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Lambda-CDM theory - Woo or not?

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Why not just admit it's full of holes and let it die a natural death based on it's extensive list of "anomalies"?

Most cosmologists don't do that because in their expert and informed opinion, the evidence for far outweighs the evidence against. That's because in fact the evidence against is extremely weak, and the evidence for is very strong.

Why all the need to postdict another curve fit, or ignore all the problems with it?

I'm not sure who you're talking to. When I look at the literature, I see hundreds of papers on alternatives to inflation, and hundreds more seeking to explain each of those anomalies with methods ranging from mild modifications of the current model to completely wild speculations.

Precisely who do you think is ignoring this?
 
How can you possibly not *understand* my position at this point in the conversation?
Because I find that your use of language is pretty incoherent and inconsistent.

This thread and the PC woo or not one have quite a few posts which consist, at least in part, of explicit examples of just this (quoting your own words, as you posted them in these threads, to boot).

No. You never should have stuffed "dark energy" in there to begin with. You could have picked anything in nature to stuff in there, but not something you simply "made up".
To quote ben m*: lather, wash, rinse, repeat.

Willful ignorance may be amusing to some, but I find it distasteful.

Well, if you could show it is related to EM fields, then why not? Why leave 75% of your theory "unexplained"?
Annoying habits do die hard, don't they?

If you wish to posit a known force of nature as the *cause of lambda*, I'm ok with it conceptually. If you stuff it with invisible unicorns I'm going to squeal like a stuck pig.
Well, GR is not, repeat NOT, "a known force of nature", but the EFE do contain lambda ... so I guess you are therefore "ok with it conceptually" (for avoidance of doubt, the EFE cannot be described as "invisible unicorns" (except, maybe, by you).

That would be acceptable, yes.

Invisible dead unicorns in a math formula is "woo", yes.
Does it follows, logically, that since no modern cosmological models contain "invisible dead unicorns in [their] math formula[e]", they are not scientific woo, by the MM criterion?

I can't really say. I don't understand the theory all that well. I seems a lot like a quantum field theory or an aether theory of sorts to me. It looks about equally 'untestable", although I have no idea about the falsification possibilities as it relates to QM.

Cool!

Ya, that and the fact that I know which individual made up the woo, and th woo doesn't even fit right in the *ONLY* theory that needs it to survive.
Huh?

So there is an additional criterion, in the MM view of cosmology, that comes into play when judging whether an idea is scientific woo or not? And that criterion is (something like) "I, MM, do not approve of the person who first published this idea"?

The second part - "th woo doesn't even fit right in the *ONLY* theory that needs it to survive" - I do not understand at all; can you clarify please?

Sure. I've also seen the way it has been "tested" thus far, and I've seen all the modifications that have been done over the years.
It seems, then, that you are better informed on this that I.

May I ask you to please, in a few words, summarise what you understand to be the three (say) most impactful, or memorable, or dramatic "modifications that have been done over the years"?

It's "hypothetical" to be sure, but nobody is claiming that it can *never* be found in an actual experiment. It's premature to be stuffing a "hypothetical, nonstandard particle physics theory"into your equations, but that particular "fudge factor" is the least of your worries IMO. The fact it *might* be falsifiable or verifiable in LHC gives in an "aire" of credibility. If there was truth in advertising however, since your theory is based on *three* "hypothetical" entities, it should be called the Lambda-CMD "hypothesis" at *best* case.
But it was you, wasn't it, who attached the word "theory" to it?

I mean, most times I've called it something like "the concordance model" or "LCDM cosmological models", and I think my usage is fairly typical (while yours is very much non-standard).

On top of that, don't we have another ben m moment here (hint: inflations)?

I personally find it repugnant that you need a hypothetical entity in the first place, but as I said, it's only a "hypothesis" that *could be* verified or falsified. Woo can't be verified or falsified in a controlled experiment.
So, your personal feelings aside, even within the MM view of cosmology, CDM is only borderline scientific woo, and could easily become perfectly acceptable to you, per your stated criteria?

