is enough evidence of various kinds to support this conviction: I did not start there but that is the conclusion I have reached. I think Knox and Sollecito would have been convicted in any court in the world: inquisitorial or adversarial: Italian or American or Scottish. You may differ: you may feel that every tiny detail must be beyond question and if it is not the case must fail: but in my limited experience with courts that is just never true. It is the whole body of the evidence that is judged: and any doubt must be "reasonable doubt": not fanciful or possible but "reasonable"

You may not think that has been met: the defence will of course try to persuade the appeal court it has not. And the prosecution will naturally oppose that.

At present I can see nothing which can overturn this conviction. Those who do not agree are relying on arcane arguments about DNA; but those who have been part of the case as it was heard are already aware of those issues. The challenge we have seen so far is theoretical, because those making it have not seen the evidence: some are perhaps pure scientists who are acting out of concern for misuse of their profession: some are business people with scientific qualifications, but a product or service to sell: some are perhaps crusaders with a bee in their bonnets. But the fact remains that so far they have not raised anything which has not already been considered in court.

Perhaps they will come up with something. That is for the appeal.
 
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Signal to noise ratios are not infinite

Compare the graphs. Meredith's peaks only, no noise in between them.

Fulcanelli,

The squiggles between the peaks give an indication of the amplitude of noise. Signal-to-noise is a quotient. If the noise were zero, the S/N ratios would be infinite, and the majority are below forty.

Chris
 
In court Romanelli said that the machine was "umido". There is dispute about what this means in the various reports: some say it means damp/wet: some say it means warm/damp/wet. I do not speak Italian and I do not know what it means.

Knox said she never used the machine. She said she preferred to go to the laundrette. I believe she also said the machine was unreliable, which is why her October MySpace is important because there was no reason to suppose it did not work properly. Few people go to the launderette if there is a working machine in the house because frankly it is a pain: but of course some may.

As the machine was a washer-dryer, and you've just pointed out that the clothes inside it were damp, I'd say that's pretty good evidence that it didn't work very well. Washer dryers tend not to dry clothes very well. Perhaps that's all Knox meant when she said it didn't work or was unreliable (or whatever words she actually used, which no-one has managed to quote).
 
As the machine was a washer-dryer, and you've just pointed out that the clothes inside it were damp, I'd say that's pretty good evidence that it didn't work very well. Washer dryers tend not to dry clothes very well. Perhaps that's all Knox meant when she said it didn't work or was unreliable (or whatever words she actually used, which no-one has managed to quote).

I do not know if it was a washer dryer. You may be right but knox certainly talked about using a dryer rack in the house: I will try to find that reference and maybe you can say where you found out it was a washer dryer?

This is what the Guardian reported of Romanelli's testimony on Feb 8th

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/08/kercher-trial-knox
 
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In Post #1087 Piktor posted a link to an email Amanda Knox wrote to friends and family on November 4, 2007 two days before her arrest in which she gives her explanation of the previous several days. Here is an excerpt:

"the next morning i woke up around 1030 and after grabbing my few things i left raffael's appartment and walked the five minute walk back to my house to once
again take a shower and grab a chane of clothes. i also needed to grab
a mop because after dinner raffael had spilled a lot of water on the
floor of his kitchen by accident and didnt have a mop to clean it up."

This probably an insignificant item, but I am curious as to what Raffael spilled that couldn't be cleaned up with a towel or sponge. The largest container I have in my kitchen is a 6 quart (5.7 liters) pot. In any case, unless a water pipe broke (which is not what she indicated) much of the water from an "accidental spill" would have evaporated by the next morning if any effort was given to cleaning up the spill the night before.
 
Guede's DNA was found on (or, more accurately, in) Meredith's body.

The point was that his DNA wasn't found on her body when we well know that it was found inside. So if Guede's DNA wasn't on her body, then why would a lack of Sollecito's necessarily confirm cross-contamination of the clasp?

Are you implying that Guede's DNA was cross-contaminated into Meredith's body (no disrespect to Meredith intended)?
 
In Post #1087 Piktor posted a link to an email Amanda Knox wrote to friends and family on November 4, 2007 two days before her arrest in which she gives her explanation of the previous several days. Here is an excerpt:

"the next morning i woke up around 1030 and after grabbing my few things i left raffael's appartment and walked the five minute walk back to my house to once
again take a shower and grab a chane of clothes. i also needed to grab
a mop because after dinner raffael had spilled a lot of water on the
floor of his kitchen by accident and didnt have a mop to clean it up."

This probably an insignificant item, but I am curious as to what Raffael spilled that couldn't be cleaned up with a towel or sponge. The largest container I have in my kitchen is a 6 quart (5.7 liters) pot. In any case, unless a water pipe broke (which is not what she indicated) much of the water from an "accidental spill" would have evaporated by the next morning if any effort was given to cleaning up the spill the night before.

