UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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But it is YOU are "on to this again".

YOU stated "All that has to be shown is that any natural phenomenon could have caused it."

If it is that easy - THEN SHOW IT.

Here's a tip, Ramjet: you are not the authority, here. As such it is not required for us to convince you; only to show that it could be such an explanation. If you refuse to accept the evidence or the explanations, that seriously isn't our problem. So, if you think you being pig-headed shifts the burden of proof to us, you're in for a dissapointment.
 
Tapio, I appreciate that you want to give Rramjet a fair shot at making his case. However, you do neither him nor yourself any favours by being so unfamiliar with his claims as to accuse other people of setting up strawmen.

Could you please also read (maybe quote) the post(s) where he has defined what he means by 'alien'. Thanks!

From this it's quite clear that he considers all this as evidence of alien activities. I notice with interest that he's backed away slightly from that and now use "indications" of something alien instead of "evidence" but he definately doesn't claim to know their size or colour.

Agreed. He's at no point (please correct me if I'm wrong) stated he has any concrete evidence of aliens (parts of ship, ET flesh etc.). It's all only evidence that points towards (that is, indications of) alien presence...see the difference? I think the changed wording hasn't changed his original claim.
 
Could you please also read (maybe quote) the post(s) where he has defined what he means by 'alien'. Thanks!
Could you please also explain how that will change him not having offered evidence for aliens? Thanks!
 
Of course... but can you? Here’s a clue:
Enter Dr. Louis Elterman, a well known atmospheric physicist. Elterman was known for using powerful searchlights to study the upper atmosphere (density, dust loading, etc.). He also wrote a report on ball lightning for Project Grudge, the second Air Force project to collect and analyze flying saucer sightings, so he obviously knew the official opinion of the Air Force on flying saucers, namely that there weren't/aren't any. (The Project Grudge personnel did not look favorably on saucer reports.)

I guess that by quoting this you mean that part of his job was to draw a thick blanket over any and all evidence that would surface during the investigation?

In his report (http://www.project1947.com/gfb/twinklereport.htm) he stated:

2. Contractual period - 1 April 1950 to 15 September 1950.
Some photographic activity occurred on 27 April and 24 May, but simultaneous sightings by both cameras were not made, so that no information was gained. On 30 August 1950, during a Bell aircraft missile launching, aerial phenomena were observed over Holloman Air Force Base by several individuals; however, neither Land-Air nor Project personnel were notified and, therefore, no results were acquired. On 31 August 1950, the phenomena were again observed after a V-2 launching. Although much film was expended, proper triangulation was not effected, so that again no information was acquired.

Now in these assessments WE KNOW he is just plain wrong (or did he cover up the evidence?). How can we trust his conclusions when he is either ignoring or covering up the evidence (that we all know exists!) as presented by the observers and the analysts?

There is a difference between filming something and gaining information (bolding above mine). He is giving his professional opinion.

ETA: I would also like to add that during this whole project (1 year), only partial data was aquired at only ONE occasion. Just wanted to point that out since it sounds like it was a lot more dramatic when reading your posts.
Oh no, you are incorrect, Many observations were made, many objects were filmed, however satisfactory triangulation was achieved only one occasion, 27th April.

That is what I am saying. You are confusing observing and filming with aquisition of data. And (partial) data was aquired only once according to the reports available, on april 27, 1950.
 
Well, no natural explanation could be found. The objects were 150,000 feet up! They had a clearly defined, size and as Dr. Maccabee states in his report “…something was there, obviously large, fast and unusual or the camera crews wouldn’t have bothered to film it! If it wasn’t “natural” and it wasn’t “us”, then what do YOU make of it…dies it “suggest” anything to you?

I'm not so sure I'd call Dr. Maccabee's writings a "report" but I definately won't take his arguments from incredulity for fact.

If you present a plausible natural explanation - then I will of course consider the evidence. But as you CANNOT do so, then what is your point? Just because you say something, does not make it true. Just because you SAY that there is a natural explanation, does not make it true.

Forgive me for asking but since you are so interested in these phenomena, why haven't you conducted this research so that you can rule out more mundane explanations? I'm just assuming that you haven't done that research because I figure that you would present it if you had it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Here's another report on the april 27 and may 24 photosessions:
On two occasions objects were photographed with Askania theodolites, once on 27 April 1950 and again on 29 May 1950. The results were not satisfactory, however, and no data could be obtained because in the first instance only one station was tracking and in the second instance two stations tracked two different objects.
http://www.bluebookarchive.org/page....NARA-PBB85-612

But we KNOW this to be an erroneous assessment! We have the report!

no data could be obtained. I refer you to Wollerys post for a thorough explanation of why that would be the conclusion.

it would be fishy if they pretended to an EXACT figure. “Approximately” is admitting to a margin of error.

How large was it?

“Threw out data on the run”? Now you are just making things up. A typical “debunker” trick of casting aspersions when there is absolutely NO evidence to support the contention.
Translation: They didn't get any valuable data on may 24

So what… are you really contending they did not know the distance between their camera positions? You really ARE grasping at straws… even when there is no evidence a straw is actually there for you to grasp!

No, he's not saying that. He's saying that WE can't know and if we can't, we can't check it.
 
I am just a bit confused. Your skeptical colleagues have repeatedly asserted eyewitness testimony is of no value whatsoever because of its unreliability, but you're arguing that age related eyewitness testimony is of little value over recent eyewitness testimony.

This then, is a prime example of the inherent problem of standards, of which I posted very early in this thread.

Either the skeptics agree that eyewitness testimony is acceptable as a component of the standard, or its not.

What will it be? When you agree, let us know please. At least then we'll know what rules we're using.
Well, it seems you somehow built a false dichotomy here... I and my "skeptical colleagues" (whose company I do appreciate) state that eyewitnesses reports are usually unreliable; such evidence must be corroborated by additional data, such as imagery, for example.

Unreliable is different from no value. Check Rogue River, for example- the descriptions have inconsistencies and the whole event can be labelled inconclusive at best when it comes down to being evidence of some vehicle not built by humans(*). Their descriptions can either be interpreted as a misidentified blimp or as some unknown aerial vehicle (among other options). In this particular case, the "value" is comes from multiple eyewitnesses and the indication that something weird was seen. But these particular testimonies are not accurate enough in order to allow a definitive ID(**) of what was seen. Thus, unreliable, they do not have too much weight when it comes down to scientific standards of evidence. You may feel it is, as evidence, good enough for you, for your personal standards; but it will fail if the bar is set higher, at scientific standards.

See the difference?

Now, do you agree that its usually harder to investigate an UFO case from the 50's than a case say, from the 90's? Do you agree the UFO from the 50's will most likely be a cold case and its unlikely that new evidence will surface?

(*) It doesn't mean both hypothesis have the same plausibility level.
(**) Maybe if it were accurate enough the result would be a blimp.
 
Rramjet, this is all very easy. It now boils down to two differing theories:

1. The project director lied and covered up the data from april 27. Noone noticed.
2. The project director examined the data from april 27 and decided that it was not acurate enough to draw any conclusions from.

It remains a UFO.
 
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Could you please also explain how that will change him not having offered evidence for aliens? Thanks!

You know, I think I'm beginning to understand why there's been so much of a conflict between the way Rramjet and other posters express what I believe to be essentially the same thing.

If you were to go back to the post(s) where Rramjet describes what he means by 'alien' and add it up with what he seems to mean by 'evidence', I believe you would not be asking for him to bring out 'little green buggers' (though now I understand you meant it as somewhat of a joke). I believe Rramjet is doing a great job in bringing forth evidence he considers as indicating (evidence for) aliens (for he sees 'alien' as the only option left after taking into account all available evidence). And I think that's enough. It doesn't mean he actually has evidence for aliens. He hasn't claimed that (if you take into account the whole thread instead of one sentence). He has only claimed he has evidence which he concludes to point towards aliens. And so he is trying to convince the rest of us that his conclusion is 'right'.