The only cosmology theory I have any interest in today is PC/EU theory.
Indeed, whatever that may or may not be ...

Unlike mainstream cosmology theories, it's not useless at predicting events inside of the solar system as Birkeland demonstrated over 100 years ago. It's obviously in it's infancy, and it definitely lacks the mathematical maturity and elegance of current theory, but it works in a lab and it works in space. I can clearly see that EM fields accelerate solar wind as Birkeland predicted and simulated in his lab. I can see those "coronal loops" he predicted and imaged in his lab. I see those jets flying off the sun just as he predicted. His work has real experimental predictive value, whereas inflation is dead, useless to physics today, and doesn't even work right in the only theory that requires or depends on it.
All of that may be so, or it may not (I note that there are a whole bunch of questions to you about this, most of which haven't been answered yet).

But surely your personal preferences re cosmology are beside the point wrt the question that is the title of this thread? I mean, whether a theory/model/whatever is acceptable to you, or preferred by you, or whatever, is independent of whether it's scientific woo or not, isn't it? And, per this post of yours that I'm quoting, even by MM's criteria, the contemporary concordance model(s) is not scientific woo, is it?

* I think it was ben m; if not, could I ask that a diligent reader set the record straight?
 
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MM: The only cosmology theory I have any interest in today is PC/EU theory.

So, you are saying that your mind is totally closed on the issues being debated here, something you say you find repugnant in others.
Then, why bother? If your mind is closed, why are you spending so many hours of your time here.
 
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Most cosmologists don't do that because in their expert and informed opinion,

It's more like a "herd mentality" from the outside looking in.

the evidence for far outweighs the evidence against.

Boloney. You just have a very subjective opinion that many folks do not share with you. You can't empirically demonstrate your case, and you will evidently *never* be able to provide empirical evidence to support your case. It will forever be an act of pure, and I mean *pure* act of faith in a postdicted math formula with no less than three completely hypothetical and metaphysical entities. It's 96% metaphysical fudge factor and only 4% actual physics.

That's because in fact the evidence against is extremely weak, and the evidence for is very strong.

Again, that is a totally subjective opinion. While your faith in the dead inflation deity is obviously quite strong, your actual evidence is flimsy at best, utterly laughable actually IMO. It's pure "made up postdicted math".

I'm not sure who you're talking to. When I look at the literature, I see hundreds of papers on alternatives to inflation, and hundreds more seeking to explain each of those anomalies with methods ranging from mild modifications of the current model to completely wild speculations.

I'm sure your industry is highly interested in postdicting a better fit and adding new "successful predictions" to it's list of inflation achievements. It's been going on now since Guth first proposed the idea. It's a curve fitting exercise with inflation genies and dark evil gnomes.

Precisely who do you think is ignoring this?

Ignoring it? Nah. Curve fitting the math some more to make it fit in spite of the fact inflation failed every single test? Sure. It's like a math religion with you guys. If someone doesn't come along now and create a "better" one that is based on *exactly* the same assumptions that you make, you'll forever believe in dead tooth faeries and dark evil energy gnomes. Gah!

For the most part the mainstream comes across like a herd of cattle IMO. There are I'm sure a few exceptions, but nobody better get too far out of line either or the Nereid's of the industry will make sure your work never gets published again. I've seen her type in action for about 4 years now and I've had my own virtual throat slit at least twice for my heresy. It's got a really ugly side. It's nasty when confronted, and it acts like a cult. That's only the online side of the ugliness too. I'm sure it's even worse in person when your job is at stake.
 
So, you are saying that your mind is totally closed on the issues being debated here, something you say you find repugnant in others.
Then, why bother? If your mind is closed, why are you spending so many hours of your time here.

I was really hoping I had overlooked something, or missed something that was highly important. What I've discovered however is that it's actually worse than I originally imagined, and their minds are the ones that are closed IMO, not mine. I once believed that nonsense too. It's evidently a lot like losing one's religion however. Once your faith is gone, you can't go back and just have "faith" in the idea anymore without a very good reason, and I haven't heard one here so far.
 
