Information on Protocol for Pavel Ziborov Applicant

[GzuzKryzt]

Rodney, you seem to be on Pavel's side, hence permit me this inquiry please: From what you can see on the JREF Forum, do you think the JREF acted fraudulently in Pavel's case?

 

[Rodney]

Rodney, you seem to be on Pavel's side, hence permit me this inquiry please: From what you can see on the JREF Forum, do you think the JREF acted fraudulently in Pavel's case?

More likely incompetently rather than fraudulently. It's pretty obvious that whoever was involved in processing Pavel's application does not know enough about statistics to devise a fair test for someone who is claiming a 70% hit rate, when 50% would be expected by chance.

 

[jsfisher]

More likely incompetently rather than fraudulently. It's pretty obvious that whoever was involved in processing Pavel's application does not know enough about statistics to devise a fair test for someone who is claiming a 70% hit rate, when 50% would be expected by chance.

Let's be clear: Pavel has yet to claim a hit rate. He's speculated as high as 90%, but he hasn't committed to anything. He did, however, offer 67% as something he felt he could meet or exceed in a specific 100-test trial.

Also, it is not the JREF's responsibility to see to it the test is fair to the claimant. That's the claimant's responsibility. The JREF should make sure the test is fair to the JREF.

 

[Rodney]

Let's be clear: Pavel has yet to claim a hit rate. He's speculated as high as 90%, but he hasn't committed to anything. He did, however, offer 67% as something he felt he could meet or exceed in a specific 100-test trial.

So why didn't the JREF accept that 100-trial protocol?

Also, it is not the JREF's responsibility to see to it the test is fair to the claimant. That's the claimant's responsibility. The JREF should make sure the test is fair to the JREF.

By fair to the JREF, do you mean: "The applicant won't pass even if he has the claimed ability"?

 

[jsfisher]

So why didn't the JREF accept that 100-trial protocol?

Excellent question. One best answered by the JREF, don't you think?

By fair to the JREF, do you mean: "The applicant won't pass even if he has the claimed ability"?

No, not at all. But for the case at hand, what specifically is the claimed ability?

 

[Startz]

... for the case at hand, what specifically is the claimed ability?

The claimed ability is that when presented with 100 pairs of envelopes that "sixty-seven or more of Ziborov's announced responses match the photographs within his chosen envelopes." (The quote is from JREF's posted proposed protocol.)

 

[jsfisher]

The claimed ability is that when presented with 100 pairs of envelopes that "sixty-seven or more of Ziborov's announced responses match the photographs within his chosen envelopes." (The quote is from JREF's posted proposed protocol.)

Pavel does not claim his success rate is 67%. It appears the 67-out-of-100 may have been back-figured, as the 0.1% mark for blind luck in a sequence of 100 50/50 tests. He has implied his real number is much higher, but he won't commit to something more specific. Without this number, we cannot really tell how fair or unfair a given test might be to Pavel.

 

[Startz]

Pavel does not claim his success rate is 67%. It appears the 67-out-of-100 may have been back-figured, as the 0.1% mark for blind luck in a sequence of 100 50/50 tests. He has implied his real number is much higher, but he won't commit to something more specific. Without this number, we cannot really tell how fair or unfair a given test might be to Pavel.

Well put and perfectly fair. Yes, the 67/100 was back figured. I did the back figuring, and I think several other forum participants did as well. The "back figuring" was to ensure that the test met what appears to be the preferred JREF standard for a preliminary test, 1 out of 1,000.

I agree that we can't really say whether whether this is fair or unfair to Pavel. However, we can tell how fair or unfair the test is to JREF because they (at least implicitly) claim an underlying success rate of 50 percent. So JREF's chances are 999/1000 if they are right. However Pavel figures his success rate, he's willing to chance the 67/100 test.

 

[steenkh]

So why didn't the JREF accept that 100-trial protocol?

I often wonder why the JREF is so much against setting up expensive or long tests, when they do have a rule that says that the claimant will have to pay for the testing. For some reason they want to save the claimant's money, and it may be because they do not want to cause huge expenses for obviously deluded persons, or even that they do not want the negative publicity involved with people who are obviously deluded, or in some cases, mentally ill, who lose a fortune in this way.

Another reason why they do not accept long tests might be because they think that tester fatigue may open a window of opportunity for the claimants to act fraudulently, or it makes protocol breaches more likely, with subsequent retesting being necessary.

 

[Cuddles]

The claimed ability is that when presented with 100 pairs of envelopes that "sixty-seven or more of Ziborov's announced responses match the photographs within his chosen envelopes." (The quote is from JREF's posted proposed protocol.)

That is not the claimed ability, it is part of the protocol. The claimed ability is whatever was actually claimed on the application that was sent in before any negotiations began.

