Hubert Cumberdale
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- Sep 18, 2008
- Messages
- 1,141
On the other hand the bombing of factories didn't exactly hinder the production, actually the war-production in Germany increased steadily until late 1944 and it was material shortage that in the end halted production, NOT bombing.
Well this is the problem with analysing the results of an operation. We cant do it in a scientifically controlled manner without travelling back in time and having a re-run sans area bombing.
To address the point - Its important to remember that the RAF's bombing effort didnt really take off (literally as well as figuratively) until the Cologne raid in May 1942. Up until then, most raids had been a hundred or so twin-engined medium bombers Wellingtons dropping their bombs in random fields. May have irked some Belgian turnip farmers but hardly did much damage to the German economy.
It was only really in 1943 that regular large scale raids with heavies (Lancasters and Halifaxes) became possible. This is directly relevant to the fact that "war-production in Germany increased steadily until late 1944" If it had been possible to stage such raids as early as 1940, who knows what would have happened to German industrial production for the remainder of the war.
Also, its often stated that "German city X was bombed in May and by July, 80% of production had been restored" as a way of poo-pooing the effect of a raid. However what would have happened if there had been no raid? The production rate by July would have been maybe 110%? So when saying "war-production in Germany increased steadily until late 1944" we also need to ask how much more production would have increased by if no raids had taken place.
Against all of this needs to be weighed the cost. I read somwhere that Bomber Command constituted 5% of British personell but 25% of casualties. Aircrew, particularly pilots and navigators were Britain's best and brightest. Their loss cost the war effort dear. Also, a 4-engined heavy was an expensive piece of kit. It had four Merlins for a start. How many tanks, how many corvettes could you build for the price of one night's bomber losses?
Perhaps these resources would have been better spent eslewhere. I guess we'll never know.
Thanks for your time.
Last edited: