I don't get why Obama doesn't Just Say it.

Skeptic

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Look, the health care bill will insure lots of people who cannot get insurance now. This means raising health care costs for everybody else.

Now, if Obama had just said: "we need to take care of those who are sick or otherwise cannot get insurance. This costs money, and must be paid for by other people. But it's something I think society should do" that would be one thing.

Many might disagree. But many would agree. I think a health care bill would have a good chance of passing then. Even if it didn't, it would be a disappointment for Obama but not reflect badly on him. He could continue to work quietly on a revised bill, for instance, and come back in two years saying (in effect): "look, you say it would be nice but cost too much. How about plan B?"

Instead, Obama is trying to convince everybody of the blatantly untrue, indeed of something that could not possibly be true: that the bill somehow will not raise taxes, will not cost the average American more money, and so on.

Why?

And don't tell me it's a politicians' usual way of working towards a goal by lying. Don't tell me it is deep strategic thinking based on considering likely opposition from the republicans. That would work if he were running in, say, a district, or perhaps a state, election.

But he is president of the USA for God's sake. He is precisely the one man who is supposed to be open and represent the people in general and tell them the truth, let the chips fall where they may.

Why doesn't he do it, I don't undestand. It seems not just the morally correct thing, but the practically correct thing -- perhaps not for Joe Schmoe who is running for his third term as representative of district 17 in New York; yes, for the POTUS.
 
I am in favor of the Health Care Bill simply because we cannot keep on going the way we are, but I agree that I wish they would be more honest about how they are going to pay for it.
 
Look, the health care bill will insure lots of people who cannot get insurance now. This means raising health care costs for everybody else.

Now, if Obama had just said: "we need to take care of those who are sick or otherwise cannot get insurance. This costs money, and must be paid for by other people. But it's something I think society should do" that would be one thing.

Many might disagree. But many would agree. I think a health care bill would have a good chance of passing then. Even if it didn't, it would be a disappointment for Obama but not reflect badly on him. He could continue to work quietly on a revised bill, for instance, and come back in two years saying (in effect): "look, you say it would be nice but cost too much. How about plan B?"

Instead, Obama is trying to convince everybody of the blatantly untrue, indeed of something that could not possibly be true: that the bill somehow will not raise taxes, will not cost the average American more money, and so on.

I agree with the idea that it is a moral imperative to cover everyone even if we have to pay more for it. I am willing to pay more.

However, there is a fly in the ointment here:

Total spending on health care, per person, 2007
United States: $7290
United Kingdom: $2992
Italy: $2686
Spain: $2671
Japan: $2581 (2006)


If we went to a single payer system like they have overseas, is it unreasonable to think we might pay less consider the statistics above?
 
Look, the health care bill will insure lots of people who cannot get insurance now. This means raising health care costs for everybody else.

Nope. Countries with nationalised healthcare tend to spend less of their GDP on it.

Instead, Obama is trying to convince everybody of the blatantly untrue, indeed of something that could not possibly be true: that the bill somehow will not raise taxes, will not cost the average American more money, and so on.

Err if you had even a basic knowlage of statistics you could see how it could end up costing the average american no extra.
 
Err if you had even a basic knowlage of statistics you could see how it could end up costing the average american no extra.

I had a theory that the effects of everyone having healthcare would lower the overall spending of healthcare, but I don't see what this has to do with statistics. Is there something else I am missing?
 
If we went to a single payer system like they have overseas, is it unreasonable to think we might pay less consider the statistics above?
Yes, because the reasons for high costs here have little to do with who is paying.

And there is nothing in the current bill that will bring down costs, in fact it's likely to increase them.
 
Yes, because the reasons for high costs here have little to do with who is paying.

Oversimplified to the point of being wrong.

And there is nothing in the current bill that will bring down costs, in fact it's likely to increase them.

Most likely correct. The current bill looks like a mess of half-measures and half-assery that probably won't get us close to the point of our European counterparts.
 
Err if you had even a basic knowlage of statistics you could see how it could end up costing the average american no extra.


Please elaborate, in detail. Otherwise I'm going to assume that is just some kind of blind faith. It flies in the face of reason, to me. Maybe I also lack this statistical genius. But I'm willing to be educated.
 
Please elaborate, in detail. Otherwise I'm going to assume that is just some kind of blind faith. It flies in the face of reason, to me. Maybe I also lack this statistical genius. But I'm willing to be educated.

