Is GM finished?
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Disbelief
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This one bothers me. If Toyota had taken the same attitude with the Prius, no one would be talking about that car today. They lost money on it as soon as it was sold, yet looked at it as a way to get something new and different on the road. They gained huge amounts of publicity and goodwill, all the while building plants that could pump out full-sized SUVs and trucks. I think the task force needs to look at it as a chance for GM to turn around some of the negative publicity and show what the company can do from an engineering perepctive. Of course, GM has to make sure that the launch goes without a hitch and that the vehicle can meet the hype that they have created.
davefoc
Philosopher
As a techie, a moderate environmentalist and somebody that roots for people that take chances I'm interested in the Volt and I hope it succeeds. There are issues however.
1. GM's role seems to be principally one of integrator. It is hard to see where there is significant intellectual property in the Volt that will benefit GM. The key technology is the battery pack. GM isn't developing the batteries and if one of its suppliers succeeds in making a viable battery pack the ability to make electric cars like GM is designing here will spread through the automotive industry like wildfire.
2. Right now the cost of the batteries looks like it will preclude a practical vehicle like this for at least the next several years. So GM is unlikely to gain much of an advantage by being first.
3. The Prius that you mention is a stunning aggregation of design and research improvements and Toyota looks like it has improved on it once again with its new version. In addition it looks like the Insight from Honda is going to give the Prius a run for the money. So two of GM's competitors have economically viable competition for GM's currently impractical and not yet available Volt. If and probably when somebody makes a battery pack that allows a Volt like vehicle to be practical Toyota and Honda look very well placed to take advantage of it without the need to carry an economically impractical vehicle in their lines for the next several years.
Disbelief
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No, there is much more involved than just the battery pack. They are engineering all new electrical integration, and the hybrid system will be far different than the Prius or Insight. The battery packs will make it easier for others, but we do not know what kind of agreements are in place between LG and GM.
The same could be said of the Prius when it first arrived. The advantage of being first has more to do with the "halo" effect for the brand and the PR side.
My heartburn with GM is the fact that they have an excellent hybrid system in use, but have not adapted it for small cars. The two-mode system that they first used in busses and then in large SUVs, is in some ways better than what Toyota has. However, since they have failed to efficiently scale it down, they have failed to challenge the leaders.
davefoc
Philosopher
Of course there is more involved than the battery pack. If I recall correctly they have spent about $500 million developing this thing (I suspect more). But a lot of that money is just routine, develop a new car money.
As a technology the approach that they have taken is routine for large earth moving trucks, locomotives and other kinds of very large vehicles including some ships. So the basic idea has been around for a very long time and yet GM is the only company spending development money on the approach for passenger cars. Perhaps they have had a brilliant insight that others have missed and they are really on the right track. Or perhaps this was the simplest way for them to get a hybrid passenger car to market and they needed a big success so they saw taking a huge gamble even if the odds were long as their best shot.
On a completely different subject, I notice that Saturn doesn't get much of a mention in all this. Is Saturn a dead duck? Why do you think Toyota has been so much more successful with its spin off brand Psion than GM was with Saturn. I like the the looks of some of Saturn's new offerings but somehow Saturn never generates much buzz for anything it does.
Disbelief
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Here's the difference, they were shooting for the stars. The Volt technology is above and beyond the Prius because they are using the gas motor to replenish the electric drive. However, it is something that I think they had to do to try and leapfrog Toyota and not try to play catch up with just hybrids.
Saturn is dead, and GM has only themselves to blame. They make nice vehicles now, but who are they competing with? GM made a HUGE mistake by taking Saturn away from its primary objective - import fighter- and trying to take it upmarket. Instead, they should have focused directly on the Scion brand and built the niche vehicles with more design flair. The xB is an ugly, ugly vehicle, but it is low-priced, different and gets decent mileage. Why GM did not position Saturn to take them on, is beyond me.
Furcifer
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It wasn't so much shooting for the stars as it was projecting based on current trends, feasibility, gas prices etc.
Studies were done and decisions were made by very intelligent people. Had gas prices remained at $1.50/gallon and the economy strong till 2010, the Prius would have become a collectors item
davefoc
Philosopher
I wasn't quite sure what you meant by the bolded section. Both Toyota and GM use the gas motor to turn a generator that generates electricity to charge the batteries.
