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Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, the discussion.

The way I see it, is that extraordinary claims require just the same amount of evidence to reach the same status than anything else. No more and no less.
Yes. It’s just that most "ordinary" claims are already backed by extraordinary evidence that you don’t think about. When we say “extraordinary claims”, what we actually mean are claims that do not already have evidence supporting them, or sometimes claims that have extraordinary evidence against them. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence because they usually contradict claims that are backed by extraordinary evidence. The evidence for the extraordinary claim must support the new claim as well as explain why the old claims that are now being abandoned, previously appeared to be correct. The extraordinary evidence must account for the abandoned claim, while also explaining the new one.

I wrote more about this here - extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
 
I would also like to hear your thoughts about Richard's comments about remote viewing. I found them very surprising, not the conclusion that he is not convinced by the evidence base, but everything else. Thanks for all the help.
I think Wiseman's comment is just wrong - psi hasn't been shown to be real according to normal scientific standards. I'm not sure what he means - perhaps he's saying that it has been demonstrated by studies showing more than 95% probability. But that's just a convention used in certain studies where (as someone else wrote) there is prior plausibility. But a 95% success result does not by itself mean that remote viewing has been proven using the normal standards of science.
 
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Hey, Richard! I just wanted to thank you. Excellent blog, excellent comment.
 
I think Wiseman's comment is just wrong - psi hasn't been shown to be real according to normal scientific standards. I'm not sure what he means - perhaps he's saying that it has been demonstrated by studies showing more than 95% probability. But that's just a convention used in certain studies where (as someone else wrote) there is prior plausibility. But a 95% success result does not by itself mean that remote viewing has been proven using the normal standards of science.

Why try to explain a Mystery by introducing another.....it just doesn't make sense
 
I haven't had as much time as I'd have liked to participate in this discussion, but once again, thanks for all the comments so far.

Sherman Bay said:
Wiseman is being much too kind, and I think he should be ashamed of his statement. Remote viewing hasn't been proved by any reasonable scientific standard and cannot be replicated if the proper controls are in place.

Ashles said:
And why does it make sense anyway to compare a specific claim (RV) to an entire field. Surely he could have provided specific comparable results as Kuko requested.

I'm afraid it seems to me to be a dismissive answer that misrepresents the current scientific view of the validity of RV.

RichardR said:
I think Wiseman's comment is just wrong - psi hasn't been shown to be real according to normal scientific standards.


This is pretty much how I see it as well. Would anyone else be interested in contacting Richard about this. I find his position and comments really strange. Coverage like this just gives more blanks for all kinds of believers / woo-distributors, and they seem to have a very loose trigger finger, in all directions. I would really like to see the data behind this comment:

Richard Wiseman said:
I agree that by the standards of any other area of science that remote viewing is proven..


His public e-mail is:


Also I still don't understand the way he uses ECREE. Maybe he does mean prior plausibility, but his comments don't quite agree with that. To me he seems to require more and better evidence from RV than is usually the case for a claim to reach a certain status.

:yinyang:
 
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Have you considered that some things might be true precisely because they are mindboggling.

The more absurd the premise of a discipline is, the less likely it would be to exist and have managed to survive against the fact that people can't cope with it.

The claim that pretty lights in the sky deciding anything on earth is so absurd that it would work in favour of it's own at least initial validity.

The fact that there is no evidence that the pretty lights do anything at all to influence our behavior doesn't dissuade you from that position?
 
The fact that there is no evidence that the pretty lights do anything at all to influence our behavior doesn't dissuade you from that position?

The falsity of your statement does nothing to dissaude me from my position.
 
The falsity of your statement does nothing to dissaude me from my position.

Slayer, the clear cut reason why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence is:

1. There is every reason to doubt the existence due to contradicting claims.

2. It is physically impossible

3. It goes against known knowledge of science.

:D
 
Slayer, the clear cut reason why extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence is:

1. There is every reason to doubt the existence due to contradicting claims.

2. It is physically impossible

3. It goes against known knowledge of science.

:D

1. There is all the more reason to accept the evidence if claims are contradictory since people perhaps don't notice what shouldn't be there.

