alien life possibility is pathetic

[Belz...]

I can guarantee you than intelligent life will not be found in the next 100 years. SETI might as well send signals through an empty galaxy.

Golly, I'd just love to see your face if it happened tomorrow.

 

[Belz...]

Obviously, poking for apes in forests, if you don't find what you're looking for, it still obviously exists, even though you've practically poked through the entire forest, but you just haven't found it yet!

Meanwhile, contacting alien life, it obviously doesn't exist, because we poked through 0.00000000000000000000000000001% of space!

Totally logical!

Don't you just love bigfooters ?

 

[dirtygreek]

As much as I love seeing education happen in real time, if anyone has any insights on my thoughts on Page 16 (post 629... I can't post links yet), I'd love to hear them. I'd like to know what science-minded people think about this.

 

[Bell]

As much as I love seeing education happen in real time, if anyone has any insights on my thoughts on Page 16 (post 629... I can't post links yet), I'd love to hear them. I'd like to know what science-minded people think about this.

Hi DirtyGreek and welcome! I've quoted the post for you:

Yes, I think there's a chance that there is intelligent life out there, even life as intelligent as or more intelligent than we are. However, I highly doubt that any of them will create space-faring civilizations. I definitely don't think they've visited us. Here's why.

Civilization, the organizational structures that support it, and the mindframe necessary to actually allow it to happen without realizing that it goes against almost everything that our brains and bodies are programmed for, happened because of a long string of accidents, drastic climatological changes, and other such situations. Civilization wasn't a natural offshoot of human history, quite the opposite.

Homo Sapiens has been around a few hundred thousand years, and human ancestors have been around for millions, but civilization, government, organized religion, and agriculture have only been around for 8-10,000 years - the evolutionary blink of an eye. We didn't evolve into it, either. We are, physically and biologically, exactly the same as our ancestors of 300,000 years ago.

Also, let us keep in mind that we don't know the odds of an intelligent race developing, say, opposable thumbs or an equivalent physical structure capable of allowing the development of agriculture and the building of homes and cities, much less space-faring ships. They could be highly intelligent plants or even protozoa. We just don't know.

Therefore, even though a human-like species (or something much much more intelligent) could possibly be living very happily on another planet or a million other planets, I highly doubt that they have or will ever reach the "civilized" point that allows for something like space travel.

At least, I hope they don't. One is enough.

 

[Lonewulf]

Yes, I think there's a chance that there is intelligent life out there, even life as intelligent as or more intelligent than we are. However, I highly doubt that any of them will create space-faring civilizations. I definitely don't think they've visited us. Here's why.

Let's ignore the "visiting us" part. That's not what anyof this argument is about.

I think it's perfectly possible that there are other space faring civilizations. After all, we've set foot into space, and are sending vessels outside of our solar system. I think it's perfectly possible for there to be other examples of us.

Civilization, the organizational structures that support it, and the mindframe necessary to actually allow it to happen without realizing that it goes against almost everything that our brains and bodies are programmed for, happened because of a long string of accidents, drastic climatological changes, and other such situations. Civilization wasn't a natural offshoot of human history, quite the opposite.

Even if that were true, a species would just be sent into a new cycle, as eventually the species in question would die out thanks to changes in environment, and another species would rise. The cycle would continue until something breaks it, as we've done, and can influence their environment, or how they live within it.

Homo Sapiens has been around a few hundred thousand years, and human ancestors have been around for millions, but civilization, government, organized religion, and agriculture have only been around for 8-10,000 years - the evolutionary blink of an eye. We didn't evolve into it, either. We are, physically and biologically, exactly the same as our ancestors of 300,000 years ago.

Yeah, okay.

Also, let us keep in mind that we don't know the odds of an intelligent race developing, say, opposable thumbs or an equivalent physical structure capable of allowing the development of agriculture and the building of homes and cities, much less space-faring ships. They could be highly intelligent plants or even protozoa. We just don't know.

How do we define intelligent? Under this criteria, I think that dolphins and similar creatures could easily qualify. So you could have multiple species on a single world with higher intelligence... raising the odds of one reaching space-faring capacity.

And you're right, we don't know the odds. So saying what is and isn't likely seems to be a bit premature, if the odds are still a variable.

Therefore, even though a human-like species (or something much much more intelligent) could possibly be living very happily on another planet or a million other planets, I highly doubt that they have or will ever reach the "civilized" point that allows for something like space travel.

You're welcome to your doubt. I can accept that space-faring civilizations would be more rare than life in general (say, 1,000 for every 100,000 life-bearing worlds), but doubting that any could exist at all? Sorry, can't agree with you. I don't think you get just how large the field we're playing with is.

At least, I hope they don't. One is enough.

