Information on Protocol for Pavel Ziborov Applicant

[Marcus]

Yeah your right Randi is running scared he always stops any preliminary testing when he realises that he has found a real paranormal claimant and not just a nutbar Randi is psychic like that

This part is dissapointing. I can see Pavel's point about being dismissed too quickly by Randi, but pulling out this tired old argument used by every failed claimant makes him look like just another woo.

 

[Pup]

I may have mentioned this a few months ago somewhere in this long journey, but if a small number of people have the ability to see or predict what hidden pictures will be revealed, there's already the biggest test in the world out there for them: casinos.

If someone can know what a face-down card will be before it's turned over, even a tiny fraction better than chance, they can get rich, and lord knows there are enough people trying to do it, so it wouldn't be a dormant ability that humans haven't tried to develop.

If such an ability exists, why don't we see it among gamblers? Or do we? Are there any successful gamblers who have claimed or been accused of having that power?

 

[pavel_do]

"

Again .. do the test somewhere else there are many skeptic groups through out the world , then you can show Randi to be the fraud you know he is, right?

I definitely will!

" Although Randi will send his vibes to any where you go his magic is as strong or maybe stronger than Yoda! Also Jeff wagg has no bladder so he would never have pee'd at all! Ask Vff she will confirm that...

Enough is enough!

 

[pavel_do]

This part is dissapointing. I can see Pavel's point about being dismissed too quickly by Randi, but pulling out this tired old argument used by every failed claimant makes him look like just another woo.

What do you want me to do? Just keep silent and not answer all this "jumps" at me?? Or just say.. JREF is fake.. end of story??
I am explaining my point, I though it is useful in making people to understand where it comes from...
I see it now just useless, cause some people just don't care about point, and all they do is just jump on others by comparing them to all the predecessors..

I have real issue with JREF, they refusing fair protocol and pushed me to the doomed one that guarantees their win.. and Its not only about me, it can happen to EVERY applicant as I said it before, every who is reasonable with his ability and conditions that it can be performed..! But you clearly understand it same as many other, its just more convenient to ignore it..

And I am not

every failed claimant

I never won same as never failed as I were simple refused FAIR chance to prove that my claim is real... and there is nothing to add isn't it??
FULL STOP!

 

[pavel_do]

I may have mentioned this a few months ago somewhere in this long journey, but if a small number of people have the ability to see or predict what hidden pictures will be revealed, there's already the biggest test in the world out there for them: casinos.

If someone can know what a face-down card will be before it's turned over, even a tiny fraction better than chance, they can get rich, and lord knows there are enough people trying to do it, so it wouldn't be a dormant ability that humans haven't tried to develop.

There is a point, and there is many reasons to explain it.. first of all, Casino does not give you chance to HOLD and think what you think the card is, they not let you cover your eyes and keep silence.. all the games happens to be very fast and not giving you chance to think or be reasonable as far as I know, plus all the noise that Machines make when drop coins or when they just make noise to attract attentions to slots ( both done on purpose) plus all people around you and camera, plus the emotions and though of people, plus brain that will start to assume that after 4 times black red have more chance to come up..( though i tell you, i have witnessed myself when Black came up 43! times in row at the Roulette table, and same number came up 4 times in row and people were angry and some of them start accuse casino ion trickery but in fact red or black or same number can come up all day long as every time ball been spin it has same chances to to come up again as any other number) and of course obviously GREED that screws up it all too... and I guess some others, depends on person ability and specifics of it..

If someone can know what a face-down card will be before it's turned over, even a tiny fraction better than chance, they can get rich, and lord knows there are enough people trying to do it, so it wouldn't be a dormant ability that humans haven't tried to develop.

Even if you can do it as you say with just tiny fraction... but a part of this ability you need some environmental conditions that i said before to illuminate many distractions that casino create on purpose.. plus you need patience and have to be ably cold control yourself and not to rush things..and of course have enough money with you in order to be able to gain from the "fracture" difference, bearing in mind that the ability works! but not 100 % and every game, spin, draw or what ever... if you have enough patience and money and time to invest I am sure you can get somewhere with it.. UNTIL casino ban you and since all the other casinos mostly have same networks.. you will be band from most of normal casinos..
People to greedy, no one come to casino to place let say 10$ gain 10$ and go home.. people come to win fortune battling odds that are against them..
You cant beat casino! That the fact! Unless you know what will come up.. there is no systems or any calculations its all useless for the reason I said above, cause every numebr has same chance to come up as all the others any time new game started...