Well put and perfectly fair. Yes, the 67/100 was back figured. I did the back figuring, and I think several other forum participants did as well. The "back figuring" was to ensure that the test met what appears to be the preferred JREF standard for a preliminary test, 1 out of 1,000.

And this back figuring is a big problem. As I noted earlier, the tests it was back figured from were not taken in order to work out accuracy, they were testing several different protocols to see which might be the best (in the sense of having the highest score, not necessarily best in terms of controls or ease of setup). That's not any use at all.

And this has been the problem with this application all along. Pavel has no idea with what accuracy or under what conditions he can perform. Again as I said earlier, these are the fundamental things he has to know before he can sensibly propose any kind of protocol. Regardless of how much the JREF has delayed in the negotiations (and this is not the only time I've been less than impressed with their communication abilities), Pavel should have known the details before any negotiations started, he's had 2 years in the meantime to work it out, yet he still doesn't know the answer. He's accepted an answer some other people tried to work out for him, but that answer is, quite frankly, nonsense, being based on a tiny number of inconsistent tests.

If only it would be all simple.. Ye.. you state your limits and accuracy and they accept it..

OK then, go ahead. State your limits and accuracy. Not numbers that have been fed to you by others based on a few self-tests you've reported no this forum - tell us your actual ability and its accuracy.

but ONLY after wards they tell you.. well.. you cant really run in your usual conditions, you cant wear your usual comfortable shoos, cause they might give you advantage..How about you do it in 2 sizes less of yours.. and it should rain too..to make sure u CAN perform under any conditions.. cause you confident you can..why not.. OH.. you cant perform it this way... than.. YOU FAKE TIME WAISTER...BYE... whos next??

And perhaps you could enlighten us on what this has to do with anything? The JREF has set limits on the time allowed and on the success rate you have to achieve. As far as I'm aware they have not said anything about the conditions under which you must perform, and this is certainly the first time you have complained about it.

Ye you wouldn't if it would be told you before all the negotiation started or soon after claim was accepted.. But they say it in the end as you can see... can you??? You can, if you really read threads and negotiation... ( nevertheless I didn't not violet THEIR time limit of 8 hours.. I am not asking for 9 or 10..

This has nothing to do with the paragraph you replied to.

(though if it would be up to me, I would ask for a week of testing lets say 50 pairs each day for 5 days.. that would FOR SURE be fair test and would allow me and any other applicant to prove to JREF there ability if they have any...) but as we know JREF is not scientific team or researchers.. they are challenge thats all..

I'm glad you understand that. If you really want to investigate your claims thoroughly, the JREF is not the correct place for you to come. Neither is any other paranormal challenge. However, if you really do wish such investigation to take place, you will have to do far more work yourself first. As noted above and in my previous post, in over 2 years you have failed to make it clear what you think you can do, under what circumstances and with what accuracy. Scientific investigation does not just happen for everyone who has an idea, you need to show that investigation may actually be worthwhile. So far you have not done anywhere near enough to interest any serious researchers.

I guess you dont see how it is really IS.. and it is not as simple as presented from JREF side...

Again, that has nothing to do with the part you replied to. I was addressing Rodney's post, not anything to do with you.

I think Startz (thanks to him) asnwered your question.. For past year that you talking about..the delay on JREF's side was about 9 month..12-9=3 ... So JREF 9 month Pavel/Startz 3...can you see the difference??

And what difference does that make? 12 months or 3 months, the JREF had already reached the point where they were ready to give up, then carried on for months afterwards. And again, it was things you should have been able to answer before you even applied that caused the main problems.

The last thing.. YOU HAVE TO STATE YOUR ACCURACY when you send your claim.. That I DID.

What accuracy did you state in your claim? Why did you later accept a completely different accuracy based on a few tests you reported here if you already knew your accuracy? Why have you never given a simple, clear answer when asked what your accuracy is?

And they not asking you to state in advance how much time you need for that...

As GzuzKryzt already noted, the very first and most important rule of the challenge clearly states that you must state the time required. Perhaps this whole sags would have gone more smoothly if you'd paid a bit more attention to the rules.

And as we all know, or at least as most people knows, that JREF DO NOT discuss any details of test or performance or what ever. BEFORE YOU SENT INN YOUR APPLICATION .. thats is really complicate things too..You can see from threads that before my application was accepted and sent inn.. I tried many times to find out details and conditions to make sure I have proper applications but to get the reply it was like ask Queen to come down for a tea..

I can understand it may be frustrating not to get much help from them before you apply, but it really shouldn't be necessary. The whole point is that you are already supposed to know exactly what you can do, how you can do it and how reliably you can do it. The protocol negotiations are supposed to be about working out the little details to make sure proper controls are in place. It shouldn't be necessary to guide an applicant along every step of working out what they can do and when.

