• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

UFOs: The Research, the Evidence

Status
Not open for further replies.
Add my voice to "yeah - he's cool in the face of adversity" - I don't agree with his position or some of the ways he applies logic, but he hasn't turned it into an insult party

I have to disagree (but in a friendly and lively way ;) ). I think continuously misrepresenting other people's point of view is exceptionally rude. I guess it's easy to be cool when you're making up what other people are saying so you can shoot down strawmen.

ETA: I don't like root beer. :(
 
....I think continuously misrepresenting other people's point of view is exceptionally rude. I guess it's easy to be cool when you're making up what other people are saying so you can shoot down strawmen.
....

That was where the "or some of the ways he applies logic" fits in. :D
 
I think the nicest thing I can say is that Rramjet has reading comprehension problems. That's the only way I can assume he's not outright making stuff up because he can't argue the actual facts. I know we should attack the argument not the arguer, but I think we've reached a point where the arguer is the argument. He certainly doesn't have anything else.
 
I think he believes he is honestly debating and using real logic. He just believes in his alien theory so strongly that he can't see that it looks like nonsense to others and doesn't even understand why we can't see what is "obvious" to him.
 
Sadly, that's probably true of most of the believers in the sorts of nonsense that crop up around here.
 
I think he believes he is honestly debating and using real logic. He just believes in his alien theory so strongly that he can't see that it looks like nonsense to others and doesn't even understand why we can't see what is "obvious" to him.

What is obvious to me is that there are patterns of illogic at work here. You contend, oh poor dear, he is so immersed in his “alien” beliefs that he cannot see his position is not rational. But I contend it is actually the other way around (in the general sense, not against you personally): For example

So MANY times someone would say something like:

The Rogue River case is not a UFO because we all know eyewitness testimony to be fallible.

Now this, in case you did not know, is a generalised assertion that need not necessarily apply to the Rogue River case. That is, there is a range of fallibility of eyewitness testimony from 0% to 100% accuracy - and for all we know, the Rogue River sighting COULD be a case representing a time when the witnesses WERE 100% accurate.

So in all cases the mere assertion that something is so, is not enough to make it so. According to the range of possibilities, SOMETIMES it WILL be so, but equally, at other times it will NOT be so.

The logical follow-on from this is that in each case, one must examine the evidence provided in the eyewitness testimony to determine two things. First, do any of the conditions meet the conditions we know to cause perceptual fallibility and second, do any of those conditions directly affect the particular descriptors.

For example. A witness estimates height and shape against a clear blue sky. First we KNOW that perception is fallible when trying to estimate height in this way, so we state the height estimate is likely to be unreliable (note: NOT IS unreliable, just “likely to be” – because the possibility always remains that the estimate is actually correct). HOWEVER, when it comes to shape, we know that a clear mono-coloured background is an excellent medium against which shape can be determined. Therefore we might consider shape to be a reliable description.

What the debunkers invariably do however is throw the baby out with the bathwater and state the generalisation that because at least part of the testimony is unreliable, we should reject the whole - and that is of course is fallacious reasoning.

More, if you contend that you do not need to show examples for individual cases because ALL eyewitness testimony is unreliable, then you CANNOT use that same testimony to determine if the object sighted was a mundane object. Either it was reliable enough to determine an object to be mundane AND is therefore reliable enough to determine that no plausible mundane explanation fits OR the testimony is not reliable enough to determine either case.

The debunkers however want to have a bit of both. They want to say a testimony is reliable ONLY when the investigation concludes a mundane explanation is plausible, but claim the testimony is unreliable if an “unknown” verdict is brought. And of course this also is fallacious logic. This is the debunkers catch 22. They cannot have it both ways.

There are so many other examples where the debunker logic is twisted.

The burden of proof is a good recent example.

