Supreme leader Khamenei has died

[geni]

I bet when Khamenei actually does die the Iranians find some ayatollah with a name like Khemenei to replace him just to screw with us...

Hmm there is a Movahedi-Kermani a Mohsen Kazerun and nominaly Khamenei's brother Hadi Khamenei but the two of them differ politicaly.

 

[Tin Foil Timothy]

Good. Another evil man has died. Hopefully he will be replaced by an Ayatollah who is a little more moderate and wants to engage the West, rather then destroy it and isolate Iran.

I guess that wouldn't be good enough for the right wing Zionists who just Islam dead however accommodating it is to the 'West' Zionists

 

[WildCat]

I guess that wouldn't be good enough for the right wing Zionists who just Islam dead however accommodating it is to the 'West' Zionists

Psssst, he's not dead...

 

[Darth Rotor]

I guess that wouldn't be good enough for the right wing Zionists who just Islam dead however accommodating it is to the 'West' Zionists

What did you mean by that bolded part? It's missing a few words.

DR

 

[GreNME]

Not a valid argument in this case. The guy is 70. As long as he remains in power there is a risk of haveing to deal with an unknown quantity in short order. So in that respect it makes little difference if he is dead or not. We still have the the problem that a month down the line we may have to deal with an unknown quality.

I repeat: there is no indication other than this rumor that Khamenei is even sick.

It's not just us who will have to deal with whomever eventually replaces Khamenei. Arguably, the Iranian people have more stake in the matter than we in the West do, and just the process of going through a regime change will make a huge impact in Iran, particularly given the ongoing "Green Revolution" protests. All of those and other factors (like the power-grab struggle that's been going on over there the last few years) will affect the political situation over there in unknown ways, especially if Khamenei dies without any warning (which this seems to be).

That the world is eventually going to have to go on after Khamenei's death does not address the unpredictability problem I'm talking about if these rumors are true. Having an idea of his health and being capable of preparing contingencies happens to be part and parcel with diplomatic and foreign relations. That this would come up without any further notice seems both strange and, considering the lack of news in Iran on the matter, indicative of a political trick.


ETA: and none of that addresses my criticism of parky's post as incredibly ignorant and shortsighted.

 

[commandlinegamer]

As someone who remembers the Soviet-era leader deaths, it wouldn't surprise me if he's been in the ground for months.

 

[geni]

I repeat: there is no indication other than this rumor that Khamenei is even sick.

It's not just us who will have to deal with whomever eventually replaces Khamenei.

At this point the world is interconnected enough that you have to deal with the leaders of all countries of any significance.

Arguably, the Iranian people have more stake in the matter than we in the West do, and just the process of going through a regime change will make a huge impact in Iran, particularly given the ongoing "Green Revolution" protests. All of those and other factors (like the power-grab struggle that's been going on over there the last few years) will affect the political situation over there in unknown ways, especially if Khamenei dies without any warning (which this seems to be).

That the world is eventually going to have to go on after Khamenei's death does not address the unpredictability problem I'm talking about if these rumors are true. Having an idea of his health and being capable of preparing contingencies happens to be part and parcel with diplomatic and foreign relations. That this would come up without any further notice seems both strange and, considering the lack of news in Iran on the matter, indicative of a political trick.

Political tricks are generaly not required for rummor mills to get going.

ETA: and none of that addresses my criticism of parky's post as incredibly ignorant and shortsighted.

Except you didn't provide any reasoning or evidence to back that claim other than your flawed better the devil you know argument.

 

[NoZed Avenger]

Are you actually a fan of the Islamist extremist Ayatollah of Iran????

wow.

That is not a fair reading of his statement. That is not even in the same solar system as a fair reading of his statement.

 

[geni]

As someone who remembers the Soviet-era leader deaths, it wouldn't surprise me if he's been in the ground for months.

It would supprise me. He has real internal political enermies who would not keep quiet about something like that. You think Rafsanjani wouldn't make the news known as soon as posible?

If Khamenei were to die tomorrow the position of the revolutionary guard would be weakened. It would leave them with the questionably elected Ahmadinejad as their strongest card within the goverment. In that situation Rafsanjani would gain by bringing matters to a head fast before Ahmadinejad and the revolutionary guard could stengthen their position.

 

[GreNME]

At this point the world is interconnected enough that you have to deal with the leaders of all countries of any significance.

Considering the sanctions on Iran currently by most of the industrialized world, you'll have to forgive me for not taking that assertion seriously on its own merits.