So I had to do allot of different tests and tried ways from Zener cards to pairs and triples and 5th what ever..

Perhaps you're forgetting. The thing that originally brought you to the attention of people on this forum was your performances with Zener cards, and you specifically said that you found them easier to see than photos. You now say that you find photos easier. Similarly, you were the one that tried to insist on a set of 5 photos you liked while other people were encouraging you to go as simply as possible with pairs. You should be careful about trying to blame other people when your story changes, since your words are preserved here for all to see.

during process and it would really save allot of time to me and JREF if they would only respond to questions and inquires cause they were directly related to test and application.. I didn't asked them something which is non of my business or out of boredom I would liked to know..

The point is, most of the stuff you would have liked to know is stuff that is your responsibility to find out. If you can only see photos and not Zener cards, you need to tell the JREF that. If you find it easier with pairs or with 5 photos, you need to tell the JREF that. If the envelopes need to be opened straight away or can wait until later, you need to tell the JREF that. It's your claim, you're supposed to know how it works. If you tell the JREF a condition that they won't agree to, you can either try to work around it or just drop the test. Either they accept whatever you tell them, or dismiss your claim as untestable. Faffing around asking the JREF questions about your own ability was never going to get you anywhere.


In fact, I was just having a look back at some of the older thread. Not only have the claims about what you can see and how accurate is changed, the fundamental basis of the claim is different. When you first came here you were talking about telepathy and having someone transmit images of the Zener cards to you, but the claim has now evolved into you seeing them with no-one else involved. I was only criticising the lack of detail before, but it seems that you really have no idea what you can do at all.

 

[Moochie]

So why didn't the JREF accept that 100-trial protocol?


By fair to the JREF, do you mean: "The applicant won't pass even if he has the claimed ability"?

This is so tiresome. Does anyone truly believe that persistence will bring rewards -- when it's persistence in banging one's head against a brick wall?

Almost anyone can see how utterly ridiculous this is. If Pavel or anyone had anything like the sorts of abilities claimed they'd be signing multimillion dollar contracts and living the high life, not petulantly prodding the JREF to hand over the cash.

Pavel, you (Rodney), and everybody else knows that there's nothing to stop anyone from proudly displaying their fantastic abilities to the entire world. They aren't doing so because in all likelihood such abilities are merely figments of overactive imaginations, or perhaps just some poor shyster's plot to make an easy buck.

Whatever it is, all that's being accomplished here is the provision of some light relief, away from the real world where people actually have to perform as they say they can in order to earn an honest living.

Keep it up, guys, but personally, I'd like to see something a little more intellectually stimulating than what's being offered here -- this plot's getting old very quickly.


M.

 

[Rodney]

If Pavel or anyone had anything like the sorts of abilities claimed they'd be signing multimillion dollar contracts and living the high life, not petulantly prodding the JREF to hand over the cash.

Not necessarily, if from the public's perspective, the ability is unspectacularly above what would be expected by chance. Pavel's proposed protocol calls for him to be correct in selecting one of two envelopes two-thirds of the time, when being correct one-half of the time would be expected by chance. If he can achieve that two-thirds percentage over hundreds of controlled trials, that would be overwhelming proof of the paranormal, but would hardly make for an exciting stage show. So, he would need to be able to translate his ability into something practical, such as correctly predicting two-thirds of the time a roulette wheel landing on red or black. However, it could be that his ability is so specialized that it would be difficult to turn it into a big moneymaker.

 

[Paul2]

Rodney, wouldn't the scientific community trumpeting Pavel's 67% success rate, because they are capable of understanding the significance of his achievement, communicate effectively to the public what they couldn't understand without it? Wouldn't the eventual Nobel Prize grab the public's attention? Wouldn't the chapters re-writing nearly every science textbook be enough?

 

[GzuzKryzt]

...if...would...If...would...would...would...could...would...

There's your problem.

A bit of a cheap shot but one gets the point, right?

 

[fromdownunder]

Here is the thing. If I could do a test of 100 paired photographs/blank photographic paper and claimed a success rate of 67%, even if the odds are 1000/1, and if I could test it locally (a couple of train fares to Melbourne, and the initial test with a local sceptics group), it would cost me next to nothing. I would even agree to one minute per pair, with no pee break, which means the whole test would take less than two hours. I would do it in a public park, so that there are no hiring of accomodation costs, and bring my daughter as the "true believer" at no cost (well, I may have to buy her lunch. Hell, I'll do lunch for the Sceptics group as well, win or lose.

