I'm not quite clear which side you are referring to by "they".
Are you suggesting because I saw one reported death of a child with swine flu who went untreated that this is the only data from which I am drawing my conclusion this might be a recurring theme?The medical professionals you are chastizing for failing to fall prey to the availability bias.
www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/availability_bias
Linda
... the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that child deaths from swine flu were 'shooting up" in the United States, with 19 deaths from influenza reported in recent days.
"We're now up to 76 children having died from the 2009 H1N1 virus," said Anne Schuchat, a senior official at the CDC.
"To put that in context, in the past three years, the total pediatric influenza deaths ranged from 46 - 88. We've already had 76 children dying from the H1N1 virus and it's only the beginning of October," Schuchat said.
Are you suggesting because I saw one reported death of a child with swine flu who went untreated that this is the only data from which I am drawing my conclusion this might be a recurring theme?
While I may be using 30 years of anecdotes and my personal bias that influenza is a dangerous virus, I am not merely using the single incident in forming my reaction.
I'll await your clarification before going further with this since I am not certain that is what you were getting at.
And if the 14 yr old in Texas who died was your patient, would you reassess that position?
Just out of curiosity, do you have kids and what age group(s) are they in?
(I'm guessing you didn't read the actual study on that one.)And the benefit the researchers used to weigh the risks against was shortening the symptoms by a day. How about the benefit of preventing death?
It amazes me how much bias there is in the medical community that influenza is a benign disease. I have a much different bias.
Leaving that up to provider judgment is fine in most cases. What I am thinking, however, is there is so much bias in the medical community about influenza that it is biasing that usually more neutral judgment.
This is not how I perceive the discussion in this thread. First, challenging a person to elaborate on their thinking is not "pressuring". If you think that is what I was doing you couldn't be more wrong.You pressured Paximperium on the basis of this example, as though the answers to these questions would be relevant to decision-making.
You state that you have generalized what is available to you - your own experience - such that those who hold a different perspective are disparaged.
(I'm guessing you didn't read the actual study on that one.)
And how did you tell us that the guidelines were inadequate? By referring to a recent example.
It suggests that the example that most easily comes to your mind is used to estimate the prevalence of bias in the medical community.
Linda
39% of patients received antiviral therapy within 48 hours after the onset of symptoms. Among 195 patients for whom the date of the initiation of antiviral therapy was available, such therapy was started before admission in 18 patients (9%), on admission in 86 patients (44%), within 48 hours after admission in 61 patients (31%), and more than 48 hours after admission in 30 patients (15%)....
Of the 19 patients who died, 90% received antiviral drugs, and all received antibiotics. The median time from the onset of illness to the initiation of antiviral therapy was 8 days (range, 3 to 20); none of the patients who died received antiviral therapy within 48 hours after the onset of symptoms.
Patients who were admitted to an ICU and those who died were more likely than patients who were not admitted to an ICU to have shortness of breath, a neurologic disorder, radiographically confirmed pneumonia, ARDS, or sepsis; they were also more likely to have received antimicrobial agents or corticosteroids (Table 4, and Table 2 in the Supplementary Appendix). In addition, patients who were admitted to an ICU and those who died were older, were less likely to have been vaccinated for influenza during the 2008–2009 season, and had a longer time between the onset of illness and the initiation of antiviral therapy, as compared with patients who were not admitted to an ICU. In a multivariable model that included age, admission within 2 days or more than 2 days after the onset of illness, initiation of antiviral therapy within 2 days or more than 2 days after the onset of illness, and influenza-vaccination status, the only variable that was significantly associated with a positive outcome was the receipt of antiviral drugs within 2 days after the onset of illness.
This is not how I perceive the discussion in this thread.
This comment is not relevant to this discussion.Your perception does not define the reality for everyone else on the planet. This is the single greatest flaw of your entire line of arguments in this thread.
This is not how I perceive the discussion in this thread. First, challenging a person to elaborate on their thinking is not "pressuring". If you think that is what I was doing you couldn't be more wrong.
This comment is not relevant to this discussion.
The case of the 14 yr old greatly increased my concern about the problem of having no criteria which would clearly indicate a 'serious' case of influenza in a healthy child within the critical first 48 hours.Then why bring up the case of the 14-year-old girl or bring up Pax's existent or non-existent children, at all?
