I am not sure what skeptical forums you have gone to but you did ignored what I have written here (I also did not see you post in the BAUT forum). I hate having to repeat myself over and over. If you want to throw out Mitch Stanley's observations as the sole reason to disprove the formation of aircraft hypothesis, that might be valid. However, there is other witness testimony that supports this observation so Stanley's observations are not the sole reason this conclusion is reached (
see my website on the subject). Additionally, we have the only video of the event, which supports the testimony of Stanley and negates the testimony of the witnesses who claim there was a massive structure in the sky. There is a good amount of testimony that supports Stanley's observations and negate the massive spaceship observations, which were made by only a minority (roughly 25% of all the INITIAL reports made to NUFORC) of the witnesses (But they got all the air time)
As for no pilots coming forward, I can only state that no pilots have come forward PUBLICLY with this information. From what I have been able to determine, the aircraft were probably Canadian Tutors (see the article by Randy Fitzgerald in the Readers Digest of May 1999, where he quotes an airplane crew who talked to the enroute ATC when they saw the lights) flying in a "big Vic" formation with their taxi lights illuminated. This was not exactly authorized to do but because they were probably pilots learning how to fly in formation, they chose to do this with lights for safety reasons. As a result, the pilots probably will not come forward if they are still active duty military. You can dismiss this as unlikely or likely. It is your choice. However, I find this scenario far more likely than a huge alien spaceship flying over the state of Arizona.
Dear Astro,
The first thing I have to say is “wow!”. I am really impressed by your analysis of the Phoenix Lights. I must sheepishly admit that it was much too detailed for me to do my own analysis without all the charts, graphs, maps, reports, witness testimony and all the rest in front of me. What I will do instead is point out some observations I have. These are not meant so much to be argumentative as they are things that don’t jibe well me and some of which are just strange inconsistencies. And bear in mind that these are my opinions, interpretations only and they are just as potentially fraught with cognitive biases as yours or anybody else’s on this site or off.
Also, I went to Skeptic Friends, Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe, Straight Dope and a couple of UFO sites (which amazed me that they didn’t respond) and Unexplained Mysteries. I didn’t know about BAUT at the time.
First off, as you stated in an earlier thread about the flare debris from the PL incident, “My website describes what transpired. However, in a nutshell, this is
my theory for which
I have pretty good information. Then you use words like,
unaware of what they caused…the Tuscon media
probably did not mention it…
assuming the pilots even watched… the pilots were back in Canada and
probably did not hear about it.
It is also possible…the "V" formation
probably was not authorized…
if the pilots were aware…
they probably would not come forward. These are all words and phrases of speculation, surmise and supposition and conjecture that are used to weave your theory together.
You speculate and make assumptions in order to weave your theory together, which is what you have to do with a theory. Theories, as you know, are not proven facts yet. Wiki - A theory, in the scientific sense of the word, is an analytic structure designed to explain a set of empirical observations. A scientific theory does two things:
1. it identifies this set of distinct observations as a class of phenomena, and
2.
makes assertions about the underlying reality that brings about or affects this class.
What you have done is present a really good case for a down-to-earth, plausible explanation other than an exotic one like ETs. Occam’s Razor dictates that as a starting place.
But here are the things that I wonder about. I find it highly improbable that hundreds, if not several thousand people could all be fooled collectively on this one particular night by planes flying in a squadron and parachutes with flares.
Also, it seems odd that all of these people would collectively suffer from an optical anomaly that makes something very high appear as though it’s right over their heads.
It seems like too many coincidences came together on this particular night to produce a collective type of hypnotism, if you will.
I find it odd that on this night that weather conditions across the state would have to be of such a nature that they caused all of these visual distortions in the atmosphere. Although weather anomalies like this are not impossible, they are rare, especially considering the time of year (not summer) and the distance of approx. 300 miles they would have had to occur over. The odds of all of that coming together at one time are out in the statistical realm of astronomical.
I find it odd that these people who lived by Barry Goldwater firing range for years and had to have been exposed to these types of things many times in the past, would all of a sudden be bamboozled and not make the obvious connection.
I will give you a personal example of something that happened to me about 5 months ago to try to put into perspective my observations. Let me preface this by saying that my dad was a commercial airline pilot for 30 yrs. When I was a kid he would always point out every aircraft he saw and identify it for me. He told me what to look for in the design and profile, etc. The point is, is that I am more attuned to aircraft than the average person on the street.
Also, I live in Seattle near the flights paths for Sea-Tac airport and the Boeing Field. I know what a jet looks like close up when they are descending to land. I know what a jet looks like at a distance. I am not fooled by distance like the people in Nevada and Arizona supposedly were.
So, I am on my porch at night when all of a sudden I see a for real, V-shaped aircraft just like the Phoenix ones. It was very low below regular aircraft and it was flying a strange path that you would normally see. It was bisecting regular paths at approx. a 45 degree angle. And it was really big. Bigger than any aircraft that I have ever seen (thing Spruce Goose type size) and it was hardly making a sound. I know what 747s sound like and the level of sound they make when they fly low as they descend for landing approx 10 miles away to Boeing Field.
It had a bright but fuzzy nose light and three lights on the leading edges. The back two lights were very bright, but also fuzzy (think orb). The third light on the edges were very dim and fuzzy. The absolute kicker for me was that extending way out from the body were three very small but very bright, crisp and well defined lights that were pulsing randomly. If the craft was at the low level I perceived it to be, those would have to be on 10-15 yard rods at least. If this craft was very big and high, the rods would be half the length of a foot ball fiels. Not only had I never seen a V craft before, but never anything like those extended, blinking lights. (Now please take note that I haven’t said it was an alien craft.)
Another thing to take note of is that I clearly saw a V with space in between the two leading edges. The best I can figure is that it was tipped to one side or the other. Now, for me to have see what this was I did, it was either an abnormally large craft flying very low without making noise like a conventional craft would. Or, it was a ship that was way up there that would have had to have been some kind monster mothership.
Now, my first impression, and one I still hold to, is that it was some kind of very cutting edge military craft that the public haven’t seen very much of yet. It’s also important to note that there wasn’t a flurry of UFO reports; nothing in the papers, nothing on the news even though hundreds, if not thousands, witnessed the event. But then again, we live by two airports, like the people in Phoenix live near a range, and are used to that sort of thing, even a very anomalous craft such as I’ve described. The point I am making is that Seattle was not bamboozled and dazzled falsely like you say the Phoenix people had to have been.
Anyway, you present a very compelling theory as to why it is a mundane occurrence, but like all of the theories for Phoenix, both for UFO and against UFO, there are some gaps that need words like “possibly” “assuming” “it’s possible”, etc., to weave them together.
