Swine Flu outbreak

[BonkingBear]

Well it now looks as though a lot of the media and forum people have been totally over reacting to Swine Flu and quoting all sorts of figures that are not coming to fruition. So the good News is calm down, don't worry and have a good day

 

[gumboot]

Second Wave etc.

According to my understanding of the timeline this was the second wave. Third wave, perhaps?

 

[gumboot]

The cases will be rising exponentially since you can figure each person infecting on average 2-3 more. .....

Actually the infection rate for Swine Flu has been reported at 1.4 which is lower than the 1.5 - 3 rate of normal flu.

The data increasingly suggests that this particular virus is mild, in every way, compared to regular flu. Scientists who have been studying the virus have reported that they don't expect it to be even as severe as regular flu.

 

[Kestrel]

Actually the infection rate for Swine Flu has been reported at 1.4 which is lower than the 1.5 - 3 rate of normal flu.

The data increasingly suggests that this particular virus is mild, in every way, compared to regular flu. Scientists who have been studying the virus have reported that they don't expect it to be even as severe as regular flu.

There is some cause for concern in the data. Quoting a CDC update on the H1N1 flu published yesterday.

Several characteristics of this outbreak appear unusual compared with a typical influenza seasonal outbreak. First, the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization appears to be higher than would be expected during a typical influenza season (3). Second, the age distribution of hospitalizations for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection is different than that of hospitalizations for seasonal influenza, which typically occur among children aged <2 years, adults aged ≥65 years, and persons with chronic health conditions (3). In Mexico and the United States, the percentage of patients requiring hospitalization has been particularly high among persons aged 30--44 years.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well it now looks as though a lot of the media and forum people have been totally over reacting to Swine Flu and quoting all sorts of figures that are not coming to fruition. So the good News is calm down, don't worry and have a good day

What numbers would those be?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

According to my understanding of the timeline this was the second wave. Third wave, perhaps?

No no no... The second wave is after several months of complete quiet. It has occurred in at least 3 previous pandemics since 1918 and including in 1918.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Actually the infection rate for Swine Flu has been reported at 1.4 which is lower than the 1.5 - 3 rate of normal flu.

The data increasingly suggests that this particular virus is mild, in every way, compared to regular flu. Scientists who have been studying the virus have reported that they don't expect it to be even as severe as regular flu.

I can guarantee you the source you are quoting giving 1.5 new cases for each current flu case is way off.

In the school in Queens, the school nurse's office saw 10 kids on April 20th and 211 students and one staff member (212 total) by April 24th. And that is not even including kids who stayed home and non-students infected by the ill kids outside of the school.

10 (04/20) + 15 (04/21) + 23 (04/22) + 34 (04/23) + 51 (04/24) = 133

 

[gumboot]

I can guarantee you the source you are quoting giving 1.5 new cases for each current flu case is way off.

In the school in Queens, the school nurse's office saw 10 kids on April 20th and 211 students and one staff member (212 total) by April 24th. And that is not even including kids who stayed home and non-students infected by the ill kids outside of the school.

10 (04/20) + 15 (04/21) + 23 (04/22) + 34 (04/23) + 51 (04/24) = 133

The number is derived from scientists studying the specific outbreaks, as sourced from an article in Nature, including Ira Longini, Professor of Biostatistics and Adjunct Professor of Epidemology at the University of Washington School of Public Health. Longini's 1.4 figure is derived from field data, amongst others, from the school outbreaks in New York. Perhaps they have some information that you don't?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

The number is derived from scientists studying the specific outbreaks, as sourced from an article in Nature, including Ira Longini, Professor of Biostatistics and Adjunct Professor of Epidemology at the University of Washington School of Public Health. Longini's 1.4 figure is derived from field data, amongst others, from the school outbreaks in New York. Perhaps they have some information that you don't?

Perhaps you are misinterpreting whatever it is you are reading or trying to recall?

Are you claiming this is a new study already published in Nature of the attack rate of this novel swine flu virus that has only been observed for 2 months? Even if that was the case, the data would be so preliminary as to be entirely speculative.

