Swine flu now a "full-scale pandemic"

[Dymanic]

Feel free to find us a source citing the 24 hr pre-symptom onset of viral shedding for influenza.

"Healthy adults may be able to infect others 1 day before getting symptoms and up to 5 days after getting sick."

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms.htm

CDC. Whadda they know, eh? I mean, compared to your expertise and all.

I looked at several sources before posting.

And you've been "advising" people on influenza for how long without already being sure enough about what stage it becomes contagious that you wouldn't have to look it up? It's a pretty important point, actually, and pretty much common knowledge among the truly flu-savvy.

 

[casebro]

First, I'm not involved in the discussion about case fatality rate. I don't agree we have enough data to determine that yet with 2009H1N1. And you are correct in a sliver of what you've said. It will take post pandemic serology sampling to determine the actual rate of undetected cases.

But as for influenza sentinel surveillance and the epidemiology of influenza, I can't have a reasonable discussion with you on this topic unless you expand your knowledge of the subject. Here, educate yourself and get back to me and we can discuss the finer points of sentinel influenza monitoring:

Methods for monitoring influenza surveillance data

Monitoring of influenza in the EISS European network member countries from October 2000 to April 2001

Optimizing Use of Multistream Influenza Sentinel Surveillance Data

Influenza Sentinel Physician Surveillance…In Only a Few Minutes a Week!

Influenza monitoring in the Swiss Sentinel Surveillance Network

Internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the general population of the Netherlands during the 2003–2004 influenza season

Which link explains how they extrapolate from "sentinel monitoring" among symptomatic patients, to total numbers in the general population? Oh, they don't do that? Since sentinel monitoring has nothing to do with the general population, it's only use is to spot new strains.

Remember, this side discussion started from the concept that there are many milder cases, so the death rate for "symptomatic cases" is a meaningless exaggeration.

The death rate for the population as a whole so far is 1: 6,000,000.
The death rate for those sick enough to seek medical treatment is 1:400.
I suspect the death rate for all cases, including those too mild to seek treatment, is somewhere between those.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

"Healthy adults may be able to infect others 1 day before getting symptoms and up to 5 days after getting sick."

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms.htm

CDC. Whadda they know, eh? I mean, compared to your expertise and all.

And you've been "advising" people on influenza for how long without already being sure enough about what stage it becomes contagious that you wouldn't have to look it up? It's a pretty important point, actually, and pretty much common knowledge among the truly flu-savvy.

Well good. Thatnkyou for finding that. I actually looked for that info specifically because my memory was that flu was infectious one day prior to symptoms but I found this instead:

Australian "Bluebook": Period of communicability

It is probably communicable for three to five days from clinical onset in adults and up to seven days and occasionally longer in young children.

So I went with the source instead of my memory.

Honestly, your attitude is a bit much here. But whatever....


Back to you Ivor, see the reason one cannot just rely on symptoms when deferring those handshakes?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Which link explains how they extrapolate from "sentinel monitoring" among symptomatic patients, to total numbers in the general population? Oh, they don't do that? Since sentinel monitoring has nothing to do with the general population, it's only use is to spot new strains.

Remember, this side discussion started from the concept that there are many milder cases, so the death rate for "symptomatic cases" is a meaningless exaggeration.

The death rate for the population as a whole so far is 1: 6,000,000.
The death rate for those sick enough to seek medical treatment is 1:400.
I suspect the death rate for all cases, including those too mild to seek treatment, is somewhere between those.

I told you CB, I'm not involved in your argument about actual case fatality rates. You keep acting like I am. I am not supporting either side of that argument. There is not enough data to establish actual case fatalities for the 2009H1N1 flu virus. Period!

The only way to get accurate total cases is to do serological studies on whole populations (by valid random sampling) and you'd need to also rule out long ago past infections from past infections during your study period.

There are often completely asymptomatic cases so it isn't even mild cases that one would need to worry about counting.

This is hardly a new concept.