I disagree. I think that while he will retain a congressional advantage, I think he will lose seats in both the House and Senate. He's having a hard enough time pushing something divisive about health care through, even with what technically amounts to an overwhelming (filibuster-proof) majority. With forty-five Republicans in the Senate instead of forty, even the equivalent of a three-line whip couldn't guarantee passage of a controversial bill.
It takes 51 votes to pass a change in the rules, but the filibuster could run this bill into the ground. Is that the problem?
I agree with you that this is a risk, but in two years time, he won't be "the new guy" anymore. President Obama will be in a better position to make a stand, or let the GOP make a spectacle of themselves over this bill which in the long term they lose face over, and may cost them in a fight over other legislation.
It may not be Obama -- maybe David Axlrod or a few other advisers -- but my take away on Obama from the election campaign is that he is capable of sound strategic thinking, as well as applying strategy and tactics to a particular problem.
Alt+F4's strongest point for pessimism is "When does this get to a spot on the priority list" and thus get legislative action?
As I mull this over, I better appreciate that concern.
Look at how Bush's inner circle took advantage of the Fundy consituency. (Forget the author, and the book, vintage 2006/2007 that describe this, only read a review). The is politically analogous to the Fundy position on banning abortion: "Why didn't that get to the top of the list?" Or, on the Nativist position "When is Bush gonna fix that border with Mexico?"
Were, or are, perish the thought, the gay voters being used or taken for granted by the Democratic party's strategists?
"They'll never vote GOP, so we can take their vote for granted, no matter what we do on issues X, Y, and Z that our gay constituency cares deeply about."
That is possible. I don't know.
DR