Alas, I believe there to be such a big conflict between Rramjet's standards and what most posters here would agree to be evidence, that it's hard to see any agreement to come out of this discussion. Even if it lasted for another 37 pages...

But let's not get stuck in this, ok? We're on the same side :).
 
Wow Tapio. I didn't know you guys east of us were this nice and sensitive. As far as we know in sweden you fight with knifes while consuming inordinate amounts of vodka ;)

I agree with you, no point in poking it with a stick just cause it's funny. But frustration sometimes...ya know ;)
 
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Now, do you agree that its usually harder to investigate an UFO case from the 50's than a case say, from the 90's? Do you agree the UFO from the 50's will most likely be a cold case and its unlikely that new evidence will surface?
...

I would really prefer that Rramjet pull something more current from his bag o' links. I would love to discuss something where there actually IS some evidence and not just a collection of anecdotes. Even though it will likely be poor evidence or evidence of something mundane that has been misidentified.

I am noting it interesting that such UFO stories really did not bloom until the 1950s. Why aren't there as many UFO anecdotes from say the 1850s? or 1910s? Seems to me to be a case of reports increasing following the advent of a popular media format...
 
Wow Tapio. I didn't know you guys east of us were this nice and sensitive. As far as we know in sweden you fight with knifes while consuming inordinate amounts of vodka ;)

Good one, mate! Men jag är en olik finne :)

I agree with you, no point in poking it with a stick just cause it's funny. But frustration sometimes...ya know ;)

I understand completely. Maybe it's just that there's such a little time from my own days of believing all sorts of strange stuff...I can still somehow relate to Rramjet's position (not meaning I agree with his conclusions though)...
 
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No, it would be fishy if they pretended to an EXACT figure. “Approximately” is admitting to a margin of error.
But how large a margin of error? If I submitted a paper for peer review that said "Star X5412 is approximately 27 light years away" and no error estimate on that distance it would be returned in short order with a scathing referee's report. That's what we have here - no estimate of the error on the distance. If it's 5% then great, but what if it's 25%, or 50%? Without that value it's impossible to judge just how reliable the data is.

What? Obviously they knew because for May 24 sighting they realised in that case they were NOT viewing the same object(s). Remember, these are highly skilled people doing exactly what they were trained to do – to make exactly the type of observations they did.
This is not an absolute guarantee, but it does weigh in their favour. Remember, they were experienced at taking observations of rockets, fired one at a time, at a prearranged time, and in a prearranged direction. But, as I say, I'm willing to concede that they almost certainly did make observations of the same object.

“Threw out data on the run”? Now you are just making things up. A typical “debunker” trick of casting aspersions when there is absolutely NO evidence to support the contention.
They report no results for the April sighting because they couldn't be sure that they were observing the same object from two stations. For that reason they discarded the data from the April observations. I cast no aspersions, I merely gave them the benefit of the doubt for the May observations due to the fact that they treated the uncertain data from April in the correct manner.

Items 2 to 4 talk about the same thing, “inaccurate” camera resolution calculations and yet you conclude: “It is of course impossible to know, because we have no details of this other than the conclusions, which lack an error estimate.” I thought you stated that “measuring distance by triangulation is something I happen to know a hell of a lot about.” !!! So what was all that blather about then in “points” 1 to 4? MERE speculation NOT based on ANY data! (shrugs and shakes head in disbelief)
Take a course in reading comprehension. Seriously.

Item 2 is about the report's obviously bad maths. Item 3 is about the lack of consideration in the pixel size estimate of the ground distance between the object and the observation post. Item 4 merely points out that if one observing station was close enough to obtain reasonable data for the size then the other was not, meaning that confirmation of the size from the other station is difficult, at the very least.

