Is GM finished?

I just saw a piece on Toyota and wages paid at their Camry plant. The average wage is $33/hr, $3/hr above the average union wage. I'm just wondering where all the ill informed from previous posts stands on this? I seem to remember a big brew-ha-ha about the Union wage being so much above yada yada. I guess everyone is trying to figure out what the B of A did with the 25 Million they got from TARP and the 10 Billion they got when they bought Merrill Lynch. The B of A is back begging for more after they already got more than the Big 3 combined. :)
 
The Detroit automakers have routinely accepted work rules and wages that almost guaranteed their long term destruction. They traded the future equity of the company away in return for the short term goal of labor peace.

So Detroit ended up stuck with work rules that were likely to destroy them in any kind of serious downturn. When they sell less cars, they make less money and they have more workers who need to be paid to do nothing. The more money they lose, the more money they lose. And they have to keep paying the retirement benefits to the workers from long ago. The union made a deal which in the long term would make themselves the de facto owners of the company. But they don't want the companies. Nobody would want these companies after their assets have been savaged by the self serving synergy of corrupt management and the unions.

So all those benefits that the union was so skillful in extracting are now essentially worthless. The companies can't afford to pay the workers who they need, let alone all the workers who are retired and don't work or who are playing solitaire. But there is a grain of hope for the unions.

They can get the American taxpayer to take over where the car company stockholders no longer can. Of course, it is wildly unfair to the American taxpayers who are scrambling in this recession trying to make the best out of what they have without forced to bail out the politically connected. And it is wildly unfair to the other car companies (including Ford) in the US now have to compete with the government subsidized GM and Chrysler. And it is horrible for the city of Detroit who will continue to be strattled with a dieing industry and no real hope of attracting new employers or industry while the politics of the UAW continue to destroy the town.

So Toyota might pay its workers roughly what GM pays its workers, but how many workers does Toyota pay to play solitaire all day? How many retirees is Toyota funding? How many pages are in the Toyota work rules manual interfering with worker productivity? You can slice this anyway you want, but money is being taken from people all over this country to save an industry that is now largely redundant and that's sitting on its ass doing nothing except begging for all the bailout money that it can get.
 
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You have to be careful with worker pay as Toyota plants are highly automated/

The new Woodstock facility will produce Toyota's compact SUV, the RAV4. It will initially have an annual capacity of producing 75 000 units per shift.

1200 workers TOTAL.......

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/toyota-plant-grand-opening-create/story.aspx?guid={14161E12-4866-4D2C-B274-A45DD8CE641A}&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN

You do the math.....
 
The Detroit automakers have routinely accepted work rules and wages that almost guaranteed their long term destruction. They traded the future equity of the company away in return for the short term goal of labor peace.

So Detroit ended up stuck with work rules that were likely to destroy them in any kind of serious downturn. When they sell less cars, they make less money and they have more workers who need to be paid to do nothing. The more money they lose, the more money they lose. And they have to keep paying the retirement benefits to the workers from long ago. The union made a deal which in the long term would make themselves the de facto owners of the company. But they don't want the companies. Nobody would want these companies after their assets have been savaged by the self serving synergy of corrupt management and the unions.

So all those benefits that the union was so skillful in extracting are now essentially worthless. The companies can't afford to pay the workers who they need, let alone all the workers who are retired and don't work or who are playing solitaire. But there is a grain of hope for the unions.

They can get the American taxpayer to take over where the car company stockholders no longer can. Of course, it is wildly unfair to the American taxpayers who are scrambling in this recession trying to make the best out of what they have without forced to bail out the politically connected. And it is wildly unfair to the other car companies (including Ford) in the US now have to compete with the government subsidized GM and Chrysler. And it is horrible for the city of Detroit who will continue to be strattled with a dieing industry and no real hope of attracting new employers or industry while the politics of the UAW continue to destroy the town.

So Toyota might pay its workers roughly what GM pays its workers, but how many workers does Toyota pay to play solitaire all day? How many retirees is Toyota funding? How many pages are in the Toyota work rules manual interfering with worker productivity? You can slice this anyway you want, but money is being taken from people all over this country to save an industry that is now largely redundant and that's sitting on its ass doing nothing except begging for all the bailout money that it can get.

Nope, Toyota has the same policy of paying workers during down time as the Big 3.