2. That is kind of the point. It's is supernatural. Supernatural things aren't supposed to work according to natural laws but break them.

3. That is kind of the point again.
 
1. There is all the more reason to accept the evidence if claims are contradictory since people perhaps don't notice what shouldn't be there.

2. That is kind of the point. It's is supernatural. Supernatural things aren't supposed to work according to natural laws but break them.

3. That is kind of the point again.

So, the wackier the claim and the flimsier the evidence, the more likely it is to be true?
 
So, the wackier the claim and the flimsier the evidence, the more likely it is to be true?

Actually that's not far off.

If something is very strange they must have a reason for believing it correct? Because they are most likely likely to be mocked. If it is counter-intuitive, then it is doubly likely to be true, since evidence must exist to establish it.

As mentioned above, the paranormal (not here including Astrology) breaks the laws of nature almost by definition.

The question is can the laws of nature be broken is the question that is at stake. "It breaks the laws of nature!" is therefore not a valid argument at all against something paranormal.

Because whether some beings can break certain laws of nature is exactly what we are discussing.
 
If something is very strange they must have a reason for believing it correct?
Correct. Though that reason may be mistaken. How easily our perceptions can be fooled is something that took mankind a long time, and much bitter experience, to understand. The majority of people still don't realise how unreliable their perceptions and intuition can be.

Because they are most likely likely to be mocked.
Incorrect. Irrational beliefs have always been widespread, and even today they are very common. Except in a handful of places (like this forum) it's sceptics who are most likely to be attacked and mocked. There have been many threads here by sceptics bemoaning the reaction of family and friends when they dare to question some of the woo they believe in.

If it is counter-intuitive, then it is doubly likely to be true, since evidence must exist to establish it.
But most supposed supernatural/paranormal phenomena are not counter-intuitive - at least to those with little or no understanding of the methodology and discoveries of science. And it was a difficult and hard-learned lesson that the evidence most people consider enough to establish something - subjective, anecdotal evidence - can in fact be highly unreliable.

The question is can the laws of nature be broken is the question that is at stake. "It breaks the laws of nature!" is therefore not a valid argument at all against something paranormal.

Because whether some beings can break certain laws of nature is exactly what we are discussing.
Agreed. But "it breaks the laws of nature" is an indication that you need to carefully check your findings and eliminate alternative explanations, as our understanding of those laws is the result of centuries of careful investigation and has produced many useful discoveries and inventions (unlike our investigations of the supposedly paranormal).
 
Correct. Though that reason may be mistaken. How easily our perceptions can be fooled is something that took mankind a long time, and much bitter experience, to understand. The majority of people still don't realise how unreliable their perceptions and intuition can be.

Except the vast majority of non fraudulant Paranormal Phenonoma cannot be eliminated in that way. In my personal experiance, illusary paranormal phenonoma can easily be established by a closer examination.

I have mistaken paranormal entities for normal objects. Under closer examination the normal objects turned out to be paranormal. Explain that? How do you mistake a paranormal object for a normal one unless it is real?

Incorrect. Irrational beliefs have always been widespread, and even today they are very common. Except in a handful of places (like this forum) it's sceptics who are most likely to be attacked and mocked. There have been many threads here by sceptics bemoaning the reaction of family and friends when they dare to question some of the woo they believe in.

Half-True. It all depends upon the social status possessed by the irrationality in question. Generally other than a few socially sanctioned 'woo' beliefs, everything else is generally persecuted to various levels. Generally the dominant irrationality persecutes the less dominant ones.

But most supposed supernatural/paranormal phenomena are not counter-intuitive - at least to those with little or no understanding of the methodology and discoveries of science. And it was a difficult and hard-learned lesson that the evidence most people consider enough to establish something - subjective, anecdotal evidence - can in fact be highly unreliable.

Not really. In most cases, unless there is some deliberate illusion going on by a third party, a mental illness or the object question has not been clearly examined in focused vision, HONEST subjective anecdotal evidence ought to be reliable.

