Homeopathy - I am ready for open challenge

[Mojo]

placebo, just sugar pills...without alcohol mix I prefer.

You can't choose what the placebo will be without knowing what the remedy is. The two must be identical in every way except that one has been prepared as a homeopathic remedy. If the remedy is just sugar pills with no alcohol, then your prefered placebo would be fine. On the other hand, if your remedy is an alcohol solution, your placebo must be as well.

An important point about the sugar pills: they are prepared by dropping a potentised liquid preparation onto them and allowing it to evaporate. Is it possible that this could give the surface of the pills a slightly different appearance than that of blank pills that have not had liquid dropped onto them?

To avoid any possibility of muntadev2in simply identifying which pills have been wet at some stage, we need to make sure that the "placebo" pills have had the same solvent dropped onto them as used for the remedy.

 

[Mojo]

medicine must be mixed with sugar pills in presence of a homeopath.... you can keep him with u... till the end day of test.

The test will take 5 days. Are you proposing that this homeopath be held incommunicado for almost a week? I don't think this is likely to be feasible.

 

[Ocelot]

The test will take 5 days. Are you proposing that this homeopath be held incommunicado for almost a week? I don't think this is likely to be feasible.

At least six days, we will also need at least one unblinded test, we've yet to hear back from Dr Kumar if he would like more.

It's feasible, juries have such conditions imposed upon them regularly. However it is expensive. Since Dr Kumar would be footing the accomodation and catering bill for both the homeopath and the required observer, such a set up may not be in his best interests. In fact it might prove to be cheaper to invest in or hire more temperature sensors so that the 10 trials required can be accomplished that much sooner.

However as Linda correctly pointed out above it is not informaiton about the homeopathic preparation which much be kept from Dr Kumar but the blinding information.

If Dr Kumar can agree to a blinding procedure that only requires the presence of an observer appointed by the testers (on camera for later verifaction, of course) then the problem disappears.

I am sensitive to Dr Kumars needs to have the remedies and placebos handled only by those competant to do so but I think a way round can be found.

Under observation the appointed homeopath prepares a 200C solution of each of two solutions provided to him, they are labelled A and B. The homeopath isn't told which solution is a source for homeopathic remedies as specified by Dr Kumar and which is a dummy provided by the testers. (though depending on the source solution Dr Kumar specifies, this may be obvious, we'll examine that obstacle if and when we come to it - though first thought is that making that blind may not be necessary and second thought is that one homepath can potentitize the solutions up to 30 C, these could be blinded and passed to a second homeopth who potentizes it the rest of the way)

20 pill pots are provided, each is has a label tag numbered 1 to 20 attached by a plastic band stretched over the neck. On the toss of a coin the appointed homeopath prepares a pill from either the 200C A or 200C B solutions. The observer records which pots contains A pills and which contain B pills. The post are sealed.

Both leave.

A second observer enters. They have a bag containing either 20 sticky labels marked 1 to 20 and another 20 tokens also marked 1 to 20. They pick one label at random from the bag and one token from the other bag. They apply the label to the pot with the tag corresponding to the random token. That token is discarded. The numbers are recorded and the tag removed from that pot. This is repeated for the remaining pots.

At no point does this observer handle the pills themselves.

If Dr Kumar would be happy with such a blinding procedure then there would be no need to cloister the homeopath.

If not then there are still other options. There may be qualified homeopaths (or ex homeopaths) that the JREF would be happy to perform the blinding, secure in the knowledge that they would no collude with Dr Kumar. And I'm not just talking about the many members of this forum who have diploma mill qualifications in homeopathy but anyone from Dr Edzard Ernzt down to less recognisable names.

Dr Kumar need sto let us know exactly what sort of qualification he expects from the person who is to prepare these solutions. Would for example a current solid belief in the efficacy of homeopathy be required?

 

[Mojo]

At least six days, we will also need at least one unblinded test, we've yet to hear back from Dr Kumar if he would like more.

It's feasible, juries have such conditions imposed upon them regularly. However it is expensive. Since Dr Kumar would be footing the accomodation and catering bill for both the homeopath and the required observer, such a set up may not be in his best interests. In fact it might prove to be cheaper to invest in or hire more temperature sensors so that the 10 trials required can be accomplished that much sooner.

However as Linda correctly pointed out above it is not informaiton about the homeopathic preparation which much be kept from Dr Kumar but the blinding information.

I may be wrong on this, but I was assuming that when he posted "medicine must be mixed with sugar pills in presence of a homeopath" muntadev2in was referring to the blinding procedure (i.e. the randomising of the potentised pills with the blank sugar pills) rather than the preparation of the remedy. If this is the case it would be necessary for the homoeopath to be under observation at all times to make sure no attempt to communicate with muntadev2in is made, as any homoeopath will obviously have a vested interest in an outcome showing that remedies are different from placebo.

If they are to be present while the remedy is being prepared, it will also be necessary to avoid any possibility that they could adulterate either remedy or placebo so as to make it identifiable, again because of their vested interest in a positive outcome.

muntadev2in, do you mean that the homoeopath must supervise the manufacture of the remedy, or that they must witness the blinding procedure (or both)?