Moreover, It is disingenuous to “pretend” to make separate points in an effort to fool your readers into thinking you have more points that you actually do!
Each one is a separate issue - bad maths, failing to take a factor into account, and lack of ability to confirm findings.

So what… are you really contending they did not know the distance between their camera positions? You really ARE grasping at straws… even when there is no evidence a straw is actually there for you to grasp!
No, I expect they knew the distance between their cameras down to the meter, I'd be really worried if they didn't. But we aren't told which observation posts they are, so we can't assess how near to the object the posts that took the images were. That means that we can't assess the accuracy of the reported altitude or size that are given. And we also can't confirm the pixel sizes of the images.

This is just utter nonsense. Again I repeat: I thought you stated “measuring distance by triangulation is something I happen to know a hell of a lot about.” …and yet now you are telling us that you don’t know how to synchronise cameras at different locations without a rocket being launched? Pure bunk. Pure unadulterated “woo”.
I never said I didn't know how to, and I never said they didn't either, but error in timing can occur. These errors can lead to errors in the distance estimate. Without knowing any more about their methods we can't assess how accurate their timing synchronisation was. That's all I'm saying.

You take your readers for fools Wollery, and I assure you, they are not.
I'm merely pointing out possible sources of error. Since you claim to know and understand the scientific method and the history and philosophy of science I thought that you would at least appreciate the point of doing that.

They offer no error estimate for the one and only data point that they give, which calls into doubt their findings. And before you fly into apoplectic rage about me saying that they have only one data point, that is all they have. Their size estimates are entirely dependent on the altitude estimate, and they only have one altitude estimate. With no associated error. Hardly conclusive.
 
Wollery said:
error in timing can occur. These errors can lead to errors in the distance estimate. Without knowing any more about their methods we can't assess how accurate their timing synchronisation was. That's all I'm saying.

Exactly. And, adding to that, we know that the theodolites involved were engaged in other projects at the time of the observation. If they were working on different projects they would not necessarily be required to be in sync with each other. But, we have no way of knowing:

The sightings were made by Land-Air, Inc., personnel while engaged in tracking regular projects with Askania Phototheodolites.
http://www.nicap.org/ncp/ncp-brumac.htm

Note "projects" in plural.
 
You know, I think I'm beginning to understand why there's been so much of a conflict between the way Rramjet and other posters express what I believe to be essentially the same thing.

If you were to go back to the post(s) where Rramjet describes what he means by 'alien' and add it up with what he seems to mean by 'evidence', I believe you would not be asking for him to bring out 'little green buggers' (though now I understand you meant it as somewhat of a joke). I believe Rramjet is doing a great job in bringing forth evidence he considers as indicating (evidence for) aliens (for he sees 'alien' as the only option left after taking into account all available evidence). And I think that's enough. It doesn't mean he actually has evidence for aliens. He hasn't claimed that (if you take into account the whole thread instead of one sentence). He has only claimed he has evidence which he concludes to point towards aliens. And so he is trying to convince the rest of us that his conclusion is 'right'.

Alas, I believe there to be such a big conflict between Rramjet's standards and what most posters here would agree to be evidence, that it's hard to see any agreement to come out of this discussion. Even if it lasted for another 37 pages...

But let's not get stuck in this, ok? We're on the same side :).

What do you think he means by "scientist" when he refers to himself as one?
 
What do you think he means by "scientist" when he refers to himself as one?

What he actually means is beyond my imagination...

I'm personally inclined to think it's as someone here already speculated...not a scientist as we might imagine...perhaps he's specialized in UFOlogy with published work in the appropriate para-zines (actually his conduct is very similar to that of the 'frontmen of the paranormal research' in Finland). If it's not so, I have no idea whatsoever of why he wouldn't want to give out any clues to his education and area of expertise (which would probably only help his case).
 
