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The Global Warming Heretic

CapelDodger said:
The age-profile of anti-AGW scientists is massively top-heavy. It's the kind of opposition which will never be persuaded but will simply die out.
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A bunch of old men clinging desperately to the mast they nailed their colours to 20 years ago as it sinks slowly beneath the waves.
 
Pixel42 said:
Only time will prove you right or wrong. All that can be said at the moment is that the last few years are within the expected noise range of the predicted warming trend, so your categorical statement that warming has stopped is unsupportable. No definite conclusion as to whether warming has or has not stopped can yet be drawn.
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There seems to be a misunderstanding, I'm not trying to predict future climate!

What I say is that the last decade is characterized by stable temperatures while the two decades before showed increasing temperatures.

You are claiming to know the future climate trend, I don't. I'm only reporting empirical evidence.
 
Herzblut said:
What I say is that the last decade is characterized by stable temperatures while the two decades before showed increasing temperatures.
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No, what you said is that warming has stopped. You stated that categorically, in so many words. That statement is not (yet?) supported by the data.

You are claiming to know the future climate trend, I don't.
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I am not claiming to know the future climate trend, I am only saying that the data does not (yet?) support the claim that the warming trend has ceased.

I do understand the simplistic point you are making, but you are just being pedantic. Such pettyness is not helpful when discussing such an important subject, especially when so many people are so determined to deny and obfuscate the real issues.
 
Pixel42 said:
No, what you said is that warming has stopped. You stated that categorically, in so many words. That statement is not (yet?) supported by the data.
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Warming has stopped between 1998 and today. What happens tomorrow is a totally different question, which I haven't addressed.

But the IPCC did, projecting the 21st century climate to be dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in a 0.2C temperature increase per decade in the first two decades (~2000-2025). Even in the hypothetical scenario of a total lack of any human CO2 emissions from 2000 on, a temperate increase of 0.1C per decade is projected.

Well, CO2 emissions have soared since 2000 but temperatures haven't.

See page 7 on the IPCC report for policy makers:

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf

I am going to hold the IPCC accountable for their statements. Accountability is a good, old tradition in science, you know.
 
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Herzblut said:
Warming has stopped between 1998 and today. What happens tomorrow is a totally different question, which I haven't addressed.
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Why do you keep repeating this absolute lie when you have been shown that it is a lie dozens of times? That makes YOU dishonest. Repeating it once because you read it on some fascist propaganda site is one thing; We all read things we don't have the scientific knowledge to understand, and life is generally too busy to check everything out - but when you have had the thing pointed out to you as a lie means you are now complicit in that lie.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/22/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange

And dozens more places you could find this information if you bothered to read anything except fascist-run climate blogs.
 
Well, CO2 emissions have soared since 2000 but temperatures haven't.
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Just write him off - plain dunderheaded stupidity.
...energy gain DOES NOT EQUAL TEMPERATURE - how many times do you need it told

If you pour cold water on a stove burner that is on low it gets cooler for a few moments or a couple of years as with La Nina overturning cold ocean........it does not stop putting energy out....period full stop. The physics of GHG doesn't stop - it's energy cumulative all the time.
No one has or will turn the ****ing stove off any time soon.

Pathetic is too mild....plain stupid....moronic...

There is NO DIRECT link between C02 one year and atmospheric temperature and you continue blatant disinformation about trends when it's from peak El Nino to peak La Nina.......just utter tripe....this a science forum.

Go find some wall to paint denidiot graffiti on - you've graduated to full colours.... -:eusa_doh: - go away.
 