Political tricks are generaly not required for rummor mills to get going.

But in this case the Basiji and IGRC have been known to have been spreading false rumors since June. I'm not arguing a requirement, I'm arguing that they simply haven't stopped.

Except you didn't provide any reasoning or evidence to back that claim other than your flawed better the devil you know argument.

You mean except that I wasn't making the argument you accuse me of making. It's not that the "devil you know" is somehow qualitatively better or worse than whomever may come after, it's that there are power struggles currently taking place in Iranian politics (that parky seems completely ignorant of) that give the possibility of Khamenei's death a likelihood of more negative repercussions than whatever brief satisfaction that Khamenei no longer sucks air might bring.

I'll be happy to get into more detail as soon as parky comes back to either admit his ignorance or attempt more lame insults.

ETA: it appears you've already pointed out some of the detail. I assume you realize how Rafsanjani making a move would provoke the IRGC as well.

 

[WildCat]

As someone who remembers the Soviet-era leader deaths, it wouldn't surprise me if he's been in the ground for months.

We in the Democratic People's Republic of Cook County have a more recent example.

 

[geni]

Considering the sanctions on Iran currently by most of the industrialized world, you'll have to forgive me for not taking that assertion seriously on its own merits.

UK has direct diplomatic relations with iran. US has open dealings through the Swiss and is currently occupying two countries which share boarders with Iran. The leader of Iran is someone we have to deal with (generaly through proxies of course).

You mean except that I wasn't making the argument you accuse me of making. It's not that the "devil you know" is somehow qualitatively better or worse than whomever may come after, it's that there are power struggles currently taking place in Iranian politics (that parky seems completely ignorant of) that give the possibility of Khamenei's death a likelihood of more negative repercussions than whatever brief satisfaction that Khamenei no longer sucks air might bring.

I'll be happy to get into more detail as soon as parky comes back to either admit his ignorance or attempt more lame insults.

ETA: it appears you've already pointed out some of the detail. I assume you realize how Rafsanjani making a move would provoke the IRGC as well.

Of course. But with Khamenei dead the revolutionary guard would find it harder to build political legitimacy. Any revolutionary guard counter move would pretty much force the more neutral parts of the establisment to back Rafsanjani or surrender to revolutionary guard control.

Now the revolutionary guard may decide to deal with the problem by carying out a coup. As time goes by the revolutionary guard's control of the Iranian economy is growing and thus the odds of such a coup happening and being sucessful increase.

At the same time there is no obvious sucessor to Rafsanjani who is himself 75.

This being the case Khamenei dying tomorrow would in all probablility be better then him dying in five years time.

Insinuating that only ignorance could support the position that Khamenei being dead would be a good thing is not supportable position.

 

[GreNME]

Of course. But with Khamenei dead the revolutionary guard would find it harder to build political legitimacy. Any revolutionary guard counter move would pretty much force the more neutral parts of the establisment to back Rafsanjani or surrender to revolutionary guard control.

That's a highly optimistic assessment. Keep in mind that Ahmadi is a former Basiji and has a lot of support from the IRGC. Since Ahmadi's position is one of domestic power anyway, using him as a figurehead provides them with "enough" legitimacy to attempt to close rank on the government. This is, in fact, one of the concerns stemming from back during the election scandal and the subsequent protests, and seems to be a major reason who Moussavi continues to object to the current regime.

Now the revolutionary guard may decide to deal with the problem by carying out a coup. As time goes by the revolutionary guard's control of the Iranian economy is growing and thus the odds of such a coup happening and being sucessful increase.

At the same time there is no obvious sucessor to Rafsanjani who is himself 75.

The IRGC has been taking more and more control of the government since about 2002. Possibly even earlier, if Rafsanjani's history of objection is any indication of the power struggle taking place.

This being the case Khamenei dying tomorrow would in all probablility be better then him dying in five years time.

I disagree completely. Having Ahmadi with no more chances to maintain his seat and given the increased number of youths who would be of voting age (to be even more opposition against hard-liners), in five years time the groups who are doing power grabs now would have to be capable of clamping down even harder than they are on the current protests, which considering the tightrope the regime is already walking would be even harder later.

Insinuating that only ignorance could support the position that Khamenei being dead would be a good thing is not supportable position.

Again, that's not my argument. I'm saying outright that parky's ignorance as to the politics of Iran are the only basis he's using to cheer Khamenei's death, and his response supported that accusation.