Knox said at first that Sollecito had spilled water from making pasta. He said there was leak from under the sink. She later said that too. It seems there wa a leak under the sink because the joints had parted. It seems water leaked out each time the sink was emptied. When the police went to his flat there was a bucket under it and apparently it was full of water and the water was clean. That is all I can remember, but again there is more information at PMF
 
Sorry - I don't think you made that point clearly enough.

Way to ignore the rest of the post that, well, clarifies the point ;)


Guede's DNA was found inside her, we know that he had contact with her, and yet his DNA was not found on her body.

So comparing finding Guede's DNA to Sollecito's is inaccurate, unless you're implying that Guede's DNA was cross-contaminated to inside the body...
 
Not convicts until Court of Cassation sez so

Italian justice system

For historical and political reasons unique to Italy, the country has a justice system with an extraordinary number of protections for the accused, more than many other European nations.

"These criticisms we are hearing from the United States are so strange," said Stefania Carnevale, an assistant professor of criminal procedural law and prisoner's rights at the University of Ferrara.

"They leave me perplexed because the critique seems to be about the behavior of the police or the prosecutor or small details of this single trial, not the system as a whole. If there are errors in a trial, the Italian system has rigorous checks and balances in place to correct such mistakes, and guarantee an appeal."

Knox may have a number of salient points on which to base her appeal, most notably several pieces of contested forensic evidence and the fact that she was questioned without an attorney present despite being treated as a suspect by Perugian police.

The presumption of innocence is so strong in Italy that under criminal procedural law, Knox is still not considered a convicted murderer, and won't be, until she has been found guilty through all phases of the process: Court of Assize, where the jury just made a decision; the Appellate Court of Assize; and the Court of Cassation.

"In Italy there is a presumption of innocence until there is a definitive conviction," Carnevale said.- A.Vogt, SeattlePI

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/413244_knox15.html
 
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Fulcanelli,

The squiggles between the peaks give an indication of the amplitude of noise. Signal-to-noise is a quotient. If the noise were zero, the S/N ratios would be infinite, and the majority are below forty.

Chris

There is no noise and this has been proven in court. In two courts in fact.
 
Does it really matter? The witness reported they were having a good time, getting frisky and were talking about going home and having hot sex. Make of it what you will, accept it or don't.


Yes, it does matter.

It matters because you were exaggerating and sensationalizing. What has that got to do with methodically sifting through evidence to determine guilt or innocence?

Associating female sexuality (and sex in general) with evil has a long and murderous history.


(Where, BTW, does the witness say anything about them "getting frisky"?)
 
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Yes, it does matter.

It matters because you were exaggerating and sensationalizing. What has that got to do with methodically sifting through evidence to determine guilt or innocence?

Associating female sexuality (and sex in general) with evil has a long and murderous history.


(Where, BTW, does the witness say anything about them "getting frisky"?)

I think you are projecting some sort of chip on your shoulder onto the issue and making it about 'gender' which it is not, so you don't need to be getting defensive.

For a start, it is not only Amanda being criticised for her behaviour in the shop but also Raffaele, so this is not a 'female sexuality' issue (although I believe it's more serious in the case of Amanda as she knew Meredith longer and better then Raffaele did). In fact, the issue has nothing to do with 'sexuality at all per se. Nobody is saying there is anything wrong with sexuality, least of all female sexuality. The issue is that there is a time and place for everything. Being both sexually turned on the day of after Meredith's discovery evokes the suspicion that this sexual arousal was not independent of what had happened the day and night before, but as a 'consequence' of it, which is why it is relevant. At the same time, their laughing and joking shows they were not overly very upset about Meredith's death, just the opposite.

Now, when a witness says he saw the pair laughing, joking, fondling each other (as visible in the video from the store) and then while fiddling with the skimpy underwear they are buying talking about going home to have 'hot sex' I would call that getting 'frisky'. You may not like it, but there it is.
 
One last comment on signal-to-noise

There is no noise and this has been proven in court. In two courts in fact.

Fulcanelli,

I showed the electropherogram to the woman who teaches forensic chemistry at our university (We are both PhD's). She is Austrian and has almost no knowledge of this case, so she has no cultural or case-related biases of which I am aware. She immediately identified the squiggles as noise.

Take a close look at the Figure again, and notice how the squiggles are larger in the third row than the the others. The peaks are lower in S/N in this row, and more gain (amplification) is necessary to see them. Note that the Y-axis is smaller in row 3. When you amplify the signal, you also amplify the noise.

All DNA electropherograms have some noise. And so do all forms of spectroscopy, to the best of my knowledge. The spectroscopic experiment my student and I will do tonight, we will perform 10,000 times to achieve an acceptable signal-to-noise ratio. Fortunately, we will go to our respective homes while the machine in question gathers the data for us.

Chris
 
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