A big storm approaches. The weatherman urges everyone to get out of town. The priest says, "I won't worry, God will save me". | AGW looks likely. The climatologists urge everybody investigate. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us.”
The morning of the storm, the police go through the neighbourhood with a sound truck telling everyone to evacuate. The priest says "I won't worry, God will save me". |Average global temperatures rise and environmentalists warn everyone to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us.”
The storm drains back up and there is an inch of water standing in the street. A fire truck comes by to pick up the priest. He tells them "Don't worry, God will save me." |CO2 levels reach 350 ppm as average. Politicians get in on the act and suggest planting trees and other land use changes to absorb CO 2 . Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us.”
The water rises another foot. A National Guard truck comes by to rescue the priest. He tells them "Don't worry, God will save me."|A decade of record breaking average global temperatures Industry develops more efficient systems to reduce energy consumption and expense. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us”
The water rises some more. The priest is forced up to his roof. A boat comes by to rescue the priest. He tells them "Don't worry, God will save me." |Ice shelves break up as global initiatives seek to co-ordinate international cooperation in reducing carbon output. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us”
The water rises higher. The priest is forced up to the very top of his roof. A helicopter comes to rescue the priest. He shouts up at them "Don't worry, God will save me."|With CO 2 levels at the highest level since the death of the dinosaurs, climate modellers and economists collaborate to assess the impact of various likely climate change scenarios. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us”
The water rises above his house, and the priest drowns. |Models are proved somewhat prescient when the hurricane season which has been building in number year on year stumbles across New Orleans. Freeman Dyson says “I won’t worry technology will save us”
When he gets up to heaven he says to God "I've been your faithful servant ever since I was born! Why didn't you save me?"|Humanity will survive whatever climate change throws at it. With any luck the scientific record will be preserved to show Freeman Dyson insisting that technology should have prevented climate change
God replies "First I sent you a fire truck, then the national guard, then a boat, and then a helicopter. What more do you want from me!!??"|Our impoverished descendants will have to wonder, what are all the solutions currently being adopted in the most lacklustre fashion if not technology. What more do we want!!??
 
Herzblut said:
Warming has stopped between 1998 and today.
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Prove it. Oh that’s right, you can’t because the trends since 1998 falls within the error bands of the already established warming trend. Your statement is unsupportable pure and simple, and repeating it over and over will not make it true
 
Herzblut said:
I am going to hold the IPCC accountable for their statements. Accountability is a good, old tradition in science, you know.
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Yes lets hold people accountable for their statements. The IPCC statement is supported by the facts, your statement is not.
 
Herzblut said:
Warming has stopped between 1998 and today. What happens tomorrow is a totally different question, which I haven't addressed. .....
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But Warmers Know the Future. You Question their Knowledge.
 
Pixel42 said:
So am I. I am also going to hold the NIPCC accountable for theirs. Time will tell who has the most to answer for. I'm 55, but I expect to live long enough to find out.
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Let's see, the IPCC is concretely saying the following about global temperature increase in the first two decades of the 21st century:

For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade
is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios. Even
if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had been kept
constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1°C
per decade would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections
increasingly depend on specific emissions scenarios. {3.2}
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It seems the IPCC gets it wrong for the first decade (2000-2011). The projected temperature increase of around 0.1°C to 0.2°C is huge and difficult to achieve in just two years.
 
Herzblut, wishing thinking doesn’t make it so. The measured temperature is within the error bands of the projected rise and is therefore perfectly consistent with the IPCC projections. Since the data is consistent with continued warming it can’t possibly prove warming has stopped.

Again, your assertion simply is not supported by the data. Repeating the assertion will not change this.
 
Herzblut said:
It seems the IPCC gets it wrong for the first decade (2000-2011)
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It will not be possible to say whether the IPCC projection for the first two decades of the 21st century was right or wrong until at least 2025. You don't seem to understand how underlying trends in global temperature are determined. It isn't by comparing the average temperature one year with the average temperature a few years later and seeing if the latter is higher or lower than the former.

Suppose either 2009 or 2010 produces an average global temperature higher than the previous historical record of 1998 (which is entirely possible if either contains a sustained El Nino, something we haven't seen so far this decade). What would you conclude?
 
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Pixel42 said:
It will not be possible to say whether the IPCC projection for the first two decades of the 21st century was right or wrong until at least 2025.
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Which makes them useless, scientifically and politically.
 
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Herzblut said:
Let's see, the IPCC is concretely saying the following about global temperature increase in the first two decades of the 21st century:

It seems the IPCC gets it wrong for the first decade (2000-2011). The projected temperature increase of around 0.1°C to 0.2°C is huge and difficult to achieve in just two years.
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Their predictions have been shown wrong a year or two ago at the 90% confidence level. That's probably higher today. There isn't any reason to argue these points.
 
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