There were none paid to play Euchre or solitaire in my plant(s). Are there jobs that have more free time than others? Certainly. Very few line workers had this much time, but there were skilled trades who did. Why? Because when they were needed they were needed right away and couldn't be tied up with other responsibilities in case the line went down. A skilled trade worker can earn his or her yearly wage in about 5 minutes. If they respond and get the line going, each minute they save the company makes the company $15-20K. You do the math, pay a guy $65K a year to sit around a be ready to act when needed or risk the line being down for 5 minutes in a year. This is a no brainer.
Of course skilled trades also presented the biggest problem at times. It only takes 1 bad apple to spoil the bunch and there were more than one bad apples. These bad apples tended to be lazy and arrogant. That's my experience at least.

I slice it this way, the automotive industry generated millions of well paying jobs. Autoworkers don't hoard their money, they put it back into the economy. They made big wages, paid big taxes and spread the rest through the community. Now they need some back.
 
You have to be careful with worker pay as Toyota plants are highly automated/



1200 workers TOTAL.......

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/toyota-plant-grand-opening-create/story.aspx?guid={14161E12-4866-4D2C-B274-A45DD8CE641A}&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN

You do the math.....

I'll do the math

We built that in about 15 weeks: http://www.theautochannel.com/news/press/date/20000825/press023802.html

The article says there are 6100 workers. I'm not sure how they got that figure, we ran about 1200-1500 people per shift as well: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2008/10/17/chrysler-shift.html

All automotive vehicle plants are as highly automated as they can be. Toyota has the same robots doing the same jobs as any other manufacturing plant.

Read this: http://www.autofieldguide.com/articles/wip/0706wip08.html

As far a productivity goes the Big 3 are tops. The problem is flexibility. The Japanese enjoyed the benefit of being able to build more modern plants, allowing them to build more flexible facilities. The Big 3 have older plants that are limited. Trying to close this gap, while maintaining legacy costs, during a global economic slow down is what's killing them.
 
GM should have declared bankruptcy; they will never recover after going on the public dole.

But I'm still waiting to see if GM will cave to the UAW pressure and take over the Chrysler plants (and UAW workers). And whether Ford will grow a set or roll over too.
 
Nope, Toyota has the same policy of paying workers during down time as the Big 3.

...

You and I are just not going to agree on this 3bodyproblem, but in response to this:

Is Toyota on the edge of bankruptcy? Is Toyota paying workers in a down time that it expects never to have jobs for again?

As to the rest of the stuff, does Toyota have some several thousand page work rule book deciding what workers can and can't do to make cars?

Right now the government is taking money out of the economy that could keep lots of workers employed and giving it to GM executives, GM dealers, GM solitaire players, GM bondholders and GM union workers who so far haven't sacrificed a damn thing with the net effect of reducing overall the number of people employed in the US. And when all is said and done GM will still probably be a company strattled with too many dealerships, too many brands, too much production capacity, and too many legacy costs. If there was ever a time when bankruptcy laws would be useful this was it.

A leaner, meaner GM without the legacy stuff and with renegotiated terms from its bond holders might just make it. And if it couldn't with all that what the hell was the point of putting all this money into it?
 
I just saw a piece on Toyota and wages paid at their Camry plant. The average wage is $33/hr, $3/hr above the average union wage. I'm just wondering where all the ill informed from previous posts stands on this? I seem to remember a big brew-ha-ha about the Union wage being so much above yada yada. I guess everyone is trying to figure out what the B of A did with the 25 Million they got from TARP and the 10 Billion they got when they bought Merrill Lynch. The B of A is back begging for more after they already got more than the Big 3 combined. :)

Need evidence of the wages thing...could you post a link.

There is a big difference between a manufacturing company going down the drain and the world losing confidence in the banking industry. Any run on the banks would could cause very wide panic. If the big three go bankrupt, it would be disruptive, but not something that could cause a world wide depression. Now, it isn't fair...but life isn't fair.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081118/BUSINESS/81118049

glenn
 
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Right now the government is taking money out of the economy that could keep lots of workers employed and giving it to GM executives, GM dealers, GM solitaire players, GM bondholders and GM union workers who so far haven't sacrificed a damn thing with the net effect of reducing overall the number of people employed in the US.


Huh? How the hell do you take money "out of the economy" short of putting it into a mattress?

The government put a lot of money into GM, granted. And you're right, the company turned around and put that money into executives, dealers, bondholders, shareholders, union workers --- and probably doctors, lawyers, Indian chiefs, and grounds keepers. Who, in turn, took their money and spent it on beautiful women and olive oil, and the beautiful women turned around and spent it on cell phones and lipstick, and the lipstick manufacturers spent it shipping more makeup to the store, and the trucking company gave their share of the money to the tire manufacturer, who ....

