Tony Gauci and the mystery shopper

Bollier does have a lot of information that isn't generally discussed, and it often seems to be accurate. The John Hubbard suitcase for example. It's his interpretation of the facts that's so - idiosyncratic. So when it comes to facts about the case, I'm not inclined to dismiss it simply as Bollier ravings.

Rolfe.
 
From the unaccompanied suitcase thread.

There were clothes from Malta in the suitcase that were shipped from the suppliers to Gauci after the last possible date Talb was there. IIRC the "Yorkie" Trousers.


Ambrosia, please clarify. Abu Talb was suspected of being the mystery shopper, but with a date of 23rd November. Are you saying that one of the clothes purchases was of an item that didn't come in stock until after that date? That would comlpetely overturn the objections to the 7th December date, and as such I don't think it can be right.

However, are you merely accepting Talb's assertion that he was in Sweden on 23rd November? If so, as far as I can see, the evidence to support that isn't very strong.

Rolfe.
 
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I'm trying to tie down a bit more background on Gauci's identifications and on the furtive Talb. Together with possible motives someone may have being trying to incriminate Libya, or individuals, by leaving what could be seen as such a specific trail as the suitcase contents hint. Maybe deliberate trail? That is what the clothing of the suitcase would suggest if not assembled and loaded at Malta. Or at least, the contents of suitcase give the investigators a trail to Malta...simply to pack clothing, all quite identifiable if recovered, all to point directly to one shop. This would certainly help divert attention from any Heathrow or Frankfurt connection. Not only a lead to a host of department stores - but indeed one very small shop. Seemingly Gauci can make an almost exact recollection of the items bought, but not of the purchaser himself. With the break-in filed away at Scotland Yard, and the Frankfurt records under custody of the BKA, 'other investigations' and the clothes relating to Malta discovered, this would be supported by something else directing towards Malta. Somehow showing the system of travel by the suitcase. Sep 89 we also have Thurman's undisclosed interview with Khreesat.

According to the CIA's own disclosed documents, although with some areas remaining concealed , in a meeting (assumed to be with CIA and Police) held with (again assumed) Gauci in which he states,

”at 19 Sep meeting [deleted] [deleted] could not identify individual who purchased clothing found in suspect suitcase aboard 103 from sketch or from [deleted] computer image”......”next meeting is scheduled for 29 Sep”.



From a September 89 release, the CIA are querying a number of issues with their operative in Malta.

“Is P/1 aware of the use of Malta as a staging area for radical Palestinians?

Does P/1 know an Abu Taleb from Sweden?

Finally, is P/1 aware of any Libyan involvement with the activities of the PLFP-GC cell led by Dalqamuni in Frankfurt?”




August, and more pointedly September, turned out to be very crucial points in the investigation.
 
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P/1 ... Malta
P/2 ... Italy
Giaka talkin Gaddafi Freemasonry ...
Hmmm...

I haven't been able to follow this one far. I did have an observation on Gauci to share tho. Been compiling the daily media reports from the Zeist trial, as posted at the LTBU site.
http://www.gla.ac.uk/departments/schooloflaw/news/lockerbietrialbriefingunit/

For these days in 2000 2001
April 27,
May 2, 3, 4. 8, 10, 25, 30, 31
June 13, 15, 16, 19, 20 21, 22, 28, 29
July 11, 12, 14, 26
August 22, 23, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
September 26, 27, 28
October 3, 9, 23, 24
November 7, 10, 14, 15, 16,17, 28, 29
December 5
January 8, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 22, 24, 31

Some extracts are real bried, some (like when Bollier was on the stand) run into the pages. Some relevant info in there, but more useful to me in a single searchable document. Anyway, the days with Gauci are of interest.

11th July 2000
The main evidence on Tuesday was that of Mr Tony Gauci. Mr Gauci is the proprietor of the shop 'Mary's House' in Sliema, Malta from where the clothing in the suitcase allegedly containing the explosive device is said to have been purchased. He stated that the man who purchased the clothing resembled one of the accused - Mr Al Megrahi. However, he also admitted that in 1991 he had identified Mohamed Abu Talb as closely resembling the man who had made the purchases. The latter is, of course, one of the individuals incriminated by the defence.'

