Yes, I think they will. Again, see the section on "Affordability".
Why would that be a rational decision? Pay the $1,250 rather than the $5,500, and you save $4,250 a year. And if you get sick, no problem! You can buy insurance then.
$5,500 Remember, there are also employer mandates, so I think it's likely that the fine will be roughly equal to one or another insurance option.
All employers, or just those employing above acertain number of people (it's actually a payroll of $500,000 or more)? What about contract workers? Part-time workers? Temps? Self-employed?
There's going to be a lot of people doing the math and realizing they're better off, way better off, by not buying insurance until they get sick. And this will not lower health insurance premiums, it will raise them as healthy people drop their coverage and only the sick buy it.
At any rate, I'm glad to hear you admit you're wrong in saying that the plan caps the fine at $250.
It's still far less than is necessary to induce compliance. In fact, the maximum tax penalty for failure to comply "shall not exceed the applicable national average premium for such taxable year". So even if you pay the maximum penalty allowed you may still be paying less than you would in insurance premiums, if insurance premiums in your area exceed the national average.
ETA: Also, even if the fine is slightly less than the premium, the fine doesn't give you health insurance. If you go to the doctor, you've got a full uninsured bill to pay (or to ignore an potentially cause lots of problems).
All you need to do is sign up for a plan after you get sick/injured, and the mandate to cover pre-existing conditions guarantees you will be covered. In fact, why not start a company which automatically enrolls you in a health insurance plan of your choice when you show up in the ER, even if you're incapacitated? Nothing in this bill discourages this practice.
I'm pretty sure it does. I'm pretty sure that's part of the anti-trust exemption that is being revoked. But I don't know. At any rate there definitely are provisions in the bill to allow for greater competition, which is in fact a cost-reducing measure.
Which sections of the bill do this?
Again, if you're saying this bill isn't the best way to reduce costs, I agree with you wholeheartedly. But I disagree when you say that there is nothing in the bill that will reduce costs--especially if you consider the costs on a per capita basis.
Time will trll, but I doubt it. I predict in 10 years time the US will still have the most costly, bloated, dysfunctional health delivery system in the Western world, and by a wide margin.
No, this prediction won't qualify for the $1 million.