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How do you guys explain really bizarre cases of synchronicity?

Rodney said:
Yes. Now can you accept the fact that everyone on earth can flip coins the rest of their lives and that -- barring the paranormal or trickery -- no one will ever throw 1000 heads in a row?
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I find the 1000 heads in a row as equally unlikely as any other combinbation of 1000 tosses. It is just the same thing as 20 if nominated before the event, except with hugely larger odds.

However the two teapots, or my (much) earlier story on this thread of finding the name of a movie by closing my eyes, opening a book, pointing, and actually pointing to the specific movie my daughter and I were discussing, have much smaller odds.

But it's a bit like the infinite number of monkeys banging away for an infinite time eventually typing Hamlet. Possible, highly unlikely, and definately not synchrosity - just very long odds.

Norm
 
Rodney said:
Yes. Now can you accept the fact that everyone on earth can flip coins the rest of their lives and that -- barring the paranormal or trickery -- no one will ever throw 1000 heads in a row?
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No. There is a minuscule chance it will happen. It could very well happen on the first try but then you'd claim is was magic.
 
Rodney said:
I don't say that 20 consecutive heads would necessarily be a synchronicity -- it might just be a loaded coin (or some other trickery)
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I'm quite sure I specified an honest coin--if not this time, I have in the past.

or an unlikely outcome (1 in 1,048,576).
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Yes--the same as any other 20 toss combination. You can't distinguish a "significant or meaningful" result from on that is not based on the long odds.

However, if 1000 consecutive heads were thrown, you can rule out an unlikely outcome (1 in 1.07e+301) because it's just too improbable to happen even once in all of history. So, in that circumstance you would be down to either trickery or a paranormal event.
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That doesn't logically follow. It would not require either trickery (especially if we specify that it's an honest coin, which isn't that hard to ascertain) or a paranormal event. In fact, if we ascertain that there is no trickery, then you just have to accept that it's merely a highly improbable event. If you tossed a coin trillions of trillions of times you would indeed expect to get a run of 1000 heads at some point. It's no more or less likely than any other sequence of 1000 results. So why would it be more significant or meaningful than any other outcome?

On the other hand, your "equally improbable outcome" is a true example of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.
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That doesn't even make sense. Your claiming that one of many equally improbable outcomes is somehow meaningful or significant based on the odds alone is an example of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

So, if the reason one outcome is synchronicity but another is not isn't due to the long odds, then why is it?

You already ceded that it's not simply because someone ascribes meaning to an otherwise meaningless event.

So why is it?
 
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Rodney said:
Yes. Now can you accept the fact that everyone on earth can flip coins the rest of their lives and that -- barring the paranormal or trickery -- no one will ever throw 1000 heads in a row?
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No. That's a false statement. Just because the odds against are even greater does not mean the event is impossible. Given enough tosses, such a result would be expected. In fact, that's exactly what the term "the odds" refers to: the probability of an event happening. If that probability is not zero, then given enough tries, we would indeed expect that event to happen.

ETA: If I figured it right, we would expect to get a run of 1000 heads once for every ~10301 times you toss a coin. That means the ratio of 1:10301 is close to zero, but greater than zero. So nothing impossible about it. No need for a paranormal explanation.
 
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By definition, it isn't synchronicity if the specific condition (1000 heads in a row) is specified ahead of time.
 
LissaLysikan said:
By definition, it isn't synchronicity if the specific condition (1000 heads in a row) is specified ahead of time.
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I was going to say this, too, but also add it isn't sychronicity if there isn't emotions involved. Sychronicity is, by definition, a series of improbable events that has meaning to the person experiencing those events. For instance, when I'm in a good mood (which does happen once in a while) I may notice I catch all green lights from one end of town to another (a meaningless coincidence), find the parking space closest to the door open (another meaningless coincidence) and then I walk right up to an empty cashier when other lanes are 2-3 people deep (another meaningless coincidence) then find a dollar on the ground outside my car. Now I can say "wow, my good mood has put me in synch with the universe and thus I have sychronicity." Flipping a coin a thousand times trying to get heads to come up 10 times in a row is just probability, and doesn't have the emotional element that sychronicity is supposed to have.

Sychronicity is more about the emotional response and less about the probability.
 
Starthinker said:
I was going to say this, too, but also add it isn't sychronicity if there isn't emotions involved. Sychronicity is, by definition, a series of improbable events that has meaning to the person experiencing those events. For instance, when I'm in a good mood (which does happen once in a while) I may notice I catch all green lights from one end of town to another (a meaningless coincidence), find the parking space closest to the door open (another meaningless coincidence) and then I walk right up to an empty cashier when other lanes are 2-3 people deep (another meaningless coincidence) then find a dollar on the ground outside my car. Now I can say "wow, my good mood has put me in synch with the universe and thus I have sychronicity." Flipping a coin a thousand times trying to get heads to come up 10 times in a row is just probability, and doesn't have the emotional element that sychronicity is supposed to have.

Sychronicity is more about the emotional response and less about the probability.
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I'm sure that Jung would agree with you that there is an emotional component to synchronicity. But, if someone did throw a fair coin 1,000 times and obtained all heads, would you say that it was more likely to be a coincidence or that something paranormal took place?
 
The OP is about synchronicity, not general paranormal events. Should someone actually show they can get 1000 heads in a row on a fair coin they could become a millionaire rather quickly.
 