The GM system, as I understand it, relies completely on the electric motors to power the vehicle whereas the other hybrid systems available can combine the electric motor drive with the gasoline engine drive to power the car.
In addition the GM system allows the battery pack to be charged from electric power from outside the car and the battery pack is large enough to to supply power for about 40 miles of driving without recharge from the gasoline engine.
I suspect you understood this but I wasn't quite sure based on what you said above. My apologies if you did.
Breaking the two features down:
1. Eliminate the ability to use the gasoline motor for power assist
It seems like the difficult path is to develop the transmission technology that allows the drive power from the two sources to be combined. If GM has made developments that obviate the advantages of combining the two power sources so a simpler drive train is practical, then good for them. They have really made significant technological advances here. The keys to being able to accomplish this are lightweight powerful electric motors and a battery pack with a sufficiently low output impedance to supply the power the car needs for sufficient acceleration (over a wide temperature range). If they have developed unique intellectual property for this then perhaps I have underestimated the technological advances that they have made for the Volt. If they are just serving as an integrator for the developments of other companies then if the technology becomes viable for the Volt it will be viable for every other can manufacturer.
2. Plug in hybrid technology
It seems unlikely that they could have developed much significantly new intellectual property on this. There are companies that convert Prius' to plug in hybrids already. Perhaps GM has some interesting improvements that might have some intellectual property protection possibilities but certainly they haven't developed any technology here that is going to serve as a significant barrier to competition from other manufacturers if the battery technology for plug-in hybrids becomes physically and economically viable.
And that is the point. Battery technology for cars is tricky and a large variety of parameters need to be in the acceptable range before a battery technology is viable for a mass market car. At this point in time, it looks like the technology is tantalizingly close to viability, but it doesn't seem to be there. If a company has developed viable battery technology for mass market cars, then it is that company that is in the best position to profit. GM will receive little benefit for being the first car manufacturer to integrate the technology. GM has made a large bet here, but it is a bet where other companies can see most of the cards it is holding and those companies can react quickly as the situation is made more clear without having to call GM's bet right now.
Disbelief
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This is oncorrect, as neither of them does this. The Prius uses the electric motor at lower speeds, but the gasoline engine takes over and powers the vehicle at a certain point.
The electric motor powers the car for up to 40 miles, but at some point the gasoline motor kicks in to supply power to the electric motor only. The gasoline engine never powers the vehicle in the Volt. This means less consumption of gas, since it is doing far less work.
Yes, it is the only way to recharge the electric, as the gas engine will not do this (at least at this point). Regenerative breaking in both Prius and Volt will add some charge back, but I believe this is still rather small.
I understand quite a bit of how they work, though I am definitely not close to being an expert. No apologies necessary.
Yes, you have underestimated what GM is trying to do. They are not trying to build a better Prius, they are trying to build a better type of hybrid. If better batteries come to pass, that are much smaller than what is in the Teslas, then the Volt would be far easier to convert to total elctric vs. the other hybrids.
Plug in technology is not going to be a game changer for anyone. Toyota will have a plug in model soon as well, but it still does not change the fact that the gas motor will kick in when needed.
I think that GM may have a small advantage over other manufacturers if/when battery technolgy becomes available - the EV-1. While they killed the program, no other manufacturer had such a large scale test of an all-electric vehicle. While other technology has changed in the interim, they learned a lot of that and used some of that information in developing the Volt.
Studies were done and decisions were made by very intelligent people. Had gas prices remained at $1.50/gallon and the economy strong till 2010, the Prius would have become a collectors item
Not in a lot of the rest of the world where gas is hell of a lot more than that.
Steve
Furcifer
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Doubtful. Crunch the numbers on a quick search and you find the NA and Janpanese markets account for 80-90% (NA being 60%) That means the other 37 countries the Prius is sold in account for 10-20% of sales worldwide at best.
The launch of the Prius was essentially a loss leader, Toyota wisely gambling on the marketing effect. When it hit the US in 2001 novelty would have sold units, but the rising gas prices created demand. In comparison to the rest of the world the return on investment was greater in NA. This was due to longer average commutes, the lack of diesel distribution and of course rising gas prices. In the 37 other countries diesel remained competative.