If such an ability exists, why don't we see it among gamblers? Or do we? Are there any successful gamblers who have claimed or been accused of having that power?

I think casinos well aware if this possibility... and if there is a way try to find out from any big casinos maybe in Vegas, I am sure they though of it or maybe have some policy to protect themselves by banning person from playing..

 

[GzuzKryzt]

I definitely will!

Enough is enough!

Pavel, ask the JREF to re-open your file, if you see grounds that you have been treated unfairly or even fraudulent.

Sounding off to a bunch of non-believers in an internet forum proves nothing - besides your ability to sound off to a bunch of non-believers in an internet forum.

 

[Marcus]

What do you want me to do? Just keep silent and not answer all this "jumps" at me?? Or just say.. JREF is fake.. end of story??

There isn't anything I want you to do, really. You explained why you need more than 20 trials, and why a number of pictures have to be used, and I agree with you that Randi was too hasty and probably treated you unfairly.

I was merely explaining why a lot of us lost respect for you when you trotted out the "Randi is scared of me because he knows I have psychic powers" defense.

 

[Moochie]

ONLY 67%?! If Pavel can do that consistently, it would be phenomenal. I think the main problem may be that many Randi Forum participants, including Randi himself, think that the paranormal is an all or nothing thing. It should be thought of more like an athletic competition, where sometimes a great athlete is "on" and sometimes s/he is "off." However, over time, s/he performs at a much higher level than the average athlete does. That's why a 20-trial test is woefully insufficient to test Pavel's alleged paranormal ability, just as only a 20-trial test would be woefully insufficient to test a golfer's ability or a baseball player's ability.

In other words, it should be thought of as more like a crap-shoot, where one can have a winning streak. Why not just go to a casino?


M.

 

[Marcus]

Pavel, ask the JREF to re-open your file, if you see grounds that you have been treated unfairly or even fraudulent.

Sounding off to a bunch of non-believers in an internet forum proves nothing - besides your ability to sound off to a bunch of non-believers in an internet forum.

Pavel perhaps you should request your file to be reopened, with a VERY brief explanation of why you require more trials and cards, and plead confusion because of the language barrier. Perhaps Starz or someone can edit it for you so the English is very clear. I know it's a longshot, Randi made his decision, but perhaps if someone like Allison is in sympathy with you she could plead your case to Randi.

 

[steenkh]

Or Pavel could spend the next year ensuring that the next application is well-prepared.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

Or Pavel could spend the next year ensuring that the next application is well-prepared.

Pavel points seem:

1. He feels treated unfairly, unjustly or even fraudulently.

2. He does not agree that the JREF abandoned the 100 trial protocol when it worked for them all the time before.

3. He is ready to go now.

Hence it makes perfect sense to ask for a re-opening now, and not in about a year from now.

 

[Rodney]

In other words, it should be thought of as more like a crap-shoot, where one can have a winning streak. Why not just go to a casino?

It's just the opposite: In a short test, an applicant could have a lucky streak, but that's highly improbable in a long test; i.e., a lucky streak might occur in a long test, but it would be cancelled out by the average or below average performance on the rest of the test, causing the applicant not to meet the specified performance criterion.

 

[jsfisher]

I don't believe.. I can tell you from my tests (whether some one believe in it or not) I have about 70% some times a bit more some times a bit less, though some times as I said I "guess" 9 photos right out of ten but I cant say I have 90% success rate. S So the 70% figure of success rate its comes out if I sum up the results and will not make this conclusion on 1-2 tests. I can see where is your number 67% come from.. well I claim 67 correct photos out of 100 just because that the minimum I can claim in order to enter preliminary test as 67 correct will cover 1000 odds demanded by JREF as minimum...

Ok, good. Had you proposed a 75 trial straight up-down test (showing some good-faith effort on your part to simplify the protocol), the JREF would have probably required 52 out of the 75 trials to be correct to count as a successful test.

Do you think you could get 52 out of 75 trials? Remember, this would be after a pretest warm up, which should give you an opportunity to confirm things are working for you at that time.

With your claimed success rate, you'd have a 70% chance of getting 52 out of 75 trials. If your real rate is closer to 75%, then you'd have a whopping 93% chance of passing the test.

In the quest for a $1,000,000, those are odds tilted in your favor. Why not negotiate towards something like 75 simple trials?

 

[crashman]

I don't see why this isn't a slam dunk unless?????

As long as it is monitored by sharp reliable people, I see no reason why the amount of trials or pictures should be relevant. The time involved should be the limiting factor as concentration will diminish over time. I say figure out the statistical probabilities and the larger numbers will help ensure that there will be less of a chance that a lucky run (so to speak) would occur. Limit the time to say, four hours. I don't understand why this isn't a slam dunk for Randi to do unless??????

 

[IXP]

Pavel,

I think you have a valid complaint. With a statistician as an expert witness, I think you could prove in court that the JREF is not giving a fair chance at a test.

It is a fact the an ability to predict a 50% chance occurence at a success rate of 70% CANNOT be reliably tested with 20 trials. If JREF is unwilling to test it, they should not have accepted your claim. They are in the wrong, and I think you should pursue action against them.

IXP

 

[Crundy]

* Dipping back in here *

I'm still confused about the whole thing. Pavel claims he can see a photo inside an envelope without opening the envelope. Therefore having 5 envelopes, one with his favorite photo in and the other with blank sheets in, and Pavel picking the right envelope should be enough (repeating a few times). If you can't pass this test then you can't see the contents of the envelope, sorry. Why do we keep having to get into 50/50 tests with hundreds of iterations?

The amount of hand-waving and changing of reasoning behind all this points to one thing: Pavel believed he could do something and is kidding himself in light of all evidence. I sincerely hope you do see the light and join back here as a reformed believer (along with several others in the same boat) because you seem like a nice guy.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

As long as it is monitored by sharp reliable people, I see no reason why the amount of trials or pictures should be relevant. The time involved should be the limiting factor as concentration will diminish over time. I say figure out the statistical probabilities and the larger numbers will help ensure that there will be less of a chance that a lucky run (so to speak) would occur. Limit the time to say, four hours. I don't understand why this isn't a slam dunk for Randi to do unless??????

Doing 100 trials in four hours seems out of reach. It would likely force Pavel to make hasty decisions - the exact thing he likes to avoid.

Do a simple calculation of 10 sets with 10 trials each:

Guessing plus changing of the photos = 4 min. per trial

10 trials = 40 minutes per set.

10 sets = 400 minutes

Include 30 minutes minimum break time for Pavel and the volunteer staff and you are already looking at the limit - and that only if everything goes according to plan.

I may also add that four minutes per trial seems already rushed. I'd rather set the limit at ten minutes and count every trial running longer than ten minutes a fail; assuming Pavel would agree to that.

If Pavel would be faster, great. But I would plan for the test dragging on as described. And those plans always assume no ones screws up.

Alas, unfortunately we will see no test.

 

[GzuzKryzt]

* Dipping back in here *

I'm still confused about the whole thing. Pavel claims he can see a photo inside an envelope without opening the envelope. Therefore having 5 envelopes, one with his favorite photo in and the other with blank sheets in, and Pavel picking the right envelope should be enough (repeating a few times). If you can't pass this test then you can't see the contents of the envelope, sorry. Why do we keep having to get into 50/50 tests with hundreds of iterations?
...

Because that's what Pavel said he could do and the MDC tests the claim of the applicant. No more, no less.

I took me a while to get that in my head, too.

 

[IXP]

...
I may also add that four minutes per trial seems already rushed. I'd rather set the limit at ten minutes and count every trial running longer than ten minutes a fail; assuming Pavel would agree to that.

I guess the wooons that carry the information from inside the envelope to Pavel's brain must travel at sub-light speeds then!

IXP

 

[chillzero]

I sincerely hope you do see the light and join back here as a reformed believer (along with several others in the same boat) because you seem like a nice guy.

*waves*
I'd certainly welcome Pavel into this club.