 

[muntadev2in]

At least six days, we will also need at least one unblinded test, we've yet to hear back from Dr Kumar if he would like more.

It's feasible, juries have such conditions imposed upon them regularly. However it is expensive. Since Dr Kumar would be footing the accomodation and catering bill for both the homeopath and the required observer, such a set up may not be in his best interests. In fact it might prove to be cheaper to invest in or hire more temperature sensors so that the 10 trials required can be accomplished that much sooner.

This will be the best.... I will try to get some more sensors with multi channel datalogger. Then It can possible to conduct exp in a single day with in 1/2 hr to 1 hr.

I will not believe hand made preparations will have tht much efficasy over mechine stokes. that also I hv tested 200c n over potencies can produce rapid change in physiological variabiity.

preparation up to 200c hand made is difficult. one possible thing is, we have to go to a homeopathic pharmacy and get prepare a HM in presence of independent observer qualified homeopath (who know the method of HM preparation, Who studied the homeopathic pharmacy at bachlor level)

 

[steenkh]

preparation up to 200c hand made is difficult. one possible thing is, we have to go to a homeopathic pharmacy and get prepare a HM in presence of independent observer qualified homeopath (who know the method of HM preparation, Who studied the homeopathic pharmacy at bachlor level)

That sounds reasonable. At the pharmacy it would be possible for the test officials to obtain the same stock of solvent, and the same bottles for the placebo. Whether the HM is made by machine or by hand is not important as long as you feel confident with it.

 

[JWideman]

Unless I misunderstand something, isn't a sugar pill dissolved in water detectably different from homeopathic medicine? The placebo should be the same substance as the homeopathic medicine, which is to say water.

 

[Mojo]

Unless I misunderstand something, isn't a sugar pill dissolved in water detectably different from homeopathic medicine? The placebo should be the same substance as the homeopathic medicine, which is to say water.

Homoeopathic medicines are usually administered in the form of sugar pills which have had the homoeopathic water dropped onto them and allowed to evaporate. The placebo the pills will be compared to will be "blank" sugar pills, although as I've observed above it might be necessary to drop "blank" water onto them in the same way as the remedy pills have been prepared in case this procedure causes any change in their surface appearance.

 

[Pixel42]

Unless I misunderstand something, isn't a sugar pill dissolved in water detectably different from homeopathic medicine? The placebo should be the same substance as the homeopathic medicine, which is to say water.

AIUI a drop of the solution is put on the sugar pill and allowed to evaporate. For the medicine it's a solution that's been homeopathically prepared, for the placebo it's the untreated solution. As long as the solution itself is the same (either alcohol or water) the resulting pills have no detectable difference between them. Unless, of course, Dr Kumar can detect one with his skin sensors.

 

[steenkh]

Homoeopathic medicines are usually administered in the form of sugar pills which have had the homoeopathic water dropped onto them and allowed to evaporate. The placebo the pills will be compared to will be "blank" sugar pills, although as I've observed above it might be necessary to drop "blank" water onto them in the same way as the remedy pills have been prepared in case this procedure causes any change in their surface appearance.

Perhaps it is also important to know if Dr. Kumar is aware of homoeopathic "grafting". According to this theory, which I understand goes back to Hahnemann himself, homoeopathic pills stored close to blank pills will transfer their magical properties to the blanks, effectively creating more homoeopathic pills. If Dr. Kumar thinks this could be a risk, it will also be necessary to keep all pill bottles (or other bottles: grafting can be used with liquid remedies too), separated by a sufficient distance to prevent grafting.

 

[Ocelot]

This will be the best.... I will try to get some more sensors with multi channel datalogger. Then It can possible to conduct exp in a single day with in 1/2 hr to 1 hr.

That would be good. I seem to remember you saying your datalogger had room for ten inputs. We'd still need to do an unblinded test the day before but we could blind some samples the next day and would only have to keep the blinding infomration secure for a the hour maximum it'd take for the subsequent test.

I will not believe hand made preparations will have tht much efficasy over mechine stokes. that also I hv tested 200c n over potencies can produce rapid change in physiological variabiity.

Yes it'd be best to test as close as possible to what you've already confirmed for yourself. It's your claim after all. However to qualify for the MDC your claim must be paranormal. After all I can't claim that I can eat three shredded wheat for breakfast and expect a million when I prove it.
In your case, for your claim to qualify we'll need to demonstrate that the machine does indeed produce solutions well beyond the molar limit of dilution. Due to the way solutions cling to the sides of a container, this wouldn't be the case if, for example, only a single container was used, repeatedly being shaken up, habving 99% emptied out and then toppped up with water again for another round.

If that's the case we have allready have a possible explanation for your findings - your test subjects are reacting to the actual pressence of, for example sulphur, rather than the water's paranormal memory of sulphur.

To be honest with you, I wasn't aware that machines were used in the preparation of your homeopathic remedies. Would it be possible to find out more about the machine.