563 - 12th July 2000

The trial continued following the evidence of Anthony Gauci, the Maltese shop owner who the prosecution allege sold the items contained in a suitcase with the bomb which caused the Lockerbie disaster. This was not without difficulty however, as Maltese airport staff whom the prosecution had intended to examine as witnesses refused to attend the trial. Although the Maltese authorities could be requested to take statements from witnesses the prosecution indicated that they hoped this could be avoided unless it was absolutely necessary. The difficulty securing witness attendance has been alleged, in an article which appeared in the Sunday Herald, to be due to upset caused when telephones were illegally tapped during early Police investigations in Malta following the disaster. The refusal of the Maltese witnesses to attend resulted in the trial adjourning for two days.

Interesting line July 14
The defence referred to a reservation that Abu Talb had on a flight to Malta from Stockholm which was valid until November 1988. The prosecution said there was no proof that this journey was actually made.
clothes in apartment, Gauci-brand ID, travel arrangements, but no proof. I'm not sure either way, that's almost too much evidence for me actually, but...
 
Well, if we're busy doubting apparently respectable witnesses and suspecting them of collusion, can we have a go at the Paul and Tony show?

Tony seems not to be the sharpest knife in the drawer. Is it possible to co-opt a bear of very little brain to swear to a fabricated story, even under police interviews and cross-examination over more than ten years? Would any conspiracy take the risk on it?

What I'm suggesting is that the Maltese clothes packing the bomb bag weren't bought in Tony's shop at all, but simply taken from the large collection of clothes of Maltese manufacture Abu Talb had in his possession in Sweden, which had been obtained from the factories. That apart from Abu Talb's occasional visits to Malta where he acquired these clothes with the intention of selling them in Sweden, there really was no Maltese connection at all. Let's face it, if the PFLP-GC gang were behind this, with Abu Talb on board, they had absolutely no need to go shopping at Mary's House.

However, as part of the exercise to make it appear that the bomb suitcase had gone on the plane at Luqa, it was seen as desirable to locate the purchase of the clothes in Malta too. Gauci was identified as the owner of a shop which stocked the range of items identified, who might be bribed and/or coerced into "remembering" a suitable transaction.

OK, this isn't sounding all that convincing to me. My point is that the entire "mystery shopper" thing is so intrinsically unlikely, given the multitude of better and simpler ways of packing the case - while at the same time we know one of the suspect gang had a house-full of the bloody stuff with no need to go anywhere near Mary's House or anywhere else.

Anybody else have any ideas about this?

Rolfe.
 
Mmm, how did those scorched and burned clothes get into the hands of the Lockerbie investigators?
  • Megrahi bought them from Gauci on 7th December to pack round the bomb. (I don't think so.)
  • Abu Talb bought them from Gauci on 23rd November for that purpose. (Why the hell would he if he had a house-full of clothes from Maltese factories already?)
  • Someone else from the PFLP-GC bought them from Gauci on 23rd November for that purpose. (Same comment, unless Abu Talb suddenly wasn't talking to his mates.)
  • A. N. Other of the IRA or the Red Brigades or Black September bought them from Gauci on 23rd November for that purpose. (The equivalent of "the butler did it".)
  • A CIA or DIA agent disguised as a Libyan bought them from Gauci on 23rd November for that purpose, hoping Gauci would remember such a striking customer. (Seems a bit of a long shot even if you're into MIHOP.)
  • Abu Talb just grabbed what he had handy to pack round the bomb and the stuff was never near Mary's House in its life.
  • The CIA or the DIA used stuff sourced from Malta when fabricating the whole thing in the early months of 1989, because - er why? Are we trying to frame Libya in that way already?
The last two of these obviously require Gauci to have been either massively coached (and bribed/coerced) or just a lucky find of a shopkeeper who stocked the relevant items and was so good at following leading questions that he "remembered" just what the police were asking about.

I've probably missed a possibility or two. But that's the outline. If we assume it's possible that Gauci was either coached in some way, or simply extraordinarily compliant with the police line of questioning so that he "remembered" what they were asking about, what are the logical possibilities for the source of these cloth fragments? Which ones make sense within the wider ramifications of the puzzle?

