Anthopogenic Global Warming Myth or Real ?

[CapelDodger]

It wouldn't matter in this context would it?

It would be shiny, but googling "alaska foxnews summer weather 2008 -palin" the best I get is http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Jul08/0,4670,GrowingGlaciers,00.html

"MOUNT SHASTA, Calif. — Global warming is shrinking glaciers all over the world, but the seven tongues of ice creeping down Mount Shasta's flanks are a rare exception: They are the only long-established glaciers in the lower 48 states that are growing."

which is from July and isn't even about Alaska. So I guess FoxNews (and, by extension, Rupert Murdoch) is inside the conspiracy to suppress the good news from Alaska.

 

[mhaze]

So, nope, I'm not conjuring weather at all.
....

So you are conjuring what, climate?

Woo Call on Capeldodger!!!

 

[TrueSceptic]

The Beeb is just as maligned by the opposite British wingnuts, as Conservative/Establishment/Anti-union, etc. mhaze and the like don't pick up on that.

Yes, but I doubt that few outside the UK have any idea about that. For me, the fact that the BBC is attacked by extremists from both sides means that they have probably got it about right.

I'd like an answer from mhaze, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Good luck with that.

 

[Tubbythin]

This is a forum about science.

So why don't you take your conspiracy theories to the conspiracy theory forum?

 

[mhaze]

CapelDodger[/b] ]
....When my reasoned prediction is confirmed you can claim it was just a " lucky guess".

(I'm not predicting weather, of course, I'm predicting a sustained El Nino in the next two-to-seven years.)

Yep, you are just conjuring weather from the bubbles in the beer. And I still can't fathom why you'd think anyone would care about yer prophesies.

This is a forum about science.

CapelDodger[/b] ]
So, nope, I'm not conjuring weather at all.
....

So you are conjuring what, climate?

Woo Call on Capeldodger!!!

So why don't you take your conspiracy theories to the conspiracy theory forum?

A misdirective protective shield do you raise?

To protect a Sylvia Browne of alarmist climate prophecy?

BWAHAHAHA!!!

Again, this is a forum about science.

 

[Tubbythin]

A misdirective protective shield do you raise?

Erm, nope.

To protect a Sylvia Browne of alarmist climate prophecy?

Hmm. I'm pretty sure that sentence doesn't make any sense.

BWAHAHAHA!!!

How old are you? 4?

 

[CapelDodger]

Yes, but I doubt that few outside the UK have any idea about that. For me, the fact that the BBC is attacked by extremists from both sides means that they have probably got it about right.

Exactly. The BBC is nobody's butt-monkey. It's an institution which values integrity above all else, and woe betide anyone who tries to change that.

(Not everybody appreciates integrity, of course, and some can't even grasp the concept.)

I don't expect an explanation for mhaze's prejudice, but I reckon the licence-fee is at the root of it. In the right-wing 'Murrican weird-sphere that (along with the NHS, of course) makes the UK a totalitarian state, and the BBC merely its tool. I'm sure you've come across it during your own ventures into that weird-sphere .

 

[CapelDodger]

Erm, nope.


Hmm. I'm pretty sure that sentence doesn't make any sense.


How old are you? 4?

There's a lingering suspicion that mhaze is in reality a Turing Test Candidate.

 

[CapelDodger]

So you are conjuring what, climate?

Woo Call on Capeldodger!!!

I'm not conjuring anything, I'm simply predicting that there will be an extended El Nino in the next two-to-seven years. When it happens I won't claim credit for the El Nino, I'll just be smug about the prediction.

It's not just a guess, of course. The recent La Nina was quite strong, and the way it nipped off the 2006-7 El Nino was a bit odd. La Nina's stack up warm water in the Western Pacific (literally stack up; sea-level is a metre or two higher over there at the moment), which is an unstable arrangement. It's only maintained by the trade-winds, so all it takes is for those to slacken for a month or so and all that warm water comes slopping back East. All that warm water on the surface tends to weaken the trade-winds further, and you've got yourself an El Nino.

It's practically a statistical certainty that the trade-winds will so slacken in the next two-to-seven years, and it seems unlikely that a La Nina will step in to save the day again. So we'll have a full-blown El Nino for eighteen months or so (and a global temperature that will put '98 in the shade because it will be starting from a higher baseline).

 

[CapelDodger]

Yep, you are just conjuring weather from the bubbles in the beer. And I still can't fathom why you'd think anyone would care about yer prophesies.

They are my predictions.

Is anybody out there interested in my predictions, and my reasoning? I'll keep making them anyway, for my own satisfaction.

This is a forum about science.

And yet here you are.

So you are conjuring what, climate?

Woo Call on Capeldodger!!!

Deja vu all over again.

 

[mhaze]

I'm not conjuring anything, I'm simply predicting that there will be an extended El Nino in the next two-to-seven years. When it happens I won't claim credit for the El Nino, I'll just be smug about the prediction.

It's not just a guess, of course. The recent La Nina was quite strong, and the way it nipped off the 2006-7 El Nino was a bit odd. La Nina's stack up warm water in the Western Pacific (literally stack up; sea-level is a metre or two higher over there at the moment), which is an unstable arrangement. It's only maintained by the trade-winds, so all it takes is for those to slacken for a month or so and all that warm water comes slopping back East. All that warm water on the surface tends to weaken the trade-winds further, and you've got yourself an El Nino.

It's practically a statistical certainty that the trade-winds will so slacken in the next two-to-seven years, and it seems unlikely that a La Nina will step in to save the day again. So we'll have a full-blown El Nino for eighteen months or so (and a global temperature that will put '98 in the shade because it will be starting from a higher baseline).

