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UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

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You raise a valid and pertinant point Belz. Physical evidence.

Yes, that pesky thing that you don't have.

I contend however we must take things step by step on that road to discovery.

They've been taking those steps sine the 1940s with no sign of progress.

We are still stuck on my contention that "UFOs exist" and that Rogue River consists plausible evidence to support that contention.

No, we are stuck on the contention that "some UFOs are alien visitors". UFOs exist by definition.

I can see how many might still want to cling to the blimp hypothesis

As opposed to clinging to the "alien" hypothesis ?
 
Kay - those were interesting. And we're still at the "unknown" stage. UFOs exist. We covered that in the last 14+ pages.

No evidence of aliens, therefore "aliens" as an explanation will require a whole lot of evidence that we haven't seen.

And we're seeing a theme here - the age of these reports is 50 or more years. 50 years ago my parents weren't even embryos yet.

We can see a lot farther than the primitive radar of 50 years ago, in more detail.
So - now that we have better technology to identify things easier at a distance ...

More and more, Rramjet, you are needing this evidence that aliens exist to support your position.
UFOs exist - we ALL accept that, but a non-mundane explanation for them is getting weaker. At the rate you are going you are going to convince us wannabe believers that there is nothing to believe in.
 
What is obvious to me is that there are patterns of illogic at work here. You contend, oh poor dear, he is so immersed in his “alien” beliefs that he cannot see his position is not rational.

You can't blame us, can you ?

It's the kind of behaviour we see in a lot of believers, religious or otherwise. They make a claim, unsupported, and when mundane explanations are given or contradictions in their arguments pointed out, they resort to strawmen and other fallacies to wiggle out of the argument and then act as though their opponents had never made the explanations or pointed out the contradictions.

But there isn't any more physical evidence for alien visitors as there are for ghosts or homeopathy. Every single time the claims have been investigated, mundane explanations have been proposed that fit the facts, or the claim was shown to be flat-out wrong. And in each case the believer STILL clings to his/her beliefs, for instance claiming that the studies didn't test the REAL homeopaths. Somehow we always get the BAD ones.

So it's no surprise that skeptics here recognise that behaviour in you. You make a claim, are presented with a possible mundane explanation that fits the observations (a blimp, in this instance), and then you start resorting to fallacies (shifting the burden of proof, in this instance) to avoid admitting that it's a simpler explanation than aliens. You are emotionally commited to your hypothesis, and that can't help you see straight.

Let me create a fictional example. Let's say that I claim to have awoken one night and saw a man-shaped shadow in my room. Moments later, I turn on the lights. Nothing's there. I come to the JREF claiming I saw a man in my room. Somebody says that my half-asleep state, combined with shadows, created this illusion. I point out that millions of people have had similar experiences. Someone else says that it doesn't prove that a cabal of evil men is entering people's home just to stare at them as they sleep. Then I ask them to prove conclusively that it was a shadow in order to disprove the evil man hypothesis...

It simply doesn't work that way. We know people see shadows and interpret them wrong, sometimes, especially when they are half-asleep. We know this to be true, while we DON'T know of a cabal of evil men entering people's homes just to stare at them as they sleep. The most likely explanation is NOT the evil man hypothesis.

Same here. The most likely explanation is NOT aliens. Not because lots of people see them, and not because they claim to have seen aliens. It's not the most likely explanation because we have other explanations that describe things we KNOW exist. Blimps, clouds, hallucinations, etc. We have no physical evidence of alien visitations, whatsoever. Like ghosts, the alien craft and their inhabitants evaporate under investigation. The only remaining explanation is mundane.

A rational person must accept this. If you can't, then something is preventing you from thinking rationally about this issue. In this case, belief.
 
Patricio Elicer and SnidelyW are right. Agree with him or not, Rramjet has, from what I've seen, not been mean to anyone and tries to document his point of view as thoroughly as he possibly can. People have accused him of being arrogant in the way in which he presents his point of view, but to me, he just sounds really excited all the time, sort of like he drinks lots of coffee before every post he makes. He has a fun and flamboyant quality to his writing; that's all. There seem to be a lot of antagonistic people on this board whose interest in skepticism appears to have more to do with them wanting to laugh at the unusual beliefs of others to feed their egos than with their having a genuine desire to understand the world around them.

Good post (as were Patricio's and Elicer SnidelyW's)! I was also very surprised when realizing the higlited part, after the initial thrill of the forum wore down. But so it is with people anywhere and everywhere. And no matter how hard we disagree on any single subject, that is something we all can/must work to improve on constantly.

I would also like to commend Rramjet on his patience, and his inclination to continuously try to steer the conversation towards the evidence (whatever one makes of it's quality). It's exactly people like him who make coming to these forums worth the while. I think true skepticism is in it's essence about the friction of constantly challenging one's own view on things (check my sig ;))

ETA: Belz...very well put in your last post!

I'm in agreement to move on...
 