Rolfe.
 
Mmm, how did those scorched and burned clothes get into the hands of the Lockerbie investigators?
<snip head-hurting list>
I've probably missed a possibility or two. But that's the outline. If we assume it's possible that Gauci was either coached in some way, or simply extraordinarily compliant with the police line of questioning so that he "remembered" what they were asking about, what are the logical possibilities for the source of these cloth fragments? Which ones make sense within the wider ramifications of the puzzle?

Rolfe.

Man, I just don't know what to make of this stuff anymore. I'm open to any possibilities up to and including full fabrication of clothes seized from Talb before, or just some.. Augh!

Okay... There may have been a Nov 23 purchase if enough items lines up in such a way it's beyond coincidence. The person is not Megrahi, who [ST]we[/ST] I can't say. I'm not as familiar with all this and can't get that way. Tony would have to mean nothing to me because I don't have the patience.

Here's a Gauci thought: In the other thread, I mentioned Tony's pointing finger 'doing its ouija board thing' to point to Megrahi, both literally and verbally. It's this article I saw earlier today that put the image in my mind, and considering Tony's qualities, it's an apt metaphor for what could be going on here. (in this case tho, Caplan is likely full of it).
Helped by a therapist, Rom Houben's outstretched finger tapped with surprising speed on a computer touchscreen, spelling out how he felt "alone, lonely, frustrated" in the 23 years he was trapped inside a paralyzed body.
After a doctor found he was wrongly diagnosed as being in a vegetative state, and worked out a way for him to communicate, Houben said he now feels reborn.
<snip>
"That's called 'facilitated communication,'" Caplan said. "That is Ouija board stuff. It's been discredited time and time again. When people look at it, it's usually the person doing the pointing who's doing the messages, not the person they claim they are helping."
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hgsMsAOMKbccOJb8x-r1pkC1PPCQD9C6FH080
 
The investigators were apparently impressed by the fact that Tony mentioned selling the customer an umbrella, something they hadn't had any notion of. They asked him for an umbrella identical to the one the man bought. When they went back to the evidence and looked at recovered umbrellas, hey, there was an identical umbrella and it tested positive for explosives!

However, there's a lot wrong with this. The umbrella in the bomb bag was shredded. It existed only as a few bits of metal and nylon. Its description in the evidence clearly indicates something identified from the start as being within the primary suitcase. This story about going back to base and sorting through a selection of umbrellas to find the right one is clearly nonsense. Also, there was so little of the umbrella left that I can't see how it could be identified as one sold by Gauci, even if he was able to remember exactly which umbrella the customer had bought ten months earlier.

Another point that apparently impressed the investigators was that Tony declared he hadn't sold a particular t-shirt to the customer in question, even though he stocked that brand of t-shirt. Surely, if he was just trying to please us, he'd have "remembered" selling such a shirt?" Uh, no, not necessarily.

Oh yes, and the ideomotor effect is exactly why the person carrying out the photo-identity parade shouldn't know which photo is that of the suspect.

Guess what?

Rolfe.
 
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Regarding the Libyan theory. I missed a bit. Here's what Megrahi is supposed to have done.
  • Both bought the clothes and put the bomb on the plane himself (with no apparent attempt at disguise)
  • Did these things only three miles apart
  • Did these things only two weeks apart
  • Bought the clothes in a type of shop where purchasers are more likely to be recognised and remembered
  • Set the timer so that the explosion had a fair chance of happening over land, or even on the tarmac
  • Didn't bother to remove the labels from the clothes (including "Made in Malta" ones)
Is is possible to lay a more obvious trail if you try?

Of course, if it wasn't actually Megrahi who bought the clothes (as seems likely), and the bomb wasn't put on the plane at Luqa (as seems almost unargable), then the first three points go away. Nevertheless, the second three points remain, no matter who did it or where the bomb was introduced. This seems very strange behaviour to me.