Does the machine produce just solutions or does it take the process all the way through to pills?

preparation up to 200c hand made is difficult. one possible thing is, we have to go to a homeopathic pharmacy and get prepare a HM in presence of independent observer qualified homeopath (who know the method of HM preparation, Who studied the homeopathic pharmacy at bachlor level)

Glad to have your requirements for the independant homeopath. I guess a former homeopath and current skeptic like Dr Edzard Ernzt for example would be acceptable to you then.

However if the preparation right the way through to pill production is to be done by machine then we may not need an independant homeopath - so long as you're happy with the sort of blinding procedure I mentioned above.

 

[Mojo]

To be honest with you, I wasn't aware that machines were used in the preparation of your homeopathic remedies. Would it be possible to find out more about the machine.

They certainly are for high dilutions such as the 200C that muntadev2in proposes using. See here, for example.

High Potencies
In 1994 after two years of research and development, Helios was proud to be the first British company to have its own high potency succussion machine. To make a high potency by hand would take weeks or months and is extremely labour intensive. In designing the Helios potentiser we have adhered as closely as possible to the human arm action of dilution and succussion "against a hard but elastic object" (aphorism 270 ) as per Hahnemann's instructions. The machine repeatedly empties and refills in a single vial (Korsakov method) until the desired potency is reached, the whole process being computer-controlled to ensure stability and accuracy.

Note, however, that these machines invariably seem to use the "Korsakov Method" (otherwise known as "rinsing"), in which a single vial is repeatedly emptied, refilled, and succussed, and it is assumed that exactly one hundredth of the solution remains in the vial each time. Whether this would have the potential for contamination of the sample may need to be investigated.

See here for a description of the Hahnemanian and Korsakovian methods of dilution.

 

[Ocelot]

They certainly are for high dilutions such as the 200C that muntadev2in proposes using. See here, for example.


Note, however, that these machines invariably seem to use the "Korsakov Method" (otherwise known as "rinsing"), in which a single vial is repeatedly emptied, refilled, and succussed, and it is assumed that exactly one hundredth of the solution remains in the vial each time. Whether this would have the potential for contamination of the sample may need to be investigated.

See here for a description of the Hahnemanian and Korsakovian methods of dilution.

Ah this might prove a sticking point with the JREF. I rememebr that in the Homeopathy test for the Horizon TV programme, Randi was very careful to specify that the containers not be reused so as to prevent contamination.

Do we think that a 200C solution of say Sulphur produced by this method might contain detectable levels of sulphur?

If so then we might not have a paranormal claim to test.

Dr Kumar,

Have you done any tests on homeopathic remedies prepared through the more traditional method of using a clean fresh container every time?

 

[Mojo]

Have you done any tests on homeopathic remedies prepared through the more traditional method of using a clean fresh container every time?

I would doubt that small amounts of contaminants would have the effects on temperature that muntadev2in describes. However, they might be detectable in other more mundane ways.

 

[Rolfe]

Homoeopathic medicines are usually administered in the form of sugar pills which have had the homoeopathic water dropped onto them and allowed to evaporate. The placebo the pills will be compared to will be "blank" sugar pills, although as I've observed above it might be necessary to drop "blank" water onto them in the same way as the remedy pills have been prepared in case this procedure causes any change in their surface appearance.

While I agree that using stock sugar pills moistened with stock solvent for the placebo sham would almost certainly be perfectly OK, I have to admit a preference for doing it properly.

By properly, I mean to prepare the placebo solution in exactly the same way as the remedy, with the only difference being that the placebo has no mother tincture added at the beginning. It is succussed and diluted and "potentised" in exactly the same way, otherwise.

Note Rustum Roy's experiment. He tested an unpotentised blank (stock solvent) and a potentised blank (solvent that had gone through the entire rigmarole, only excepting the presence of the mother tincture at the beginning). He allegedly found significant differences. I would like to be sure that what is being demonstrated is actually related to the presence of the mother tincture, and not some esoteric property of the shaking and diluting.

Rolfe.

 

[petre]

While I agree that using stock sugar pills moistened with stock solvent for the placebo sham would almost certainly be perfectly OK, I have to admit a preference for doing it properly.

I'm pretty sure the JREF is comfortable allowing an applicant to test an unsuccessed solvent vs. the homeopathic preperation. While the extra step of successing the placebo would make for a more impressive demonstration, I think we're fine leaving that out of the protocol. My standard for adding something to a protocol is always based on making it more likely JREF will accept it

 

[Ocelot]

We'll have to see. On the test for the Horizon Programme the placebo was succussed.

 

[JWideman]

Okay, now that my misunderstanding has been cleared up, moving on...

I don't see the point of succussing the placebo. Certainly detecting the difference between succussed and non-succussed water would be a paranormal claim all by itself.

 

[muntadev2in]

my concentration nw is on getting multichannel datalogger with some more sensors.... and getting sufficient time to conduct experiments with HM. As per ur suggestions I will test the medicines and placebo in all aspects

 

[GzuzKryzt]

So far, so good. I would very much like you to take the MDC, muntadev2in. Keep up the good work.