macdoc
Philosopher
There must be more vertical convection given the change in heat load in the ocean.
But what??
But what??
Is there an upside to global warming?
- Thread starter Cainkane1
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The pattern is a little more complicated than cold/hot east/west. It now seems fairly certain that ‘warm’ PDO phase amplifies the strength of El Nino and attenuates La Nina (and obviously the ‘cool’ phase does the opposite). If nothing else that will have some effect on long term averages.
It's hard to explain the ‘77 regime change without it.
True, but our arsenal of sensors grows all the time now. In the last 20 years we’ve probably learned more about the way our climate works than in all of human history before.
How did we get here from upsides and downsides?
My fault.
macdoc
Philosopher
How could that possibly be - it's not a forcing.
It doesn't have to be. If the El Ninos are bigger and more frequent then the average SST will increase. AGW is the forcing, El Nino is the symptom.
macdoc
Philosopher
Uh no - AGW is the forcing and driving the heat content up - hotter El Nino are an excursion of a warming geosystem.
ENSO is not driving the average up...AGW is....
It's still only pooling, just off a hotter baseload.
ENSO is not driving the average up...AGW is....
It's still only pooling, just off a hotter baseload.
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
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Certainly don't want it, but I'm don't think our wants will have much impact on the situation. I mean, don't get me wrong, by all means we should all do as much as we can to minimize what is already occurring, I just don't think that our efforts will stop, much less reverse what has already been set in motion.
macdoc
Philosopher
DogB
No I didn't say what you said.
Here is a summary again
AGW is driving the heat gain.
El Nino is just an excursion on an inclined plane - it is not driving the average
ONLY AGW drives the average up.
Think about it for a moment.
No I didn't say what you said.
Here is a summary again
AGW is driving the heat gain.
El Nino is just an excursion on an inclined plane - it is not driving the average
ONLY AGW drives the average up.
Think about it for a moment.
macdoc
Philosopher
Faint hope on reversal or stopping as what is in the pipeline is a done deal.
Curving the top off is feasible....
China came out pretty hard....
Mechanical extraction IS possible tho.....
The nations responsible for the great bulk of emissions have the technology to get to low carbon in 3 decades and perhaps pull it down in 6.
Will power???
China has the warchest, the will and the vision and desire to make money on it.....sigh - sometimes command economies...
and all their engineers are heading home to make money......
China has to clean up quickly or smother and they are very very good at making money off of advanced technology.....and slicing a chunk off the $7 trillion a year fossil fuel industry is a tempting target.
Not to mention energy security.
We had what, 3 bilateral climate deals announced this week with India China and US and that's BEFORE Copenhagen even convenes.
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
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Huge difference of scale across the range of the situation.
If 0.6 degrees C were all that were in the pipeline, I wouldn't be near so concerned. If we could wave a magic wand and completely stop all of humanity's CO2 emissions today, the temps will continue to rise for centuries. Albeitly at a slower rate. And we've got a lot of feedbacks that are at or beyond their trigger points now, and some of these are capable of doubling (or more) the impacts we have made so far.
And that's the good news, the bad news is that we don't have anything like a magic wand in the works.
Fatalism serves no one.....
It isn't fatalism, merely pragmatic realism.
DogB
Sure for us snug and warm (or cool) in our Western economies it will probably be “relatively” easy to shift gears.
It will be devastating for those in emerging economies who cannot access cheap energy.
I am not against shifting energy sources.. probably a necessity (although not in the doomsayers timeframe).
Man almost always finds a gradual sustainable way.. lets not kill 50 million Africans to alleviate a problem that may not exist !
Sure for us snug and warm (or cool) in our Western economies it will probably be “relatively” easy to shift gears.
It will be devastating for those in emerging economies who cannot access cheap energy.
I am not against shifting energy sources.. probably a necessity (although not in the doomsayers timeframe).
Man almost always finds a gradual sustainable way.. lets not kill 50 million Africans to alleviate a problem that may not exist !
No you think about it.
Forget the baseline for a moment – image a situation where we get a phase characterised by larger and more frequent El Nino events and smaller and less frequent La Nina events. This is then followed by a phase where the situation is exactly reversed.
In the first phase the average will kick up, in the second it will kick down. The slope of this cycle will depend greatly on the time period over which you are averaging the data. If the time period begins to approach the ‘wavelength’ of your cycle and at the same time the total length of the ‘phases’ approaches to time period over which the AGW baseline effect has been active, then it becomes difficult to disentangle the effects.
As lomiller pointed out pages ago, over time the total effect of AGW will eventually increase to the point where such effects are not significant. Personally I’m not yet convinced we’ve reached that point.
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
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And there's a reason for that.
I hope you are right,
I would love to wrong about this, but so far, I just don't see anything like the understanding, yet alone the will and drive to accomplish what all needs to be accomplished to dramatically cut down the top end, yet alone provide a smooth ride.
Personally, I see somewhere between 4-6o C as a very likely result by 2100
Who said anything about Africa. I'm proposing we bear the burden of developing the technology. It’s only fair; we’ve reaped the benefits of the economic advantages that fossil fuels bring. The third world will naturally follow along when there’s a financial reason to do so.
When the total lifespan costs for a solar/thermal power plant matches or betters that for an equivalent coal fired power station then the battle is won.
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
He's not doomed. Neither am I. We are both sufficiently old that what is about to happen will see us in our graves.
So, you can go dream up some other imagined reason that we care about this issue.
macdoc
Philosopher
TS
I agree - but it's hellishly - pardon the pun - better than 10 which MIT gives a 5% chance.
