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Ahmadinejad wins re-election

I heard no Iranian president ever lost his reelection bid so far. Even though there's obviously widespread dissatisfaction with Ahmadinejad, I don't think the numbers by themselves prove that there must have been any sort of fraud.

I think it's probably a mistake to gauge our estimates of the Iranian electorate by the opinions of Iranian expats and English-speaking Iranians. These tend to be rather liberal, but there's also no doubt that Ahmadinejad has a lot of support, and not only in the countryside.

I think the main argument against fraud is that the candidates have been carefully screened by the ayatollah anyway. It seems to me that it would be much simpler for them to just disqualify any candidates they don't find tolerable, just like they already disqualified hundreds of others.
 
Great! More comedy hi-jinks ahoy, and for years and years!

Thousands of struggling comedy scenario writers applaud you, Mr Ahmedinejad.
 
I think Western media get skewed views of the strength of reform movements in countries like Iran because reporters tend to report from urban centers and have more contact with the middle class, the educated and intellectuals rather than rural farmers, the poor and religious conservatives.

That said, the results were so lopsided (~65% - ~35%), my thoroughly uninformed opinion tells me they rigged the election. I hope the reformers can pressure the leadership into doing...something, but I'm not holding out much hope.

http://www.juancole.com is a great resource for anyone who wants some analysis of what's going on in Iran.
 
Ma & Pa Kettle in Iran

oldhat said:
I think Western media get skewed views of the strength of reform movements in countries like Iran because reporters tend to report from urban centers and have more contact with the middle class, the educated and intellectuals rather than rural farmers, the poor and religious conservatives.....
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Sounds right, and you can see why reporters, not just Western ones, might not interview a lot of Plain Folks.

Say that you're a reporter/journalist in Iran. You want to get the rural point of view. First, you'll need a travel permit and other papers for the area(s) you plan to visit. You may be required to take a handler along, in addition to any necessary interpreters (not all of Iran speaks Farsi) and dragomen. Then you need transport, say a hired car, enough machine to handle dirt roads. You'll need maps that actually show ground truth, not always easy or even legal to obtain in some countries. You'll need supplies.

But all that's manageable, and after maybe two days' travel (Iran's a big place) you arrive somewhere that translates as Armpit Wells. Interviews? Gotta set those up with the local caller of the shots, who may fix you up with his relatives (how can you know?), hinting at the same time that "a small gift of money is customary."

Finally you get to stick a mike in some goat-herd's face and ask him what he thinks about it all. Ya Ali! He knows nothing of the great people in Tehran! He is but a poor man, and God is very great! Now we will drink tea?

Then you drive two days back (Inshallah) and file your story, such as it is, bathe, sell your soul for a drink, and decide that maybe Propaganda Ministry handouts aren't so bad after all. Yes you will, and I wouldn't much blame you.
 
foxholeatheist said:
Everyone's favorite Iranian president has been "re-elected".
Check it out:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...t-at-Mahmoud-Ahmadinejads-rigged-victory.html
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Not according to thousands upon thousands of people who are violently protesting in the streets of Tehran...

Two recent headlines:

Election battles turn into street fights in Iran

and

US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

And check out some of the photos of the unrest - wow! :eye-poppi

I'm thinking the same thing as Cleon: could we be seeing the beginning of a revolution in Iran?
 
Actually this reminds me of the US 2004 election and how it was covered in Europe (no hidden comparison/'equivalence' of Bush/Ahmadinejad intended).

In 2004, the prevailing wisdom here in Europe was that Kerry would beat Bush easily, that Americans were tired of Bush.

In both cases, the opinions of the European journalists as well as their editors were quite clearly with the challenger. In both cases, they were disproportionately talking to expatriates and to city elites. In both cases, I think they seriously underestimated the tendency of the average person to vote with the incumbent.

Unfortunately, I don't think the current Iranian riots are the start of any serious change at all. There's nothing in mr Mousavis protestations so far that suggests he has any basis for the fraud accusations, except his own certainty of winning. Speaking of which, he even announced himself winner before the counting had begun - a call that appears to have been based on absolutely nothing.

I really hope I'm wrong here, but he seems to be making the wrong move. If he played along, he'd probably have a very good chance in 2013. But at the moment.. I think he'll be crushed along with his movement if he keeps his confrontational line (it may be too late already). It's not enough to choose the right fight unfortunately. You also have to fight it at the right time.
 
Merko said:
Actually this reminds me of the US 2004 election and how it was covered in Europe (no hidden comparison/'equivalence' of Bush/Ahmadinejad intended).
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Are you kidding me? Show me where, in 2004, there were widespread and violent street clashes with police as a result of Bush's re-election. I'd really like to see all those photos of burning trash, cars, buses, and motorcycles as well.