This is "out of the economy"?

This is reducing the number of people employed?

What economic theory is this?
 
Huh? How the hell do you take money "out of the economy" short of putting it into a mattress?

The government put a lot of money into GM, granted. And you're right, the company turned around and put that money into executives, dealers, bondholders, shareholders, union workers --- and probably doctors, lawyers, Indian chiefs, and grounds keepers. Who, in turn, took their money and spent it on beautiful women and olive oil, and the beautiful women turned around and spent it on cell phones and lipstick, and the lipstick manufacturers spent it shipping more makeup to the store, and the trucking company gave their share of the money to the tire manufacturer, who ....

This is "out of the economy"?

This is reducing the number of people employed?

What economic theory is this?

Hi drkitten,
More explicitly what I was talking about was that the government took money out of the economy that would otherwise have been spent on products that are almost always made by people who make less money than GM executives, GM dealers, GM bondholders, GM solitaire players, and GM workers. In addition, the government incurred a cost at retrieving that money from the tax payers.

So the net effect of the government's largess is to increase the unemployment rate or at the very least make everybody else a little poorer.

Now you might argue, "no, allowing a giant corporation like GM to fail with all of the waste of invested capital that would entail (both GM capital and GM supplier capital) would cause more unemployment".

If that was your argument, I would think it was at least a plausible one. However, I suspect that there are some things that make it not correct in this case.
1. If GM had been allowed to declare bankruptcy or at least a pseudo bankruptcy had been attempted, the capital of GM's production would not evaporate into thin air. It is possible (and I think likely) that a GM reinvigorated with new labor contracts, new concessions from its bond holders, stripped of its legacy costs, with a reduced brand port folio, with at least some significant new management and a reduced number of dealerships might be in a position to make very good use of its capital and become a successful company again.
2. If GM still failed despite all that, its production capital would still not evaporate into thin air. It would be purchased on the cheap by other companies who might be able to make more advantageous use of it than GM.
3. And if I was completely wrong about 1 and 2 then what was the point of saving GM? The production capital must have been of such low value because the country just didn't need as many car companies as it had and it needed to reduce some of that capacity. And whose jobs would you seek to get rid of in that case? Toyota workers who are building cars that people are buying or GM workers and GM solitaire players who are not building cars that people are buying right now?
 
You and I are just not going to agree on this 3bodyproblem, but in response to this:

Is Toyota on the edge of bankruptcy? Is Toyota paying workers in a down time that it expects never to have jobs for again?

As to the rest of the stuff, does Toyota have some several thousand page work rule book deciding what workers can and can't do to make cars?

Right now the government is taking money out of the economy that could keep lots of workers employed and giving it to GM executives, GM dealers, GM solitaire players, GM bondholders and GM union workers who so far haven't sacrificed a damn thing with the net effect of reducing overall the number of people employed in the US. And when all is said and done GM will still probably be a company strattled with too many dealerships, too many brands, too much production capacity, and too many legacy costs. If there was ever a time when bankruptcy laws would be useful this was it.

A leaner, meaner GM without the legacy stuff and with renegotiated terms from its bond holders might just make it. And if it couldn't with all that what the hell was the point of putting all this money into it?


Well we don't have to agree. All I'm trying to do is lay blame where blame is due and present all the facts. I see a lot of people making statements that aren't really supported by the evidence. Living so close to Detroit and having been part of the industry both as a Union worker and management I have a little better understanding of what's actually going on. I'm learning as well, I don't know everything.

I don't know if Toyota or any of the other Japanese manufacturers are on the verge of banruptcy. I know Toyota took a $1.7 Billion loss last year, and that looming legacy costs were projected, before the economy collapsed, to make Toyota unprofitable by 2013. I know Japan has and continues to subsidize Toyota. Based on this and what I saw, I can extrapolate that Toyota may be paying people in down time to sit on jobs they may never return to. I don't think it's as dire as with GM or Chrysler though.

The big banks inflated the economy, over appraised homes and lent money to people who couldn't pay it back. They put money into the economy that didn't exist in order to make outrageous profits. That's the problem here.

The consequences of which continue to be felt around the World. The only way out of this is re-invest in a home grown industry; the automtive industry. That and down size these massive banking institutions, on their own or with the governments assistance if they resist.