This would be highly suspicious, if, and only if, you expect the terrorist to try to conceal his activity to the highest possible degree, and if he is also highly knowledgable of investigation procedures and techniques. In the time before the internet and let's say CSI, it's not very hard to imagine a terrorist - or anyone who is not an investigator for that matter - assuming the debris was too scattered to be of much use, or simply not considering the investigation to be of much use in cases such as this.
Such situation isn't all that unlikely, it's probably more plausible than a terrorist with deep knowledge of what can be recovered after an air crash. This then would drop all points, except the one where he could put a much longer time on the timer.
That too doesn't seem a terribly important mistake, perhaps it was an added bonus for him to kill people on the ground, as he in the end did. It's also possible he intended for the bomb to go off over water, and simply didn't consider the possibility the flight would be delayed. It's not such a great mistake to make after all. It's also possible he wanted the bomb to go off as soon as possible, since prolonging the time would increase the chance the plane would land early. I know this is a small factor, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.

As an aside, given the amount of clothes said to have been in the bomb suitcase, which was apparently a normal size, it's odd how little seems to have been in the case. OK, the radio-cassette player in its box would have taken up some space, and there was an umbrella and a tweed jacket which are quite bulky, but it seems to me there was barely enough stuff to stop the box rattling around.

This seems perfectly sufficient for a suitcase with a bomb in it. All he needed to put in was the bomb and enough stuff to make it a reasonably believable suitcase. It is not sufficient for most travellers, but he didn't need it for travelling anyway, but to conceal a bomb - a task it turns out it was adequate to do.

McHrozni
 
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This would be highly suspicious, if, and only if, you expect the terrorist to try to conceal his activity to the highest possible degree, and if he is also highly knowledgable of investigation procedures and techniques. In the time before the internet and let's say CSI, it's not very hard to imagine a terrorist - or anyone who is not an investigator for that matter - assuming the debris was too scattered to be of much use, or simply not considering the investigation to be of much use in cases such as this.
Such situation isn't all that unlikely, it's probably more plausible than a terrorist with deep knowledge of what can be recovered after an air crash. This then would drop all points, except the one where he could put a much longer time on the timer.


If that was all that was weird about the case, I'd probably agree with you. You may well be entirely right about that. This is more about testing each point in the evidence chain to see how secure it is, than shouting "oh hey, look at this anomaly!"

As this is only one of many strange things about this case, and far from the strangest, I'd just like to figure how well it stands up to scrutiny, or whether it's possible it's dodgy.

That too doesn't seem a terribly important mistake, perhaps it was an added bonus for him to kill people on the ground, as he in the end did. It's also possible he intended for the bomb to go off over water, and simply didn't consider the possibility the flight would be delayed. It's not such a great mistake to make after all. It's also possible he wanted the bomb to go off as soon as possible, since prolonging the time would increase the chance the plane would land early. I know this is a small factor, but it's not outside the realm of possibility.


The possibility that the terrorists were trying to kill people on the ground has been discussed in detail in other threads. The fact is that nobody could have predicted which course the plane would take (it usually flew a more southerly route), and at 38 minutes out of Heathrow the chances of hitting habitation are low. It really was sheer bad luck that it landed on a very small town in the middle of a lot of scenery.

The flight was only delayed by about 10 or 15 minutes. Even if it had been on time, it might not have cleared land before the bomb exploded (depending on the route taken). In fact, given the situation at Heathrow at such a busy period, it wasn't at all unlikely it could still have been on the tarmac - assuming the detonator was a timer-only device, that is. I have difficulty believing that anyone planning something like this wasn't aware that transatlantic flights often take off late.

I would agree, planning would also have wanted to ensure the device didn't explode before the plane landed. However, this was a London to New York flight. They usually take about 8 hours. I don't think I've ever heard of one being 7 hours early on that route.

Seriously, the North Atlantic is a pretty big target. The plane would have been over cold salt water for several hours. All that was needed was to set the timer for an hour or so before the scheduled arrival time, maybe two hours if you think Pan Am might be using rocket fuel or something. Instead, the timer seems to have been set for only an hour after the plane was scheduled to push off from the gate, which even under the best of conditions would still have been maybe 50 minutes into the 8-hour flight.

