For example: “All crows I have seen are black, therefore IT IS LIKELY all crows are black.” is STILL nonsense! It is a big universe. There may be a pocket of jungle out there containing more white crows than all the so far observed black ones. .
One last time concerning "All crows are black", as has been repeated to you a heap of times so far (increasing the likely hood you wont get it this time either) I don't think anyone so far has or is arguing that "all crows are black". Yet you seem to be arguing with this imaginary view point all the same.
OK, back to the actual conversation.
If everyone you've ever met in your life had 2 feet, the chance of the next person you meet having 2 feet is higher than the next person having 3/4/5/6/7/8... feet. You, I would assume, don't think it more or equally likely the next person you will meet has 6 feet? Possible yes, but less likely than the next person having 2 feet.
If all crows you've ever seen were uniformly black the same applies. The more black crows you find in a continued absence of white/red/blue/purple crows increases the probability that the next one is likely to be black also. Find a multicoloured crow and the probability changes.
In your logic the amount of things that become
probable is astounding, now we have removed evidence as a pre-requisite. Any and all woo that has yet to have a shred of confirming evidence is now probable!
Bring us evidence and the probabilties change, I would
love to know aliens had visited us. It would probably be one of the most exciting days of my life. But currently
in absence of evidence it is just as likely as everything else we don't currently have evidence for: flying teapots, faeries, physics of choosing, that I slept with the queen etc.
Possible, but based on the evidence unlikely.
You
honestly don't get that?