If I claim UFOs represent “aliens”, then the debunkers cry long and loud; “Where is your evidence. Show me the evidence. Prove it!” But if the debunkers claim the UFO actually represents a blimp, and I say; “Show me the evidence! Prove it”, in exactly the same way, to exactly the same situation, they suddenly say, oh but we don’t have to show evidence for that, it is up to YOU to prove that it wasn’t a blimp!

And this is illogical. It represent a double standard.

There is so much more. Like the:

It could be, therefore it is argument.

Debunkers love to claim of UFO accounts, "Oh it is THIS mundane event that explains it. It is possible to explain it that way so then it IS explained that way.

If challenged they say, ”Oh well, it is a plausible explanation, it “fits”, so it could have been what people saw.” But among themselves they fall back on, THAT IS what it was.

And then, if I say, well you really have to show me direct evidence for your contention, the debunker says, “Oh no, it is plausible, that’s all, the burden of proof is on you to show how it could NOT have been that mundane explanation…and THEN of course we are back into the illogical position described above in the burden of proof. One strict standard of evidence for me (having to prove BOTH the positive and the negative), another for them (having to prove nothing at all).

There is also the physics is dead argument. Where the debunker claims “aliens” are impossible because physics precludes such journeys through space. This IS of course simply stating that no new breakthroughs in physics are possible that might allow just that to occur. Which is again an illogical proposition.

There are SO many more… Look to my posted debate with Astrophotographer – there are few other examples there (third post down on p.12 of this thread. But I have not time to explain them all.

As you can see, simply explaining one logical fallacy is a lengthy and time consuming process and because often the explanation is logically dense in itself, the original “committer” of the fallacy rarely has either the wit or the patience to follow the arguments through and remains none the wiser as to their own illogicality.

The point I am trying to make is that it is actually the debunkers who are so caught up in their own belief system and so committed to arguing against UFOs that they have not realised their abandonment of logic and rational, critical thinking.

I, on the other hand, am NOT committed to ANY contention at all on the issue. I HAVE indeed taken a positive position on an issue and, as a good skeptic, will stick to the rules of logic and debate to argue for my chosen case.

I hope you can see my position IS at least logically consistent and rational. And I will put mu money where my mouth is: IF you can find ANYWHERE in my posts in this thread I have made any substantial illogical or irrational assertion, and you point it out to me, I will publicly retract and apologise directly to you for having misrepresented my own position.
 
Last edited:
What is obvious to me is that there are patterns of illogic at work here. You contend, oh poor dear, he is so immersed in his “alien” beliefs that he cannot see his position is not rational. But I contend it is actually the other way around (in the general sense, not against you personally): For example

So MANY times someone would say something like:

The Rogue River case is not a UFO because we all know eyewitness testimony to be fallible.
Here is your big failure. It is so big it is incomprehensible to me how you miss it, but I see you have missed it in every post so far.
Every single one of us has said it IS a UFO.
Some have offered possibilities, but NO ONE has offered to change it to an IFO.
NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON IN THIS THREAD HAS DENIED IT IS A UFO.
It IS a UFO. It will REMAIN a UFO for eternity, regardless of all else (barring the invention of time travel).
If I claim UFOs represent “aliens”, then the debunkers cry long and loud; “Where is your evidence. Show me the evidence. Prove it!” But if the debunkers claim the UFO actually represents a blimp, and I say; “Show me the evidence! Prove it”, in exactly the same way, to exactly the same situation, they suddenly say, oh but we don’t have to show evidence for that, it is up to YOU to prove that it wasn’t a blimp!
False - this is the part that gets you labeled a liar.
No one has said it is a blimp. Some have said it COULD be a blimp, which means that it is possibly mundane. Some have extended themselves far enough to say probably a blimp. NONE have said definitely a blimp.

And this is illogical. It represent a double standard.
It would be, were your rendition true.

There is so much more. Like the:

It could be, therefore it is argument.
Which was YOUR invention, not any posters.

Debunkers love to claim of UFO accounts, "Oh it is THIS mundane event that explains it. It is possible to explain it that way so then it IS explained that way.

If challenged they say, ”Oh well, it is a plausible explanation, it “fits”, so it could have been what people saw.” But among themselves they fall back on, THAT IS what it was.
Not being a social person, I have no idea what they say when they are not posting here. All I can go by is the posts and that is all I do go by. I do not try to guess what they 'meant' or 'believe'. I don't actually care, to be honest. What they say and can support is all that matters.

And then, if I say, well you really have to show me direct evidence for your contention, the debunker says, “Oh no, it is plausible, that’s all, the burden of proof is on you to show how it could NOT have been that mundane explanation…and THEN of course we are back into the illogical position described above in the burden of proof. One strict standard of evidence for me (having to prove BOTH the positive and the negative), another for them (having to prove nothing at all).
They are correct - to accept an extraordinary theory one would require an extraordinary evidence, to accept an ordinary theory one only needs an ordinary evidence. Simple, grade school scientific method.

There is also the physics is dead argument. Where the debunker claims “aliens” are impossible because physics precludes such journeys through space. This IS of course simply stating that no new breakthroughs in physics are possible that might allow just that to occur. Which is again an illogical proposition.
Bringing magic into the argument doesn't advance your position. There ARE limitations to how far our physics can be "wrong" and still yield the experimental results that they do. Magic is outside those limits.

I, on the other hand, am NOT committed to ANY contention at all on the issue. I HAVE indeed taken a positive position on an issue and, as a good skeptic, will stick to the rules of logic and debate to argue for my chosen case.

I hope you can see my position IS at least logically consistent and rational. And I will put mu money where my mouth is: IF you can find ANYWHERE in my posts in this thread I have made any substantial illogical or irrational assertion, and you point it out to me, I will publicly retract and apologise directly to you for having misrepresented my own position.

THIS part is why I am still reading - I want to see your evidence that "aliens" of any sort is a plausible explanation. If you can show evidence that these aliens exist, then your alternative becomes worthy of consideration. If you can't, then the mundane must remain the "most likely" (not definitive) explanation. Without evidence that such aliens even exist, anything other than a mundane explanation requires extraordinary evidence, which so far has not been produced.

I am not committed to any theory here - I like the idea of aliens (although I would prefer they be faeries, but I'll take what I can get). I just need to see some reason to think they exist. My head likes to invent enough stuff on its own without me falling for stuff someone else's invented.
 
To begin:

I contend the following evidence represents physical evidence of a UFO.

Trans en Provence UFO (8 Jan 1981)
(http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ci...ument/1981.htm)

Therefore, physical evidence exists for UFOs.

The page cannot be found
The page you are looking for might have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable.


And by the way your statement:
So MANY times someone would say something like:

The Rogue River case is not a UFO because we all know eyewitness testimony to be fallible.
An outright lie. We said the Rogue Rive case is not likely to be aliens because eyewitness testimony is fallible (particularly those representing speed and distance judgements). It remains a UFO with likely possible mundane explanations.

Unfortunately this has been par for the course in all these UFO threads.
Why do you insist on arguing dishonestly?

We ALL agree there are UFOs.
You are asserting there is probably not an unknown mundane explanation for them because you do not want there to be one, and we are asserting there probably is an unknown mundane explanation for them because we believe that the likelihood of there not being one is infinitely tiny.

Ultimately this thread has so far been silly. There has been no evidence presented at all. Just anecdotes. Where's the evidence?
 
Last edited:
Pure nonsense... :boggled:
I’m sorry! “Pure nonsense” is not an answer! While I agree with your POV 95% of the time, Ramjet is making a very valid point here about your analytical processes.

I am completely sceptical, perhaps in denial, that there is alien activity on Earth. But I had a personal experience back in the 70s. I saw something happening in the sky, on a clear day at noon, which was never explained. I stopped and looked at what was going on, couldn’t explain it and got on with my life. That week it was reported in the local paper that dozens (not that many then) of different, unconnected people had phoned the paper and the police while it was occurring. Some of the police had gone outside and also witnessed this phenomenon. Nobody ever explained it.