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For the most part the mainstream comes across like a herd of cattle IMO. There are I'm sure a few exceptions, but nobody better get too far out of line either or the Nereid's of the industry will make sure your work never gets published again. I've seen her type in action for about 4 years now and I've had my own virtual throat slit at least twice for my heresy. It's got a really ugly side. It's nasty when confronted, and it acts like a cult. That's only the online side of the ugliness too. I'm sure it's even worse in person when your job is at stake.

And there it is - bog-standard physics crackpot paranoia. The evil mainstream is suppressing your brilliant ideas to protect itself. Sure.
I've seen that soooo many times, from soooo many nutjobs....

I suggest you read this and this. Or check out the list of wingnut astro websites here .

Oh wait... your website is the top site in the list of astrocrank sites!!! :jaw-dropp

And you only got a rating of "crankier" - not even crankiest, but better than a mere cranky. Gonna have to work on that.
 
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And there it is - bog-standard physics crackpot paranoia. The evil mainstream is suppressing your brilliant ideas to protect itself. Sure.
I've seen that soooo many times, from soooo many nutjobs....

And there it is - the standard ad hominem in absence of an actual argument. Pity I never claimed to take credit for anything.

Give me a break. Go over and look at that pitiful state of BAUT. It's like a microcosmic example of everything that is wrong with astronomy today. They act like a cult that lives in the dark ages. They literally hold virtual witch hunts where heretics are put on trial, and only allowed to speak for 30 days, or else! If they continue to speak, they are burned at the stake for being a witch. Gah. It's pitiful behavior. It's worse than 99% of the religious websites on the web since most of them don't put the heretics on trial or forbid the atheists to talk about a topic for more than 30 days. It's absolutely bizarre behavior. One can't even discuss empirical physics on that website beyond 30 days, and since 'it's all been discussed before', the threads are immediately locked the moment they start. Come on, sure, it's just my imagination.

I was really hoping I'd missed something, but alas, it's worse than I realized. Even though your inflation deity is dead and forever impotent, it has a cult following anyway. It's like a mathematical religious cult that worships a dead god.
 
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And there it is - the standard ad hominem in absence of an actual argument. Pity I never claimed to take credit for anything.

Give me a break. Go over and look at that pitiful state of BAUT. It's like a microcosmic example of everything that is wrong with astronomy today. They act like a cult that lives in the dark ages. They literally hold virtual witch hunts where heretics are put on trial, and only allowed to speak for 30 days, or else! If they continue to speak, they are burned at the stake for being a witch. Gah. It's pitiful behavior. It's worse than 99% of the religious websites on the web since most of them don't put the heretics on trial or forbid the atheists to talk about a topic for more than 30 days. It's absolutely bizarre behavior. One can't even discuss empirical physics on that website beyond 30 days, and since 'it's all been discussed before', the threads are immediately locked the moment they start. Come on, sure, it's just my imagination.

I was really hoping I'd missed something, but alas, it's worse than I realized. Even though your inflation deity is dead and forever impotent, it has a cult following anyway. It's like a mathematical religious cult that worships a dead god.

MM You stated:
For the most part the mainstream comes across like a herd of cattle IMO. There are I'm sure a few exceptions, but nobody better get too far out of line either or the Nereid's of the industry will make sure your work never gets published again. I've seen her type in action for about 4 years now and I've had my own virtual throat slit at least twice for my heresy. It's got a really ugly side. It's nasty when confronted, and it acts like a cult. That's only the online side of the ugliness too. I'm sure it's even worse in person when your job is at stake.
  1. In what way is the highlighted sentence not a statement that the publishing of scientific papers is censored somehow?
  2. Who is Nereid and what power does she have over the many scientific journals that allows her to veto publishing in them?
 
And there it is - the standard ad hominem in absence of an actual argument.