This seems perfectly sufficient for a suitcase with a bomb in it. All he needed to put in was the bomb and enough stuff to make it a reasonably believable suitcase. It is not sufficient for most travellers, but he didn't need it for travelling anyway, but to conceal a bomb - a task it turns out it was adequate to do.


Again, you may be right. One still wonders why it was necessary to go to a shop and buy such a strange assortment of stuff, brand new. The other oddity is the high correlation between what the investigators found in the wreckage and identified as "blast damaged" and the list of shopping Tony Gauci says he clearly remembers selling to this particular customer, nine months before anybody came asking him about it.

Not necessarily anomalous though.

Rolfe.
 
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If that was all that was weird about the case, I'd probably agree with you. You may well be entirely right about that. This is more about testing each point in the evidence chain to see how secure it is, than shouting "oh hey, look at this anomaly!"

As this is only one of many strange things about this case, and far from the strangest, I'd just like to figure how well it stands up to scrutiny, or whether it's possible it's dodgy.

Once you call the integrity of investigators into question, literarily anything can be made to appear dodgy. The trick is in not doing it backwards - would anything of what you stated be only possible if he was being framed? The answer is obviously no. Is anything of what you stated considerably more plausible as a result of framing? Again, the answer is no.

The possibility that the terrorists were trying to kill people on the ground has been discussed in detail in other threads. The fact is that nobody could have predicted which course the plane would take (it usually flew a more southerly route), and at 38 minutes out of Heathrow the chances of hitting habitation are low. It really was sheer bad luck that it landed on a very small town in the middle of a lot of scenery.

Perhaps. This was just one of the options. What if he calculated that the most likely delay was 36 minutes and hoped for the plane to crash on a part of London? I wouldn't do it, neither would you, but can you discount the possibility? Again, the answer is no.

I would agree, planning would also have wanted to ensure the device didn't explode before the plane landed. However, this was a London to New York flight. They usually take about 8 hours. I don't think I've ever heard of one being 7 hours early on that route.

Suppose someone warned the airline that there was a bomb on board of this flight. It could be connected to this attack, or just a random threat. Impossible? Definitely not.

I certainly agree his choice(s) aren't the best that could be made to futher his goals. That being said, had they been, that would be a strong indication he indeed had surprisingly good inside information - much stronger than lack thereof implicates a conspiracy.

Again, you may be right. One still wonders why it was necessary to go to a shop and buy such a strange assortment of stuff, brand new.

A strange assortment of stuff can be highly useful. Had the bomb been found, there would be nothing that should connect him to the crime, since it wasn't the clothes he wore or used. Perhaps he didn't consider it likely the shopkeepers would remember him (highly plausible), or perhaps someone else did the shopping for him (also highly plausible) - and the two are not mutually exclusive, either.

If you wanted to make sure the hidden bomb couldn't be traced to you, putting new clothes you don't use besides it makes perfect sense. If the assortment is highly unusual, it might throw the investigators off your scent, so this is an added bonus.

I find the behavior fairly consistent with hiding his identity. I know it backfired, but that was because a shopkeeper had a surprisingly good memory.

The other oddity is the high correlation between what the investigators found in the wreckage and identified as "blast damaged" and the list of shopping Tony Gauci says he clearly remembers selling to this particular customer, nine months before anybody came asking him about it.

Not necessarily anomalous though.

Rolfe.

Perhaps he had a good memory, or perhaps Tony Gauci had a complexity that made people recognize and remember him easily. As you said, not necessarily anomalus, but even if it is, it doesn't mean anything else you have is anomalus - it is quite reasonable if you look it from the perspective of the terrorist, as you should.

McHrozni
 
Once you call the integrity of investigators into question, literarily anything can be made to appear dodgy. The trick is in not doing it backwards - would anything of what you stated be only possible if he was being framed? The answer is obviously no. Is anything of what you stated considerably more plausible as a result of framing? Again, the answer is no.


Seriously, do you have any familiarity with the complexities of the incident? The problem is that the Official Version is several degrees less plausible than most of the CTs. There is very good reason to suspect a cover-up at the least and possibly fabrication of evidence, and once you've acknowledged that, then there's really no excuse for not examining all the possibilities even in the aspects that seem less suspicious than others.

