CapelDodger
Penultimate Amazing
In KSM's case, we knew with high probability that he was a very bad terrorist who'd already been involved in a plot leading to the death of thousands of Americans.
He was notorious, and quite open about it. Al Qaeda has never been shy; self-promotion seems to be one of their main motivations.
We knew with high probability that KSM was a leader in their organization and hence would, with high probability, know details about some of the ongoing or planned plots and even know the names of some of the terrorists involved in them.
As a leader he'd have no need to know details. He wouldn't know what names the people on the ground were using, locations of safe-houses and drops, bank account numbers.
We knew with high probability that having such information would allow us to foil those plots and perhaps capture those terrorists.
There would be a very low probability that he would have such information.
We knew with high probability that KSM would know the names of other terrorists in his organization and know many other details about the way al-Qaeda was structured and operated.
That he'd know. But then so does everybody. It's very loosely structured and operates on an ad-hoc basis. Mostly it's a franchise (and these days hardly even that).
We knew with high probability that knowing that information would also be quite helpful in defeating al-Qaeda
His insights into personalities and inter-personal dynamics would indeed be helpful. You're not going to torture that sort of stuff out of anybody. You have to play the individual skilfully.
We also knew that conventional interrogation techniques were not working with KSM. He was clearly resistant to them. Even after a week or two of conventional methods being used, he had not revealed any information about ongoing plots or the names of single terrorist. He hadn't told interrogators anything that he didn't think they already knew. When asked what the ongoing plots were, he is reported to have replied: "Soon you will know."
Of course he did. He's playing the part of a sinister powerful terrorist and revelling in it. He didn't know a damn' thing.
(Heck, and I thought I was gonna get me an ear ...
The moment he's picked up everything he knows about current operations is automatically regared as blown. Two weeks later he knows nothing.
We also knew with some degree of certainty that waterboarding would be able to break his resistance to talking in a time frame more consistent with the urgency of our need to know what he knew. We knew this because we routinely used waterboarding in training our own special forces. We knew what it could do.
It can make people cry "Uncle". That's what we know from the special forces experience.
What did KSM cry? What arrests followed, what materials were recovered, what plots were revealed?
Let's imagine KSM cries "I'll tell you!" (metaphorically) and then says, for instance, that there's going to be a copy-cat of 9/11 launched on Los Angeles. Does that mean this is true? Obviously not. It may be a distraction. This guy's a sinister terrorist mastermind, remember. What are you going to do?
Waterboard him again, I guess. If he breaks and admits the target is really Chicago then you can stop.
Or not. Whatever. You can't trust anything a terrorist mastermind says.
And that's what we knew. Now go ahead you two ... tell us how that information makes enhanced interrogation methods unnecessary.![]()
Perhaps you could tell us how it might be useful?