It was UNEXPLAINED. That does not mean it was alien. (However, if it was human then it would not have been a one-off therefore an explanation would have been forthcoming). It also does not mean that all those people were in a conspiracy or had all taken drugs, were all mentally impaired or had the wrong glasses on that day.

But if YOU take the position that “the witness testimony to be totally unreliable” then you cannot cherry pick the bits you like from their testimonies OR use any of the bits in any way. The operative word, which you used, is TOTALLY.

And as Ramjet says, sometimes ALL the witnesses agree – BEFORE they get a chance to speak to each other. Even the ones who keep quiet and say nothing – how many of those have there been over millennia?

These Blimps – yes, very common sightings by lots of people who may or may not think they are Blimps – but I think you should expand upon the SPEED at which these can travel as opposed to the SPEED at which they are seen to be travelling by many of the “witnesses”. And, maybe you’d like to mention the top speed at which any air/space craft we had in the late 70s was capable of travelling. I can tell you… my “Blimp” shaped objects (lots of them) travelled at a speed I did not believe. And still don’t. Explanation?

Oh…. Sorry, I was looking for the “Lesbians in pink frilly knickers forum” and got lost in here by mistake. But the squabbling, even when you overlook the fact you are in agreement (!!) is much more interesting, so I think I’ll stay for a while.
 
Huh!

Try This then...

Trans en Provence UFO (8 Jan 1981)
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ufo_briefingdocument/1981.htm

Why? I have NO idea!

No evidence there.
Just another anectdote from a farmer accompanied by a depression in the ground with nothing to indicate something non-mundane made said depression.

All the "evidence" consists of a soil analysis made many days after the event following police and others tromping around the site, and some seemingly affected plants.

Sounds like a herbicide (in common use by farmers) spill to me:
http://books.google.com/books?id=Wj...resnum=1&ved=0CBIQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=&f=false
 
Last edited:
For example. A witness estimates height and shape against a clear blue sky. First we KNOW that perception is fallible when trying to estimate height in this way, so we state the height estimate is likely to be unreliable (note: NOT IS unreliable, just “likely to be” – because the possibility always remains that the estimate is actually correct). HOWEVER, when it comes to shape, we know that a clear mono-coloured background is an excellent medium against which shape can be determined. Therefore we might consider shape to be a reliable description.
Nope, optical illusions are quite common. With a bit of range and light, speed, colors and shape are lost. You have been posting pictures of blimps but those were taken at short range with optimum light conditions.


The burden of proof is a good recent example.

If I claim UFOs represent “aliens”, then the debunkers cry long and loud; “Where is your evidence. Show me the evidence. Prove it!” But if the debunkers claim the UFO actually represents a blimp, and I say; “Show me the evidence! Prove it”, in exactly the same way, to exactly the same situation, they suddenly say, oh but we don’t have to show evidence for that, it is up to YOU to prove that it wasn’t a blimp!
[snip]
And then, if I say, well you really have to show me direct evidence for your contention, the debunker says, “Oh no, it is plausible, that’s all, the burden of proof is on you to show how it could NOT have been that mundane explanation…and THEN of course we are back into the illogical position described above in the burden of proof. One strict standard of evidence for me (having to prove BOTH the positive and the negative), another for them (having to prove nothing at all).
You assume that the burden of proof is equal. It isn't, the more mundane the lighter the burden of proof. Its dishonest to pretend its equal to all cases. Also you only have to prove the positive.

And even if we do use an equal burden of proof, you come up short. Right now you can't even proof that there was an object to begin with, let alone an UFO (unknown). Right now it must just as well have been a prank.
 
Last edited:
Here is your big failure. It is so big it is incomprehensible to me how you miss it, but I see you have missed it in every post so far.