So, through blind chance, I pass the first test - it is possible, as somebody wins lotto every week at blindingly high odds, I get to the final challenge. That already gives me bragging rights, and the lecture circuit to woo crowds for the rest of my life. The woos would probably even pay for my overseas trip, and turn up in droves to see my "talent" in action

The return of doing two such tests (preliminary and final), even if they do total at 1,000,000/1 and the cost, based on a cost benefit analysis, would mean it costs, in the absolute worst case for me, maybe $1,000 (if I have not missed something) and the benefit would be $1,000,000. Pretty good odds. If I fail, no biggie - well worth the try. If I win, well, I still do not have THE POWER, but I do have One Million Dollars.

Is that what the challenge is really about? Does JREF really want to, or need to test these sort of claims? Especially since thousands of would be Millionairres like me could start lining up and making this sort of claim.

Norm

 

[Garrette]

Not necessarily, if from the public's perspective, the ability is unspectacularly above what would be expected by chance. Pavel's proposed protocol calls for him to be correct in selecting one of two envelopes two-thirds of the time, when being correct one-half of the time would be expected by chance. If he can achieve that two-thirds percentage over hundreds of controlled trials, that would be overwhelming proof of the paranormal, but would hardly make for an exciting stage show. So, he would need to be able to translate his ability into something practical, such as correctly predicting two-thirds of the time a roulette wheel landing on red or black. However, it could be that his ability is so specialized that it would be difficult to turn it into a big moneymaker.

As has been mentioned in other threads at other times, this is not representative of the nature of such claims nor of Pavel's initial claim.

Pavel did not come here because he had an ability that was hard to parse from mundane guessing. He came here because--without doing any controlled tests on his own to verify it--he was convinced he had a spectacular ability. Not spectacular in the "stage show" sense, but spectacular in the sense it was obvious.

Yet again we are left picking at the margins because 67% is apparently too difficult. Since that is the case, how on earth did Pavel conclude he had this ability at all?

The MDC is not an investigative mechanism for claimants to discover if they have a claim or what the nature of their alleged abilities are.

It is a challenge for people who know their abilities to demonstrate it.

Pavel doesn't know what his ability is nor how it can be demonstrated. Why on earth, then, did he even apply?

JREF set itself up for a PR nightmare with this by accepting the undefined claim. If they had simply turned it down until Pavel had defined his claim, there would be no issue, but much like anyone who tries to go the extra mile, they got the black eye when they slammed into the brick wall at the end of it.

 

[fromdownunder]

JREF set itself up for a PR nightmare with this by accepting the undefined claim.

Bingo!

Norm

 

[Pixel42]

how on earth did Pavel conclude he had this ability at all?

That's the question, isn't it? It's always the first question to ask with every new applicant. From Pavel's recent posts (especially the one where he admitted that he ocasionally does much worse than chance) the answer seems clear: confirmation bias, perhaps combined with an early run of good luck. There's no ability here, there never has been, which is why pinning it down and measuring it consistently has proved impossible.

 

[pavel_do]

Well what can I say.. Its easy for you so to say Bla-bla-bla.. and ask me why on earth I think I have it.. I HAVE it and why on earth u DONT I don't know, and why on earth you stating that i dont have it before proving me wrong??? I said that my results some times were lower... What do you want me to LIE?? Why on earth some one decided that it has to be always 100% hits...??
And re to casino and stage offer.. I explained about casino already many times.. reread posts if some one interested!
What can I say.. you don't believe in my ability.. You WOLCOME to test me, I will pay photos envelopes and tea... until you did not proved me wrong did not witnessed anything... STOP “making me guilty” so to say..

You just comfortable not giving a chance to anyone and yourself to think that world can e different from what you used to believe it is.
I don't have anything more to say, but if you don't believe in my gift.. YOU WELCOME TO DO TEST!

 

[pavel_do]

Rodney, wouldn't the scientific community trumpeting Pavel's 67% success rate, because they are capable of understanding the significance of his achievement, communicate effectively to the public what they couldn't understand without it? Wouldn't the eventual Nobel Prize grab the public's attention? Wouldn't the chapters re-writing nearly every science textbook be enough?

I am sure they would! But how can they if they don't do such tests? Or even JREF don't do it, and just dismiss it as too expansive Do you know of any scientist who would find a bit of spare time and have some interest in testing me?? I will be glad if you or anyone lets can refer me to... some one who has name so to say... as Letter from unknown to me before testing PhD professors from University in N.C not really prove cause there COULD NOT EXPLANE MY RESULTS... I guess any other letter would be considered self made by me, unless its WORLD REKNOWN people.. well.. thous WORLD Known people.. usually not bothered find time for 100 pair test.. and what they do,.,.they refer to JREF... saying.. there is JREF for 20 years NO ONE ever came close.. so when some one come maybe they will look in to it, and I am sure they will... if only JREF would test people and don't hide behind expanse and time limit..that is again.. 8 hours it TREIR limit and I did not asked for more.. the test could be much less maybe 5-6 hours.. But I don't want to be rushed and if I can have more space to rest and not be be MORE pressurized why shouldn't I??