If you begin by ascribing "maximum probability" to the official version and "vanishing improbability" to any sort of coverup or frame-up, then you're not going to get very far.

Perhaps. This was just one of the options. What if he calculated that the most likely delay was 36 minutes and hoped for the plane to crash on a part of London? I wouldn't do it, neither would you, but can you discount the possibility? Again, the answer is no.


Neither can I discount the possibility that the magic pixies told them to set the timer for that time, but I'd consider both suggestions somewhat less probable than the possibility that the detonation device might not actually have been of the type it was said to be. Thinking like the terrorist, as you advocate, throws that one out on the first pass.

Suppose someone warned the airline that there was a bomb on board of this flight. It could be connected to this attack, or just a random threat. Impossible? Definitely not.


Somebody did. About seven somebodies, I believe. At least, some sources detail about seven different warnings, though not to the actual airline. That's probably for another thread though.

I certainly agree his choice(s) aren't the best that could be made to futher his goals. That being said, had they been, that would be a strong indication he indeed had surprisingly good inside information - much stronger than lack thereof implicates a conspiracy.


I don't entirely follow that. What "conspiracy" do you need to postulate to explain a terrorist setting a timer to give the best possible chance of his device exploding over the ocean, and obtaining the materials he needed from sources that couldn't be traced back to him?

A strange assortment of stuff can be highly useful. Had the bomb been found, there would be nothing that should connect him to the crime, since it wasn't the clothes he wore or used. Perhaps he didn't consider it likely the shopkeepers would remember him (highly plausible), or perhaps someone else did the shopping for him (also highly plausible) - and the two are not mutually exclusive, either.


Are you at all familiar with the evidence as presented in court? The proposition that the same individual had bought the clothes and planted the bomb was central to the prosecution's case. If that didn't happen, then the Official Version is up in smoke.

I do find Gauci's memory to be quite implausible, given what he is said to have remembered about a short transaction that happened nine months before anyone asked him about it, which is kind of the starting point for the thread. It still seems an unnecessary risk to take, when one considers how many other ways there are of obtaining clothes that absolutely can't be traced back to the purchaser.

If you wanted to make sure the hidden bomb couldn't be traced to you, putting new clothes you don't use besides it makes perfect sense. If the assortment is highly unusual, it might throw the investigators off your scent, so this is an added bonus.


I don't agree. Brand new clothes always have the possibility to be traced through the manufacturer, which is what was done in this case. Second-hand clothes, stolen clothes or even very old clothes are a lot less traceable. Buying the entire odd assortment in the same shop, only two weeks before the operation, isn't a great way not to be traced.

I find the behavior fairly consistent with hiding his identity. I know it backfired, but that was because a shopkeeper had a surprisingly good memory.

Perhaps he had a good memory, or perhaps Tony Gauci had a complexity that made people recognize and remember him easily. As you said, not necessarily anomalus, but even if it is, it doesn't mean anything else you have is anomalus - it is quite reasonable if you look it from the perspective of the terrorist, as you should.


Tony Gauci has been described as "an apple short of a picnic". Maybe he has a particularly quirky memory for specific purchasers (or rather purchases, he seems to get a lot hazier when it comes to the actual purchaser) that's reliable even after a nine-month gap, but nobody ever really investigated that.

Have you examined the evidence? The possibility that Gauci's identification (as relied on by the Official Version) is correct is actually quite remote. It would seem that the obvious question is, "in that case, who was the mystery shopper?"

I came at this from the position of saying, well, Toni Gauci saw the man who bought those clothes, and whoever that was he was certainly part of the gang. That itself still leaves the huge question of "who was it" absolutely wide open.

However, the more I look at it, the more I wonder if in fact that purchase did actually take place in the way we are led to believe, and if indeed Tony ever saw one of the terrorists at all. It may be that he did, and his account is more or less accurate. Or not, as the case may be. However, the answer is likely to be found in close examination of the evidence, not in starting from the assumption that any Official Version (no matter how implausible or how thin the evidence for it is) must be seen a priori as having maximum probability.

Rolfe.
 
