It's a large overestimate so far. There would have to be a huge rise in the number of infections from this strain at some point this year for that to be a possibility, and by all indications it's currently reaching a plateau.
Jesus, if you think an estimate of 10% of usual 'flu deaths is low, I'd love you to start up a bookmaking operation!
It might turn out to be an overestimate, but saying it today is putting the cart well before the horse. I just noted in another thread that I hear a young girl is intensive care in Edmonton.
How many times can I say this:
What is happening today could well change next week. You're extrapolating a result from too little data. Viruses don't behave as we'd like them to.
You cannot choose which reactions do or do not count when asking for examples without first laying out the criteria you're filtering. That can result in your statements looking like shifting goalpost.
Well, it's clearly not, because the only source of information which matters is the official channels - through CD and WHO.
We cannot control the media any more than we can control Alex Jones using it as part of his ongoing, nauseous conspiracy campaign. (Although what he's going to do if it does turn out to be a bad cold after claiming it was a tactic to control the masses, I don't know - heaven forbid he'd admit to being a lying, snivelling scumbag...)
That only works with "ifs" and "coulda-been" though. Also, it doesn't look like panic in hindsight, because I've already pointed it out as examples of panic currently. How does someone pointing it out as panic as it happens count as hindsight?
Panic, to me, would be people queueing for Tamiflu, stopping travel, closing borders...
Closing a couple of hundred - out of tens of thousands - schools
as a precaution isn't panic to the extent that you'd do anything differently.
They were also not saying that school closings should be mandatory. They left it up to the municipalities (who, in some cases, over-reacted).
And even if turns out to have been unwarranted, it's good practice.
Or, do you never have fire drills?
It's hopefully shown weaknesses in the system which will work better next time. To be honest, the biggest whingers so far have been the likes of Wildcat wioth "OMFG, Look at the idiots!" Governments have generally been calm and ordered in their approach. We're left with "The media panicked"
Yep. And......?
4. I do not agree that erring on the side of caution to over-reactive degrees is reasonable for public response, and (I believe) that it will in fact be the likely contributing factor if in the future something worse does come down the line and it is ignored. I consider the assertions to the opposite contradictory.
Are those clear? Should I attempt to clarify?
I was clear all the way through - we just have different ways of looking at it, and the #4 above covers it all.
You think there's been an over-reaction, and I think the reaction has been about right - barring media, which are not answerable to public or government.
Whether the current situation and response will help or hinder future efforts, we'll have to wait & see.
I heard that someone has gone to Canada and has infected pigs on a pig farm with the swine flu. And people are suspecting that this could make the current swine flu evolve into a more deadly one that will come back to humans and be more deadly and harder to get rid of. We can hope. I don't know about you, but I am rooting for the flu to rid the world of the human infestation so that the next big thing can evolve which I hope will be a better life form.
Human beings have not lived up to my expectations. I don't have any hope we will or can.
Be a shame if you miss out by dying of it.
The real pattern though, is that the "cry wolf" scenario is taking hold. We're all so sick of the media going into apocalypse mode every time anything happens, that when a genuine serious thread does emerge (and it will), we won't be able to distinguish it from the false alarms, and we'll lose vital time. That's a bad thing, and a worrying thing.
Yep, I've been saying that for years.
I think it is noticeable that it's taking hold by the way many responses go:
"Media beat up; AIDS, SARS, H5N1, Y2K.... always turns out to be rubbish."
Have you read Herald feedback? Seemed to me that about 60% were along those lines.
The sad part is, they're right, because most people wouldn't be able to assess risk if it bit them on the arse, which is why insurance companies hire smart people to work it out - and why Warren Buffett is pretty keen to get H1N1-A insurance products out there.
We don't have people running around in masks.
Hey, they managed to get that one old Korean woman wearing one when she got off the plane!