Unless as whatever it was was clearly percieved (the main problem) there exists no rational grounds for disbelieving in paranormal phenonoma.

As for you counter-intuitive claim, I am unsure. The question whether a basic knowledge of the laws of nature is established in all people's or whether it is a learnt trait. If the latter, it rather suggests that actually 'Science' is nothing but an arbitery construct imposed upon a fundermentally more chaotic reality.


Agreed. But "it breaks the laws of nature" is an indication that you need to carefully check your findings and eliminate alternative explanations, as our understanding of those laws is the result of centuries of careful investigation and has produced many useful discoveries and inventions (unlike our investigations of the supposedly paranormal).
[/QUOTE]

There are always alternative explanations Pixel42. However implausable you can always come up with them.

You have to eliminate all likely alternative explanations only. For instance the possibility of mis-identifying another object as paranormal. However as above mentioned, I have mistaken paranormal objects for normal objects. It works both ways and would go a long way to explaining why some people see nothing paranormal.

The claim that the laws of nature incorperate all reality is merely a belief. As I see it, the common need to eliminate paranormal phenonoma on any basis you can come up with is as I see it is simply a neccesity to confirm this false belief.

There are laws. And some rare beings can eat the laws for breakfast on toast.;);)

We have observed the laws existance. And we have observed the laws being broken. The rational conclusion is really that the laws can be broken by some beings.
 
I have mistaken paranormal entities for normal objects. Under closer examination the normal objects turned out to be paranormal. Explain that? How do you mistake a paranormal object for a normal one unless it is real?

You believe you have mistaken paranormal entities for normal objects. That's exactly what Pixel42 was trying to get you to understand.

Half-True. It all depends upon the social status possessed by the irrationality in question. Generally other than a few socially sanctioned 'woo' beliefs, everything else is generally persecuted to various levels. Generally the dominant irrationality persecutes the less dominant ones.

Persecution, or the lack of it, does nothing to make something true or untrue.

Not really. In most cases, unless there is some deliberate illusion going on by a third party, a mental illness or the object question has not been clearly examined in focused vision, HONEST subjective anecdotal evidence ought to be reliable.

Honesty also has nothing to do with mistaken perception.

Unless as whatever it was was clearly percieved (the main problem) there exists no rational grounds for disbelieving in paranormal phenonoma.

I can think of many more rational grounds for disbelieving someone's report of paranormal phenomena.

As for you counter-intuitive claim, I am unsure. The question whether a basic knowledge of the laws of nature is established in all people's or whether it is a learnt trait. If the latter, it rather suggests that actually 'Science' is nothing but an arbitery construct imposed upon a fundermentally more chaotic reality.


There are always alternative explanations Pixel42. However implausable you can always come up with them.

Exactly. Explanations that don't need to resort to magic fairy dust.

You have to eliminate all likely alternative explanations only.

You actually need to eliminate unlikely ones, as well.

For instance the possibility of mis-identifying another object as paranormal. However as above mentioned, I have mistaken paranormal objects for normal objects.

You believe. But, as Pixel42 explained to you, perception can be wrong. Even yours.

It works both ways and would go a long way to explaining why some people see nothing paranormal.

We really don't need explanations for seeing nothing paranormal.

The claim that the laws of nature incorperate all reality is merely a belief.

Yes, a belief in reality and the scientific method.

As I see it, the common need to eliminate paranormal phenonoma on any basis you can come up with is as I see it is simply a neccesity to confirm this false belief.

You're basing that on your need to rationalize a belief in paranormal phenomena since you believe you have experienced it yourself.

There are laws. And some rare beings can eat the laws for breakfast on toast.;);)

Please provide evidence for this claim and a mechanism for it to occur. ;);)

We have observed the laws existance. And we have observed the laws being broken. The rational conclusion is really that the laws can be broken by some beings.

Please provide evidence for this claim and a mechanism for it to occur.
 
You believe you have mistaken paranormal entities for normal objects. That's exactly what Pixel42 was trying to get you to understand.

I believe. And as far as I am concerned that IS ALL THAT MATTERS!

Persecution, or the lack of it, does nothing to make something true or untrue.

I never said it did.