Heavily disagreed. I'm not misanthropic, and find our changes better than worse. Hearkening back to the "golden age" of wandering and starving or becoming diseased at the whims of the elements is not my cup of tea. What more beautiful ability is there, than to be able to roam the stars?

 

[dirtygreek]

You're right on a few points - I guess my post really over exaggerates my doubt. I think my main question is whether anyone else has ever heard theories on ET life that involve taking the chance of stratified societies, not to mention grasping mechanisms like hands, resource availability, etc into account. I haven't, and it seems like people take it as read that "intelligent" species would also be "civilized" or living in highly organized societies like ours.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

How long do you think SETI has been sending signals into the galaxy?

I'm pretty sure not at all. As far as I'm aware SETI is a program for searching for an incoming radio signal, not broadcasting signals.

Even with the big radio telescope at Arecibo, we could not detect a civilization just like our own (that is TV and radio broadcasts) from even the nearest stars.

To get a hit for SETI would require someone doing something we ourselves haven't been doing: continuously broadcasting a narrow beam signal right at specific stars (or where they will be when the signal reaches that position--depending on the distance).

 

[Lonewulf]

I'm pretty sure not at all. As far as I'm aware SETI is a program for searching for an incoming radio signal, not broadcasting signals.

Even with the big radio telescope at Arecibo, we could not detect a civilization just like our own (that is TV and radio broadcasts) from even the nearest stars.

To get a hit for SETI would require someone doing something we ourselves haven't been doing: continuously broadcasting a narrow beam signal right at specific stars (or where they will be when the signal reaches that position--depending on the distance).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Message_to_Extra-Terrestrial_Intelligence

These projects have targeted stars between 20 and 69 light-years from the Earth. The exception is the Arecibo message, which targeted globular cluster M13, approximately 24,000 light-years away. The first message to reach its destination will be A Message From Earth, which should reach Gliese 581 in Libra in 2029.

 

[Lonewulf]

You're right on a few points - I guess my post really over exaggerates my doubt. I think my main question is whether anyone else has ever heard theories on ET life that involve taking the chance of stratified societies, not to mention grasping mechanisms like hands, resource availability, etc into account. I haven't, and it seems like people take it as read that "intelligent" species would also be "civilized" or living in highly organized societies like ours.

I'm right on ALL points. I'm always right, period.

*ahem*

Well, you are right in that there are a lot of requirements. I still advocate the "cycling" of a planet, however; if a species is not able to control their environment, they're not capable of resisting shifts and changes that any world would go through, and eventually life would "reset" the balance. That's certainly how the Earth worked out, and while intelligent life took a while to come around, who says that intelligent life *always* has to come later, than sooner?

As for stratified societies, here on Earth, almost universally, this came with the invention of farms. You need a stratified system once you start laying down land, and need to compete with others over local resources for long periods of time (and need a way to keep it all running). However, intelligent life will probably necessarily get tired of being at the mercy of the elements, especially over food and water, and want to settle in where there's an abundance of both, and learn how to grow its own for when things get bad... although it might be interesting to see what would happen if a world had a pretty minimal winter throughout most of its landmasses, so there was no need to really "prepare for winter"... which could change things dramatically.

 

[Hitch]

I'm pretty sure not at all. As far as I'm aware SETI is a program for searching for an incoming radio signal, not broadcasting signals.

I was hoping Makaya would respond because his post seemed to imply he didn't know that.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Message_to_Extra-Terrestrial_Intelligence

I stand corrected.

But none of these signals are being broadcast on a sustained basis, are they? So if a civilization just like ours were at the other end, they'd only get out message if they have their big radio telescopes focused on the right spot in their sky at the right moment.

I just read that the Arecibo Message duration was 1679 seconds, and it was aimed at the place where the star is now (and won't be in 25,000 years when the message arrives).

My point is that the results of SETI still don't prove that a civilization just like ours doesn't exist in the nearest solar systems even right now.

 

[kitakaze]

Homo Sapiens has been around a few hundred thousand years, and human ancestors have been around for millions, but civilization, government, organized religion, and agriculture have only been around for 8-10,000 years - the evolutionary blink of an eye. We didn't evolve into it, either. We are, physically and biologically, exactly the same as our ancestors of 300,000 years ago.

Modern Homo sapiens appear around 200,000 years ago. The first undisputed Homo sapien fossils are from 160,000 years ago (Homo sapien idaltu). Great changes in technology don't come until 100,000 years BP and modern behaviour at 50,000 years BP.

http://anthropology.si.edu/humanorigins/ha/sap.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaic_Homo_sapiens

Welcome to the JREF, dirtygreek.

 

[Lonewulf]

I stand corrected.

But none of these signals are being broadcast on a sustained basis, are they? So if a civilization just like ours were at the other end, they'd only get out message if they have their big radio telescopes focused on the right spot in their sky at the right moment.