The rest of the world was a cushion that allowed Toyota to consider marketing the Prius, but the NA market was key. Without it, there may have been a market in Japan, but the rest of the world? Probably not.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
GM Preparing to file for bankruptcy, apparently.
davefoc
Philosopher
I am not quite sure what you are disagreeing with here. I didn't say anything controversial. From a site describing the Prius technology:
The Prius has an internal combustion engine (ICE) which is unusually small for a car of this size (1300 kg). This is made possible by the presence of the electric motors and battery, which supplement the ICE when power demand is high.
The Prius ICE turns a generator that charges the battery. Under some circumstances the ICE and the electric motor can be coupled together to power the vehicle. It is for this reason that it is sometimes called a parallel hybrid.
From a site describing the Volt technology:
The Volt, however, is considered an extended-range electric vehicle (E-REV). It has a very powerful all-electric 161-horsepower 45KW (100 KW peak) motor that is the only engine to power the car at all times.
http://gm-volt.com/about/
The Volt ICE turns a generator that charges the battery. The electric motor provides drive power for the vehicle alone. This configuration is sometimes called a series hybrid.
The series hybrid approach is old. As I noted previously, it used in locomotives, very large trucks, large earth moving equipment and even ships today. The Wikipedia article on hybrids makes mention of a series hybrid designed by Ferdinand Porsche in 1901.
If adequate battery and motor technology exist that are economically viable a series hybrid approach may be superior to the Toyota parallel hybrid approach. Right now the economic viability of the battery pack for the series hybrid approach is uncertain. My point was that the main technology hurdle for a series hybrid approach for a mass market passenger car seems to be the economic viability of the battery pack. If and when the battery pack is economically viable other manufacturers seem well placed to take advantage of it and it is hard to see from the outside that GM will control sufficient intellectual property so as to have a very significant competitive advantage. However the companies that control the battery technology will have highly valuable intellectual property and would be expected to profit greatly if they succeed in developing batteries that are economically viable for series hybrids and/or plug in hybrids.
I have understood what you have said to mean that you disagree with this and that you believe that the Volt technology will give GM a significant technological advantage. What is it in the Volt beyond the battery pack technology that will give GM a significant competitive edge?
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Just thinking
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You forgot to mention their hands-on performance already present in the automotive world ... the DMV.
... any one of which would be a marked improvement for GM. If we can get all three at once, it will be a change at GM worthy of celebration in verse.
Furcifer
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Well I can see the GM sign is still up at headquarters, no news out of Detroit local, it's not that apparent here.
GM just secured $3.5 Billion for suppliers, I don't think they are filing for banruptcy yet. It's only 4:15 PM though
littlehulkster
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Toyota's Prius wasn't really that impressive, anyway. The original Honda Insight was a better car technically and a lot truer to the concept, but Honda was trying to sell a tiny, 50mpg car that looked like a turtle from outer space when gas was still $1/gallon, so it failed.
Toyota hit the market later, which is usually a disadvantage, but their vehicle was timed better with the increase in gas prices, which made it successful. It was as much of a case of the right place at the right time as anything.
It wasn't really the Prius that has kept Toyota out of the fire, anyway, it was more efficient production, less overhead thanks to Universal Healthcare and significantly lower corporate pay.
Toyota hit the market later, which is usually a disadvantage, but their vehicle was timed better with the increase in gas prices, which made it successful. It was as much of a case of the right place at the right time as anything.
It wasn't really the Prius that has kept Toyota out of the fire, anyway, it was more efficient production, less overhead thanks to Universal Healthcare and significantly lower corporate pay.
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ZirconBlue
Sole Survivor of L-Town
The Insight may have been released in the US market earlier, but the Prius was first produced in Japan a couple of years prior to the Insight. IIRC the Prius is considered the first mass-production hybrid car. The Prius was larger, better looking, and, unlike the Insight, was able to run totally on electric power at times.
littlehulkster
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It was, however, also less efficient, more expensive, more complex, performed worse, and in the Japanese market, larger is often seen as a detriment.
The main problem with the Insight is that it was very expensive to produce, and therefore was never made in the same numbers as the Prius. It also never had the same sort of marketing.