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Therefore my contention that UFOs exist has then been verified by the evidence presented in the Rogue River case.

You just stated that Unidentified flying objects exists because of one specific UFO report. This is completely wrong. UFOs exists because of all the UFO reports that are submitted. Nobody has denied UFOs exist on this thread simply because people report things they can not identify. However, you have yet to provide sufficient evidence that this means anything significant. Once again, the data is subject to human error, which makes it suspect.

In Allan Hendry's (Hendry was a lead UFO investigator to CUFOS in the 1970s) book (The UFO Handbook), he wrote the following:

UFOlogists talk about dealing with facts instead of assumptions. They usually start with empirical obseravtions of UFO witnesses and then create a hypothesis to test. Yet it should be evident at this point that UFOlogists are making the biggest assumption of all if they accept witness descriptions at face value. If we realize that the kinds of people who report "genuine" UFOs are the same as those who report IFOs, and if we treat IFO reports as a control group which can be completely explored and analyzed, then we cannot blindly accept UFO witnesses as a"error-free" instruments. They are simply ordinary people, subject to distortions in perception, memory, and self-expression, on what appears to be an emotionally charged subject. (p.103 Sphere edition)
 
Hi Astrophotographer - but we did not finish our last debate.

And you chose to not comment about the Catalina island video I posted. Again, what prevents the witnesses from mistaking an aircraft the same way thousands mistook the film by Hansen taken over Catalina Island? This man was a professional photographer and he assumed he had recorded an actual flying saucer. Somehow, despite his experience at identifying aircraft and understanding how airplanes appear using his camera, he still mistook a private aircraft for a flying saucer.
 
I believe... if no new evidence is about to be presented... that the "blimp" hypothesis for Rogue River is now implausible.


Believe what you will (and obviously you will believe), the general consensus is that the possibility of the Rogue River sighting being a blimp has been shown to be plausible. If you've been making a case that it isn't, you've failed.
 
Why do you all keep letting him suck you into the "UFOs exist" debate?
Stop responding to that.
Do NOT respond to the "implied" aliens - wait for it to be stated.
By going back and using "UFO" and "aliens" as if they are the same thing you are actually giving HIS position ground.
UFO means unidentified and does not imply any more than that.
Rogue River is a UFO.
 
So MANY times someone would say something like:

The Rogue River case is not a UFO because we all know eyewitness testimony to be fallible.

I don't think anyone here said that it is not a UFO because we can not positively identify the source. By definition it remains unidentified. However, everyone has presented potential sources for the observations that could identify the object in question. You have summarily dismissed these possibilities with nothing more than a wave of the hand in most cases (you did provide an argument against the blimp theory) simply because you believe the witnesses could or were 100% accurate in their drawing of what they saw. I have suggested long ago that you read Hendry's book on the subject and he points out continuously the problems with reliability of such testimony. Since you do not seem interested in that, I suggest you watch Dr. Neil Tyson in the following video clip (Just watch the first 6 minutes):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfAzaDyae-k
 
I, on the other hand, am NOT committed to ANY contention at all on the issue.
Yes you have. You got carried away and committed yourself to your real position. What a slip up you did!
My argument is that: “

It CANNOT have been (the mundane explanations cited by debunkers), therefore it isn’t (the mundane explanations cited by debunkers)”.

And then dishonestly tried to say that was not your real position so that you could try to avoid having to present extraordinary evidence for your extraordinary claim.

Come on, I'll even buy you a root beer for being such a good sport about losing. I even came back to the thread since everyone agrees that you lost.
 
Now, no matter WHAT X or Y represents, the same logical rules should apply. For imagine if the same rules did NOT apply. Why then we have entered a world where logical forms no longer apply, and rules are simply made up on the whim of the person to suit the circumstance and belief of the moment. All rational inquiry is lost to us.
I'm not sure what a "logical form" is, but I am pretty sure of the optimal way to understand the idea that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence:

An extraordinary claim is exactly one that goes against a lot of other evidence. It is not any claim that anyone might say is extraordinary. So, the reason why an extraordinary amount of evidence is required for this extraordinary claim is that it must outweigh all the evidence for its contrary which is there by definition. This definition of an extraordinary claim is required if the concept is to actually work, if you think about it, even though it may not be obvious from the phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

To wit: if I claim I went to the store and buy a loaf of bread, you may only require another person to confirm this claim in order to *reasonably* believe that I did so (note, this confirmation is not absolute proof, it is merely sufficient for tentative belief). This is not an extraordinary claim, and the evidence for it is not extraordinary. If I claim I went to the store and saw an alien spaceship, another person who confirms this claim is not sufficient evidence to make me believe the claim. I might want to investigate further, but belief is not warranted. It doesn't prove that aliens ships don't exist, either.
 
I have a straight forward question for Rramjet:

Do you think that extraordinary claims should be backed up with extraordinary evidence? Why or why not?
 