As for Toyota NA, they've got the benefit of not only bizarre tax relief in the Southern States, but support of the parent Nation. The thrive on this myth that they make a substantially better product, at lesser costs with magic automation the likes of which we can only dream about. Time to take a closer look at what's going on, where the money is going and even what's going on inside these plants.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpa...7A3575AC0A9619C8B63&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all
At the bottom of this NY Times article you'll notice they have tracked some 1800 workers who are no longer employed at that plant. I think that's an interesting number if it's true. I know how dangerous it can be inside these plants, and what repetative strain can do to the body. There's something to be said about seniority there.
I just don't know if banruptcy and restructuring afterwards will do anything but put us back 50 years. I think that's a bigger gamble than infusing them with some cash and getting through this intact.
 
Need evidence of the wages thing...could you post a link.

There is a big difference between a manufacturing company going down the drain and the world losing confidence in the banking industry. Any run on the banks would could cause very wide panic. If the big three go bankrupt, it would be disruptive, but not something that could cause a world wide depression. Now, it isn't fair...but life isn't fair.

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081118/BUSINESS/81118049

glenn

I saw it on TV. Did some Googling and coudln't find much about this specific piece. Did find several mentions to parity on wages at the Camry plant and Union ones. I wish I remembered what news show it was on. I think it was on CTV? I was flipping channels. I do remember a woman stating she made $94K last year.

It's not so much a company as the industry itself. We've seen this whole fiasco cascade down the line over the last 8 months. The worst case scenario may not involve a World Wide depression, but it may mean a NA depression.
 
If that was your argument, I would think it was at least a plausible one. However, I suspect that there are some things that make it not correct in this case.
1. If GM had been allowed to declare bankruptcy or at least a pseudo bankruptcy had been attempted, the capital of GM's production would not evaporate into thin air. It is possible (and I think likely) that a GM reinvigorated with new labor contracts, new concessions from its bond holders, stripped of its legacy costs, with a reduced brand port folio, with at least some significant new management and a reduced number of dealerships might be in a position to make very good use of its capital and become a successful company again.
2. If GM still failed despite all that, its production capital would still not evaporate into thin air. It would be purchased on the cheap by other companies who might be able to make more advantageous use of it than GM.
3. And if I was completely wrong about 1 and 2 then what was the point of saving GM? The production capital must have been of such low value because the country just didn't need as many car companies as it had and it needed to reduce some of that capacity. And whose jobs would you seek to get rid of in that case? Toyota workers who are building cars that people are buying or GM workers and GM solitaire players who are not building cars that people are buying right now?


Stripped of the legacy costs alone would make them profitable again.

http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2008/11/crippling-burden-of-legacy-costs-gm-is.html

4.61 retirees per working person at GM. I guess if they disappeared we'd all be better off. I therefore suggest A Modest Proposal: For Preventing the Children of Poor People retirees in Ireland America from Being a Burden to Their Parents Children or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Public

I think you need to stop by a plant and work a few days on the line. I'm betting you'd rethink your "GM solitaire players" line pretty quickly.
 
Stripped of the legacy costs alone would make them profitable again. ...
I didn't read your link, but doesn't that make my point?

GM needed to go into bankruptcy. Eliminate the crap that makes profitability impossible and have another go at it.

Right now the plan is to burden every individual living in the US with GM welfare payments and to prevent them from having to face the reality that most other Americans are facing right now. If this was some sort of sudden problem caused by some random unforeseeable event, I'd think it was a fine idea to help them. But it wasn't.

This looks much more like a systemic problem that just isn't going to go away by throwing money at it. GM has been paying a CEO millions of dollars a year to guide a company that loses billions of dollars every year. I think they could have gotten a CEO who could lose billions of dollars every year for a lot less.

I have no doubt that people work hard at GM. People all over the US work hard. Circuit City Workers worked hard. The people that were laid off in my brother's furniture factor worked hard. The fact is that the US is coming down from the largest ponzi scheme in the history of the world and it is going to take time for the economy to readjust. Having the government step in and prevent that from happening in a few politically connected industries is not going to help.
 
I guess if they disappeared we'd all be better off. I therefore suggest A Modest Proposal: For Preventing the Children of Poor People retirees in Ireland America from Being a Burden to Their Parents Children or Country, and for Making Them Beneficial to the Public

really...long pig barbecues of retirees? ....hmmm :wink:
 
I didn't read your link, but doesn't that make my point?

GM needed to go into bankruptcy. Eliminate the crap that makes profitability impossible and have another go at it.

Right now the plan is to burden every individual living in the US with GM welfare payments and to prevent them from having to face the reality that most other Americans are facing right now. If this was some sort of sudden problem caused by some random unforeseeable event, I'd think it was a fine idea to help them. But it wasn't.