I think you are way off base here.

Mathematical Modeling: Containing Pandemic Influenza with Vaccines and Antivirals; Ira M. Longini, Jr.; et al

Model Calibration
Family transmission probabilities were taken from the literature (Longini et al.1988; Addy et al.1991)
Illness attack rates based on 1957--58 Asian A(H2N2) influenza pandemic:
Young Children 35%
Older Children62%
Adults24%
Overall33%

Even this is just a model, it may or may not apply to the current flu strain.

I found a couple articles in Nature that mentioned Longini's name. Neither of them had the information you are referring to. They are from 2005 and are hypothetical discussions of a bird flu pandemic scenario.

Drugs could head off a flu pandemic — but only if we respond fast enough
Avian flu special: What's in the medicine cabinet?

The data we have is, this new flu strain is acting like a novel strain. That is, it is spreading fast in a population that suggests little immunity exists except possibly in those over 50.

 

[gumboot]

Are you claiming this is a new study already published in Nature of the attack rate of this novel swine flu virus that has only been observed for 2 months? Even if that was the case, the data would be so preliminary as to be entirely speculative.

No it's a news article from Nature Journal dated 5 May, 2009, which cites, amongst other things, work of Longini.

Longini is part of a multi-university study group developing information about pandemic viruses, specifically they're developing computer models for modelling spread of various diseases. Initially their work was focused on the Avian Flu but they've been applying it to this outbreak.

I find it odd that you can't find any references to him since his own faculty page at the University of Washington (which is the second link that comes up if you do a Google search for his name) links to no less than eight media articles on the current swine flu crisis in which he or his work is referenced.

Here's what one of them has to say about his work:

Predicting potential pandemics is a complicated science. And from his narrow office at "The Hutch" overlooking boats on Lake Union, Longini is at the forefront of it.

The Hutch is part of a national network that includes six universities which, since 2004, have been building computer models to predict how infectious diseases, from SARS to smallpox, might spread. Their biggest target, of course, was avian influenza H5N1, which everyone had expected would become the next pandemic.

Instead, Longini and his counterparts now are scrambling to revise their calculations for an entirely different virus — swine-origin influenza, A H1N1. Their analysis will give public-health authorities critical guidance in how best to combat the novel pathogen.

The Seattle Times

The fact is the scientists with the most knowledge of this virus, the people whose job it is to determine how severe it is likely to be and how widespread, are saying it isn't looking too serious. Obviously there's always the possibility with this sort of virus for things to change, but right now things aren't looking too bad at all.

 

[GreNME]

No no no... The second wave is after several months of complete quiet. It has occurred in at least 3 previous pandemics since 1918 and including in 1918.

No, gumboot is right. This is the second wave. This particular strain has been traced to cases last year.

But by all means keep that woo train chugging.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

No it's a news article from Nature Journal dated 5 May, 2009, which cites, amongst other things, work of Longini.

Longini is part of a multi-university study group developing information about pandemic viruses, specifically they're developing computer models for modelling spread of various diseases. Initially their work was focused on the Avian Flu but they've been applying it to this outbreak.

I find it odd that you can't find any references to him since his own faculty page at the University of Washington (which is the second link that comes up if you do a Google search for his name) links to no less than eight media articles on the current swine flu crisis in which he or his work is referenced.

Here's what one of them has to say about his work:



The fact is the scientists with the most knowledge of this virus, the people whose job it is to determine how severe it is likely to be and how widespread, are saying it isn't looking too serious. Obviously there's always the possibility with this sort of virus for things to change, but right now things aren't looking too bad at all.

I didn't say I couldn't find any references to Longini, I said I couldn't find a reference to Longini publishing a new article in Nature on the infectivity of this new swine flu strain.

I found a couple articles in Nature that mentioned Longini's name. Neither of them had the information you are referring to.

Any discussion in the literature of any other strain would be irrelevant since each strain is unique.