Linda
For what it's worth, I think you are absolutely spot on with all of this. I would add this:While I would certainly criticize the provider who didn't initiate Tamiflu for a pregnant woman with influenza (as this is clear in the medical standard), I would not criticize a provider who was following CDC guidelines and had a different assessment from me about what constituted CDC's ill defined 'serious' case.
Thank you. I appreciate hearing that and I'm saddened Linda has taken my posts in the way she has.For what it's worth, I think you are absolutely spot on with all of this.
Interesting point. A couple cases of Tamiflu resistance in Japan have turned up in people who've never been treated with Tamiflu. The assumption is the resistance must have been transmitted. Japan used lots of Tamiflu early on in the H5N1 outbreak as they had a few cases there. And Tamiflu resistance is almost 100% in the seasonal H1N1. It is bound to occur and it will certainly be selected for eventually in the 2009 strain.I would add this:
Conserving Tamiflu as a strategy for preventing the development of resistance is a good idea. But there's no guarantee that it will work. Even if a total moratorium on the use of oseltamivir were implemented today, it's entirely possible that this virus could aquire resistance anyway -- just as 100% of the isolates tested (along with 100% of the seasonal H3N2 isolates and, in some countries, the seasonal H1N1 as well) already show resistance to the M2 inhibitors amantadine and rimantadine -- despite the use of those drugs having been virtually negligible during the couple of years following the 2006 CDC interim recommendation that they not be prescribed.
Conserving Tamiflu in order to insure adequate supplies later in the season is also a good idea, but it's worth keeping in mind that resistance, if should develop, may develop quickly. We could end up with a whole lot of doses of a drug that is no longer very effective even if it IS administered within 48 hours (or, even better, on first onset of symptoms).
I really think you are confusing my passion regarding this issue with criticism of other providers.
skeptigirl said:Thank you. I appreciate hearing that and I'm saddened Linda has taken my posts in the way she has.For what it's worth, I think you are absolutely spot on with all of this.
Linda, what I don't know is why are you responding with such hostility? I have tried repeatedly to state and restate what I've posted. You've completely misconstrued what I've said into some attack on Paxi. I cannot for the life of me figure out why.WTF?
Unless you intended the last half of your sentence to be a total non sequitor from the first half of your sentence, are you actually under the impression that you have any idea whatsoever whether or not I think you are spot on with your concerns? Because I haven't said anything at all about that particular issue. It looks like you are presuming that I disagree with you simply because I questioned you on a different issue.
Linda
Linda, what I don't know is why are you responding with such hostility?
I have tried repeatedly to state and restate what I've posted. You've completely misconstrued what I've said into some attack on Paxi. I cannot for the life of me figure out why.
However, I will try one more time to correct your misconception by answering your above post. Give me a few minutes if you are reading this before I have done so.
That is correct.No. I'm really just looking for an answer to the question that I asked. You are under no obligation to actually answer it.
You appeared to ask Paximperium, on two occasions, specifically whether the presence of an available example (that he had a recent experience of a 14-year-old patient dying from influenza or that he has a personal experience of a parent's concern for their child) would lead him to alter his decision-making process,
I can cite a number of evidences SOME in the medical community underestimate the risk of influenza in an otherwise healthy child. I do believe this bias affects assessment of the need for Tamiflu in an otherwise healthy child with confirmed case of flu. (see the last 2 paragraphs)...which would presumably include estimates of the severity of disease in general (else why would you refer several times to the general inability of the medical community to accurately estimate the severity of disease compared to your skillz).
Is there any reason I should not express my opinion on the matter? This really sounds like you object to the fact I expressed a disagreement with Paxi's opinion.When he pointed out that the use of available examples is considered irrelevant to clinical decision-making, you didn't leave it at that. You came back to him with the statement that it is relevant.
Availability heuristicWPNow, if you're wondering why clinical decisions are being made that are different from yours, I have to wonder whether part of that might be due to your use of an availability bias vs. Paximperium's attempt not to use this bias.
The availability heuristic is a phenomenon (which can result in a cognitive bias) in which people predict the frequency of an event, or a proportion within a population, based on how easily an example can be brought to mind.
I think many in the medical community do need to reassess this particular medical decision.It only appears that that was what you were doing, and I don't know if that's what you do in real life. We can easily get carried away with our rhetoric here. But I am curious as to whether you really think that Paximperium should be changing his decision-making process to take into account available examples. And if not, why did you you question him on the basis of those examples if you didn't think that they would possibly alter his decisions?