This looks much more like a systemic problem that just isn't going to go away by throwing money at it. GM has been paying a CEO millions of dollars a year to guide a company that loses billions of dollars every year. I think they could have gotten a CEO who could lose billions of dollars every year for a lot less.

I have no doubt that people work hard at GM. People all over the US work hard. Circuit City Workers worked hard. The people that were laid off in my brother's furniture factor worked hard. The fact is that the US is coming down from the largest ponzi scheme in the history of the world and it is going to take time for the economy to readjust. Having the government step in and prevent that from happening in a few politically connected industries is not going to help.


The "burden" the tax payers will bare to carry these companies during the down-turn is nothing compared to what it will cost them to turn these people loose on the system. The loss of tax revenue, the increase in unemployment, increase in welfare claims, Social Security etc. associated with GM's bakruptcy is far greater. This "burden" is a loan, they stand a chance of being paid back when things return to normal. Even if you consider this a welfare payment as you have, they are working for it. I guess this is the difference between my Canadian Socialist viewpoint and your American Capatalist viewpoint.

Rick Wagoner made $15 Million in 2007. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Wagoner

GM paid $17 Million for Viagra the same year:
http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2006/04/gm_viagra.html

It's hard (no pun intended) to put a dollar figure on the benefit of keeping your workers happy and productive. Still, while these figures seem high to you and me, in this corporate World, they only represent a small fraction of what these companies make. And when they don't make money? Well, in an ideal world they wouldn't get paid. Neither would the losing lawyer in a lawsuit, the doctor that misdiagnosed, the investor that lost money or the engineer that built the crappy bridge.
 
I see that GM continues to dangle in the wind.

The government gave them enough money to keep them alive for a few more months without any of the stakeholders being forced to make the kinds of concessions necessary for GM to become a sustainable enterprise again.

All the executives and board members that scammed so successfully to burn up bond holder and stock holder equity to keep themselves well stocked in massive salaries and bonuses while they were doing it are still in place.

And now GM wants more money. No surprise there.

What might turn out to be a bit of a surprise at least for me is that the Obama administration might actually force stakeholders to make significant concessions before they give GM a few more bucks. My own sense of it is that real bankruptcy (at least chapter 11) is the only thing that is going to force the necessary concessions.

Years ago GM bought short term labor peace by giving away massive unsustainable pension benefits. Those pension benefits are now essentially worthless. It is a hard nut to swallow, but the deal that the people who got those benefits made was such a good one that it eventually killed the golden goose. One of the first things (after the shareholder value is liquidated) that GM needs to be cut loose from is a significant portion of those pension liabilities.
 
Years ago GM bought short term labor peace by giving away massive unsustainable pension benefits. Those pension benefits are now essentially worthless. It is a hard nut to swallow, but the deal that the people who got those benefits made was such a good one that it eventually killed the golden goose. One of the first things (after the shareholder value is liquidated) that GM needs to be cut loose from is a significant portion of those pension liabilities.
What about the people who are currently living on those benefits, the ones they went on strike for (correct me if I'm wrong on that) and worked for years to attain?
 
What about the people who are currently living on those benefits, the ones they went on strike for (correct me if I'm wrong on that) and worked for years to attain?


They get stiffed.

Or stuffed, take your pick.

Oh, and welcome to the real world.
 
I see that GM continues to dangle in the wind.

The government gave them enough money to keep them alive for a few more months without any of the stakeholders being forced to make the kinds of concessions necessary for GM to become a sustainable enterprise again.

All the executives and board members that scammed so successfully to burn up bond holder and stock holder equity to keep themselves well stocked in massive salaries and bonuses while they were doing it are still in place.

And now GM wants more money. No surprise there.

What might turn out to be a bit of a surprise at least for me is that the Obama administration might actually force stakeholders to make significant concessions before they give GM a few more bucks. My own sense of it is that real bankruptcy (at least chapter 11) is the only thing that is going to force the necessary concessions.

Years ago GM bought short term labor peace by giving away massive unsustainable pension benefits. Those pension benefits are now essentially worthless. It is a hard nut to swallow, but the deal that the people who got those benefits made was such a good one that it eventually killed the golden goose. One of the first things (after the shareholder value is liquidated) that GM needs to be cut loose from is a significant portion of those pension liabilities.

That's not quite fair. GM was a very profitable business, and the workers wanted a share of that. GM management offered them pensions instead, putting off the problem for the next generation of managers to deal with. US cars were very cheap in world terms, and very good value.
 

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