I notice your source reinforces what I've said repeatedly, the numbers are too small to draw certain conclusions.

the number of cases in other countries remains too small statistically to detect levels of even 1–2% mortality rates, lower than the the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

The conclusion you cite:

early numbers for some other key variables of spread, including the basic reproductive rate, R0, which is the number of new cases that an infected individual will give rise to. Longini's rough preliminary estimates from field data such as a school outbreak in New York, for instance, suggest that the current R0 is about 1.4. "At this point the virus does not seem as transmissible as past pandemic strains," he says. The R0 of the 1918 pandemic has been estimated at less than four; that of seasonal influenza typically ranges from 1.5 to 3.

It would depend on just how early those numbers were.

It's important to point out here, Declan Butler is the article's author, not Longini. His degree is in marine biology not epidemiology. Not that that makes him not credible, but he may or may not have expertise in influenza epidemiology.

Flu spreads rapidly because it has a very short generation time rather than a just a high R0.

The rate of transmission changes over time because of increasing population immunity. So the 1918 rate of 3 (some sources have a little higher estimate) is an average.

The virus changes infectivity with genetic drift.

Bottom line, I doubt that 1.5 number is correct, we don't know if they were projecting an average or how good the estimate is, I didn't see a source for the data. CDC is in the process of thoroughly analyzing the NY school outbreak and they haven't published the results yet.

 

[Oliver]

Well, it's official ...

CNN: H1N1 now a national emergency

Washington (CNN) -- President Obama has declared a national emergency to
deal with the "rapid increase in illness" from the H1N1 influenza virus. "The 2009
H1N1 pandemic continues to evolve. The rates of illness continue to rise rapidly
within many communities across the nation, and the potential exists for the
pandemic to overburden health care resources in some localities," Obama
said in a statement... [full article]

 

[paximperium]

Well, it's official ...

CNN: H1N1 now a national emergency

Washington (CNN) -- President Obama has declared a national emergency to
deal with the "rapid increase in illness" from the H1N1 influenza virus. "The 2009
H1N1 pandemic continues to evolve. The rates of illness continue to rise rapidly
within many communities across the nation, and the potential exists for the
pandemic to overburden health care resources in some localities," Obama
said in a statement... [full article]

Yes. What about it?

 

[skepticdoc]

FWIW:

http://blog.google.org/2009/10/will-genomics-help-prevent-next.html

 

[Undesired Walrus]

New mortality rate for the Swine: 0.026%. About 1 in 38,000. A fair bit different than the previous media hysterics about 1 in 3 or even 1 in 200.

 

[The Atheist]

New mortality rate for the Swine: 0.026%. About 1 in 38,000. A fair bit different than the previous media hysterics about 1 in 3 or even 1 in 200.

Where'd you get that number from?

Going by NZ's example, the mortality rate was more like 0.004%, and that's using the minimum infection rate from the Ministry of Health. Realistically, I think the mortality from it in NZ is half that again, or 1/10 the number you quote.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Where'd you get that number from?

Going by NZ's example, the mortality rate was more like 0.004%, and that's using the minimum infection rate from the Ministry of Health. Realistically, I think the mortality from it in NZ is half that again, or 1/10 the number you quote.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8406723.stm

I heard on the news that it was 100x less lethal than the 1918 flu virus.

The expected deaths are about 1 per 4,000 infections.

Oh how things change!

 

[The Atheist]

I heard on the news that it was 100x less lethal than the 1918 flu virus.

But that can't be right.

How are they reducing the world population by 30% on those numbers?

Someone screwed up.

Let's say that figure of 1 in 38,000 is right.

The chances of the mother dying during giving birth in USA are 1 in 7692.

We need to develop a vaccine for pregnancy urgently! Girls, do not get pregnant - you are almost five times more likely to die from giving birth than swine flu. And that's without adding in the deaths during pregnancy; hell, pregnancy is lethal by comparison.

 

[skepticdoc]

From the CDC:

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/in_the_news/updated_cdc_estimates.htm