What's happening in Iran right now is, in my opinion, way bigger than what you're making it out to be. If it weren't, then the Iranian state security agency wouldn't be attempting to shut down mobile phone networks and popular websites like Facebook. You can bet they are taking this seriously.
 
We saw a real democracy work in the US in late 2008, and we saw a mock democracy fail in 2009 in Iran.
 
MattusMaximus said:
Are you kidding me? Show me where, in 2004, there were widespread and violent street clashes with police as a result of Bush's re-election. I'd really like to see all those photos of burning trash, cars, buses, and motorcycles as well.

What's happening in Iran right now is, in my opinion, way bigger than what you're making it out to be. If it weren't, then the Iranian state security agency wouldn't be attempting to shut down mobile phone networks and popular websites like Facebook. You can bet they are taking this seriously.
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Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media are saying that Mirhossein Mousavi has been arrested, as he was trying to reach the home of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092304.html

As night fell Saturday, the rioting and fires continued on the streets of Tehran. The city's cell phone network appeared to be down Saturday night.
 
They should seriously put the word election in quotes when referring to this debacle. I'm surprised there are actually people who don't think it was rigged. What a farce!

And I know I'm not the only one who sees the resemblance....
 
webfusion said:
Unconfirmed reports from Israeli media are saying that Mirhossein Mousavi has been arrested, as he was trying to reach the home of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092304.html

As night fell Saturday, the rioting and fires continued on the streets of Tehran. The city's cell phone network appeared to be down Saturday night.
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If true, then I am getting visions of the final scene of Orwell's Animal Farm, there the Pigs faces become indistguishbal from those of the Farmer.
 
foxholeatheist said:
Everyone's favorite Iranian president has been "re-elected".

Check it out:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...t-at-Mahmoud-Ahmadinejads-rigged-victory.html
Click to expand...

What did you expect? I told you guys, it isn't a real election -- it's just a facade to pacify the useful idiots in the west about how "Democratic" Iran is (and therefore that it should be allowed to continue to develop nuclear weapons). In reality the choice of president, was, of course, made by the ayatollahs with utter disregard to the will of the people.

Nobody except for the useful idiots believed differently. It's funny: no matter how many times the ayatollahs make fools of the useful idiots, they still believe them, and are always enthusiastic about how whatever latest fraud the ayatollahs have staged for propaganda purposes (the latest "elections", for instance) is "proof" that Iran is "moderating", "becoming democratic", not "really" extremist, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.

Guess again, suckers!
 
Pardalis said:
We saw a real democracy work in the US in late 2008, and we saw a mock democracy fail in 2009 in Iran.
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You lost me, Pardalis. Say more.

ETA: My problem is that both candidates announced the results before polls closed so I have no idea who the "real" winner is. That said, based on the riots, no matter the formal result, I think the established theocracy is the loser.
 
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And the Obama is God spin is:

Ahmadinejad is really not that bad a guy; we can deal with him now that we don't have a cowboy in the White House.
 
Skeptic said:
What did you expect? I told you guys, it isn't a real election -- it's just a facade to pacify the useful idiots in the west about how "Democratic" Iran is (and therefore that it should be allowed to continue to develop nuclear weapons). In reality the choice of president, was, of course, made by the ayatollahs with utter disregard to the will of the people.

Nobody except for the useful idiots believed differently. It's funny: no matter how many times the ayatollahs make fools of the useful idiots, they still believe them, and are always enthusiastic about how whatever latest fraud the ayatollahs have staged for propaganda purposes (the latest "elections", for instance) is "proof" that Iran is "moderating", "becoming democratic", not "really" extremist, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.

Guess again, suckers!
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Useful idiots? Oh dear oh dear. Do you know nothing of history? Right now you are far closer to being a useful idiot in the classic sense than anyone who feels that iran can become more moderate. Why? Well lets face it Ahmadinejad's internal political appeal is almostly entirely driven by an us/them dynamic oh their's some money to the poor but other candidates can offer that. Westerners who think Iran can become more liberal and are prepared to deal with on that basis are a major problem to those who wish to promote the us/them dynamic.

You on the other hand are so wounderful. No really if those running Iran were honest for half a second they would hug you. Why? Because you are so easy to point to and say "look they hate us whatever" and "we need the revolutionary guard and yes nuclear weapons to protect us from such people". For the iranian ruleing class people like you are usefull indeed.
 
People in this thread (such as skeptic) are saying it's self-evident that this election was rigged. But aside from it 'being obvious', is there any evidence of this? There are more examples of polls being horribly wrong (obama/hillary new hampshire, truman/dewey) than elections being rigged.
 
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