Every single one of us has said it IS a UFO.
Some have offered possibilities, but NO ONE has offered to change it to an IFO.
NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON IN THIS THREAD HAS DENIED IT IS A UFO.
It IS a UFO. It will REMAIN a UFO for eternity, regardless of all else (barring the invention of time travel).

Righhhht… Yeah…ooookay…. Sure…have it your way…. All that argument about blimps was…merely a word game… playing with semantics for the sheer and bloody minded hell of it then? (shrugs)… well, at least we have the positive admission that “EVERY single one of us has said it is a UFO” Now while that is plainly and in itself demonstrably a false assertion… I’ll be big enough to let it slide…(and of course by “it” you mean the Rogue River UFO).

Therefore my contention that UFOs exist has then been verified by the evidence presented in the Rogue River case.

… this is the part that gets you labeled a liar.
No one has said it is a blimp. Some have said it COULD be a blimp, which means that it is possibly mundane. Some have extended themselves far enough to say probably a blimp. NONE have said definitely a blimp.

Oookayyyy… sure… Then NONE have said definitely a blimp” (again technically incorrect) BUT they sure as hell implied that was what they BELIEVED it was… and the whole tenor of the argument played out exactly as I stated… but again I’ll be big enough not to need to argue the technicalities and let that slide also…there are bigger fish to fry.

I stated:
And then, if I say, well you really have to show me direct evidence for your contention, the debunker says, “Oh no, it is plausible, that’s all, the burden of proof is on you to show how it could NOT have been that mundane explanation…and THEN of course we are back into the illogical position described above in the burden of proof. One strict standard of evidence for me (having to prove BOTH the positive and the negative), another for them (having to prove nothing at all).

And you replied:
They are correct - to accept an extraordinary theory one would require an extraordinary evidence, to accept an ordinary theory one only needs an ordinary evidence. Simple, grade school scientific method.

I guess this is my fault. I assumed people knew about logical forms. But guess I forget that I have had the benefit of formal training. I can only conclude that people just can’t grasp the concepts without that benefit of formal training. Pity – because this is supposed to be a skeptical forum supposedly aimed at critical thinking…

A small lesson might then be in order and might illuminate what I mean about the burden of proof (and please I AM trying to be genuine and non-condescending here):
If I make an assertion that X is true, do you, as a critical thinker, take my word for it? No of course not. I could be a complete nutter making wild claims. You therefore demand some kind of verification that X is indeed true. You would be remiss if you did not. In short you demand to see the evidence that X is true. Entirely a reasonable proposition. Agreed?

Now, You make the assertion that Y is true. As a critical thinker, do I take your word for it. No, of course not. You could be a complete nutter making wild claims. I therefore demand some kind of verification that Y is indeed true. I would be remiss if I did not. In short I demand to see the evidence that Y is true. Again, an entirely reasonable proposition. Agreed?

Now, no matter WHAT X or Y represents, the same logical rules should apply. For imagine if the same rules did NOT apply. Why then we have entered a world where logical forms no longer apply, and rules are simply made up on the whim of the person to suit the circumstance and belief of the moment. All rational inquiry is lost to us.

Further, your claim might seem perfectly ordinary and mundane to you, but if ANY person considers it to be extraordinary, then you MUST provide proof of that claim. ANY claim must be supported by evidence, no matter WHAT the claim represents. Either the evidence is there to support that claim, or it is not. I simply does NOT matter whether the claim is extra-ordinary, mundane, stupid, simple…whatever, the same formal requirements apply to each claim equally.

This whole matter of “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” is an irrational trick, invented to distract people from rational, critical thinking. It is an anathema to scientific inquiry. The matter is really quite simple. Either a claim can be supported by the evidence, or it cannot.

I stated also:
There is also the physics is dead argument. Where the debunker claims “aliens” are impossible because physics precludes such journeys through space. This IS of course simply stating that no new breakthroughs in physics are possible that might allow just that to occur. Which is again an illogical proposition.