Honesty also has nothing to do with mistaken perception.

And what gives you the right to decide for other people what perceptions are mistaken? I have covered all the common causes of mistaken perceptions.

I can think of many more rational grounds for disbelieving someone's report of paranormal phenomena.

Good, tell me about them.

Exactly. Explanations that don't need to resort to magic fairy dust.

What's wrong with magic fairy dust?


You actually need to eliminate unlikely ones, as well.

Not so. Because there exists no need to treat paranormal phenonoma any differently from anything else. They are a part of the world we live in, get used to it.


You believe. But, as Pixel42 explained to you, perception can be wrong. Even yours.

Yes, however you have to determine exactly what it was that went wrong in order for me to take your accusations seriously.


We really don't need explanations for seeing nothing paranormal.

Oh sure.

Yes, a belief in reality and the scientific method.

Yes you strongly believe. But that's all it is. A belief. The evidence would give a far weaker grounding.

You're basing that on your need to rationalize a belief in paranormal phenomena since you believe you have experienced it yourself.

I don't believe. I know. I have no reason to accept your beliefs when the world I have thus far experianced shows to be false.

Please provide evidence for this claim and a mechanism for it to occur. ;);)

I don't think you get the basic idea of what a paranormal phenonomon is. It is something that BREAKS the known laws of nature by definition.

Asking for a mechanism within the laws of nature by which the laws can be broken is beyond laughable. If there was a natural mechanism to do that stuff, then it would be merely technological, not paranormal.

Things exist that ignore and break the laws of nature. We know this, because such things have been observed.

You claim that the laws of nature incorperate all reality is BASELESS! Baseless unless you have taken into account all experianced realities including paranormal ones and then concluded that this is so.
 
I believe. And as far as I am concerned that IS ALL THAT MATTERS!
So why are you trying to convince others?

And what gives you the right to decide for other people what perceptions are mistaken? I have covered all the common causes of mistaken perceptions.
Intellectual honesty and reality.

Not so. Because there exists no need to treat paranormal phenonoma any differently from anything else. They are a part of the world we live in, get used to it.
When you can actually show there is any phenomena at all, then you can perhaps you can declare victory. Right now you are making useless claims with no validity to anyone but you.

Yes, however you have to determine exactly what it was that went wrong in order for me to take your accusations seriously.
So you believe you're right until proven wrong?
Yes you strongly believe. But that's all it is. A belief. The evidence would give a far weaker grounding.
Do you even understand what you're talking about? Not all beliefs are equal. We have beliefs based on reality and beliefs based on well wishes and fantasy. Guess which one people take seriously?
I don't believe. I know. I have no reason to accept your beliefs when the world I have thus far experianced shows to be false.
Under what criteria do you use to confirm this statement?
I don't think you get the basic idea of what a paranormal phenonomon is. It is something that BREAKS the known laws of nature by definition.
So it won't be difficult to provide evidence of this?
Asking for a mechanism within the laws of nature by which the laws can be broken is beyond laughable. If there was a natural mechanism to do that stuff, then it would be merely technological, not paranormal.
huh? You must have missed the entire Quantum Theory and Relativity revolution that completely dismantled the old understanding of reality but showing how counter-intuitive and illogical reality really is.
Things exist that ignore and break the laws of nature. We know this, because such things have been observed.
No. Such things have bee CLAIMED to have been observed.
You claim that the laws of nature incorperate all reality is BASELESS! Baseless unless you have taken into account all experianced realities including paranormal ones and then concluded that this is so.
It does. The current conclusion is that "paranormal" events are neurological proceesses errors and delusion.
 
Actually that's not far off.

If something is very strange they must have a reason for believing it correct? Because they are most likely likely to be mocked. If it is counter-intuitive, then it is doubly likely to be true, since evidence must exist to establish it.

DOUBLY likely? Interesting. Where are you getting this information from?

Although it is certainly true that ideas have been mocked before accepted (e.g., bacteria causing stomach ulcers), this seems like backwards reasoning to me.

For you philosophy peeps, what's this one called? A --> B, therefore, B --> A?
 

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