Here's a tip, Ramjet: you are not the authority, here. As such it is not required for us to convince you; only to show that it could be such an explanation. If you refuse to accept the evidence or the explanations, that seriously isn't our problem. So, if you think you being pig-headed shifts the burden of proof to us, you're in for a dissapointment.
…and you still don’t get it do you… the sheer hypocrisy of your position?

If I claim X… you naturally demand to see evidence of X. And If I don’t provide it you shout loudly to the world “See, he cannot provide evidence for his assertions!”

But if YOU claim Y …and I naturally demand to see evidence for Y… you then say, “Oh I don’t have to provide it… it merely IS because I say it is!”

That is “woo” at the HIGHEST level my friend. In short - hypocrisy. And this coming from a self proclaimed spokesperson for this thread. What a hoot!

Could you please also read (maybe quote) the post(s) where he has defined what he means by 'alien'. Thanks!

Agreed. He's at no point (please correct me if I'm wrong) stated he has any concrete evidence of aliens (parts of ship, ET flesh etc.). It's all only evidence that points towards (that is, indications of) alien presence...see the difference? I think the changed wording hasn't changed his original claim.
My definition of alien (oft now repeated) might help.

An “alien” is “An intelligent agent acting outside the bounds of what we would commonly take to be the limits of the natural world”.

I have not yet presented evidence as to the likely morphology of “aliens”. ;)

I am as yet merely trying to establish that there are things observed that simply cannot be rationally or plausibly explained in mundane or “natural” terms. Rogue River is a good case because there is no known “mundane” explanation the fits the evidence (including blimps – which I think people actually know, but are simply “in denial” over). The second “good” case is the White Sands case. Here we have absolutely unimpeachable evidence by anyone’s standards. But of course “evidence” and logical argument will always be the loser when it comes up against articles of faith.

Perhaps you should read up on Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance Theory.

I guess that by quoting this you mean that part of his job was to draw a thick blanket over any and all evidence that would surface during the investigation?
No, not at all. What I am pointing out is that Elterman either ignored the evidence or he covered it up. Either way, we can no longer trust his conclusions on the matter. It is as simple as that. Simply, his own words show his assessments to be in error. THEN , if we add that to his debunking history, I simply then leave the reader to draw his/her own conclusions.

There is a difference between filming something and gaining information (bolding above mine). He is giving his professional opinion.

So you contend that capturing the objects on film does not constitute information… I am sure your conclusion would startle the White Sands command who relied on the films of their rockets to assess their functionality...

…and “his professional opinion”? Well, if HE is representative of military professionalism – being in obvious error in his summary reporting of the incidents – then I fear for us all!

That is what I am saying. You are confusing observing and filming with aquisition of data. And (partial) data was aquired only once according to the reports available, on april 27, 1950.

Again, the White sands command would be startled to learn that their filming of their rocket and missile test was all for naught because (according to you) a film does not constitute data!

I'm not so sure I'd call Dr. Maccabee's writings a "report" but I definately won't take his arguments from incredulity for fact.

You don’t have to. Go back to basics. The original reports.

You have not answered my question? WHAT do the objects so accurately recorded by eminently reliable observers using precise technical equipment suggest to you?

Forgive me for asking but since you are so interested in these phenomena, why haven't you conducted this research so that you can rule out more mundane explanations? I'm just assuming that you haven't done that research because I figure that you would present it if you had it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

WHAT mundane explanations? Can you provide any plausible mundane explanations? No, I did not think so.

no data could be obtained. I refer you to Wollerys post for a thorough explanation of why that would be the conclusion.

But we KNOW this to be an erroneous statement. Wollery has taken us all for fools. His statement are supported by NO evidence and have been shown by me to be complete nonsense…

in reference to the error margin
How large was it?

It was small enough for professional analysts, whose job depended on accuracy, to quote a figure.

Translation: They didn't get any valuable data on may 24

That’s just a red herring thrown in a vain effort to avoid talking about what they DID get on the 27th

No, he's not saying that. He's saying that WE can't know and if we can't, we can't check it.