I just read that the Arecibo Message duration was 1679 seconds, and it was aimed at the place where the star is now (and won't be in 25,000 years when the message arrives).

They're specifically directed, so they have a huge boost compared to an omnidirectional radio system; I'd imagine that that would make them much easier to pick up. Still, yeah, it's questionable whether or not the alien species would be able to pick it up.

My point is that the results of SETI still don't prove that a civilization just like ours doesn't exist in the nearest solar systems even right now.

Nope. Plus, the signals I mentioned, wouldn't even get a reply for a century or so... after all, the radio signals are going below the speed of light, to MANY light years away, and a response, unless using some form of FTL communications, would take about as long. Perhaps the speed of light if using a laser-based message.

 

[Correa Neto]

Dirtygreek, as you wrote, "we don't know". We don't know how many worlds have biospheres, we don't know how many of the former have multicellular lifeforms, we don't know how many of the former have sentient species, we don't know how many of the former became space fairing civilizations.

All we can do is speculate.

Our case involved development of stratified societies. Are they always required? I don't know.
Could our civilization have developed say, 50Ky earlier? Maybe, but I realy don't know.
Could a sentient species develop a purely philosophical civilization, with little if any technology? Maybe, but I realy don't know.

Some of this stuff enters in to sci-fi realm... There's little if any grounds for anything other than speculations.

 

[Belz...]

after all, the radio signals are going below the speed of light

How are they slower than light ? Aren't they light ?

 

[Lonewulf]

How are they slower than light ? Aren't they light ?

Hm.

Not sure if travelling through the atmosphere into space would slow it down, but you're actually right. According to this:

The velocity (or speed) of a radio wave radiated into free space by a transmitting antenna is equal to the speed of light - 186,000 miles per second or 300,000,000 meters per second. Because of various factors, such as barometric pressure, humidity, molecular content, etc., radio waves travel inside the Earth's atmosphere at a speed slightly less than the speed of light. Normally, in discussions of the velocity of radio waves, the velocity referred to is the speed at which radio waves travel in free space.

(I hate the spacebar on this laptop).

On Earth, radio waves are slower. In space, it goes the speed of light, as yes, "radio" is just a certain wavelength of light...

 

[dirtygreek]

Modern Homo sapiens appear around 200,000 years ago. The first undisputed Homo sapien fossils are from 160,000 years ago (Homo sapien idaltu). Great changes in technology don't come until 100,000 years BP and modern behaviour at 50,000 years BP.

Right, well, depending on what you mean by modern behavior (burials, obvious groupings of individuals into clans or tribes, etc)

Our case involved development of stratified societies. Are they always required? I don't know.
Could our civilization have developed say, 50Ky earlier? Maybe, but I realy don't know.
Could a sentient species develop a purely philosophical civilization, with little if any technology? Maybe, but I realy don't know.

Well, I suppose it depends on whose anthropology classes you take or what books you read, but if you listen to Marvin Harris or his more wooey but still very sharp students like Daniel Quinn, you'll see that not everyone thinks stratified societies, "civilization" as we know it, or even farming would have ever happened were it not for some extremely unusual environmental conditions and other developments.

It's thought, at least in some circles, that modern agriculture started 8-10,000 years ago in the "Fertile Crescent." Much later, some form of farming was also started in South America. The point, however, is that not only the environmental conditions that allowed farming, but the conditions that made it even a possibility, didn't happen until after the ice age ended.

Since our ancestors existed for millenia before the ice age as well, and their population doesn't seem to have started growing quickly until after agriculture allowed that, it seems that agriculture, and therefore civilization, were never an obvious step in human history. There are still peoples who don't farm or have anything like what we consider civilization, and one of the reasons there are so few is "modern" humans have killed, displaced, or otherwise absorbed them.

But sure, of course we don't *know* for sure whether these things had to happen this way - and of course it's all just speculation - isn't that the point of a thread about the possibility of alien life?

 

[Belz...]

On Earth, radio waves are slower. In space, it goes the speed of light, as yes, "radio" is just a certain wavelength of light...

It's worth noting that they are only "slower" because they have to take longer paths to get to where they're going. Otherwise their speed is constant at c.

 

[Correa Neto]

OT digression warning!!!!

Dirtygreek- Ice ages (actually glacial minima and maxima) are not the sole factor one must take in to account when it comes to development of our civilization(s). To have a farm, one must first have plants and animals selectively bred to farming - rice, cattle, goats, wheat, corn, potatoes, etc. And this takes time, especially because it was not a guided process.

Steve Mithens' After The Ice has a good review of the development of farms, cities and societies.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

They're specifically directed, so they have a huge boost compared to an omnidirectional radio system; I'd imagine that that would make them much easier to pick up. Still, yeah, it's questionable whether or not the alien species would be able to pick it up.

Assuming someone was looking at the correct spot in their sky at the exact right time.