IF we hold it to 4 - that means the curve will have flattened.
BAU gives 4 as early as 2055.
It is NOT going to be a smooth ride, it will be an interesting ride.
I have no doubt of China's will, resources and over riding "must do".
US has actually done okay in sectors.....needs to target coal big time.
Europe is on track anyway as is Japan. Sweden and France far along to carbon neutral.
India will need help and without a command economy or a large warchest - plus the hampering of democratic process..hard to do.
That said - they have brilliant scientists and are gung ho on nuclear and must get into desalination big time.
Oddly Cuba, out of sheer necessity is a model for poor nations to lower fossil dependence.
Don't get me wrong....I'm only cautiously optmistic and think we should look at was IS being accomplished rather than the size of the hill to climb.
Things like the LEEDs Platinum head office for Bank of America, Google's efforts and Portland's total green city program - all positives.
Faint hope but not hopeless.....
I agree - but it's hellishly - pardon the pun - better than 10 which MIT gives a 5% chance.
IF we hold it to 4 - that means the curve will have flattened.
BAU gives 4 as early as 2055.
It is NOT going to be a smooth ride, it will be an interesting ride.
I have no doubt of China's will, resources and over riding "must do".
US has actually done okay in sectors.....needs to target coal big time.
Europe is on track anyway as is Japan. Sweden and France far along to carbon neutral.
India will need help and without a command economy or a large warchest - plus the hampering of democratic process..hard to do.
That said - they have brilliant scientists and are gung ho on nuclear and must get into desalination big time.
Oddly Cuba, out of sheer necessity is a model for poor nations to lower fossil dependence.
Don't get me wrong....I'm only cautiously optmistic and think we should look at was IS being accomplished rather than the size of the hill to climb.
Things like the LEEDs Platinum head office for Bank of America, Google's efforts and Portland's total green city program - all positives.
Faint hope but not hopeless.....
macdoc
Philosopher
AT ..doomed....
Piss off with the puerile pop psych.
It's blinkered ill-informed attitudes like yours that slow dealing with the issues.
Luckily policy maker and the climate science community have your ilk on ignore as Copenhagen shows
Have you even bothered to read the Synthesis report ??
http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport/
...honest inquirer ...yeah right
??.
We have the capability to have all the comforts we have now on low or no carbon...does that sound like doom.
I have part of it now....I will have more of it soon as EV vehicles reach maturity.
Bit of maturity is sorely lacking in the denier cadre around here...
Piss off with the puerile pop psych.
It's blinkered ill-informed attitudes like yours that slow dealing with the issues.
Luckily policy maker and the climate science community have your ilk on ignore as Copenhagen shows
Have you even bothered to read the Synthesis report ??
http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport/
...honest inquirer ...yeah right
??.We have the capability to have all the comforts we have now on low or no carbon...does that sound like doom.
I have part of it now....I will have more of it soon as EV vehicles reach maturity.
Bit of maturity is sorely lacking in the denier cadre around here...
Macdoc
Well I admit I was trying to push your button a little (soz) it just seems so easy to push !
As far as lacking maturity.. Its mainly from the warmer fraternity that we get the terms, ill-informed, piss off, dim witted, puerile, etc etc.
If you have an honest look at the approaches around here the only ones that come off as sensible to the layman are the “questioners”.
The full on warmers are almost incoherent.. and just post a gazillion links to stuff that all says the same basic thing.. that is we can find no natural cause for our overestimates of GW so man is to blame. And we are doomed
The full on deniers also get a bit carried away… lets face there is no way that many scientists are completely wrong or part of a giant conspiracy. And there is NO problem.
The questioners on the other hand seem to calmly say.. this AGW stuff doesn’t make sense as it is presented to me. And I think DOOM is a little overstaed.
Well I admit I was trying to push your button a little (soz) it just seems so easy to push !
As far as lacking maturity.. Its mainly from the warmer fraternity that we get the terms, ill-informed, piss off, dim witted, puerile, etc etc.
If you have an honest look at the approaches around here the only ones that come off as sensible to the layman are the “questioners”.
The full on warmers are almost incoherent.. and just post a gazillion links to stuff that all says the same basic thing.. that is we can find no natural cause for our overestimates of GW so man is to blame. And we are doomed
The full on deniers also get a bit carried away… lets face there is no way that many scientists are completely wrong or part of a giant conspiracy. And there is NO problem.
The questioners on the other hand seem to calmly say.. this AGW stuff doesn’t make sense as it is presented to me. And I think DOOM is a little overstaed.
Trakar
Penultimate Amazing
- Joined
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- Messages
- 12,637
Got linkee? I was thinking that those estimates were F not C?
It is NOT going to be a smooth ride, it will be an interesting ride.
I have no doubt of China's will, resources and over riding "must do".
US has actually done okay in sectors.....needs to target coal big time.
Europe is on track anyway as is Japan. Sweden and France far along to carbon neutral.
India will need help and without a command economy or a large warchest - plus the hampering of democratic process..hard to do.
That said - they have brilliant scientists and are gung ho on nuclear and must get into desalination big time.
Oddly Cuba, out of sheer necessity is a model for poor nations to lower fossil dependence.
Don't get me wrong....I'm only cautiously optmistic and think we should look at was IS being accomplished rather than the size of the hill to climb.
Things like the LEEDs Platinum head office for Bank of America, Google's efforts and Portland's total green city program - all positives.
Faint hope but not hopeless.....
Oh, don't get me wrong, all of these steps are definite positives, I just see them as more adaptive measures than true mitigation and reversal steps.