There are several reasons.

The first is that expansion of the insurance risk pool will spread the risk around further. Most of the people without health insurance are reasonably healthy, simply because most people are reasonably healthy -- the medically uninsurable are a problem, but not a major demographic.

The second is that people without insurance still get medical attention (which ends up driving the costs, which in turn end up getting covered by the insurance companies). If you have, for example, an ER that costs $5000/hr to run, but half of your patients are uninsured charity cases, you'll end up charging the paying patients the equivalent of $10,000/hr. Putting the charity cases onto the insurance rolls will spread the costs out more fairly and reduce health care costs for the people who currently have insurance.

The third is that insurance companies tend to prefer paying for cheap preventative treatments over expensive acute treatments. My dental insurance company, for example, would much rather pay for a cleaning twice a year instead of a root canal. My medical insurance would rather pay for a blood pressure screening and a diet-and-exercise routine than a triple bypass following a heart attack. They'd also prefer to pay for a screening and simple outpatient surgery for stage I cancer than a full court press set of chemo, surgery, and radiation for stage III.
 
Look, the health care bill will insure lots of people who cannot get insurance now. This means raising health care costs for everybody else.
It doesn't even necessarily mean that.

You could completely unlink the two. Establish a welfare program for the needy (in this case, state-subsidized health care), and raise a tax from the affluent to pay for it. Deal with reforming the system as a completely separate issue.

Sure, it's government-enforced charity, and therefore not really charity at all, but if there's a net social benefit from it, I wouldn't complain.

And sure, it lacks the epic grandeur of a sweeping overhaul of the entire system all at once, an amazing feat that will cause Barack Obama's name to echo down the halls of history in stentorian tones for centuries to come... but other than that, I don't really see the problem.
 
Please elaborate, in detail. Otherwise I'm going to assume that is just some kind of blind faith. It flies in the face of reason, to me. Maybe I also lack this statistical genius. But I'm willing to be educated.

The issue is the average american. In this case we are probably talking about income. Now if you use the median income as the average (normal approach since the mean tends to produce some pretty meaningless figures) then the average american earned $41.5K in 2008.

It would be fairly trivial to set up any taxes to pay for goverment involvement in healthcare so that they didn't hit anyone earning less than $45K per year.

So statisticaly it is entirely posible for it to be true. If it is desirable to take that aproach is a seperate issue.
 
I pity, in some sense, the American politician. If he tells the truth, he won't get elected.


We have met the enemy, and they are us.
 
It doesn't even necessarily mean that.

You could completely unlink the two. Establish a welfare program for the needy (in this case, state-subsidized health care), and raise a tax from the affluent to pay for it. Deal with reforming the system as a completely separate issue.

Problem is that thaty would probably only work until the ecconomy got better and people elected the GOP to all the important offices and someone started calling the taxes "theft" and scrapped the program.


And sure, it lacks the epic grandeur of a sweeping overhaul of the entire system all at once, an amazing feat that will cause Barack Obama's name to echo down the halls of history in stentorian tones for centuries to come... but other than that, I don't really see the problem.

I think the part I bolded is what bothers rightwingers the most.
 
Why doesn't he do it, I don't undestand. It seems not just the morally correct thing, but the practically correct thing -- perhaps not for Joe Schmoe who is running for his third term as representative of district 17 in New York; yes, for the POTUS.

Because, for Obama, this, like most every other issue, is first and foremost a political issue. His support depends solely upon his long-term pulse of the electorate analysis. He isn't interested in trying to shape voter interest and perceptions, but rather, predict them and stay in step with them.
 
I pity, in some sense, the American politician. If he tells the truth, he won't get elected.


We have met the enemy, and they are us.

PJ O'Rourke's Parliament of Whores did a great job of discussing the problem, with a few good laughs tossed in.

DR
 
Now, if Obama had just said: "we need to take care of those who are sick or otherwise cannot get insurance. This costs money, and must be paid for by other people. But it's something I think society should do" that would be one thing.
But he has repeatedly said that one of the major reasons for healthcare reform is specifically to save money. Abandoning that reason would not make him more honest.
 
But he has repeatedly said that one of the major reasons for healthcare reform is specifically to save money. Abandoning that reason would not make him more honest.

It's quite irrational: "We've got to spend more to save money".
 
More precisely, "we've got to spend other people's money to save money".
 

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