Linda
Is there any reason I should not express my opinion on the matter? This really sounds like you object to the fact I expressed a disagreement with Paxi's opinion.
Availability heuristicWP
Besides the fact the fatality I used as an example does represent all the aspects of the problem I am trying to discuss here, there is a reason I asked about the impact such a case would have if it were one's own patient.
What would I expect a provider to learn from having their own decision result in a fatality vs someone else's decision? That's not that hard to explain. When you are assessing a decision made by another, you have to imagine how the patient presented. If you have a particular bias flu is a benign infection in an otherwise healthy child you might imagine the child didn't look too bad when she presented in the physician's office. You imagine the child took a rapid turn for the worse.
If you were the provider who saw the child, you don't have to imagine. You know how the child presented. Whatever bias you had about the seriousness of influenza in an otherwise healthy child will now likely be reassessed.
I don't know Paxi's flu biases. They sound very reasonable. But I don't think the question was unreasonable.
skeptigirl said:And if the 14 yr old in Texas who died was your patient, would you reassess that position?I would prescribe tamiflu to any of the at risk groups. Younger children, chronic illness, elderly, pregnant and maybe their caretakers. I would not have prescribe tamiflu to a healthy 14year old.
I think many in the medical community do need to reassess this particular medical decision.
The compliance with flu vaccine among health care workers in light of the infection control expertise encouraging vaccination of all health care workers, the number of health care providers, physicians and nurses alike, who tell their patients flu vaccine is not safer than flu,
the number of people who should have gotten Tamiflu because they did meet the criteria yet were not prescribed it:
all attest to the fact that many in the medical community have an under estimation of the actual risk influenza infection poses.
You are welcome to present the reasons why you think I am overestimating the hazard flu infection poses. I assume that is what you meant to suggest by "availability bias".
I'll take your word for it I have overestimated your hostility in this thread.
Have you never bounced ideas and feelings about your practice off your colleagues? Does it always have to be a cross examination to re ask a question emphasizing a particular part of it?...
So when this exchange took place: ...you didn't mean, "would you reassess the position that you would not prescribe tamiflu to a healthy 14year old", but rather, you meant, "would you reassess the position that you are able to identify severe disease in someone who is healthy?"
That you dropped your cross-examination of Paximperium after he explained how he goes about determining severity seems to confirm this.
That's out of context....That they are able to identify whether someone has severe disease?
I can't believe you are seriously asking for documentation that health care workers, like much of the rest of the population, believe in myths about influenza infection and vaccine....Can you provide a summary or a reference for this data?
Only three schools (19%) required or recommended influenza vaccination,
A lack of perceived personal need was the most common reason for vaccine refusal, given in 30% (77/258) of unvaccinated respondents.
A media scare which occurred during the vaccination period was reported to have influenced the decision not to get immunized of 34.1% of HCW who had not been immunized.
Almost 70% of those not immunized perceived themselves to be 'healthy' and gave this reason for declining immunization.
I'll provide this in a follow up post. This assessment is more complex.Can you provide a summary or a reference for this data? It is interesting that they are collecting this data (I have ulterior motives - I am always looking for novel sources of systematic collections of data).
In addition to what I addressed about this already, it is rather idealistic to think one's experiences with certain significant cases do not affect one's practice. Pediatric deaths have a huge impact on most providers.Well, if we follow your suggestion and any particular case is meant to lead us to reassess our clinical judgement, any particular practitioner will be more likely to encounter cases where tamiflu was unnecessary, rather than cases where tamiflu was necessary. If you want to suggest that the consideration of individual cases may lead to reassessment, then you shouldn't be surprised if most of that reassessment leads to concluding that the use of tamiflu is unnecessary.
"having cared for patients suffering from severe influenza" (P = .031) were significantly associated with compliance with influenza vaccination.
I'm sorry if you are having a bad week. I think you are one of the nicest posters on the forum and I love your sense of humor. But you do seem annoyed in this thread.Please don't. You addressed my question. And this is the third time this has happened this week (the other two situations were with my kids' teachers) - I didn't get a response until someone thought I was mad. This gives me the idea that I need to expand my repertoire.
Linda