Seriously, do you have any familiarity with the complexities of the incident? The problem is that the Official Version is several degrees less plausible than most of the CTs. There is very good reason to suspect a cover-up at the least and possibly fabrication of evidence, and once you've acknowledged that, then there's really no excuse for not examining all the possibilities even in the aspects that seem less suspicious than others.

If you begin by ascribing "maximum probability" to the official version and "vanishing improbability" to any sort of coverup or frame-up, then you're not going to get very far.

I'm probably not as informed as you, but that's not the point I was trying to make. If the integrity of investigation is in question, then every piece of evidence can be made to show a conspiracy: if it shows the guilt of the accused in the investigation, it can be said it was planted. If it doesn't, it shows there is an actual conspiracy involved.

Again, the trick is to find direct evidence something was wrong with the investigation and then show (or at least indicate) where and why certain artefacts were introduces as a part of conspiracy. You're doing it the other way around, you find artifacts that would be introduced by a conspiracy had it taken place, and label them evidence of a conspiracy, where there is a perfectly adequate explanation for them without a conspiracy. This doesn't mean the evidence you present can't show conspiracy, but in itself, it does not stand.

Somebody did. About seven somebodies, I believe. At least, some sources detail about seven different warnings, though not to the actual airline. That's probably for another thread though.

I believe this confirms my point as at least possible.

I don't entirely follow that. What "conspiracy" do you need to postulate to explain a terrorist setting a timer to give the best possible chance of his device exploding over the ocean, and obtaining the materials he needed from sources that couldn't be traced back to him?

Your point is based on the premise that the terrorist knew what could be recovered from an air crash and what could be pieced together from a wreckage and also that he tried to avoid such an investigation from suceeding. The first one is a significant leap of faith, it is entirely plausible he thought that the bomb and the subsequent crah would destroy any evidence he left behind anyway, and he didn't think he needed to bother too much with details.
The second premise you're coming from is plausible, though not entirely certain.

In other words, your premise is not falsifiable: had the crash happened over open seas, that could just as easily be interpreted as the terrorist knowing exactly what he had to do to conceal his identity. That can just as easily be considered evidence of a conspiracy as a terrorist not knowing how far he had to go to conceal his identity.

Are you at all familiar with the evidence as presented in court? The proposition that the same individual had bought the clothes and planted the bomb was central to the prosecution's case. If that didn't happen, then the Official Version is up in smoke.

Are you familiar with the fact that prosecutors don't always present the case in a perfect way either? Assume that the prosecutor was wrong on this count, but the same people he accused still planted the bomb: legally, the prosecutions' case may (or may not) be dead, but that doesn't mean those people didn't commit the terrorist act they were being accused of.

I do find Gauci's memory to be quite implausible, given what he is said to have remembered about a short transaction that happened nine months before anyone asked him about it, which is kind of the starting point for the thread. It still seems an unnecessary risk to take, when one considers how many other ways there are of obtaining clothes that absolutely can't be traced back to the purchaser.

Again, I do agree this is a bit weak on the official side. On the other hand, it is not impossible at all. I have shown at least two possibilities which would both explain how that happened, and could run in parallel to reinforce each other (unusually good memory + complexity that makes him stand out). Another possibility is that the shopkeeper remembered him by coincidence.

I do agree this is unexpected, I wouldn't build a case on it, but this is as far as it goes.

I don't agree. Brand new clothes always have the possibility to be traced through the manufacturer, which is what was done in this case. Second-hand clothes, stolen clothes or even very old clothes are a lot less traceable. Buying the entire odd assortment in the same shop, only two weeks before the operation, isn't a great way not to be traced.

You're making two mutually exclusive arguments here: either it would be expected that the purchase could be traced, in which case this argument stands, but your argument about the shopkeepers' memory is destroyed; or the claim about the shopkeepers' memory stands, but then this argument is destroyed - it is indeed a good way to conceal yourself to do it this way.

Brand new clothes can be traced to a store at best. You're talking about them being traced to a person. With a cash transaction, those are two different things, yes?

Tony Gauci has been described as "an apple short of a picnic". Maybe he has a particularly quirky memory for specific purchasers (or rather purchases, he seems to get a lot hazier when it comes to the actual purchaser) that's reliable even after a nine-month gap, but nobody ever really investigated that.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. You have an indication something might be amiss, but no evidence whatsoever it actually is.