So what you are saying is that you don’t trust the trained experts, whose job relies on accuracy at the highest level, to have done the job they were trained to do?

Rramjet, this is all very easy. It now boils down to two differing theories:

1. The project director lied and covered up the data from april 27. Noone noticed.
2. The project director examined the data from april 27 and decided that it was not acurate enough to draw any conclusions from.

It remains a UFO.
Actually, He covered up the data from the 27th. And never mentioned that good data was obtained from that date. So what ARE we supposed to conclude from that?

…actually MORE than one.. up to 8 or more were filmed for starters.

But how large a margin of error? (…)Without that value it's impossible to judge just how reliable the data is. (…)But we aren't told which observation posts they are, so we can't assess how near to the object the posts that took the images were. That means that we can't assess the accuracy of the reported altitude or size that are given. And we also can't confirm the pixel sizes of the images. (…) …but error in timing can occur. These errors can lead to errors in the distance estimate. Without knowing any more about their methods we can't assess how accurate their timing synchronisation was. (…)They offer no error estimate for the one and only data point that they give, which calls into doubt their findings. (…)With no associated error. Hardly conclusive.


So in all that your arguments boil down to – despite admitting to the professionalism of the people involved – is that they COULD have been in error? And you base that judgement on the simple fact that they did not report an error margin? And therefore we must throw the whole thing out?

You forget, this was a summary report of their conclusions to their superiors. It was not meant as a peer-reviewed scientific submission. They simply conveyed their conclusions in the most succinct of terms. I have no doubt if you went back to their calculations you would find factors for the margins of error. To state that highly trained military analysts failed to account for error margins… especially at a test facility … beggars belief. Do you understand the accuracy it takes to successfully launch a rocket… let alone get it to go where you want it to? No, these people were steeped in accuracy of measurement. The military relied on their accuracy.
 
Good question!

I am not at all sure what it was (the objects were). All I know is that there was something flying around up there that "WE" did not put there. So that leaves us very little room to maneuver. I say it is suggestive of "aliens" (remember: "Intelligent agencies operating outside the bounds of what we commonly accept to be the limits of the natural world) and I believe it is just another data point that supports that contention... one among many.


And there, again, you demonstrate that your argument is from ignorance and incredulity. The fact that you can't possibly imagine that "we" put it there does not lend any support to the reality of the situation. It only lends support to what you can or can't imagine.

In order for you to actually support your claim that "we" did not put it there, in a legitimately scientific way, you'd have to demonstrate objectively and unambiguously that it was not any conceivable thing we could have put there. And since your personal incredulity is useless as evidence, you haven't even remotely begun to do that yet.

The alternative, of course, is for you to demonstrate objectively and unambiguously that it actually was some sort of alien operated craft (or whatever your bizarre claim might be today). And since you admit right at the beginning of that paragraph that you don't have the slightest idea what it actually was, it's pretty certain you're not going to be able to do that.

So that leaves you exactly where you were almost 1500 posts ago, relying exclusively on your argument from ignorance, incredulity, and lies. And it leaves us where we were, too, asking you if you intend to ever actually support your contention with any legitimate evidence, or if your ignorance, incredulity, and lies is all you've got. I think the answer to that is quite clear to everyone except you, Rramjet.
 
Exactly. And, adding to that, we know that the theodolites involved were engaged in other projects at the time of the observation. If they were working on different projects they would not necessarily be required to be in sync with each other. But, we have no way of knowing:

Note "projects" in plural.

This is mere grasping at straws to avoid facing the evidence.

The observers were highly trained in the use of their instruments. They HAD to be. The military relied on the accuracy of their observations. I was essential to the military that they were accurate.

Yet here you are claiming that they did not know how to understand some of the most basic functionality of their own equipment. Seriously... take a step back and try to look at your "arguments" as an outsider would.
 
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