It's not an ad hominem, because I'm not using it to discredit your statements about physics. That isn't necessary - your claims have already been utterly demolished, not least by you contradicting them yourself over and over. So we're no longer discussing physics in this thread, and the only question left is your motivation.

I've seen many, many self-published books written by various physics cranks. I've received of order 100 emails from them over the last 5 years or so, seen various of their websites, and I've seen maybe 10 come to this forum. I've even been accosted in person several times. So I have a pretty wide experience with them.

Nearly all of these people have certain features in common:

1) they are extremely arrogant, verging on megalomaniacal.

2) they lack even a basic understanding of the area of physics they are attempting to overturn.

3) they believe they have discovered some simple facts the "mainstream" has ignored without good cause.

4) they believe the mainstream is suppressing their ideas because it is afraid of them.

5) they view the mainstream as a united block (united to suppress them in the crankiest cases)

6) they are impervious to logic - even if you force them to admit some problem, they tend to forget almost immediately about it and go back to the same beliefs.

Case in point:

Go over and look at that pitiful state of BAUT. It's like a microcosmic example of everything that is wrong with astronomy today. They act like a cult that lives in the dark ages. They literally hold virtual witch hunts where heretics are put on trial, and only allowed to speak for 30 days, or else! If they continue to speak, they are burned at the stake for being a witch.
 
Most cosmologists don't do that because in their expert and informed opinion, the evidence for far outweighs the evidence against. That's because in fact the evidence against is extremely weak, and the evidence for is very strong.



I'm not sure who you're talking to. When I look at the literature, I see hundreds of papers on alternatives to inflation, and hundreds more seeking to explain each of those anomalies with methods ranging from mild modifications of the current model to completely wild speculations.


Where does Turok and Steinhardt's cyclic model fit into the ranges you provide. I would expect that, as a possibly more exotic inflation has been introduced, it would be compatible the current inflation theory, or is it way off base in your opinion?

Another question about inflation and the conservation of energy.

What are the physics that verify this statement:

If inflation is right,​
everything can be created from nothing,
or at least from very little. If inflation is right, the universe can properly be called the ultimate free lunch.
Alan Guth

 
I think that the isseu as it has been stated is this , we can only observe the effects of the mis-labeled Big Bang (Grand Expansion) is that all observations are post hoc.

We can not at this time determine:
1. What caused the BBE
2. What is the source of the energy in the universe
3. What exists prior to the universe
4. What exists outside the universe

Now these are not consequence of anything in the theory, these are consequence of the space time model in vogue.

Now people may object to the idea that these things can not be determined, yet when they come up with ideas that match the data we have better, then they will have a theory that replaces the current one.
 
Where does Turok and Steinhardt's cyclic model fit into the ranges you provide. I would expect that, as a possibly more exotic inflation has been introduced, it would be compatible the current inflation theory, or is it way off base in your opinion?

Their idea is to introduce a pre-big bang phase, i.e. a phase during which the universe is contracting. When it gets very dense it "bounces", meaning the contraction reverses and the universe begins to expand. It turns out that one can construct models in which, during the contracting phase, the conditions are such as to generate some scale-invariant perturbations. Then with certain assumptions about the bounce, those perturbations form appropriate initial conditions (similar to those produced by inflation) to feed into standard Lambda-CDM and match observations today.

There are a number of very serious problems with this idea. The worst is that not only do we not know of a force that would reverse the contraction, the required properties of such a force make it almost certainly impossible. It's a little hard to explain this, but essentially any force which grows strong enough to resist gravity when the universe is so dense must have extremely bizarre properties, and those properties appear to rule it out (i.e. it would have huge effects even today, which we do not observe). There is some controversy about that, but my impression is that most people in the field do not think such a bounce is possible (or more accurately it might be possible, but it will require some totally unknown and new physics that somehow avoids the problems, and since it's so uncertain how that would work one cannot trust any model that relies on it).

I'll also add that this is an old idea, one that's been proposed many times in many forms since 1915. It never succeeds, because it always runs into this same problem.

What are the physics that verify this statement:

If inflation is right,​
everything can be created from nothing,
or at least from very little. If inflation is right, the universe can properly be called the ultimate free lunch.
Alan Guth


Inflation expands the space enormously. If it's correct, our entire observable universe today was (before inflation) contained in one tiny thermalized region. The virtue is that this explains the otherwise incomprehensible isotropy and perfect black-body-ness of the CMB temperature, the spatial flatness, the large scale homogeneity, and at the same time produces the right spectrum of density perturbations from quantum fluctuations.

As for conservation of energy, I'm not sure what you're asking precisely. All solutions to general relativity conserve energy - whatever energy goes into matter and radiation is compensated for by an increasingly negative gravitational potential (just like a rock falling).
 
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What are the physics that verify this statement:

If inflation is right,​
everything can be created from nothing,
or at least from very little. If inflation is right, the universe can properly be called the ultimate free lunch.
Alan Guth


Pfft. There aren't any "physics" to verify that statement, in fact it violates the conservation of energy laws. There are no "free lunches". This is another of those "mythologies" of the Guth inflation cult. In real physics energy cannot be created or destroyed. This is yet another "clue" that Guth had absolutely no idea what he was talking about when he simply invented inflation in his head.
 
As for conservation of energy, I'm not sure what you're asking precisely. All solutions to general relativity conserve energy - whatever energy goes into matter and radiation is compensated for by an increasingly negative gravitational potential (just like a rock falling).

Sorry, I should have quoted this statement.


"In the inflationary theory the universe begins incredibly small, perhaps as small as 10 –24 cm, a hundred billion times smaller than a proton. The expansion takes place while the false vacuum maintains a nearly constant energy density, which means that the total energy increases by the cube of the linear expansion factor, or at least a factor of 1075. Although this sounds like a blatant violation of energy conservation, it is in fact consistent with physics as we know it." Alan Guth.


Does this imply that the energy has been borrowed from gravity (Newton and Einstein), and if so what are the repayment terms?



Deflation?
 
Inflation expands the space enormously.

What does that have to do with the *laws of conservation of energy*?


As for conservation of energy, I'm not sure what you're asking precisely.

A denouncement of Guth's statement would be in order.

All solutions to general relativity conserve energy - whatever energy goes into matter and radiation is compensated for by an increasingly negative gravitational potential (just like a rock falling).

Whaaaaaaaaat? Are you trying to tell me that the universe has a net zero energy now?
 
Whaaaaaaaaat? Are you trying to tell me that the universe has a net zero energy now?

Of course. Didn't you know? Of course not: you're clueless about GR even though you think you aren't. That's bog-standard GR, too: it applies regardless of the mechanism which stores energy, so it's a feature which is independent of dark matter, dark energy, and inflation.
 
It's not an ad hominem,

Of course it is. I also never claimed to take credit for squat, I've written no books, am I not even trying to overturn anything related to "physics", because inflation is pure "woo" not physics. It *never* shows up in a real physical experiment.
 
Does this imply that the energy has been borrowed from gravity (Newton and Einstein), and if so what are the repayment terms?




Deflation?


Or

The mass of the matter at the start of the universe applied to E=MC^2 would yield that amount of energy?​
 
The obvious difference between inflation and neutrons is that one shows up in an actual experiment with real control mechanisms and the other never could. I know that neutrons exist in nature. I can't scale them to a size necessary to be certain they "degenerate under pressure", but so what? I can't stuff enough mass together to build something with an event horizon either. I can't put enough hydrogen together to create a working sun here on Earth. I have no trouble letting anyone scale a known thing/force/curvature to size *as long as* they can demonstrate they aren't trying to scale an imaginary thing, like invisible dead inflation unicorns. :)

So proposing a new particle that hasn't been seen in labs is woo but proposing a new state of matter which hasn't been seen in a lab isn't? I don't get it.
 
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