Have you examined the evidence? The possibility that Gauci's identification (as relied on by the Official Version) is correct is actually quite remote. It would seem that the obvious question is, "in that case, who was the mystery shopper?"

Does the circumstantial evidence fit this? Is the man convicted someone who would have the means and the motive to commit such a crime? Does other evidence concur? I'm fairly certain the answer is yes.
A criminal investigation very rarely focuses on just one piece of evidence, but the prosecution sometimes does. This is not indicative the investigation was faulty, although defence sometimes tries to paint that picture.

McHrozni
 
Every time I see this thread I think that "the mystery shopper" sounds like the least threatening CT ever!

If you're al Megrahi, or anyone concerned with the truth about this heinous attack, the shape-shifting mystery shopper and Tony's ouija finger are downright chilling, to a Lovecraftian, screaming-abyss-of-insanity degree.

McHrozni, hey. Thanks for offering some sorely needed counter-arguments, which are always useful to test against and get offered so rarely. Unfortunately, they're not that insightful re: details. Some reasonable considerations, but nothing that's making me re-think stuff or anything like that.

I'll pick one point:
McHrozni said:
If the integrity of investigation is in question, then every piece of evidence can be made to show a conspiracy: if it shows the guilt of the accused in the investigation, it can be said it was planted. If it doesn't, it shows there is an actual conspiracy involved.

The integrity of the investigation is very definitely in question. And yes, much of the evidence seems to show a possible "conspiracy." The latter points leads to the former at least as much as the other way, please don't get confused on that point.

Conversely, if one trusts the overall conclusions, since they were, uh, concluded, then one is free to presume all evidence and reasoning is sound. That second about sums up where you're coming from, right? Because I know you didn't come to trust the investiviction thru rigorous study of the evidence and the way it was assembled.

So just step back and re-consider cause-and-effect, bias vs. investigation, and recognize that you are trying to rope an elephant with dental floss.

A helpful idea is to go point by point, like on Tony Gauci here in this thread, his brother, the payments, the interviews, the lineup, the purchase. Show us some bit of that trustworthy case coming through in this here evidence. Because we all have our biases and can have a hard time seeing things.

- cheers
 
Can you detail why?

McHrozni

Because we question things. The alleged crime is dumb - possible as you have shown, sure, but dumb as a hammer, comapred to a logical alternate case they WERE following against another group in ways that DO make sense. Other factors, detailed elsewhere, and many other good points you don't know yet, all a bit OT here. From there we show problems with the evidence (such as payola scams, chronic inconsistency) that is consistent with these suspicions of a bad case. That was all the stuff we've been talking about before you stepped in. Sorry, not gonna re-hash it all.

I'm not as familiar with the Gauci angle but that's the best part to discuss here. What do you know, or can find out, about why his testimony was reliable, useful, truthful, etc. Like what did the FBI say about their process and the evidence and its reliability? Specific clues?

ETA: Oh, and Rolfe, good move posting the WRMEA article here. That mag is debunker magnet, "anti-Israel" pro-Palestinian, a little CTish, often sloppy and shrill. They've been big on re-reporting the USS Liberty incident. It should have already generated a few debunks. It does have a neat secret about Gauci's true name tho. ;)
 
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The alleged crime is dumb - possible as you have shown, sure, but dumb as a hammer,

Overall, I'd say the crime isn't nearly as dumb as you make it to be. There was only one noteworthy error made, with the timer. It has plenty of plausible explanations: perhaps the terrorist wasn't as concerned with investigators on the ground, or he made the mistake of not allowing enough time to elapse, or perhaps he didn't trust the detonator to be effective if he set a significantly longer time, or just wasn't familiar with it's options. All of them are quite plausible explanations, which don't make the attack as dumb as a hammer.

I'm not as familiar with the Gauci angle but that's the best part to discuss here. What do you know, or can find out, about why his testimony was reliable, useful, truthful, etc. Like what did the FBI say about their process and the evidence and its reliability? Specific clues?

I don't believe I'm sufficiently knowledgable to discuss that at this point.

McHrozni
 

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