Rodney said:
I'm sure that Jung would agree with you that there is an emotional component to synchronicity. But, if someone did throw a fair coin 1,000 times and obtained all heads, would you say that it was more likely to be a coincidence or that something paranormal took place?
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I would say it has nothing to do with sychronicity.
 
In my opinion, if someone claimed ahead of time that they could flip a coin 1000 times and get always heads or tails.. and I could provide the coin and be certain it was a legitimate coin, and control all the circumstances and location to be sure there was no trickery.. then I would be open minded to looking into it more deeply.

However, it would still fall on the person in question to be able to explain how it works and why, and to be able to replicate it and demonstrate it's truth beyond doubt through rigorous test studies. It would not automatically be "supernatural". They'd have to demonstrate that they were doing something completely out of the ordinary, and exactly how they were doing so. Whether it be calling on some special powers, whatever nonsense they claim. They have to back it up.

Otherwise they don't understand it better than anyone else. And it could be due to reasons they can't currently account for or explain.

Something happens that we can't currently explain is not automatically supernatural.
 
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Rodney said:
... But, if someone did throw a fair coin 1,000 times and obtained all heads, would you say that it was more likely to be a coincidence or that something paranormal took place?
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I would say it was more likely that the coin or the thrower was in fact not fair.

However, if further tests demonstrated that it was fair, then I would say that it was more likely to be a coincidence ...

That said, your example is absurd . If a paranormal mechanism that makes coin tosses come up heads exists, it should be fairly easy to get any number of much lower instances, say 25 or 50 heads in a row..

If you could show that, I would have to concede something paranormal is taking place, and someone would be $1m richer...
 
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Rodney said:
Please inform me when that happens.
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No. The burden is on you to show that it's not possible through ordinary causes and random coincidence. You're the one making the extraordinary claim (that if this happened, it's either through trickery or a paranormal event).

As I keep saying, 1000 heads in a row is no more or less improbable than any other 1000 toss result (even one that shows no apparent pattern). So what makes you think one is meaningful and one is not?

You can't use the low probability, because, as I keep saying, that's just the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy since the odds of any other 1000 result outcome is exactly the same.

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Starthinker said:
I was going to say this, too, but also add it isn't sychronicity if there isn't emotions involved. Sychronicity is, by definition, a series of improbable events that has meaning to the person experiencing those events. For instance, when I'm in a good mood (which does happen once in a while) I may notice I catch all green lights from one end of town to another (a meaningless coincidence), find the parking space closest to the door open (another meaningless coincidence) and then I walk right up to an empty cashier when other lanes are 2-3 people deep (another meaningless coincidence) then find a dollar on the ground outside my car. Now I can say "wow, my good mood has put me in synch with the universe and thus I have sychronicity." Flipping a coin a thousand times trying to get heads to come up 10 times in a row is just probability, and doesn't have the emotional element that sychronicity is supposed to have.

Sychronicity is more about the emotional response and less about the probability.
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Then would you agree that there is nothing inherently meaningful or significant about the event?

That is, by your take, synchronicity is nothing more than a sort of pareidolia--seeing a pattern where none exists, or, as I prefer to call it a Type I error (a false positive)?

ETA: That is, believing that random events means you are "in synch with the universe" is about the same as seeing Jesus in the random marks on a tortilla. The marks or events are meaningless. Meaning is (wrongly) imposed by the human mind, which as I've pointed out has evolved to have the capacity and tendency to infer intention and significance even when it's not there.
 
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Perhaps the mystical experience is defined by the willingness of the observer.
Its the noticing, or having one's attention inexplicably drawn to an event or series of events that otherwise would slip by without fanfare. The de-ja-vu experience is completely about a feeling; one that is ephemeral and difficult to describe.

The sum-total game is a mystical experience to me, when I'm feeling in tune. Its a good feeling, but not prone to cultivation. A state of wonder can't be sustained (imho) if one feels inclined to capture and label its individual small verifications.

Even god, (for lack of better terminology) will avoid a relationship founded on grasping and holding. A better analogy for the subtle thing i shouldn't be trying to expose is in regards to observing wildlife:

You need to nearly pretend you aren't watching; that its no big deal. Delicate relationships are best served by not gawking; not photographing; being willing to accept the unusual and beautiful as everyday stuff.

To teapot if he's lurking:
That is my objection to your example. By exposing it in court, it may avoid you in the future.

Its very difficult to let something rare and beautiful happen without feeling the need to tell someone...which is akin to a betrayal of sorts.
 
LissaLysikan said:
The OP is about synchronicity, not general paranormal events. Should someone actually show they can get 1000 heads in a row on a fair coin they could become a millionaire rather quickly.
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The problem is that Rodney keeps asserting long odds as what defines some events as examples of sychronicity. I keep pointing out that the odds don't make that distinction, since all outcomes (that is all events) can be seen as equally improbable. I find it easier to do this with thought experiments (like considering different results of tossing a fair coin).

Fromdownunder tried to show that his writing a post on the forum can be seen as an extremely improbable event--as improbable as anything offered as an example of synchronicity. The trouble with using real-world examples like this is that Rodney doesn't think that the odds against such an event are astronomical. That's why I like a clean thought experiment like tossing a coin. We can then calculate and use real numbers.

I'm arguing that either events are inherently meaningful, or they are not. If they are not, then what people call "synchronicity" is nothing more than imposing meaning, seeing a pattern where none exists, much like pareidolia.
 
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