Niccolai’s wife was not home at the time of the (alleged) UFO incident. When she returned, Niccolai reportedly informed her: “Your [missing] cat is back. Extraterrestrials brought him home.” Then he described his UFO sighting, which his wife initially assumed to be a practical joke. Later she told a neighbor who believed in UFOs, who in turn reported the incident to the Gendarmerie.
And not long after, we have comments from posters BlackKat and Alley Cat.
A theory begins to form as to the nature of these aliens...
 
I'm not sure what a "logical form" is, but I am pretty sure of the optimal way to understand the idea that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence:

An extraordinary claim is exactly one that goes against a lot of other evidence. It is not any claim that anyone might say is extraordinary. So, the reason why an extraordinary amount of evidence is required for this extraordinary claim is that it must outweigh all the evidence for its contrary which is there by definition. This definition of an extraordinary claim is required if the concept is to actually work, if you think about it, even though it may not be obvious from the phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

To wit: if I claim I went to the store and buy a loaf of bread, you may only require another person to confirm this claim in order to *reasonably* believe that I did so (note, this confirmation is not absolute proof, it is merely sufficient for tentative belief). This is not an extraordinary claim, and the evidence for it is not extraordinary. If I claim I went to the store and saw an alien spaceship, another person who confirms this claim is not sufficient evidence to make me believe the claim. I might want to investigate further, but belief is not warranted. It doesn't prove that aliens ships don't exist, either.

Well…I suppose this is the risk I take. Some get it and some don’t.

It really is quite simple. A claim either has evidence to support it …or it does not. One man’s “extraordinary claim, is another man’s “banal” idea. The contention that somehow we must change the rules of evidence in scientific inquiry merely on the whim of the value judgements of individuals - would make science logically unworkable.

No, I present a claim - and if it has the evidence to support it, it will stand. If the evidence is not there to support it, it will fall. Nothing more, nothing less. That is how rational scientific inquiry works.

With your bread example compared with the alien example – there is no difference in the standard of proof needed to scientifically confirm either.

We relax the standard for the bread because we really do not care one way or the other… but if it did matter (like some scientific hypothesis hung on it), then the same scientific standard would again need to be reinstated.

I can make the point with the blimp example the same way. You might say the blimp is mundane and requires no real investigative proof …but you would be wrong because, because a significant hypothesis DOES hang on it – whether or not Rogue River was a UFO or a blimp. THAT then requires a scientific standard of proof. If it did not really matter to anyone whether it was a blimp we might just say… “Oh yeah, perhaps it was” and leave it at that. But when you are directly challenged because a substantive hypothesis hangs on it, you MUST provide the evidence.

Just as with the bread example. If challenged (say a murder case hinged on it) then you WOULD have to come up with the evidence. Merely saying “Oh, it is just a loaf of bread at the shops, an ordinary mundane occurrence, really my word for it should be good enough for you” DOES not wash with the police investigating you. They would demand witnesses, photos, travel logs, whatever was available to confirm you actually bought the bread when you said you did – and you better provide it. It would be the height of arrogance to say to the police that just because it did not matter to you…then it should not matter to them.

Do you see?
 
In another thread on this site I attempted to elicit opinion on the reliability of photo evidence of UFO's, and, after some extremely detailed debate, the skeptics dismissed photo evidence as unreliable, even with multiple corraborative witnesses to the taking of the photos.

Astrophotographer has stated that eyewitness testimony is unreliable.

So, they have unreliable witnesses and unreliable photo evidence- what is left? Physical evidence.

Physical evidence cannot lie- can it?
 
Yes you have. You got carried away and committed yourself to your real position. What a slip up you did!

And then dishonestly tried to say that was not your real position so that you could try to avoid having to present extraordinary evidence for your extraordinary claim.

Come on, I'll even buy you a root beer for being such a good sport about losing. I even came back to the thread since everyone agrees that you lost.

Actually, the context is again missing.

That argument was intended to show the difference between logical forms. However, it was badly worded and yes, I made a mistake with it and admitted it was a mistake at the time and ALSO explained at the time that it did not reflect my position as stated in all my previous posts and all the posts that came after. I do make mistakes. I am human. I admit it.

It is however rather vulgar of you to call me dishonest because I made a mistake...a slip of the typographical tongue so to speak. You will notice I do not rehash others mistakes in the same vein - it would merely lead to endless bickering.

So your contention about me doing it to avoid providing "extraordinary" evidence is false. I AM providing evidence (or trying to!). The ONLY other person here I also see REGULARLY providing evidence in answer to my hypotheses and contentions is Astrophotographer (Oh and Stray Cat has had a few goes) - and I commend him (them) for it.

So, shall we move on?
 
Here is a link to a site which discusses 'physical evidence' as it relates to UFO sightings

http://www.ufoevidence.org/topics/physicalevidence.htm

Ooo ...umm ...I ran into trouble with that one and got severely chastised for posting a link that contained only two working sub-links. I was forced to explain and retract and move in another direction. Just a heads up warning to you that you possibly might expect some of the same treatment.
 
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