I'll accept this , as not woo - it at least is a rationale for a WAG.

Which is what it is, but nothing wrong with that - at least you've provided the basis for the Belief.

 

[DogB]

I'm not conjuring anything, I'm simply predicting that there will be an extended El Nino in the next two-to-seven years. When it happens I won't claim credit for the El Nino, I'll just be smug about the prediction.

It's not just a guess, of course. The recent La Nina was quite strong, and the way it nipped off the 2006-7 El Nino was a bit odd. La Nina's stack up warm water in the Western Pacific (literally stack up; sea-level is a metre or two higher over there at the moment), which is an unstable arrangement. It's only maintained by the trade-winds, so all it takes is for those to slacken for a month or so and all that warm water comes slopping back East. All that warm water on the surface tends to weaken the trade-winds further, and you've got yourself an El Nino.

It's practically a statistical certainty that the trade-winds will so slacken in the next two-to-seven years, and it seems unlikely that a La Nina will step in to save the day again. So we'll have a full-blown El Nino for eighteen months or so (and a global temperature that will put '98 in the shade because it will be starting from a higher baseline).

Considering these events occur (and have always occurred) every 2-7 years and last 1-2 years this seems a pretty obvious bet. Don't know about hotter than 98 however. It would have to be a pretty big one to get there.

 

[mhaze]

Considering these events occur (and have always occurred) every 2-7 years and last 1-2 years this seems a pretty obvious bet. Don't know about hotter than 98 however. It would have to be a pretty big one to get there.

Except that we are going now into the cool phase of the PDO, in which La Nina dominates. Thus Capeldodger (like all gullible gamblers) bets against the house; and against scientific understanding.

Apparently he strongly feels that the cumulative effects of the "AGW" will overwhelm or fundamentally alter natural cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

 

[DogB]

Except that we are going now into the cool phase of the PDO, in which La Nina dominates. Thus Capeldodger (like all gullible gamblers) bets against the house; and against scientific understanding.

Apparently he strongly feels that the cumulative effects of the "AGW" will overwhelm or fundamentally alter natural cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Do you have a reference to back up your assertion that ENSO is influenced by the PDO? I was under the impression that was still very unclear. I will accept that there will be an effect on severity of events but I'm questioning whether it will affect the frequency.

I still think capeldodger is backing a near certainty. The likelihood of no El Nino in the next 7 years would be fairly low I would think.

 

[Pixel42]

Is anybody out there interested in my predictions, and my reasoning?

* Puts hand up *

 

[TrueSceptic]

They are my predictions.

Is anybody out there interested in my predictions, and my reasoning? I'll keep making them anyway, for my own satisfaction.

I can't imagine why any person discussing climate change here would not have at least some interest in the timing of the next El Nino. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, and 2-7 years seems highly probable.

Why mhaze reacts in the way he does is a mystery.

 

[TrueSceptic]

Except that we are going now into the cool phase of the PDO, in which La Nina dominates. Thus Capeldodger (like all gullible gamblers) bets against the house; and against scientific understanding.

So you claim, on slim evidence. CD made a simple prediction based on past events; what are you expecting? Care to put money behind whatever it is?

Apparently he strongly feels that the cumulative effects of the "AGW" will overwhelm or fundamentally alter natural cycles such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

No at all. He merely expects ENSO to do what it has done in the past, regardless of AGW.

 

[mhaze]

Do you have a reference to back up your assertion that ENSO is influenced by the PDO? I was under the impression that was still very unclear. I will accept that there will be an effect on severity of events but I'm questioning whether it will affect the frequency.

I still think capeldodger is backing a near certainty. The likelihood of no El Nino in the next 7 years would be fairly low I would think.

This is a misunderstanding either of the facts or of what I've said.

Just as the existence of La Nina and/or El Nino is based on calculations and statistics for extended periods of time (6 months plus), the existence of PDO and the change from warm to cool is calculated from the past history of ENSO.

I assume you understand:

1. Nasa has stated we are entering the cool phase of PDO, perhaps 30 years in length
2. In the cool phase of PDO La Nina predominates

Thus my comment that Capeldodger bets against the house.

 

[Pixel42]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012

The cool water anomaly in the center of the image shows the lingering effect of the year-old La Niña. However, the much broader area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed).

Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. “This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”

(My bold).

So they're not predicting that El Ninos will stop, just that their effect will be diminished. So CD's prediction that there will be one in the next 2-7 years doesn't seem that outrageous, though his apparent expectation that it will be as, or more, powerful as the one in 1998 is on shakier ground if this proves to be correct.

 

[CapelDodger]

So they're not predicting that El Ninos will stop, just that their effect will be diminished. So CD's prediction that there will be one in the next 2-7 years doesn't seem that outrageous, though his apparent expectation that it will be as, or more, powerful as the one in 1998 is on shakier ground if this proves to be correct.

No, what I expect is that the global temperature will exceed '98, even with a weaker effect. The reason being that it will be starting from a higher baseline. You'll recall that in early 2007 the Hadley Centre predicted that if the El Nino conditions persisted, that year would take the record from '98. That didn't depend on the strength of the El Nino, just that it hung around.

The '98 El Nino was remarkably strong, and I don't expect anything like a repeat. What we'll likely see is a moderate El Nino exceeding a strong one, and the deathknell of "global warming stopped in '98". Or at least the headless phase of that particular chicken .

In the meantime, Solar Cycle 24 will or won't have done this or that, either of which will prove whatever in retrospect.