And you replied:
Bringing magic into the argument doesn't advance your position. There ARE limitations to how far our physics can be "wrong" and still yield the experimental results that they do. Magic is outside those limits.

Again a small (!) lesson in logical form and rational inquiry might help you out here.

Imagine we lived in the 1800s. I hypothesise (note not claim – merely suppose) to you that there are objects on earth that, when you rotate them through 720 degrees, they return to their original position. You would have said I was completely insane. You would have contended that physics simply does NOT allow such a thing. You would refer me to the comprehensive and scientifically verified works of Newton.

What if I then argued that your denial of such things precludes advances in physics that would show that such things are indeed possible.

Of course, by your logic, you would contend I was invoking “magic” and that such a thing does NOT advance my position.

Then Lo…a century later we discover quarks and also discover that at least some of these strange objects do indeed exhibit such properties. I am proven RIGHT.
Now. Apply that to my hypothesis that it is possible that advances in physics might show us a way to travel interstellar distances.

You claim that is impossible because physics precludes it. Your argument (as it was in the 1800s) is that I am invoking “magic”. Not at all, I am merely stating that YOU cannot claim to know what advances might come in the future.

And please note carefully, I am merely hypothesising, supposing, asking what if? And that IS an entirely legitimate scientific pursuit. You on the other hand are stating a categorical: “Science precludes that” – when you actually do NOT know if it is possible or not.

Now, I can see how you might object… If we cannot rule things OUT using current science, then we cannot advance our knowledge, for then “anything goes” and we cannot say with certainty that a proposition is not applicable to a given situation.

However, that is precisely why science is investigative. We test hypotheses, over and over, not trusting the single observation, BECAUSE of the possibility that indeed “anything goes” and even after we have tested and retested we can NEVER be 100% certain that something in the future might present an example that contradicts ALL our investigative attempts and we have to start over with a new hypothesis. And that has happened SO many times throughout history it is a wonder we think that science has any value at all! But THAT is the nature of science. THAT IS just the way of things. That is the way it IS.

Just because we don’t like the way it is, does not mean we cannot learn to live with it. Just because we do not like the way it IS, does not mean we have to shoot the messenger when he/she points out that that IS the way it is. And just because we do not like the way it is, does not mean that the logic of the messenger pointing it out to us incorrect. No…we just have to learn to live with it.

THIS part is why I am still reading - I want to see your evidence that "aliens" of any sort is a plausible explanation. If you can show evidence that these aliens exist, then your alternative becomes worthy of consideration. If you can't, then the mundane must remain the "most likely" (not definitive) explanation. Without evidence that such aliens even exist, anything other than a mundane explanation requires extraordinary evidence, which so far has not been produced.

I am not committed to any theory here - I like the idea of aliens (although I would prefer they be faeries, but I'll take what I can get). I just need to see some reason to think they exist. My head likes to invent enough stuff on its own without me falling for stuff someone else's invented.

Now we are getting somewhere. I fully appreciate your hanging in this far. Indeed I applaud your tenacity and your obvious reading through of my logic and trying to come to grips with it. Thank you. I could of course object to your value judgements – and there will come a time when I MUST dispel certain fallacies behind including terms like “most likely” – but now is NOT the time or place. It will come up when I present the evidence and that will be time enough.

Now. Apparently the link I provided did not work. I have NO idea why. It is the same link I reposted that DOES work. Just in case, I’ll post it here again.

Trans en Provence UFO (8 Jan 1981)
(http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ufo_briefingdocument/1981.htm)
 
Ughh... Advertising blimps...? You mean those blimps that make themselves as VISIBLE and RECOGNISABLE as POSSIBLE in order to attract attention to themselves and try their BEST not to be recognisable as anything other than the product they are trying to represent?

From ANY distance, you mean ?

And you contend that it couldn't look like a circular object... not even from the front ?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom