UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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Thanks for your response, Tapio, but I think you're still missing some important aspects of this discussion.

Thanks for addressing this. Maybe I was too vague, or maybe you have no intention at even trying to see this from another perspective than yours. In any case, hoping for the former option I will try to elaborate on what I meant.

I think he is doing an excellent job in bringing forth evidence that supports his belief. I am not congratulating him for bringing forth evidence that supports aliens. See the difference?


Well we certainly know he believes it. Just his carrying on in this thread, the ignorance, the incredulity, the lies, the confirmation bias, the repetition, the false dichotomies, the circular reasoning, the cherry picking, the logical fallacies, the misunderstanding of the scientific method, the misunderstanding of the burden of proof, the misunderstanding of the inequality of hypotheses, they all speak to the fact that he believes aliens exist. If he's just trying to prove he believes it, he succeeded on Page 1.

But it is also his claim that aliens exist, and that his intent is to support his claim with evidence. And no, he hasn't brought forth a single shred of evidence to support that contention.

I feel that regardless how we feel about someone's beliefs, it's always respectable if they succeed in providing evidence which they base their beliefs on. Then, if we think the provided evidence doesn't in some way justify their beliefs, we can comment on it and present our own evidence on which we base our beliefs.


Great. Go to the religion forum if you want to have a philosophical chat. Rramjet has made a claim that aliens exist and that he would be bringing in evidence to support that position. So far he's proven a 100% failure at that effort. It's not about beliefs, at least not until he admits that his position is simply a belief, like faith, unsupportable by evidence.

I agree, partly. I also believe there's a whole lot of misinterpretation and confusing concepts and terminology going on on both 'sides'.


There's one claim, one side. If Rramjet can't communicate well enough to make his point clearly and effectively, that's nobody's fault but his. He's been reminded several times by several people in this thread that he appears to have a reading comprehension problem. I already recommended that he talk to the principal at his high school and check into some remedial reading courses. If he doesn't care to be understood, to follow up on good advice, there's nothing we can do about it.

If you've followed my discussion with him, you know he's not 'buffaloed' me into believing anything. I hope I'm making myself clear, because I feel your attitude coming across as quite hostile. In my opinion he's made a reasonable case to back up his belief, not a case to back up aliens. Am I making myself clear?


Perhaps you perceive my blunt honesty as hostility. Perhaps you think it's hostile of me to call a spade a spade, or in Rramjet's case, call a liar a liar. I assure you I'd like as much as anyone to see him actually cough up the evidence that he claims to have. But when he's arguing from ignorance, you'll likely see me or someone else call him on it, and when he bases his position on his incredulity, someone is bound to catch him at that, too. This is a skeptics' forum, Tapio. You know, if he can't take the heat and all that.

He claimed to have evidence that aliens exist. He didn't claim to have evidence that he believes aliens exist. (I addressed this above.) It might be helpful for you to keep those two concepts separated.

I'm not sure how you hold authority to give judgement on this one from the scientific perspective, but I hope my post has cleared what I mean when I say he's doing a great job.


No authority on science is necessary to realize that arguments from ignorance, incredulity, and lies are fallacies and don't support Rramjet's claim in any way.

You know, it doesn't hurt giving some respect to people even if they don't believe, act or work the way you see as the best way.


Maybe you can save your lecture on respect for the fellow who opened this thread claiming to have evidence that aliens exist, then ignored and lied to people over and over again simply because we're a bunch of skeptics who happen to be just demanding enough to expect him to carry through on his claim. Don't try to make anyone else into the bad guy for not coddling him or humoring him. If he can't support his claim, the honest thing for him to do is admit it.
 
I stated:
So in all that your arguments boil down to – despite admitting to the professionalism of the people involved – is that they COULD have been in error? And you base that judgement on the simple fact that they did not report an error margin? And therefore we must throw the whole thing out?
I never said that. Show me where I say that we should throw the whole thing out.
I guess you did not notice the question mark?

All I have said is that we cannot assess the accuracy without access to the full report, which we don't have. You want to claim this as a highly accurate report, made by experts, but the accuracy is impossible to verify.
…and I put the question mark in because you have cast aspersions on the professionalism of highly trained military personnel, in essence claiming that they could not do the job they were trained to do, but then have not made it clear WHAT conclusions you draw from that.

I stated:
I have not yet presented evidence as to the likely morphology of “aliens”.
Might help if you present evidence for aliens before you speculate on their hair color.
Now I know “morphology” might not be a word in everyday use by most people, but it I think you will find that it is NOT an equivalent term to “hair color”.

This is another “debunker” tactic to avoid confronting the evidence. Twisting the meaning of words to suit their own purposes. As if we don’t have enough trouble defining terms without the debunkers distorting the meaning of common English words.

Actually, it helps people understand why you have such a muddled concept of logic and the burden of proof.
If I claim X – you naturally demand to see evidence of X.
If you claim Y – I naturally demand to see evidence of Y.

THAT is the burden of proof. There is something very peculiar going on here if people cannot understand what common English words and terms of logic mean.

Listen Rramjet. I have posted another possible explanation and I know that you don't like it but I don't understand how you can just handwave it away. That explanation is that the leading scientist and project director evaluated the caputered data from april 27 and found possible sources for errors that hadn't been adequately accounted for. I'm not saying that IT IS SO. It's just one more interpretation.
If you say so then SHOW me where he “found possible sources for errors that hadn't been adequately accounted for” in the data from the 27th.

Again this is what is SO frustrating about trying to put a rational argument to you. I actually think you believe your own unfounded assertions. This is exactly the way cult members operate. They are so immersed in their own belief systems that ANY nonsense or otherwise irrational statement is believed MERELY because it lends support to their faith. Somehow, if an assertion is made, no matter what the veracity of that assertion is, then somehow it MUST be true because it supports the faith.

Exactly. You filmed something but can't tell with resonable accuracy how high it was, how big it was or how fast it was traveling. Then you have a film of something, but no information about it.
But this is pure nonsense. Unadulterated “woo”. It is a version of the “eyewitness’ are fallible” argument, only this time applied to technical equipment. But you apply it as if the whole thing is just a black screen when viewed. That’s just pure, unadulterated nonsense.

…and to highlight just how nonsensical your position is, your very next statement…

The films are a means to an end and I'm pretty sure they got the information they needed in the observations they planned and performed on their rockets.


I stated:
WHAT do the objects so accurately recorded by eminently reliable observers using precise technical equipment suggest to you?
It suggests that they filmed something fast that was passing by high up in the sky. Meteorites and rockets do that f ex.
So now you are saying that highly trained and eminently reliable observers using precise technical equipment in precisely the manner they were trained for and the equipment was meant to be used… suddenly cannot identify meteors or rockets?

You have gone beyond the bounds of rationality.

My question was in response to your continous requests that people should prove it couldn't have been a ballon, cloud, rocket, blimp or whatever. If you have done your research you should be able to say "it could not have been X because of Y and z". You don't do that, you scream PROVE IT to anyone who suggests it could have been something mundane. This indicates that you haven't done what you can to rule out more mundane explanations. Sloppy research imo.
And so we are back to the fallacy of your “burden of proof”. Two points:
First, there was a comprehensive investigation of these objects by qualified researchers that RULED OUT mundane explanations. Unlike you, I rely on the expert researchers, qualified directly in the applicable field of research, to tell me these things so I DON’T have to conduct the research myself.

Second I want you to explain where I have gone wrong in the following logic.

If I claim X – you naturally demand to see evidence of X.
If you claim Y – I naturally demand to see evidence of Y.

But that is exactly what I do. I trust the expertise of the project director, a trained scientist.
But when that person (Elterman) is SHOWN to be in error (demonstrated with supporting evidence to be in error) then how are we to trust his conclusions?

I stated:
Actually, He covered up the data from the 27th. And never mentioned that good data was obtained from that date. So what ARE we supposed to conclude from that?
This has not been shown.
Are you not paying attention? Have you not read the reports? Are you… given the evidence there is simply no rational reason you would have for making such a statement.

And ONE partial triangulation was being made.
There you go again…twisting the language to suit your own faith. Triangulation was achieved. Full stop. There was no “partial” about it.

I stated:
To state that highly trained military analysts failed to account for error margins… especially at a test facility … beggars belief. Do you understand the accuracy it takes to successfully launch a rocket… let alone get it to go where you want it to? No, these people were steeped in accuracy of measurement. The military relied on their accuracy.
This is just ridiculous. We KNOW for a fact that there were must be errors in the initial estimates of height, size and speed.
Ridiculous…? There are error margins in EVERY calculation we make – that does NOT mean we cannot (for example) put men on the moon. To suppose that highly trained experts in analysis do not account for error margins simply beggars belief.

We therefor still have two options:

1. The project director lied and covered up the data from april 27. Noone noticed.
2. The project director examined the data from april 27 and decided that it was not acurate enough to draw any conclusions from.
1. But people DID notice! People HAVE noticed! WE have noticed!
2. So now we have the “project director” not able to trust in the accuracy of his own personnel? Do you even understand the implications of your assertions?

Rramjet, If my memory serves me right, you have been explaining from point one that you believe there might be aspects of 'the natural world' humans have yet no knowledge of. Am I correct?

That is a partial conception. Yes, there are many things about the natural world we do not understand… but it goes deeper than that… I argue at a more fundamental level. That is, I contend that there are things about the nature of reality itself that we do not understand

You have come to the conclusion that amongst many of the kind, the White Sand sightings may point towards some of these aspects. Am I correct?
Yes.

No, it isn't. It's you NOT understanding the concept of burden of proof. I'm sorry if you don't, but it frankly isn't my problem.

I'll shoot back with my previous example about shadows:

I wake up in the middle of the night and see a man-shaped shadow in the room. I freak out, eventually fall back to sleep, and then come to the JREF forum ranting about CIA people in my bedroom. That's claim X. The skeptics here will reason that there is no evidence for my claim, and rightly so. They say it was probably just a shadow. That's claim Y.

Do you REALLY think that they need to PROVE that it's a shadow ?
No, your claim (and the claim of the debunkers here) is that mundane natural events explain the sightings. I merely demand evidence for those claims. Very simple, logical and (seemingly) straightforward a request. Yet you cannot fulfil that request. Why not?

I stated:
In short - hypocrisy. And this coming from a self proclaimed spokesperson for this thread. What a hoot!
Strawman. I have never made such a claim.
Then look carefully at the bold text in your quote:

(…) As such it is not required for us to convince you; only to show that it could be such an explanation. If you refuse to accept the evidence or the explanations, that seriously isn't our problem. (…)
Hoisted on your own petard.
 
I wonder why evidence of aliens is to be presented on the JREF forum and not to SETI or other, more relevant body?

It is forthcoming, right?

And as have been pointed out repeatedly, if you claim something is a ufo the burden of proof is on you.
 
Oh, while taking about fighters chasing UFOs, I wonder why this story
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ufo_briefingdocument/1986a.htm
http://www.ufologie.net/htm/brazil86.htm
Is not within Rramjet's favorites.

Ten aviation nerd points for the first poster to indicate a given aircraft-related problem on the report.

Okay. Thanks for the tip. And you know something...I think I will add it to my "favourites". What you probably don't know is that in recent weeks the Brazilian government has made a major data dump. This has been reported by A.J. Gaevard of Brazil (the Brazilian National MUFON Director).

Perhaps then you would like to view the official documentation on the sighting you reference? Seems like a pretty GOOD case to me...

Brazilian UFO Night (19 May 1986)
(http://www.ufo.com.br/documentos/night/Occurrence Report - Translated.pdf)

And more general discussion of the recent releases can be found at:
(http://www.ufocasebook.com/brazilianairforceadmits.html)
(http://www.allnewsweb.com/page9299893.php)
(http://www.cohenufo.org/BrazilianUFODocumentsReleased.htm)
(http://www.ufodigest.com/news/0909/declassified.php)

Do let me know what you think.

And Tapio - here is a more "recent" case for you.
 
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I wonder why evidence of aliens is to be presented on the JREF forum and not to SETI or other, more relevant body?

It is forthcoming, right?

And as have been pointed out repeatedly, if you claim something is a ufo the burden of proof is on you.

And by the same token, if YOU claim something is mundane, then the burden of proof is on you.

And SETI? I believe the whole thing is a waste of time and money. It relies on far too many unfounded assumptions to ever have a realistic chance at success - even if there were "aliens out there".

It is a "distraction", sucking money and resources and intellectual captital away from any true scientific investigation that might be conducted with what we have right here already.

Interesting though - I get the sense that the debunkers actually support SETI? Perhaps it is because their GURU Sagan supported it? Perhaps also the debunkers, realising it is a pure folly, are quite happy to see resources wasted in such a fashion?

Not that I have anything against Sagan per se... he did much good in popularising the "cosmos" - it is just that the debunkers then seem to take his statements on everything as gospel (and we already know the fallacy of the "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence) [Edited in as a clarification of my position]
 
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And by the same token, if YOU claim something is mundane, then the burden of proof is on you.
But what if I am just asking questions, like "could that UFO be a blimp, or maybe a weather balloon"?:)
 
And by the same token, if YOU claim something is mundane, then the burden of proof is on you.
Can you even look yourself in the mirror? Throughout this debate you have been yelling if a event or object is can't be positively identified that it indicates aliens. That is a pretty strong claim, as it disregards the unknown mundane. And you have yet to fill the burden of proof for that in every case.
 
Hoisted on your own petard.
firstly the expression is "hoist by your own petard"
secondly if you knew what it meant you'd realise its far more appropriate for your posts than anyone elses
still at this point in the thread I don't expect anyones expecting too much reality from you, so you might get away with it
:p
 
But what if I am just asking questions, like "could that UFO be a blimp, or maybe a weather balloon"?:)

And what id I am just asking questions also? Like "Could that UFO be an alien craft"?

You see...no matter how frame it, any claim requires evidence to support it. Yous, mine, everyone's, big or small, without fear or favour.
 
Can you even look yourself in the mirror? Throughout this debate you have been yelling if a event or object is can't be positively identified that it indicates aliens. That is a pretty strong claim, as it disregards the unknown mundane. And you have yet to fill the burden of proof for that in every case.

So your contention is that we can explain the unknown with reference to the unknown? That's just irrational. "I don't know what it is, but I can explain by stating it might be something that I don't know"!?

Yelling? No, just suggesting that perhaps that is where the evidence takes us - because we can find - even after extensive research with the knowledge we have today - no plausible mundane explanation. That's all.
 
Amusing - he starts the thread claiming evidence of aliens, then has to ask for what the term means.
just kidding - I know he's just being a smartass and has a definition already prepared.
Aliens = Unknown or Unidentified.
 
…and I put the question mark in because you have cast aspersions on the professionalism of highly trained military personnel, in essence claiming that they could not do the job they were trained to do, but then have not made it clear WHAT conclusions you draw from that.
What aspersions? I repeat, I am not saying that they didn't know how to do their jobs, because we have no data on which to base any opinion about that, we only have a short note and someone else's assessment of that short note. The assessment that other person made is extremely badly done, full of mistakes.

I simply note that the base report we have does not include errors, which I'm sure were in the original full length report. I'm just saying that without those errors it is impossible to assess the accuracy of the data. Those professionals that you place so much stock in may have assigned large errors to the data, or they may have given it small errors, but we just don't know. Without that information we have nothing reliable, and certainly nothing conclusive.

I also note that you ignored the rest of my post, which dealt with why your attempt to make my assessment look bad was so inaccurate.
 
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